Challenge: Delay WWI for as long as possible.

It's often said that if the Archduke hadn't been assasinated on that fateful day, there would have still been a major conflict in Western Europe due to the rise of Nationalism, the alliance system etc.

How can it be postponed? Bonus points for avoiding it completely or having the resulting war smaller than OTL's. PODs after 1900, please.
 
It's often said that if the Archduke hadn't been assasinated on that fateful day, there would have still been a major conflict in Western Europe due to the rise of Nationalism, the alliance system etc.

How can it be postponed? Bonus points for avoiding it completely or having the resulting war smaller than OTL's. PODs after 1900, please.

I don't think it is possible to avoid it completely, with the alliance system the way it was. There just would have been some other provocation.
 
I think it is possible to avoid it, or at least a Great War per se.
It'd just be very unlikely, as almost every crisis would have to be diplomatically resolved. The most likely thing is that sooner or later that fails, and we have a Great War of some sort (it might not be that similar to our Great War, though), but it isn't inevitable.
 
If the Archduke isn't assassinated, that would of course delay it. Another option, which I don't really think is all that impossible, is having a falling out between Germany and Austria (not impossible, but very unlikely, I know). Without German backing, either Austria doesn't even contemplate taking on Austria at all, or if they do and Russia still jumps in, without Germany in the war, it would still be a major conflict but not WW1 as they all jump on Austria collectively.
 
If the Archduke isn't assassinated, that would of course delay it. Another option, which I don't really think is all that impossible, is having a falling out between Germany and Austria (not impossible, but very unlikely, I know). Without German backing, either Austria doesn't even contemplate taking on Austria at all, or if they do and Russia still jumps in, without Germany in the war, it would still be a major conflict but not WW1 as they all jump on Austria collectively.
Hmm...would it be possible to have a pro-Austrian monarch installed in Serbia? Purge of the Black Hand supporters? That could delay the war for quite some time, you'd need another casus belli.
 
The Archduke lives. The war does not start on schedule. Now, what about the impact of the Russian revolution? Without a simultaneous war in western Europe, that conflict can move to center stage.

Suppose the "great war" is delayed until after 1920. WWII might get butterflied away and the Great War really will be the "war to end all wars." Any good details for this type of scenario? Also, every year of delay brings higher technology to the war that eventually ensues.
 
Once you've delayed it past about 1916 then you've got quite a long period of detente, as from that point the Germans think that Russian mobilisation will be too fast for them to defeat France and Russia in turn. After a decade or two of this, then Russian industrialisation will have reached the point that Germany dosen't dare fight both it and France at once. Also, the growth of democratic forces in Russia, and more particualrly Germany will also act as a stabilising influence.

If you reach te 30s then the bullet will have been dodged.
 
Once you've delayed it past about 1916 then you've got quite a long period of detente, as from that point the Germans think that Russian mobilisation will be too fast for them to defeat France and Russia in turn. After a decade or two of this, then Russian industrialisation will have reached the point that Germany dosen't dare fight both it and France at once. Also, the growth of democratic forces in Russia, and more particualrly Germany will also act as a stabilising influence.

If you reach te 30s then the bullet will have been dodged.
Can the Russian revolution be avoided? Will a compromise be reached or will the Tsar brutally crush any revolts?
 
Once you've delayed it past about 1916 then you've got quite a long period of detente, as from that point the Germans think that Russian mobilisation will be too fast for them to defeat France and Russia in turn. After a decade or two of this, then Russian industrialisation will have reached the point that Germany dosen't dare fight both it and France at once.
You may witness Russo-German union by then with A-H in tow (union of three eagles). Russo-French alliance was a chancy thing, by and large. There were no major conflict areas between Germany and Russia to really justify "enemy of my enemy is my friend" alliance between Russia and France. Quite opposite, Germany used to be Russia's major trade partner and source of know-how.

Can the Russian revolution be avoided? Will a compromise be reached or will the Tsar brutally crush any revolts?
Revolution (or very radical reforms) is unavoidable. there're just too many internal problem within society and between society and authorities. Now, even "crushed" revolution can trigger reforms (see 1905-1907). It is quite possible that if WWI is avoided Imperial Russia will go through major crisis sometime in 1920s, but Communist plague could be avoided.
 
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