Challenge: A French "Falklands War" in the late twentieth century

[Fellatio Nelson]

Ok, interesting. What were the French subs of the time like and did Indonesia have any? I think they might have had some ones from Russia at some stage bu not sure?

Ground forces could be interesting and the French route to get there might require them to go via South America (rather than sail through Indonesian waters to reach their islands)

The French were late in the day fielding nuclear attack subs - mid-1980s - because they developed theirs from scratch and priority was given to a fleet of nuclear missile boats (which entered service in the 1970s).

So, assuming a date of 1985, they may have had one or two in service and in condition to fight.

However, the Rubis Class are not the best SSNs out there, by far. Many drawbacks to them - but faster, better armed and with better crews than the Indonesians' subs.

The French had a lot of diesel-electric boats, most of which were very good and with very well-trained crews, but they are far slower; especially when transiting to the Pacific: take about the same time to get there as a large yacht!

The Indonesians had 2 modern German subs (don't know if they still had the old Whiskey subs, but I wouldn't have liked to be on one of those if fighting the French Navy: very noisy.)

 

[CalBear]

Ok, interesting. What were the French subs of the time like and did Indonesia have any? I think they might have had some ones from Russia at some stage bu not sure?

Ground forces could be interesting and the French route to get there might require them to go via South America (rather than sail through Indonesian waters to reach their islands)

French SSN's are not up to the top US/UK/USSR designs of the era, but they are more than a match for anything that Indonesia would/could possess.

To the larger issue:

One major difference between French and British policies in the '80's is that the French maintained a rather more aggressive position regarding their overseas possessions. The Argentines could, to a degree, be forgiven for believing that a Britain which had been reducing its military capabilities would not be willing to go to war over a flock of sheep. France, on the other hand, not only still had TWO full deck carriers, but had shown a willingness to go to great lengths to protect its rights in the region (Rainbow Warrior anyone?).

There is also the major difference that an Indonesian aggression of this scale would send alarms clanging across the Pacific. Unlike the Falklands, where the U.S. was faced with a bit of a quandry, since the Argentines are a hemisphere partner, no such issue would exist in the Pacific, amking the participation of the Us as well as Australia VERY likely.

 

[Jason]

Good point. Perhaps it is hard to see the premise for this thread occuring.

The only other possibility I can come up with is if somehow India decided to grab Mayotte but other than insantity I can't think why they would do it!

To the larger issue:

One major difference between French and British policies in the '80's is that the French maintained a rather more aggressive position regarding their overseas possessions. The Argentines could, to a degree, be forgiven for believing that a Britain which had been reducing its military capabilities would not be willing to go to war over a flock of sheep. France, on the other hand, not only still had TWO full deck carriers, but had shown a willingness to go to great lengths to protect its rights in the region (Rainbow Warrior anyone?).

There is also the major difference that an Indonesian aggression of this scale would send alarms clanging across the Pacific. Unlike the Falklands, where the U.S. was faced with a bit of a quandry, since the Argentines are a hemisphere partner, no such issue would exist in the Pacific, amking the participation of the Us as well as Australia VERY likely.

 

[SunilTanna]

At the close of WW2, France gets the Pelagie Islands as compensation for Italy being in the Axis. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pelagie_Islands

Some French settle there, many Italians leave, and Pied Noirs arrive after Algeria gains independence. By 1980s, the islands are running at a considerable loss to the French treasury, and the Pelagie Pieds Noirs are a quirky relic of the old (embarrassing) Colonial France. The French government is looking at giving the islands independence, or giving them to Malta or Italy or Tunisia or Libya, but French settlers oppose. The French military garrison has been run down to about 50 men...

Then Gadaffi's Libya invades!

