Challenge: American invasion of the USSR

NapoleonXIV

Banned
How about in 1989? The Soviet Army counter revolution to the economic reforms has some success in Eastern cities. The Baltic republics declare independence, Gorbachev and Yeltsin flee to Lithuania and Gorbachev calls on his friend, Ronald Reagan, to help his rump Army restore the legitimate government of the Soviet Union.

I don't know how plausible that is, but its certainly interesting from a military standpoint.

At this point Gorbachev was doing what Reagan had told him to literally "tear down this wall", Reagan may have seen this as a call to put his money where his mouth was.

I doubt Reagan would do it on his own, as he was smart enough to avoid any engagements where there was anything remotely like a chance of even a setback, let alone a defeat, but there might be a sort of behind the scenes coup like thing, where a faction in the Congress becomes especially powerful.

However, there is still the problem of the missiles and the whole MAD thing, which always made interference in the internal affairs of the Soviets unthinkable.

One trick to make it workable might be to get American Forces quickly onto Soviet soil, because the Soviets aren't then going to start nuking themselves and America at the same time (we hope)
 
NapoleonXIV's idea is implausible, 'm afraid. Any attack would result in the full MAD works and life on Earth would have about a 50/50 chance of making it through the winter. The only plausible time would be before the Soviets got the bomb, in other words at around the time of the Berlin Blockade.

Of course, as others have pointed out, this has its own problems. All things considered, the most likely scenario (involving an American invasion, that is) would be an initial American assault backed up by tactical nukes that makes gains of a few miles on the first day, followed by a crushing counter-attack that sends the Americans into the sea over the next few weeks. A long, hard slog develops as the Americans attempt to regain Europe (and send troops to help the Chinese nationalists, probably) only to be cut short as Truman is defeated by third party candidate Henry Wallace running on an anti-war platform.

So now it's January 1949, we have a Europe overrun by the Soviets, some major Soviet cities reduced to charcoal, American troops fighting Chinese communists and Henry Wallace suing for peace. What happens next?
 

Superdude

Banned
I can see the USA winning it, actually.

They just have to be very lucky in the very beginning, and catch a great deal of the Soviet armored forces out in the open with a massive aerial attack, followed up b y an armored assault against the weakened soviets, then nuclear strikes to cut lines of retreat.
 

backstab

Banned
I think most people are not thinking of what happend to the last country that tried. As I said before the US would win the battle but not the War. Even though the Russian people may not be 'Good Communists', an invasion of the Soviet Union would be seen as a war against the Russian People.
 
backstab said:
I think most people are not thinking of what happend to the last country that tried. As I said before the US would win the battle but not the War. Even though the Russian people may not be 'Good Communists', an invasion of the Soviet Union would be seen as a war against the Russian People.

Thank you, why are we the only people who seem to think that the U.S. is not going to win this war?
 
Martel said:
Thank you, why are we the only people who seem to think that the U.S. is not going to win this war?
I think they'd have a good chance of pushing the SU out of Europe if WW3 picks up right after WW2.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
NapoleonXIV said:
...One trick to make it workable might be to get American Forces quickly onto Soviet soil, because the Soviets aren't then going to start nuking themselves and America at the same time (we hope)

That's a bet I would suggest you do not make. When it comes down to live or die, people do REALLY STUPID THINGS! Especially if you are talking hard-liners who are desperate to hold onto power at any cost.
 
CalBear said:
That's a bet I would suggest you do not make. When it comes down to live or die, people do REALLY STUPID THINGS! Especially if you are talking hard-liners who are desperate to hold onto power at any cost.
Wouldn't Gorby and his allies be the only ones with the launch codes in their possession?
 
I'm not too sure the Russian military structure worked in the same 'only launch with the right codes' way that the US did. I remember another thread about the near-catastrophe in 1983 when a computer inaccurately reported a full-scale American attack which was only averted by the officer on-station refusing to respond. Apparently all he needed to do was press a big button labeled 'start'.

Besides which, I would imagine some contingency would be in place if the command structure was 'taken out' that would allow the missiles to be launched. Think Dr. Strangelove.
 
