Challenge: Complete muslim-majority Bosnia (more than 80%) by 1900

[Angel Grace]

In OTL, the muslims of Bosnia (according to Austrian census) comprised only about 32.25% of the entire population of the territory in 1910, surprising since in modern it has increased to 51%. However, the challenge presented to you is, have Bosnia, with no POD earlier than 1848 become a majority muslim country by 1910, with over 80% of the population being practicing muslims. What is discouraged: forced conversions, ethnic exchanges and genocides.

 

[Kerney]

What is discouraged: forced conversions, ethnic exchanges and genocides.

I truthfully don't see it happening without at least some of those, probably 'encouraged' by the Ottomans. In the Balkans, identity is tied to religion and it's hard to give those up when their such a knot.

 

[Angel Grace]

I truthfully don't see it happening without at least some of those, probably 'encouraged' by the Ottomans. In the Balkans, identity is tied to religion and it's hard to give those up when their such a knot.

I don't think the ottomans can manage to do any of those because they'll instantly face backlash and invasions from the entirety of europe since they're very weak in 19th century

 

[Legalize Crack]

Impossible without ethnic exchanges being allowed.

 

[Qastiel]

Bosnia was slightly majority Muslim by the 17th century, grew a greater Islamic population into the 18th century then was reduced due to the wars of the period and Ottoman decline in the 19th century.

A PoD no earlier than 1848 is certainly an interesting choice. Though I’ve seen estimates that even at this point in time there was a slight Muslim majority within Bosnia.

I can’t say I can really think of much of an answer other than an Ottoman Empire with more state capacity is able to better take in the Islamic refugees from Russia such as the Tatars and Circassians and settles them in Bosnia.

And I guess the way to have more state capacity would be a better allocation of debt spending than what the Ottomans did OTL. The lack of a unified plan across Ottoman Sultans in the 19th century (leading to things like one Sultan building the 3rd largest modern navy in the world only for later sultans to not use it and let it rot) resulted in a lot of wasteful spending.

The period between 1855 and 1875 where the Ottomans went from having no foreign debt to going bankrupt and having the Ottoman Public Debt Administration forced on them was a pretty transformative period which the PoD sits within.

 

[Lalli]

Impossible without enforcing people to convert, enforcing people move around, wars or genocides. And even then it is not certain that you could succesfully get such numbers. Not sure if even that if Ottomans give some nice privileges if local Christians convert to Islam.

 

[lynxpt]

In OTL, the muslims of Bosnia (according to Austrian census) comprised only about 32.25% of the entire population of the territory in 1910, surprising since in modern it has increased to 51%. However, the challenge presented to you is, have Bosnia, with no POD earlier than 1848 become a majority muslim country by 1910, with over 80% of the population being practicing muslims. What is discouraged: forced conversions, ethnic exchanges and genocides.

With such a late point of divergence, it's impossible without the things you discourage and very hard even with them.
Bosnia had a Muslim majority in the 17th and 18th centuries but lost its Muslim majority by 1800 because of warfare and plagues. I think reaching 80% Muslim would still be hard, though. More likely would be reaching 70% Muslim, the same as Albania.

Bosnia was slightly majority Muslim by the 17th century, grew a greater Islamic population into the 18th century then was reduced due to the wars of the period and Ottoman decline in the 19th century.

A PoD no earlier than 1848 is certainly an interesting choice. Though I’ve seen estimates that even at this point in time there was a slight Muslim majority within Bosnia.

@Vabasion said otherwise at https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...nct-ethnic-groups.509055/page-2#post-21864455. He said that Bosnia had a Muslim majority in the 17th and 18th centuries but not in the 19th century.

 

[Qastiel]

With such a late point of divergence, it's impossible without the things you discourage and very hard even without them.
Bosnia had a Muslim majority in the 17th and 18th centuries but lost its Muslim majority by 1800 because of warfare and plagues. I think reaching 80% Muslim would still be hard, though. More likely would be reaching 70% Muslim, the same as Albania.


@Vabasion said otherwise at https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...nct-ethnic-groups.509055/page-2#post-21864455. He said that Bosnia had a Muslim majority in the 17th and 18th centuries but not in the 19th century.

It depends which specific decade you talk about. In the early 19th century there was still a slight Muslim majority, reduced because of Austrian destruction with every invasion but helped by the establishment of Serbia and Montenegro as states that Serbs migrated to.

The Ottoman census in 1870 seemed to suggest a bare Muslim majority (most likely a plurality since they had cause to fudge the numbers). But a lot of travellers in the region seemed to also state there was a Muslim majority well into the mid-1800s. I think by the late 1870s it was Muslim minority (the Ottoman census was kind of shit) and Bosnia experienced a problem similar to Ireland for the British in that the Muslims were more likely to join the army and therefore die which in turn made the Islamic communities more vulnerable to communal violence.

I agree with the general points they’re making but would argue a Bosnian Muslim majority existed into the early 19th century. The mid 19th century is where it depends who you ask because there are travellers who claim there was a Muslim majority but also travellers who’d claim a Christian majority in the region.

 

[TrickyApe]

During roughly the first half of the 19th century there was a belief among European orientalists that the Muslim population of Turkey was being reduced by the heavy conscription requirements of Mahmud II's new army. I have no real idea whether this was true on a statistically significant basis, but the death rates of Ottoman soldiers were indeed very high by contemporary standards, mostly due to disease, and even the survivors were kept from establishing families for long periods. Supposedly this favored the Christian population, which was not subject to military service.

There might be something to work with here for the Balkans in general but unfortunately for the particular issue I don't think Bosnia was subject to regular conscription for most of this period. Still, it's an idea that might bear consideration.