 

[Fellatio Nelson]

At the close of WW2, France gets the Pelagie Islands as compensation for Italy being in the Axis. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pelagie_Islands

Some French settle there, many Italians leave, and Pied Noirs arrive after Algeria gains independence. By 1980s, the islands are running at a considerable loss to the French treasury, and the Pelagie Pieds Noirs are a quirky relic of the old (embarrassing) Colonial France. The French government is looking at giving the islands independence, or giving them to Malta or Italy or Tunisia or Libya, but French settlers oppose. The French military garrison has been run down to about 50 men...

Then Gadaffi's Libya invades!

Interesting, cos Franco-Libyan relations weren't always the best, especially when France was fighting back-and-forth in Chad in the 70s-80s against Libyan-backed forces (although still selling Mirage jets to them ).

Would make for a primarily naval operation and requisite amphibious/parachute landings: the French had one of largest airborne formations outside of the superpowers during that period, if reliant on poor transport aircraft, and much of it was formed from the FFL (they did that drop in Kolwezi in Africa in 1978 to rescue Westerners).

However, I can't see the US or anyone else being that thrilled about something like that going on in the Med during the Cold War.

 

[Thande]

OK, this seems to have sparked some interest. Any more ideas?

 

[SunilTanna]

Greenpeace invites many senior politicians school students to visit their ship, the Rainbow Warrior on July 10th 1985, when it visits Auckland.

The French Secret service tries to abort the planned bombing of the ship, but the message doesn't get through to their agents in time. The Rainbow Warrior is sunk. The school students mostly die. Many politicians die.

A new more left-wing government takes over in New Zealand, with most of the more moderate politicians dead, and the rest traumitized by seeing so many kids die in front of their eyes.

The New Zealand population is shocked by the tragedy, and the media whips up their anger, demanding a stop to French "aggression" (the bombing of Rainbow Warrior and French nuclear tests in French Polynesia).

Mitterand says "Non!"

New Zealanders boycott French goods

In retaliation, the French demand (and get) an EU import ban on New Zealand lamb and kiwi fruit. Britain reluctantly goes along with the ban, as quid pro quo for French support in the 1982 Falklands War.

The temperature keeps rising between France/New Zealand.

Diplomatic relations are virtually broken off.

The French increase the rate of nuclear tests in French Polynesia, to spite New Zealand...

The New Zealand is economy is failing, the population is angry, the government has no where to go...

...until somebody gets the bright idea to invade French Polynesia!

 

[Fellatio Nelson]

On a practical level, no way could the NZers have mounted an operation in the 1980s against any sizeable resistance.

Although much of the French overseas presence is little more than a paper tiger, they always had a couple of light frigates/corvettes armed with Exocet missiles in the Indian Ocean/Pacific region, in addition to FFL detachments.

The RNZN had 4 old (design) British Leander class frigates; very good for hunting subs, but little else, and no real logistic support to speak of. The RNZAF had a few Skyhawks and Orions, but none that could threaten the area.

If NZ built up their armed forces (marginally, given their size), with such poor relations with France the French would despatch reinforcements.

If the Frogs deployed a first-rate missile frigate, a submarine and a couple of Mirage/Jaguar fighters to the area, in addition to extra troops, any invasion would be doomed.

Now, if the Australians held a similar view and followed suit...

... but we'd have to ignore US intervention against either/all parties, as well as the British - who would definitely not support a war against either Aust. or NZ if they were in any form the same nations as they are today.

 

[SunilTanna]

The bright spark who decides to invade NZ is not in the military at all. He is a Fred Smith, fisherman.

Him and his mates, after one too many down the pub, plan to invade that night. However they are too drunk, and don't. However, the idea is circulated and spreads fast around NZ's boating community.

A month later, the FFL see hundreds of NZ fishing boats, pleasure craft, etc. coming over the horizon. They don't want to open fire on civilians, without orders, especially not on live TV... the French navy ships quietly slip away... so it's a peaceful takeover, and the French troops are disarmed. However, a NZ frigate with a small detachment of troops on board, escorts the NZ "fleet" to help keep order and protect the safety of not very ocean worthy craft. When the civilians come ashore, the detachment of troops come ashore too, to keep an eye on them.

