Challenge: America an oil exporter

[Krases]

I am curious if the United states can become an oil exporter. The quantity of oil exported doesn't matter, the US can still consume most of its own oil, but it can't import oil in large quantities and must export a fair amount (not just a few drops).

Can the US pull it off?

My attempt:
-The US passes a VAT tax on automobiles starting in the 1910's as part of the war effort, this proves to provide so much income that it is kept after the war and is supported by the railroad industry.
-Tram's and inner city rail never fall out of favor to the extent that they do OTL.
-Urban design methods never accommodate the car to the extent that they do, instead staying pedestrian and bike friendly with heavy emphasis on mass transit.
- In the 1970's, high speed rail begins to electrify.

The problem I have is with the fundamental numbers. If in 2010 the US produces 9 million bbl/ a day but consumes 19 bbl per day, then the US imports 10 mil bbl/ per day. If however the US slashes bbl consumption per citizen down to lets say the level of Denmark or France, then the US breaks even. At UK levels of consumption, the US can probably start to export a fair amount.

 

[GAB-1955]

I am curious if the United states can become an oil exporter. The quantity of oil exported doesn't matter, the US can still consume most of its own oil, but it can't import oil in large quantities and must export a fair amount (not just a few drops).

Can the US pull it off?

My attempt:
-The US passes a VAT tax on automobiles starting in the 1910's as part of the war effort, this proves to provide so much income that it is kept after the war and is supported by the railroad industry.
-Tram's and inner city rail never fall out of favor to the extent that they do OTL.
-Urban design methods never accommodate the car to the extent that they do, instead staying pedestrian and bike friendly with heavy emphasis on mass transit.
- In the 1970's, high speed rail begins to electrify.

The problem I have is with the fundamental numbers. If in 2010 the US produces 9 million bbl/ a day but consumes 19 bbl per day, then the US imports 10 mil bbl/ per day. If however the US slashes bbl consumption per citizen down to lets say the level of Denmark or France, then the US breaks even. At UK levels of consumption, the US can probably start to export a fair amount.

The U.S. is currently a net energy exporter, counting coal and natural gas.

 

[BlondieBC]

I am curious if the United states can become an oil exporter. The quantity of oil exported doesn't matter, the US can still consume most of its own oil, but it can't import oil in large quantities and must export a fair amount (not just a few drops).

Can the US pull it off?

My attempt:
-The US passes a VAT tax on automobiles starting in the 1910's as part of the war effort, this proves to provide so much income that it is kept after the war and is supported by the railroad industry.
-Tram's and inner city rail never fall out of favor to the extent that they do OTL.
-Urban design methods never accommodate the car to the extent that they do, instead staying pedestrian and bike friendly with heavy emphasis on mass transit.
- In the 1970's, high speed rail begins to electrify.

The problem I have is with the fundamental numbers. If in 2010 the US produces 9 million bbl/ a day but consumes 19 bbl per day, then the US imports 10 mil bbl/ per day. If however the US slashes bbl consumption per citizen down to lets say the level of Denmark or France, then the US breaks even. At UK levels of consumption, the US can probably start to export a fair amount.

It still does not get you there. If the USA used 10m less barrels per day (12% of world supply), the price would be lower. With a lower price, fields would be developed slower. Marginal projects like oil shales would not be be in production.

Also, the USA is a bigger, less population dense country than France. If the USA did have a infrastructure pattern of France, we would have a lot more unused land.

BTW, the easier way to limit oil use is to limit the population. Why not use an absolute ban on immigration in 1900?

 

[Krases]

The U.S. is currently a net energy exporter, counting coal and natural gas.

I am focusing specifically on oil. According to the government itself the government imports nearly twice as much as it produces when it comes to oil.

It still does not get you there. If the USA used 10m less barrels per day (12% of world supply), the price would be lower. With a lower price, fields would be developed slower. Marginal projects like oil shales would not be be in production.

