Challenge: Danish Livonia

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to have all of Livonia (Courland, Estonia and Livonia proper) in Danish hands in the present day with a POD no earlier than 1550.

 

[Valdemar II]

This challenge are both easy and hard. Magnus of Denmark brother of Frederik II did try to become king of Livonia, but failed partly because lack of support from his brother (partly from a bad relationship between the brothers, partly because of bad Danish finances thanks to the Nordic Seven Year War). I had some ideas here.

One of the good PODs are that much of the Danish fleet are not lost in a storm. Likely we see Sweden being starved to surrender. So Denmark gain Estonia and Elfborg (Göteborg), Magnus are still adminstrator of the Bishopric of Ösel. Like in OTL the Livonians and Cours seek protection against Poland-Lithuania and in the 1570ties elect Magnus as King, like in OTL he receive support from the Russians and with Frederik II in a better position to support his brother. So we end up with Danish-Polish war, with the Russian joining the Danish side and the Swedes stay neutral. While the Poles are strong the Danish postion are stronger because their dominans of the Baltic, so the War end with Magnus end up of King of Livonia (which includes Courland). Magnus died young and childless in OTL so let imagine he do here too (a little unlikely but not much so especially because his brother died young too). Frederik II are crowned King by the Livonians whom still fear the Poles of course we have the problem that Frederik dies a few year later, but with Estonia and Ösel being the Danish king personal possesions, they choose to keep it united under Christian IV.

Denmark was in a much better position than Sweden and fully able to protect their Baltic possesion for decades in OTL, I see no reason why a weaker Sweden will change that, through Denmark likely will enter the Swedish side in the "disagreement" between the Polish and Swedish Vasas. Which will gforce Denmark to strenghten its position in East Baltic and including seeking complete naval dominans of the Baltic. The big problem are the growth of Russia, which will be challenge to Danish control of Livonia.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

I think Ivan the Terrible would demand Narva and Dorpat if he is to let the Danes do their thing in Livonia. They'd have to be taken later to fulfill the challenge.

 

[Valdemar II]

I think Ivan the Terrible would demand Narva and Dorpat if he is to let the Danes do their thing in Livonia. They'd have to be taken later to fulfill the challenge.

Russia are weak enough at that point that it's possible, the problem are that continued wars with Russia in long term will end up in Russian victory. So we need to weaken Russia. The solution could be that Sweden turn their agression on Russia (they really have little choice with Danish naval dominans and with Swedens problems with feeding itself). But without the Kalmar War (there's little reason for it with a clear Danish naval dominans*) Sweden are better able to project power in Wars with Russia. So Sweden succed goes after Ingermänsland with succes which cut of Dorpat and Narva from Russia especially if we see Poland as in OTL joining the War, Denmark could decide support the Swedes and Poland (Christian IV need a alternative war to prove himself) angainst getting those territories. Sweden with a smaller naval budget and without the reparation to Denmark may see bigger succes, maybe get control of Karel and the Russian territories west of Lovat.

This may be enough to weaken Russia long enough that it will have trouble gaining control over Livonia later. Plus without the Baltic Germans and access to the Baltic it will be a lot harder for the Russians to modernise.

*While the War was over Finnmarken, it was in reality a pissing match, but with Danish naval dominans Danish superiority are so clear that Sweden would back down.