American Barbarossa
A POD during WW2? Ok.
- USSR conquers Germany earlier, in mid 1944, while the Allies have gotten some headway into France and are building up lots of forces to take as much of Europe as possible. This Soviet success comes from better luck, choices, and less purging. The USSR is stronger overall in the war, can defend itself more easily, and is seen more as "the Soviet 3rd party" rather than a member of the Allies."
- Arguments between Soviets and Allies over the fate of Europe in 1944-45. tensions grow as Soviets move into parts of France and invade Manchuria in late 1944, taking the area and some Japanese islands. Soviet aggression greatly played up in US politics and policy.
- Japan, nuked by the USA in 1945, surrenders. Soviets and Allies "agree" to some borders/influence spheres but frankly both sides feel this is BS. Tension points in France/Low countries, Korea, Hokkaido, China, Germany, Greece, and other regions.
- Korean communists extend their influence into the South, and a Vietnam-like war begins between the two in late 1945.
- A massive Soviet espionage conspiracy (perhaps a sabotage of nuclear production or something similar) leads to a McCarthy-like witchhunt of Communists and widespread denunciation of the Soviet menace.
- Meanwhile, the situation in Europe has two massive armies facing each other while their leaders are not getting very far diplomatically. While the Soviets have larger forces, the Allies have a fresh economy, quality, and nukes.
- In early 1946, military incident occurs in one of the tension zones involving Soviet and Allied troops. Ultimatums from both sides demanding a final acceptance of postwar borders/spheres of influence) are issued within days or weeks of each other.
- In its anticommunist frenzy, the USA, claiming that the USSR is on the warpath (they point to flashpoints like Korea and China and others), sets into motion a plan to liberate Europe and Asia, and to contain Stalinism (much like the effort in 1919 to snuff out Communism from the birthpalce).
- The operation, using the massive, fresh forces that were originally prepared to fight Nazis (but saw little combat since the Germans were already on the verge of defeat by the time of D-Day ITTL), blitzkriegs the Russians in the contested areas, using nuclear weapons in a tactical role to beat the frontline Soviet divisions. For a month or so, everything about the attack goes to plan, and the people living in those areas (Ruhr, Low Countries) see the prowess of of American armies and economics, and generally turn to the West. The Americans bombard the enemy from the land, sea, and air, and are very successful as expected. Encouraged by their victories in Western Europe, the Allies drive on, even proclaiming that they may restore democracy to Russia itself.
- But in Asia the efforts are not as good. The US armies take back Hokkaido, the northern Japanese islands and Sakhalin, but due to manpower shortages do not dare to land in Vladivostok, instead preferring to bombard it along with other Communist strongholds in Asia. Mediocre American forces are deployed to help the Nationalist Chinese and South Korean government to resist guerrilla fighters and their Soviet backers. This leads to a situation not unlike OTL Vietnam, but it is overshadowed by the European victories. The US leadership is aware that Asia is a harder battle but are convinced that victory in Europe will naturally cause Asia to follow suit.
- After taking most of Germany, all of Italy, and starting their invasions of Central Eastern Europe as Soviet divisions retreat (Stalin is grudgingly okay with this since he never really considered the land their in to be essential Soviet property), some analysts in the US military point out that Japan surrendered after having their cities nuked, so the same logic can be applied to Russia. The city of Stalingrad (it was not destroyed through battle ITTL, as also applies to much of Russia) is chosen as the target for its ideological significance (and it has some industries) and is destroyed by an atomic bomb, after which the Allies demand that the Russians remove all their armies to the 1939 borders. In the USA, this move is seen with great approval, as many truly believe in the mission to liberate Europe and force the totalitarian foe to back down.
- But the Russians are not about to throw away their WW2 gains just because of some overpowered bomb. They reject the demands.
- While Soviet forces have indeed taken huge losses and have been forced to retreat, they have learned some of the weakness of the newly-built but largely untested US forces, particularly in the field of armored warfare. The US successes of early 1946 were due to swift and powerful air operations, skilled mobile operations, and nuclear bombs used in key locations, but Russians armies are not bad either, having much experience fighting the Germans. After regrouping in Poland, the Russians are able to hold their ground and carry out defensive operations with increasing degrees of success. While the Americans slowly push them back, it is not without sacrifice. Poland and other parts of Eastern Europe are devastated in the warfare, leading those populations to give up on the idea of American liberators, and more successful Soviet moves continue to pose a direct threat to US armies, who like the Germans of OTL, do not enjoy anything even resembling air superiority. Moreover, with a limited number of atomic weapons, the Allies now reserve them for strategic use.
- The Russians go to great lengths to find ways to intercept nuclear-armed bombers and simultaneously ramp up atomic research of their own. This will result in a preliminary device with low yield in mid-1947. However, a defeat on US nuclear forces is inflicted when two bombers carrying warheads to oil-producing infrastructure are shot down, showing that nuclear attack is not assured of success.