They get carried away too, perhaps after having a few beers with the civilians, and end up raising the NZ flag. Fred Smith loudly proclaims, on live TV, that he "hereby claims the islands formerly known as French Polynesia, in the name of Queen Elizabeth II and the New Zealand people, as a new province of the Dominion of New Zealand".

Back home in NZ, cars take to the streets honking horns and other spontaenously celebrations, over their victory.

The French complain loudly, demand punishment for Smith and the other invaders, immediate evacuation of the islands and reparations (some French military buildings were torched), which annoys the NZ population back-home even more.

The NZ government didn't want to get into this situation... but to back down now, especially to France, would be political suicide.

 

[L'Empereur]

Djibouti works even after independence. There's still a French military presence there, so if they're attacked by the Somalis (seeking Greater Somalia), Ethiopians (wanting access to the sea after the loss of Eritrea) or Eritreans (for whatever reason, maybe they go Islamists) you'd have a war.

Except that now there is a US base in Djibouti too, so that would mean a war with the Us as well. Isn't that a bit too much for Ethiopia and Eritrea...?

/ Canada, Saint Pierre et Miquelon :

That could work. For instance, if France encouraged Quebec for its sovereignist bid (like Ségolène Royal recently), sparking some sort of revolt and big political trouble inside Canada. Ottawa might then decide to occupy Saint Pierre et Miquelon, as a retaliation.

 

[Ward]

The two French carriers would be valuable; however, the Super Etendards weren't the best, merely a cheap platform for the AM39.

The Crusader aircraft they operated were 1950s vintage and would have had difficulty in dealing with modern fighter aircraft, especially those armed with beyond visual range AAMs. (And French AAMs of the day were generally less efficient than NATO ones, at least until new ones were introduced during the mid-late 1980s, so perhaps they would have conceded and bought the American
AIM9L Sidewinder before going.)

Their Breguet ASW aircraft would have provided some measure of AEW, if they didn't adapt the RN Sea King version to their own helos before going.

The French Crusader had many up dates and the Crusader in the US nave had the Best kill ratioal in Vietnam of Any aircraft and it will turn with the F -16 .

 

[Wendell]

Greenpeace invites many senior politicians school students to visit their ship, the Rainbow Warrior on July 10th 1985, when it visits Auckland.

The French Secret service tries to abort the planned bombing of the ship, but the message doesn't get through to their agents in time. The Rainbow Warrior is sunk. The school students mostly die. Many politicians die.

A new more left-wing government takes over in New Zealand, with most of the more moderate politicians dead, and the rest traumitized by seeing so many kids die in front of their eyes.

The New Zealand population is shocked by the tragedy, and the media whips up their anger, demanding a stop to French "aggression" (the bombing of Rainbow Warrior and French nuclear tests in French Polynesia).

Mitterand says "Non!"

New Zealanders boycott French goods

In retaliation, the French demand (and get) an EU import ban on New Zealand lamb and kiwi fruit. Britain reluctantly goes along with the ban, as quid pro quo for French support in the 1982 Falklands War.

The temperature keeps rising between France/New Zealand.

Diplomatic relations are virtually broken off.

The French increase the rate of nuclear tests in French Polynesia, to spite New Zealand...

The New Zealand is economy is failing, the population is angry, the government has no where to go...

...until somebody gets the bright idea to invade French Polynesia!

That, or the Kiwis could just have an election

 

[Wendell]

Good point. Perhaps it is hard to see the premise for this thread occuring.

The only other possibility I can come up with is if somehow India decided to grab Mayotte but other than insantity I can't think why they would do it!

How about Mauritius claiming Reunion, and India, for some odd reason, vows any necessary armed support to Mauritius in the event of an armed struggle? That seems slightly more plausible.

 

[Wendell]

Possibly a more militant Mexico? could it get some ideas?

How about Brazil asserting claims to French Guiana, Martinique, and Guadeloupe?

Or Italy claiming Corsica?