Also, the USA is a bigger, less population dense country than France. If the USA did have a infrastructure pattern of France, we would have a lot more unused land.

BTW, the easier way to limit oil use is to limit the population. Why not use an absolute ban on immigration in 1900?

Thats very true, until demand from other countries starts to pick up the US probably wouldn't develop oil nearly as much. However there is always money to be made in exporting oil.

Leaving land to nature isn't exactly a problem, that could even be used as an environmental argument to keep oil prices artificially high for export reasons. One political possibility.

I am not sure how feasible a total ban is, but limiting immigration is a possibility. In the long term though, I think that would only hurt the US economy, not exactly help oil production and export.

 

[BlondieBC]

I am focusing specifically on oil. According to the government itself the government imports nearly twice as much as it produces when it comes to oil.



Thats very true, until demand from other countries starts to pick up the US probably wouldn't develop oil nearly as much. However there is always money to be made in exporting oil.

Leaving land to nature isn't exactly a problem, that could even be used as an environmental argument to keep oil prices artificially high for export reasons. One political possibility.


I am not sure how feasible a total ban is, but limiting immigration is a possibility. In the long term though, I think that would only hurt the US economy, not exactly help oil production and export.

You asked how to make the USA an oil export, not how to help the USA. BTW, if much of rural America is empty due to less population, less oil, the USA many not produce as much food, and might not be a major food exporter. Over 10% of petroleum goes into food production.


On your link, you are talking petroleum, he is talking hydrocarbons.

 

[Plumber]

What if the US annexed Canada way back then?

 

[BlondieBC]

What if the US annexed Canada way back then?

If limited to the area west of Ontario and east of the Rockies, it would help a lot.

But why not just have the USA annex coast Venezuela, at least the oil rich parts? Or the eastern part of Saudi Arabia in WW1?

 

[Plumber]

But why not just have the USA annex coast Venezuela, at least the oil rich parts? Or the eastern part of Saudi Arabia in WW1?

Canada is at least more plausible. Only Decades of Darkness... yeah.

I'm actually genuinely interested in the difference that would make, just for its own sake.

 

[BlondieBC]

Canada is at least more plausible. Only Decades of Darkness... yeah.

I'm actually genuinely interested in the difference that would make, just for its own sake.

A little under 3 million barrels per day. I think Venezuela is 2M. Yucatan used to be 2M.

So we only import 3 of the 20 million from Africa (Nigeria/Angola) and the Middle East (Saudi)

 

[Plumber]

A little under 3 million barrels per day. I think Venezuela is 2M. Yucatan used to be 2M.

So we only import 3 of the 20 million from Africa (Nigeria/Angola) and the Middle East (Saudi)

Ah. Still won't make much of a difference in price since oil's inelastic. Still interesting.

 

[Riain]

If you use high oil and other energy source efficiency you run into Jevons Paradox. For example if road transport was much more fuel efficient more people would use it which would eat up a lot of the potential savings you`d get from the engineering improvements.

 

[BlondieBC]

If you use high oil and other energy source efficiency you run into Jevons Paradox. For example if road transport was much more fuel efficient more people would use it which would eat up a lot of the potential savings you`d get from the engineering improvements.

High petroleum taxes on domestic consumption could help get around Jevons. Even today, if the USA added a $5 per gallon additional gas tax, it would go a long way towards making us an exporter. Not the whole way, but a major step.

I will skip the revolt by the American people butterfly.

 

[Armored Diplomacy]

America is a major oil producer, but its own industries consume lots of it. If the United States was less industrialized, it would have more domestic oil to export.

 

[voss749]

Possibilities

Fracking discovered in the 1960s...natural gas becomes cheap during the Oil embargo of the 1970s, truck fleets, taxis, and cars are moved over to natural gas (aka Autogas). Angry consumers demand the government stop "hogging all the cheap gas to themselves". Small foreign cars are unpopular because their cars cant hold the larger CNG gas tanks.