- In March 1947, the US, bogged down in Eastern Europe, decides to mount a twin assault on the Ukraine and Baltic states from the sea, with the aim of taking Leningrad and cutting off the Caucasus oil. As with D-Day this happens without fail. The Baltic states are nicely liberated as a good contrast to the more unsuccessful efforts in Asia and Central Eastern Europe. But in the Ukraine, which in truth is the more important front by far, does not go as planned. The Soviet command devotes more experienced, mobile troops to execute a flexible defense in eastern Ukraine and the Rostov/Don region, hindering American efforts.
- The central front in Poland is left to more "cannon-fodder" type units, who continue to retreat as is marked in the long, brutal, and losing defense of Warsaw. But these divisions serve their purpose well, which is to hold off enemy forces for as long as possible while scorching the land as they move back. With the correct positioning, preparations, and fortifications, it is clear to the US forces that more tactical atomic strikes are just a waste of the precious nuclear stockpile, which is used to hamper Soviet industry.
- For a year from 1947 to early 1948, the front remains quite static. Unrest is growing in both sides; the Soviet citizens are suffering from starvation, fallout, massive bombing runs, while the American citizens, hearing hideous tales from the war and looking at the massive rate of casualties and apparent inability to gain a meaningful victory over the USSR, are just plain tired of the fighting. Propaganda on both sides keep the war effort running, but the US suffers worse from popular resentment because of its democratic nature and the fact that they aren't the ones who have their land being bombed and fought over.
- In spring 1948 the USSR completes an atomic bomb, having learned much from their prototype model. Stalin goes giddy with this device and orders its immediate usage. The weapon is deployed on a major American spearhead near the Volga/Don meeting point, echoing the destruction of Stalingrad two years prior. The weapon amounts to a huge success because the Americans were used to concentrating their forces in order to quickly break through enemy lines. The attack comes as a huge propaganda victory for the Soviet Union. Three days later, a coordinated Soviet attack, the biggest Soviet offensive of the war, makes great use of the chaos in the American ranks and is able to drive the enemy forces off of mainland Ukraine. A similar drive occurs around Leningrad, which succeeds in pushing the Americans and their allies back to the Baltic states, where they enjoy more solid support due to having been taken quickly.
- Shortly afterward, a British formation (along with a command unit) is wiped out in a second nuclear attack in Moldova (I know it was called something different back then). This formation was intended to lead an offensive to link up with the Americans in the Don region (thus conquering Ukraine), and the defeat of this plan is too much for the British population to stomach. Demonstrators actively protest the war, with similar movements in the USA, which is still reeling from the sudden attacks. The US propaganda had convinced their people that the Russians could never develop a bomb before 1950, but this turned out to be untrue, and indeed untrue in a very painful way. The US administration is split on the issue, since there are many who believe that the USSR can still be defeated, or that at least Ukraine can be freed.
- Surprisingly (or not), it is the Soviets who make the first apparent moves toward ceasefire and negotiation. In a famous speech, Stalin declares his regime's possession of nuclear power and makes a clear demand for the Allies to come to terms. In the West, some elements try to cover the story up (Stalin's on the ignore list for many of them already) or to paint the speech as treachery. However, those anti-war groups agree with popular sentiment and spread their own view of the speech as a chance to end the war (and on overall favorable terms for the US).
- In the end, public pressure forces the Allied governments to agree to negotiate. The Soviet Union receives its 1945 borders, expect for a "neutralized" Baltic region (in fact they are pro-West), the loss of Crimea to an anti-Communist Russian government (it becomes a Taiwan-like situation), and the addition of half of 1945 Poland (it approximates but is actually smaller than the portion that Russia had in 1914), with the other half becoming "West Poland" or "free Poland", with a border running along the Vistula. Additionally, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania are turned neutral.
- The Asian theater sees Sakhalin remain under US occupation (it is eventually split between Japan and the other half remains in a diplomatic grey zone with the US trying to avoid mention of it. When they have to, they grumble that it will be returned to a free Russian government (basically if the USSR collapses). China is divided along the Yangtze, but the peace will surely not last there. Korea falls to Communism Vietnam-style.
- The USA has "won" the war, but only at the cost of many millions of lives, a handful of Soviet cities, and a semi-pariah status in the eyes of much of the world, including of course the Soviet peoples. In a collective sense, the Soviets are immensely displeased at having their victory over Nazism nulled and their country devastated at the hands of Americans, and the West is in political chaos for quite some after the war that went grotesquely pear-shaped. The Cold war continues, but it never again gains the ideological fervor it carried in the 50's and 60s of OTL, at least not in the West, which counters the Soviet Union and its allies simply out of sheer geopolitical need. In the Communist world, there is no Sino-Soviet split (Mao is helped greatly by a Soviet regime that does not want to liberalize on the OTL path), and socialism as a whole in the third world is given a boost due to increased anti-Western sentiment.
I hope that my scenario makes at least some sense/coherence, is not totally implausible, nor too favoring of any one side (I sincerely tried to balance it). I can't be bothered about any more details (I've already spent over two hours on this post and sacrificed my chance to break a bad sleeping schedule), but even if some circumstances need to be altered, I feel that my scenario is still "structurally intact".
Good night.