I am serious.There was a book-out of print -called USSA- in which the US occupies the USSR after WW3 and attempts to bring democracy to the Russians and other peoples.This is not Kim Newman's book BTW.It is the other way around.Don't remember much of how the war went.Maybe someone who read the book can help.
 
DuQuense said:
Well
60 yrs after the end of WW2- whe are still in Italy, Germany and Japan,
50 yrs after the end of the Korean War -whe are there.
20 years in Veitman [ & if whe had won whe would still be there]
10 yrs and counting in Bosnia
13 yrs in Kuwait
You should point out thet the US have not been occuping Germany, Italy or Japan for over 60 years. You present the fact as if the US are. They are other reasons the US has a military presence in some of those countries THAT DOES NOT DEPEND ON WARS FOUGHT.
 
Scenario:

Yugoslavia stays aligned with the Soviet-Union after WW2. Things changes with Krushnev hovewer. In 1959, there are tensions between Yugoslavia and the Soviet-Union, Krushnev orders an invasion.

The United States attempts to intervene, to stop the invasion of Yugoslavia, the expedition force is defeated. Nato intervenes on US side, begin a bombardement campaign in eastern europe that doesn´t have the expected airsupremacy, instead face constant fighting from Warsawa pact fighters and anti-aircraft missiles.

The US send reinforcements to stop the red Army advance but the Red Army have local logistical superiority and Greece is exposed to an invasion. Soon after, Romanian and Bulgarians are besieging Istanbule, which becomes Constantinople. As an answer, east Germany is attacked but the western part of the country is evacuate, west Berlin is seized after a brutal battle and its population evacuated east.

In January 1960, NATO forces are comitted into fighting an attrition war against Warsawa Pact and even Chinese forces. Panic over nuclear war allow the United States governement to declare martial law, the United States governement is evacuated to Denver and congress is dissolved "for the duration of the crisis".

In 1960, the US decides to secure the oil necessary to wage war on the bolchevik bloc, from israel, the US military takes over the middle-east. Soviet and Chinese forces joins through Iran, in the course of the year the front is stabilised in Iraq.

In the summer of 1961, the great push east begin. 1962 see NATO securing central and eastern europe, then advance into the Soviet-Union itself late that year.

Spring 1963, the invasion of the Soviet-Union begin, become known as "Storm of Missiles", by summer NATO forces barely reaches Kiev, which is practically destroyed. Still, autumn mud comes and the invasion progress little, into territories that can best be described as one continuous minefield from Riga to Rostov.

In 1964, the NATO command have taken full control of member countries, intelligence services. There isn´t going to be any elections in the next 30 years. To soften up the Soviet-Union, a 25 megaton warhead is launched on Tallin, another on Kazan 30 minutes later. Surprisingly, resistance seems to increase, not diminush.
In summer 1964, the NATO forces goes for the Moscow region and instead of being greated as liberators, have to fight building from building. The Moscow region looks like a moon landscape by autumn 1964. While Moscow was besieged, the Red Army mounted many counter-attacks against the outstretched NATO forces.

In 1965, the focus is on the caucase, which is reached only in early summer as the High Command refuses a massive retreat in the Moscow region. The result is massive mountain warfare in the southern caucase. By the end of the year, the Soviets have been pushed out of the Soviet-Union and into Iran, a renewed offfensive on the Iraqi front begins.

1966, the Red Army is pushed back to the Iran-Iraq border, until terrain favours the defenders. A series of failed offensive to secure the region between Moscow and Stalingrad, with ever more Chinese soldiers on the front. Revolts at home against the massive casualties of the Soviet campaign are brutally crushed, the situation is spiralling out of control and a ceasure-fire is reached.

In 1967, the French end their state of emergency, causing immediate troubles with its "allies" that fears political troubles will spread from France to them. French treachery and lack of comittement is blamed in the US for the failure of the Soviet liberation, while Paris threaten tactical nuclear retaliation after large-scale troop movements are noticed to be directed against France. What remaines of european colonies are occupied by NATO forces until local right-wing regimes can be established, except French colonies.

