Challenge: Delay WW2 as much as possible

[Zaius]

1923. 1975. I WIN.

Well, not really I guess, since Britain is involved, but indirectly due to the civil war.

This is fairly easy, kill off Hitler during the war, and have a more successful Stresemann bring Europe closer together out of mutual antagonism towards the Soviet Union and the need
for greater economic cooperation. Subsequently have both the Soviets and Europeans develop nuclear weapons within several years of each other, maintaining MAD for decades.

Until early 2013, when an Able Archer style malfunction leads to one side believing the other has launched a first strike, and there's no Stanislav Petrov to calm things down.

Yep, there's a huge amount of possibilities. Perhaps if OP specified some constraints for this hypothetical WWII this would be more of a challenge.

UK avoids or delays entry into WW1

Result being early defeat of France and German victory in the East.

Best case - assume French defeat in early 1915 followed by relatively lenient peace terms (say Belgium puppetised, minor losses in Lorraine to Germany, possibly some gains in Africa and Polynesia for the
Germans). UK acts as intermediary in arranging peace terms.

Russia and Germany / Austria go head to head with OTL result. Russian revolution confined to rump Russia.

Communism is ideaology of choice in post war Europe - contained (barely) in France (civil war?) and revanchist communist Russia rises in East based around Ural resources. Ukraine eventually slips out of
Austrian control (perhaps when Austria is destabilised by leftist nationalist supported by Russia). Anschluss with Russia. Nuclear weapons discovered

Multipolar Cold War along the OTL USSR / Poland / Romania borders with brushfire proxy wars in Souterh Europe (Greece, Italy, Spain)

No WW2

Whenever the Russian and German empires fight the result is always OTL: one of my 'favorite' cliches. I don't see how WWI can continue long after an early of France. Russia cannot hope for victory now that France is gone, and can put the blame on French surrender monkeys, so it has no reason not to seek peace. Nor does Germany have any real reason to keep fighting. Even in OTL it did not ask for Ukraine during the first round of negotiations in 1917, and only occupied it to put an end to the fighting. Only then, when it already had Ukraine under its control, did Germany decide that it might as well keep it.

Well I guess I am breaking the rules by not using a 1914 POD but a 1939 POD instead.

Delaying WWII is easy - Poland roles over and gives in to Germany's demands in 1939, then what? Or if you want to be a little more out of the box, in the summer of 1939 there is a pro-Nazi coup in Poland and
Poland becomes Nazi Germany's first "minor ally" before Bulgaria, Hungary, Finland, and Romania.

Poland might indeed give in, but a pro-Nazi coup is ASB under any circumstances. If you want coups, the closest you could get is a pro-German coup (meant to avoid war with Germany, not in support of Nazi ideology), and even that requires PoDs well before 1939.

 

[Derek Pullem]

I don't see how WWI can continue long after an early of France. Russia cannot hope for victory now that France is gone, and can put the blame on French surrender monkeys, so it has no reason not to seek peace. Nor does Germany have any real reason to keep fighting.

Yes I agree - weakest part of the scenario. But as a counterpoint, if Germany had beaten France why would they want to stop against Russia? Russia would try to peace out but I guess I'd have to invoke the German annexation of Congress Poland as a new war aim leading to the communist revolution (1905 analogue)

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

1914 - FF never goes to Sarajevo (as Willy makes a longer visit to Konopiste in sumemr 1914)

1916 FJ dies FF becomes Emperor

1917 - 3rd Balkans war sparked by Bulgaria vs Serbia - OE joins on Serbias side (Wanting some Territory lost in the First Balkans war back), greece also joins Serbia.

A-H fearing Serbian expansion mobilizes

Russia Mobilizes

Germany mobilizes

France mobilizes

After Serbian probes into Bosnia (later discovered that it were militias under Black hand orders) Austria DOWs Serbia (made clear intentions are not conquering just restoring sovereignity and possibly resotoring status quo on Balkans

Russian DOW on Austria

Germany holds consultations with UK for avoiding war.

France DOWs Germany

Germany DOW Russia and France

French advance halted on the Rhein /Saar/Mosel rivers - main force on Eastern Front (this keeps UK out of the game)

A-H goes on defensive in the East - knocks out serbia as most Serbbian troops fight Bulgaria.

Germany and russia conduct several big battles, but ultimately german both west and east front come to a standstill.

After Serbian defeat OE switches sides and attacks greece to reclaim some Islands. Greece asks for Italian help. Italy DOWs on Austria and OE.

War drags on until 1920 - first white then Red revolution in russia

All paricipans become increasingly exhausted while Britain (and US) make huge profits by selling to both sides.

Early 1921 Russia drops out of war - giving minor concessions to Turkey and agrees on creating an independent Polish state (with FF King incuding Galicia - later)

Finland and Baltic states become independent.

