Challenge: Canadian War of Independence

Well. Britain could tax the crap out of the Canadian colonies to pay off the war debt after the American Revolution. That on top of a number of other things could eventually lead to a "Canadian Revolution"
 
There really weren't enough people around to have a successful revolt, and the ones that were there were relatively placid and, more importantly, consisted of a lot of ex-American Loyalists and their descendants. That is in part with the Upper Canada and Patriotes revolts failed. (The) Canada(s), due to its (their) vast, forested geography, different colonization process, and relatively low level of development until around Confederation, was (were) not likely candidate(s) for a successful violent independence movement. Without American support, this becomes nigh impossible.
 
There's no terribly likely way to do it, since there really hasn't been a time when Canadians would be better off without Britain. You could let the uprisings of 1837 succeed, but my impression is that these had very limited popular support, and the British North Americans might very well have thrown out their revolutionary governments and asked to go back to Britain a generation later (in response to the ACW? Confederation despite independence?)

There were some unfortunate types running Canada during WWI, most notably its War department (of course, most nations can say the same thing). I can imagine things going a bit more stupid and a coalition of right-thinking Canadians and the Quebecois :p rebelling against that government (any cooperation with the Irish?), but even a successful rebellion might have kept Canada in the Commonwealth - the problem is pretty clearly the Canadian government by that point, after all, not the Crown. Which isn't to say there wouldn't be hard feelings if there's a Central Powers victory because of the distraction...
 
Having a "Canadian" rebellion independent of the United States is tough. My initial thought was to get avoid the War of 1812, having Upper Canada being swamped with American immigrants (as it was in OTL prior to 1812) and assuming an American identity eventually rebelling from Britain.

Without American involvement is tougher...especially considering that Canada is defined by anti-americanism.

Let's take as a POD, more French Canadian involvement in the American Revolutionary War, not a lot, but a little. Perhaps a "Great Man" rises up in Montreal and rallys a few thousand to his cause. Or perhaps Arnold's Quebec expedition is more successful and Quebec is captured briefly by the Americans only to be retaken by the British shortly thereafter. A larger number of French Canadians participate in the Revolution including several prominent ones. As a result, post-war Britain is less inclined to honor French Canadians and their institutions, effectively viewing the Quebec Act as a failure. Plans for securing British North America and assimilating French Canada are deemed of great importance and several schemes are floated.

Loyalist/British settlements in what is now Southern Ontario provide the British government with impetus to enact their plans of assimilation. Completely abandoning the previous hallmarks of the Quebec Act, in the Constitution Act of 1791 (Perhaps earlier?) the British government begins to phase out French institutions and replace them with British. Furthermore, in order to increase the number of Anglophone settlers in the colony, the Maritimes, and Newfoundland are incorporated into the newly formed Colony of Canada.

The repeal of the Quebec Act leads to massive French Canadian riots which quickly turn ugly. French Canadian revolutionaries, in exile in America, return home and begin to organize an armed resistance. Many fear a renewed war between the American colonies and Great Britain over the issue of Quebec and other issues (Those resolved by the Jay Treaty in OTL). However Washington is shrewd, he knows America would be poorly served by a war over Canada and has no desire to see his nation at war with Britain again. Using the threat of intervention as leverage, Washington manages to negotiate an earlier, more favorable Jay Treaty with Britain in exchange for non-intervention in the Quebecois uprising.

This treaty incenses the Jeffersonians even more than OTL, but little is done about it. Despite their best efforts, the Federalists, the authors of the treaty in OTL and TTL, remain in power until the majority of the fighting is over. The Quebec War of the 1790's is particularly bloody and nobody really wins. The initial revolutionary armies raised by the French are defeated by a combined force of Loyalists, Maritime Provincial Militia, and British Regulars. With the British determined to enforce TTL's harsher Constitution Act of 1791 the French Canadians are desperate. Thousands leave for Louisiana, France, America, you name it and Britain is willing and eager to see them go.

Those that stay are determined to fight on, looking to their colonial past they adopt Native American tactics and fight a guerrilla war against their British occupiers. Using revolutionary language the guerrillas inflict heavy casualties on the British but also illicit harsh reprisals. These reprisals eventually result in a scorched earth policy being adopted by both sides. However with the British able to ship supplies down the St. Lawrence the guerrillas are at a disadvantage, thousands of civilians die and the guerrillas effectively cut themselves off from the support of the local population. Thousands more leave Quebec, mostly for the USA. Those that stay reluctantly submit to the authority of the colonial government established under the Constitutional Act of 1791.

However the end of the Quebec Uprisings of the 1790's does not spell an end for British problems in British North America. Despite their victory, the actual amount of support for the united Colony of Canada is minuscule. The Loyalists have seen their number decimated from the war in which they eagerly participated (Also many OTL Loyalists opted out out of fighting in Quebec). Furthermore the Maritime colonies never wanted to be a part of the United Canadian colony to begin with and now find themselves saddled with occupation duty, a portion of the war debt (after all, the war was fought for their sake!), and hundreds of dead littering the fields of Quebec. Furthermore Quebec has become the final destination for thousands of British convicts who in OTL were sent to Australia, and they're none too happy about that. Finally in Britain many are questioning the rationale of fighting so hard over what Voltaire deemed "A few acres of snow".

Feeling betrayed by the British a significant amount of anti-British sentiment arises in the Maritime colonies. Not wanting to join the Americans, but not wanting to live under British tyranny, an independence movement grows throughout the war and into the first decade of the 19th century. Though suppressed during the war, following it's conclusion it begins to rise again. Things come to a head when a detachment of Nova Scotia militia garrisoning Quebec mutiny and decide to head home. Confronting British regulars, fighting breaks out and it doesn't take long for the maritime colonies to rally to their support. The Maritimes meanwhile are joined by those remaining French Canadians. Together they defeat the remaining British forces in North America (much reduced due to the Napoleonic Wars) limiting them to a pair of besieged garrisons in Halifax and St. Johns Newfoundland. In the early 1800's (1803ish?). Following the defeat a "Canadian Colonial Assembly" is formed with joint participation from the Maritimes and French Canada.

Britain meanwhile, is faced with the unwelcome prospect of launching a trans-Atlantic invasion. Furthermore the United States is more and more supportive of the Canadian Rebels causing fears of yet another American War. However the Canadians don't have a whole lot of horses in the stable either. With the Canadians effectively exhausted, and the British distracted by Napoleonic affairs, a compromise is reached. Peace feelers are sent out and negotiations begin. Canada will remain in the British Empire, sort of, as an autonomous "dominion" with minimal British involvement and in charge of it's own defense. Eager to do away with the "money-pit" that Canada has become, Britain agrees.

The Canadian Confederation draws heavily on the American Articles of Confederation for it's Constitution, establishing a more decentralized polity. Though Quebec now tolerates Roman Catholicism, it's English institutions are retained to keep the peace with the English settlers (attracted by Free Land/ Forced to come due to Convict Fleets)...

Okay, what was supposed to be a short post just ate an hour of my time. Rats, Thoughts? I know it's horribly unrealistic and there's holes in it bigger than Alaska, but for a (relatively) Non-American influenced Canadian War of Independence that's about as good as I could come up with...
 
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