14 years after WW3, the Sino-Soviet splite begin, when the alliance is gone. 3 years later, the US begin mobiling once more to finnish the job, test 1 megaton tactical nuclear bombs in the "Russian Federation" (a small part of the occupied Soviet-Union), while the Soviet-Union detonates a 40 megaton warhead.

Further 20 years, North Vietnam invades South Vietnam with Chinese support, the United States launch a 1000 tactical nuclear bombs against the North. Chinese divisions are destroyed and the Chinese strikes back against US bases, full-scale thermonuclear war follows. The United States win the war against China, its armies zigzaging between diverse fallout zones to occupy the whole of the country, remnants of the Chinese army resist with Soviet help. In the following years, a brutal occupation begin in China, as revenge for the Chinese missiles hitting west european and north american cities. Japan, both Koreas and Taïwan are angered by the massive attack on China and formes a 3rd block which support non-communist revolutions in the third-world.

12 years after the chinese campaign, a naval incident causes war between Japan and the United States, the Soviet-Union, Socialist Iran, India, Unified Korea and Taïwan sides with Japan. After an extensive campaign, the Eurasian Alliance win, the Red Army goes all the way to the French borders, the French governement declares itself neutral in the conflict.

A coup occures in the US and the state of emergency, that had been active since WW3, is ended. 2016 elections.
 
Why would the USSR not once use nuclear warheads on the US, or any of our allies? Russian doctrine was and is to use WMDs, nuclear, chemical, or otherwise, in the event of an invasion of Russia.
 
A lot of people forget how weak the Soviet Union actually was following the Second World War. They were about to suffer a agricultural crisis if they did not demobilize, had begun to scrap the bottom of their manpower, and were becoming increasingly dependent upon lend-lease supplies.

If the War were fought shortly after the end of the war in Europe, the Allies would still have many of their divisions deployed in Germany, Italy, and Greece. And the United States is still in a War-Economy.

So if it were ever to successfully happen, it would be during the year 1945. After that, the Allies were simply too weak, or the Soviet Union too strong, for an American invasion less occupation to work. That, and only the Americans will have nuclear weapons.
 
American Barbarossa

A POD during WW2? Ok.