France agrees to peace status quo ante depite holding some parts of Germany

Italy has to give up libya and Dodecanes.

Bulgaria gets south Serbia

Serbia merged to "greater Croatia" (also ecompassing Bosnia, Dalmatia)

Hungary (inkl Transilvania + and Austria Split - FF nominally King of Hungary, but only in Name.

Kingdom of Greater Croatia + Czech Kingdom (Bohemia+Moravia - some southern German inhabited territory become independent with Habsburg FF nominally King)

Rump Austria (incl South Tirol Slovenia, Trieste, Istria) become Empire of Austria.

Habsburg monarchy dissolved, but more orderly as OTL - States develop cordial relations.

Germany exhausted.
France on last fumes
Italy grumbling

OE - despite losses strengthened internally

1921-1929 slow progress
1929 big crash
1929-1939 - troubled years

As Britain never joined relations between france and Britain slowly deteriorate France develops strong ties with Russia (as does Italy which cooperates largely with France)

1939 - nationaist coup in "republican spain" - Spanish civil war with France/Russia supporting republicans Germany supporting Nationalists/Monarchist - until 1941 republican win

1941 - Italy occupies Ethiopia

1943 Second (third) Ottoman Italian war for Libya - Ottoman Fleet sunk off Crete - Russia demans the return of Caucasus regions - OE refuses Russia DOW OE. Germany DOW Russia - France DOW Germany - Habsburg Federation DOW Russia and Italy.

Britain ends splendid siolation after multiple Italian aggression to Egypt in 1947

1948 war ends after Germany drops A-bombs on paris and Leningrad.

 

[Zaius]

But as a counterpoint, if Germany had beaten France why would they want to stop against Russia?QUOTE]

1. While it can be done, beating Russia to a bloody pulp would still cost Germany a sea of blood and a mountain of money.

2. Germany has already beaten France decisively, and presumably imposed a harsh treaty which makes France unable to assemble a strong military again. With the danger of a two-front war theoretically removed, will prolonging the war be considered necessary?

3. Everybody expected the war to be short, including a certain emperor known for making speeches about leaves and trees. Extending it will be unpopular.

 

[Deleted member 67076]

1) POD in 1914?

1914 and forward.

2) One PoD only?

Use as many as you'd like

3) Has to be a "Second World War"?

The rematch after the first world war.

One probable limit: the development of nuclear bombs. Once those are around, there won't be any more Great Power hot wars. (There might be one.)

Atomic fission, chain reactions, and the possibility of nuclear bombs were being widely discussed by OTL 1940. I don't know how long after that the Bomb can be delayed.

It's possible that some consensus prevents work on the Bomb for a while, plus the practical difficulties. But if nations are hostile enough to fight a major war, they'll break that consensus.

Can nuclear research be delayed in the interwar period?

 

[Rich Rostrom]

1914 and forward. Can nuclear research be delayed in the interwar period?

Not really. There were a lot of bright people working in a lot of different places.

OK, I'll try.

Hitler and Stalin both have fatal "accidents". (KIA)

Not sure who becomes head of USSR instead of Stalin (but not Trotsky).

Germany drifts into an authoritarian center-right regime by 1932.

USSR builds up industrial and military power.

As USSR becomes a threat, Germany is allowed partial rearmament (Reichswehr expanded from 100,000 to 500,000 men, including tanks; single-engine fighters for air defence.)

1938: USSR de facto annexes Xinjiang. Germany expands military aid to China. USSR agrees to a secret partition of China with Japan. USSR moves into Qinghai, Gansu, half of Inner Mongolia, Shensi, Sikang, Szechwan, and Tibet (fronted by Chinese People's Republic army). British forces move into Tibet to block Red troops N of Lhasa.

Soviet agents go to work in India.

Rump RoChina hangs on in south China. For want of oil that can't be paid for, Japan cuts back its forces there. RoC retakes Canton with German and British aid.

1942: USSR stages coups d'etat in Estonia and Latvia (coup in Lithuania fails).

Germany and Poland appeal to France and Britain for support against Soviet aggression, joined by Finland. Treaty of mutual defence. German army expands to 1M men.

1944: USSR cuts deals with Hungary and Bulgaria to dismember Romania. At the Vienna Conference, France, Britain, and Germany broker a peace deal. Romania surrenders Bessarabia, Transylvania, and Dobruja. Soviet agents subvert Romania.

1946: USSR occupies Romania after pro-Soviet coup. Soviet agents at work in Poland, Iran, Finland, Germany, and France.

1948: USSR launches general offensive. Main attack through Poland into Germany. French Communists to neutralize France by sabotage. USSR also provides oil to Japan for an attack on French, British, and other colonies in SE Asia and the Pacific. The Philippines are independent and there are no U.S. forces there. Also Soviet agents foment unrest in India.

WW II begins: Britain, France, Germany against USSR and Japan.