 

[Perkeo]

No country as industrial as the US will ever export oil. Any effort to lower consumption and/or increase production will stop as soon as oil is no longer a scarce ressource.

Oil exporting countries don't export oil because they have oil, but because they have nothing else to export. That's part of the phenomenom called "The curse of oil".

 

[RamscoopRaider]

No country as industrial as the US will ever export oil. Any effort to lower consumption and/or increase production will stop as soon as oil is no longer a scarce ressource.

Oil exporting countries don't export oil because they have oil, but because they have nothing else to export. That's part of the phenomenom called "The curse of oil".

We did export oil until the 1950's I think

 

[Derek Pullem]

I am curious if the United states can become an oil exporter. The quantity of oil exported doesn't matter, the US can still consume most of its own oil, but it can't import oil in large quantities and must export a fair amount (not just a few drops).

Can the US pull it off?

My attempt:
-The US passes a VAT tax on automobiles starting in the 1910's as part of the war effort, this proves to provide so much income that it is kept after the war and is supported by the railroad industry.
-Tram's and inner city rail never fall out of favor to the extent that they do OTL.
-Urban design methods never accommodate the car to the extent that they do, instead staying pedestrian and bike friendly with heavy emphasis on mass transit.
- In the 1970's, high speed rail begins to electrify.

The problem I have is with the fundamental numbers. If in 2010 the US produces 9 million bbl/ a day but consumes 19 bbl per day, then the US imports 10 mil bbl/ per day. If however the US slashes bbl consumption per citizen down to lets say the level of Denmark or France, then the US breaks even. At UK levels of consumption, the US can probably start to export a fair amount.

You know the US was an oil exporter from circa 1920's to 1950's?

(Ach, just beaten to it. Us still exports more than a million bbl/d but imports around 8-10 million)

 

[Kevin R.]

Oil exporting countries don't export oil because they have oil, but because they have nothing else to export. That's part of the phenomenom called "The curse of oil".

And it's often a self-fulfilling curse, at that. Just look up what happened to Dutch industry after they started tapping their North Sea gas in the '60s, or Canadian industry today now that the oil sands are in production.

To the OP, I'd say that America being a net oil exporter post-1980 is only possible if it managed to get control of western Canada early in its history. With its OTL territory and reserves, I'd say it can only be done by a) turning the US into a second-world country that doesn't have the industrial capacity or, more importantly, the automobile usage to consume all of its oil, or b) putting America on an alternative energy streak in the '70s after the oil crises, reducing oil consumption to self-sufficient levels and allowing it to even export some on the side.

 

[Cash]

America is a major oil producer, but its own industries consume lots of it. If the United States was less industrialized, it would have more domestic oil to export.

70 percent of the oil used in the United States goes for transportation. About 25 percent is used by industry, so making the U.S. less industrialized won't have a significant enough impact to achieve the OP's goal. Reduce the dominance of the car for personal transportation and the truck for commercial transportation, electrify the railroads, and restore/preserve public transportation systems like trolleys, plus the early introduction of land use policies that discourage suburban development.

Start in the early 1900s with severe taxation on automobiles, reinforce it during World Wars I and II with strict gasoline rationing and higher fuel taxes, do not build the Interstate Highway System and instead concentrate improvements on the rail system. That's a start.

 

[Riain]

70 percent of the oil used in the United States goes for transportation. About 25 percent is used by industry, so making the U.S. less industrialized won't have a significant enough impact to achieve the OP's goal. Reduce the dominance of the car for personal transportation and the truck for commercial transportation, electrify the railroads, and restore/preserve public transportation systems like trolleys, plus the early introduction of land use policies that discourage suburban development.

Start in the early 1900s with severe taxation on automobiles, reinforce it during World Wars I and II with strict gasoline rationing and higher fuel taxes, do not build the Interstate Highway System and instead concentrate improvements on the rail system. That's a start.

Thats a big start.