- USSR conquers Germany earlier, in mid 1944, while the Allies have gotten some headway into France and are building up lots of forces to take as much of Europe as possible. This Soviet success comes from better luck, choices, and less purging. The USSR is stronger overall in the war, can defend itself more easily, and is seen more as "the Soviet 3rd party" rather than a member of the Allies."
- Arguments between Soviets and Allies over the fate of Europe in 1944-45. tensions grow as Soviets move into parts of France and invade Manchuria in late 1944, taking the area and some Japanese islands. Soviet aggression greatly played up in US politics and policy.
- Japan, nuked by the USA in 1945, surrenders. Soviets and Allies "agree" to some borders/influence spheres but frankly both sides feel this is BS. Tension points in France/Low countries, Korea, Hokkaido, China, Germany, Greece, and other regions.
- Korean communists extend their influence into the South, and a Vietnam-like war begins between the two in late 1945.
- A massive Soviet espionage conspiracy (perhaps a sabotage of nuclear production or something similar) leads to a McCarthy-like witchhunt of Communists and widespread denunciation of the Soviet menace.
- Meanwhile, the situation in Europe has two massive armies facing each other while their leaders are not getting very far diplomatically. While the Soviets have larger forces, the Allies have a fresh economy, quality, and nukes.
- In early 1946, military incident occurs in one of the tension zones involving Soviet and Allied troops. Ultimatums from both sides demanding a final acceptance of postwar borders/spheres of influence) are issued within days or weeks of each other.
- In its anticommunist frenzy, the USA, claiming that the USSR is on the warpath (they point to flashpoints like Korea and China and others), sets into motion a plan to liberate Europe and Asia, and to contain Stalinism (much like the effort in 1919 to snuff out Communism from the birthpalce).
- The operation, using the massive, fresh forces that were originally prepared to fight Nazis (but saw little combat since the Germans were already on the verge of defeat by the time of D-Day ITTL), blitzkriegs the Russians in the contested areas, using nuclear weapons in a tactical role to beat the frontline Soviet divisions. For a month or so, everything about the attack goes to plan, and the people living in those areas (Ruhr, Low Countries) see the prowess of of American armies and economics, and generally turn to the West. The Americans bombard the enemy from the land, sea, and air, and are very successful as expected. Encouraged by their victories in Western Europe, the Allies drive on, even proclaiming that they may restore democracy to Russia itself.
- But in Asia the efforts are not as good. The US armies take back Hokkaido, the northern Japanese islands and Sakhalin, but due to manpower shortages do not dare to land in Vladivostok, instead preferring to bombard it along with other Communist strongholds in Asia. Mediocre American forces are deployed to help the Nationalist Chinese and South Korean government to resist guerrilla fighters and their Soviet backers. This leads to a situation not unlike OTL Vietnam, but it is overshadowed by the European victories. The US leadership is aware that Asia is a harder battle but are convinced that victory in Europe will naturally cause Asia to follow suit.
- After taking most of Germany, all of Italy, and starting their invasions of Central Eastern Europe as Soviet divisions retreat (Stalin is grudgingly okay with this since he never really considered the land their in to be essential Soviet property), some analysts in the US military point out that Japan surrendered after having their cities nuked, so the same logic can be applied to Russia. The city of Stalingrad (it was not destroyed through battle ITTL, as also applies to much of Russia) is chosen as the target for its ideological significance (and it has some industries) and is destroyed by an atomic bomb, after which the Allies demand that the Russians remove all their armies to the 1939 borders. In the USA, this move is seen with great approval, as many truly believe in the mission to liberate Europe and force the totalitarian foe to back down.
- But the Russians are not about to throw away their WW2 gains just because of some overpowered bomb. They reject the demands.
- While Soviet forces have indeed taken huge losses and have been forced to retreat, they have learned some of the weakness of the newly-built but largely untested US forces, particularly in the field of armored warfare. The US successes of early 1946 were due to swift and powerful air operations, skilled mobile operations, and nuclear bombs used in key locations, but Russians armies are not bad either, having much experience fighting the Germans. After regrouping in Poland, the Russians are able to hold their ground and carry out defensive operations with increasing degrees of success. While the Americans slowly push them back, it is not without sacrifice. Poland and other parts of Eastern Europe are devastated in the warfare, leading those populations to give up on the idea of American liberators, and more successful Soviet moves continue to pose a direct threat to US armies, who like the Germans of OTL, do not enjoy anything even resembling air superiority. Moreover, with a limited number of atomic weapons, the Allies now reserve them for strategic use.
- The Russians go to great lengths to find ways to intercept nuclear-armed bombers and simultaneously ramp up atomic research of their own. This will result in a preliminary device with low yield in mid-1947. However, a defeat on US nuclear forces is inflicted when two bombers carrying warheads to oil-producing infrastructure are shot down, showing that nuclear attack is not assured of success.
- In March 1947, the US, bogged down in Eastern Europe, decides to mount a twin assault on the Ukraine and Baltic states from the sea, with the aim of taking Leningrad and cutting off the Caucasus oil. As with D-Day this happens without fail. The Baltic states are nicely liberated as a good contrast to the more unsuccessful efforts in Asia and Central Eastern Europe. But in the Ukraine, which in truth is the more important front by far, does not go as planned. The Soviet command devotes more experienced, mobile troops to execute a flexible defense in eastern Ukraine and the Rostov/Don region, hindering American efforts.