It's not great, but it does get to 1948.

 

[Edward_Elric]

*snip*

You're really overestimating the hawkishness of the Stalin-era Soviet leadership. I mean, once Uncle Joe bit the dust, along came Khrushchev and his "peaceful coexistence" doctrine. Of all the faction/opposition figureheads in the early days of the USSR, Trotsky was far and away the most adventurous in debates on foreign policy, what with his whole theory of Permanent Revolution. And that whole aspect was a key reason why his Left Opposition was sidelined and eventually purged violently as the 1920's gave way to the 30's. In the aftermath of a Civil War that involved plentiful foreign support for the losing side, Stalin, Bukharin et al were not interested in stirring up yet another international capitalist coalition against the USSR.

Also, a Soviet/Imperial Japan alliance? Haha, not after all the bad blood that's developed between the two nations, from the Russo-Japanese War to the Far Eastern Republic that was mainly propped up by Japan (as well as their continued possession of South Sakhalin). If anything, a pro-German Kuomintang in China will lead to Soviet policy in East Asia favoring more aid to the CCP.

 

[Rich Rostrom]

You're really overestimating the hawkishness of the Stalin-era Soviet leadership.

Since Stalin died early, there is no "Stalin Era".

I think that to take OTL's Soviet leadership, after Stalin's massive purges, as what Soviet leadership would have been like without those purges, is a mistake.

I mean, once Uncle Joe bit the dust, along came Khrushchev and his "peaceful coexistence" doctrine.

At that time...

There were nuclear bombs about.
The USSR was still recovering from WW II.
The USSR faced the opposition of the US.

None of those factors would apply in 1930-1950.

Of all the faction/opposition figureheads in the early days of the USSR, Trotsky was far and away the most adventurous in debates on foreign policy, what with his whole theory of Permanent Revolution. And that whole aspect was a key reason why his Left Opposition was sidelined and eventually purged violently as the 1920's gave way to the 30's.

Point taken, but the main reason for all the purges was Stalin eliminating potential rivals.

In the aftermath of a Civil War that involved plentiful foreign support for the losing side, Stalin, Bukharin et al were not interested in stirring up yet another international capitalist coalition against the USSR.

In 1920-1925, no. By 1935, maybe. Again, one can't generalize from actions or conditions in a particular situation to a very different situation.

Also, a Soviet/Imperial Japan alliance? Haha, not after all the bad blood that's developed between the two nations...

Yeah, I suppose it's as ASB as a Hitler-Stalin Pact.

 

[katchen]

POD 9/28/1938
Instead of acquiescing to the annexing of Czechslovakia, Neville Chamberlain issues an ultimatum to Hitler that any further moves into Czechslovakia will mean war with the UK and France. Daldadier concurs. General Halder and his coconspirators move ahead with their coup against Hitler and assassinate him on 9/29/1938. see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Resistance_to_Nazism.
Unfortunately, as other discussants have pointed out, Germany is on the verge of bankruptcy due to it's military spending. The Nazi dictatorship is overthrown and free elections are held in November 1938. But the deficit has been until now handled by the Austrian treasury and now will not be covered by the Czechslovak and Polish treasuries. Austerity measures lead to mass layoffs of government workers. The Social Democratic Government, voted in in November, falls in February 1939. Ernst Thaelmann and the Komminist Parti Deutshchland call a general strike that is honored. By March 1939, the Communists are in power in Germany, a Germany that comprises also Austria and the Sudetenland.
A command economy is instituted to get and keep people fed and working. Public works that the Nazis started such as the Autobahns are restarted. And close relations with the USSR are sought.
A communist Germany is decidedly threatening and even alarming to France, Great Britain, Italy and even the United States in a way that a Nazi Germany never was. Great Britain restores relations with Mussolini's Italy, broken over Italy's takeover of Ethiopia and begins to give Mussolini military aid, as does France. France begins a military buildup on Germany's border. Great Britain attempts to enlist Denmark's aid and support against Red Germany. Denmark declines.
All of this takes into 1940. In that year, the Republican Wendell Wilkie defeats FDR on a wave of anti-Communism. The Republicans take the House and Senate as well.
By 1941, Wilkie and the new British Prime Minister, Winston Churchill are attempting to mobilize their respective publics in a crusade against Communism. Alliance Francaise has taken over in France. And in response to Italy and France stationing troops in Yugoslavia, on Austria's border, Germany is giving military aid to a Communist guerrilla leader named Joseph Broz who goes by the nom de guerre of Tito. Other guerrilla movements are being aided throughout eastern Europe all the way to Greece and even in Italy and France themselves. Though the situation still has not developed into a shooting war between the armies of Germany and the USSR and the Allies of Great Britain, France, Italy, United States, Japan, Nationalist China, Yugoslavia, Poland, Hungary Romania and Bulgaria. Yet.