Basically this. If Hitler somehow makes peace with the UK after the fall of France then we will see a reduced France with nominally independent BeNeLux, maybe minus the Lux. Austria and Czechoslovakia would be annexed, and part of Germany, as would everything West of the Urals that isn't Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, or Italy. Depending on how exactly Italy navigates the period, an Axis aligned Yugoslavia could exist, although probably reduced in size. Ditto with Greece, who could be annexed by its neighbors or axis-aligned, depending on the circumstances.
In Africa, it depends on the situation there. If Germany makes peace with the UK then I think it looks largely like it did before, maybe with some colony transfers from France to Italy. If the Afrika Corps does better then Egypt and the Levant is axis-controlled or aligned. Italy either annexes or retains Egypt as a puppet state. Sub-Saharan Africa is going to look mostly as OTL unless the French colonies are under a Vichy-type government, which isn't likely. The UK will likely be in less of a position to maintain its colonies, and decolonization will be accelerated. The Greater Rhodesian confederation might survive as the UK pressures the colonies to band together rather than spin apart. Italy can maybe swing getting the French and UK parts of East Africa depending on the circumstances, but if the Fascist government survives then Ethiopia remains in Italian hands for at least awhile. Eritrea and Somalia indefinitely.
Asia is going to depend on the fate of the Soviet Union. "Japan is doomed as soon as it goes against the US" seems to be the consensus around here, and I tend to agree. In a scenario where Japan is defeated and the Soviets aren't capable of influencing the post-war order, China is going to stay under the KMT, as the Communists relied extensively on Soviet material support, and direct military intervention against the Japanese. This probably changes the post-war colonial picture in some way, with Communist rebels suffering from a lack of victories to look to as examples. But countries like France and the Netherlands are still going to be hard-pressed trying to re implement colonialism. Armed revolts will take place, but the colonial overlords might be a little more willing to compromise without the boogeyman of communism standing around. Overall, the situation is better in Asia in some ways. However, if this Axis victory includes a victorious Japan, then instead you've got the map covered in Japanese holdings and satellites. China is probably going to be split under different puppet governments if the Japanese can manage it. The ports and major parts of the coast are going to be under direct Japanese control. All the puppets Japan controls will likely be under what I've seen on here called the "Yen Bloc," a common currency and trade zone dominated by Japan. Not sure of the fate of Australia and New Zealand here, but if they don't get brought under the Japanese thumb then expect them to directly administer several islands and areas around them that in OTL became part of Papua New Guinea or Indonesia.
North and South America will be pretty much the same, minus the effects of whatever ASB is necessary to make Japan win. Some people speculate about Argentina being a "South American Reich" in a victorious Germany scenario, I don't know about that but I'll throw that possibility out there.