- The central front in Poland is left to more "cannon-fodder" type units, who continue to retreat as is marked in the long, brutal, and losing defense of Warsaw. But these divisions serve their purpose well, which is to hold off enemy forces for as long as possible while scorching the land as they move back. With the correct positioning, preparations, and fortifications, it is clear to the US forces that more tactical atomic strikes are just a waste of the precious nuclear stockpile, which is used to hamper Soviet industry.
- For a year from 1947 to early 1948, the front remains quite static. Unrest is growing in both sides; the Soviet citizens are suffering from starvation, fallout, massive bombing runs, while the American citizens, hearing hideous tales from the war and looking at the massive rate of casualties and apparent inability to gain a meaningful victory over the USSR, are just plain tired of the fighting. Propaganda on both sides keep the war effort running, but the US suffers worse from popular resentment because of its democratic nature and the fact that they aren't the ones who have their land being bombed and fought over.
- In spring 1948 the USSR completes an atomic bomb, having learned much from their prototype model. Stalin goes giddy with this device and orders its immediate usage. The weapon is deployed on a major American spearhead near the Volga/Don meeting point, echoing the destruction of Stalingrad two years prior. The weapon amounts to a huge success because the Americans were used to concentrating their forces in order to quickly break through enemy lines. The attack comes as a huge propaganda victory for the Soviet Union. Three days later, a coordinated Soviet attack, the biggest Soviet offensive of the war, makes great use of the chaos in the American ranks and is able to drive the enemy forces off of mainland Ukraine. A similar drive occurs around Leningrad, which succeeds in pushing the Americans and their allies back to the Baltic states, where they enjoy more solid support due to having been taken quickly.
- Shortly afterward, a British formation (along with a command unit) is wiped out in a second nuclear attack in Moldova (I know it was called something different back then). This formation was intended to lead an offensive to link up with the Americans in the Don region (thus conquering Ukraine), and the defeat of this plan is too much for the British population to stomach. Demonstrators actively protest the war, with similar movements in the USA, which is still reeling from the sudden attacks. The US propaganda had convinced their people that the Russians could never develop a bomb before 1950, but this turned out to be untrue, and indeed untrue in a very painful way. The US administration is split on the issue, since there are many who believe that the USSR can still be defeated, or that at least Ukraine can be freed.
- Surprisingly (or not), it is the Soviets who make the first apparent moves toward ceasefire and negotiation. In a famous speech, Stalin declares his regime's possession of nuclear power and makes a clear demand for the Allies to come to terms. In the West, some elements try to cover the story up (Stalin's on the ignore list for many of them already) or to paint the speech as treachery. However, those anti-war groups agree with popular sentiment and spread their own view of the speech as a chance to end the war (and on overall favorable terms for the US).
- In the end, public pressure forces the Allied governments to agree to negotiate. The Soviet Union receives its 1945 borders, expect for a "neutralized" Baltic region (in fact they are pro-West), the loss of Crimea to an anti-Communist Russian government (it becomes a Taiwan-like situation), and the addition of half of 1945 Poland (it approximates but is actually smaller than the portion that Russia had in 1914), with the other half becoming "West Poland" or "free Poland", with a border running along the Vistula. Additionally, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania are turned neutral.
- The Asian theater sees Sakhalin remain under US occupation (it is eventually split between Japan and the other half remains in a diplomatic grey zone with the US trying to avoid mention of it. When they have to, they grumble that it will be returned to a free Russian government (basically if the USSR collapses). China is divided along the Yangtze, but the peace will surely not last there. Korea falls to Communism Vietnam-style.
- The USA has "won" the war, but only at the cost of many millions of lives, a handful of Soviet cities, and a semi-pariah status in the eyes of much of the world, including of course the Soviet peoples. In a collective sense, the Soviets are immensely displeased at having their victory over Nazism nulled and their country devastated at the hands of Americans, and the West is in political chaos for quite some after the war that went grotesquely pear-shaped. The Cold war continues, but it never again gains the ideological fervor it carried in the 50's and 60s of OTL, at least not in the West, which counters the Soviet Union and its allies simply out of sheer geopolitical need. In the Communist world, there is no Sino-Soviet split (Mao is helped greatly by a Soviet regime that does not want to liberalize on the OTL path), and socialism as a whole in the third world is given a boost due to increased anti-Western sentiment.

I hope that my scenario makes at least some sense/coherence, is not totally implausible, nor too favoring of any one side (I sincerely tried to balance it). I can't be bothered about any more details (I've already spent over two hours on this post and sacrificed my chance to break a bad sleeping schedule), but even if some circumstances need to be altered, I feel that my scenario is still "structurally intact".

Good night.
 
Thank you, LeoXiao...

...For a good post on a bad thread. I think the effort you put in to balance it and ground it in plausibility shows.

I just hate these standard threads on standard wank-subjects that generally result in little but ape-like chest-pounding.

In general,

..war would be bad. M'kay?
 
Top