 

[SunilTanna]

That, or the Kiwis could just have an election

Read part II (already posted).... and assume Fred Smith's drunken crusade happens before any elections... BTW I made a typo in the first line, Fred Smith didn't invade NZ, he invaded French Polynesia

 

[Alcuin]

Finally there's Guadeloupe and Martinique, which might attract the attention of either the Dominican Republic

Umm, they're close to Dominica, not the Dominican Republic. Dominica's a British possession and neither St Kitts and Nevis, nor Barbados have anything like sufficient forces.

 

[CalBear]

Unless you bring in some butterflies the size of condors, you won't see a fellow NATO member trying this level of idiocy. The ROI is way too low for the risk.

Brazil has no historic claim on any French territory, regardless of how far back you chose to go (unlike Argentina) & it also hasn't shown much in the way of aggressive expansion in this century, so that seems to be a questionable POD.

Libya would be interesting, if some reasonable point of invasion could be located. They were just about nuts enough to do something this monumentally stupid, I just can't find anywhere that they could strike, given their logistical limitations. (BTW: I would happily put $20 on fifty Legionnaires against any number of troops that Libya could put onto any island in the Med.)

You would need to use some foolish government in the Indian or Pacific Oceans. Indonesia MIGHT, given the right circumstances, do something that dumb, same for some Third World dictator along the African coast. No chance that New Zealand is stupid enough to do this, especially when REDUCING military spending.

The Falklands were/are just about unique. They were far enough away from the U.S. that the Argentine actions did not directly threaten vital U.S. interests but they were in the hemisphere & Washington didn't want to be seen providing too much overt aid to the UK (whether that would have remained the case if the RN had actually stood a chance to LOSE is one of the unanswered What-If's of the Cold War). French Guiana is TOO close to the U.S. for Uncle Sam to let that kind of thing happen, the Carribean islands are even closer to U.S. waters (actually the entire Carribean is a wholly owned USN enclave), and Canada is, well... CANADA for Christ's Sake!

Anywhere else in the world the United States immediately steps in & stops the stupidity since it will upset the balance in the Cold War. Got to keep the focus on the main event.

One thing that MIGHT change IOTL if it was Libya that tried something, the USAF wouldn't have to fly AROUND France in '86.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Except that now there is a US base in Djibouti too, so that would mean a war with the Us as well. Isn't that a bit too much for Ethiopia and Eritrea...?

The US troops haven't always been there. And don't forget Somalia, which was actually something resembling a country at one point in its history.

Brazil has no historic claim on any French territory, regardless of how far back you chose to go (unlike Argentina) & it also hasn't shown much in the way of aggressive expansion in this century, so that seems to be a questionable POD.

They had a boundary dispute with French Guiana, but it was settled something like a century ago.

You can't really get a realistic Falklands analogue. You could try to use some French client state/area of interest instead. You can get wars with Libya, Syria, Somalia, Angola, and Nigeria over Chad, Lebanon, Djibouti, Zaire, and Biafra respectively. If you want to go really obscure, you can get them to intervene in a war between French-backed Rwanda and Soviet-backed Burundi (use Zaire to link up). Armed support for Saddam against Syria and/or Iran would also be an interesting possibility, but France is not very likely to go at it alone.

 

[Gonzaga]

Brazil has no historic claim on any French territory, regardless of how far back you chose to go (unlike Argentina) & it also hasn't shown much in the way of aggressive expansion in this century, so that seems to be a questionable POD.

Well, we don't need a claim. What do you think about president Fernando Henrique Cardoso becoming mad when Brazil lost the World Cup to France in 1998 and deciding to bomb Caiena?

Seriously now, we really had a president in the 1960s who planned an invasion to the French Guiana: Jânio Quadros. Why? Because the man was completely mad! Banning women from wearing bikinis on the beach gives to you an idea of his mind.

In August 1961 Quadros asked to the governor of Amapá, Moura Cavalcanti, to open a trail in the jungle from Macapá to the French Guiana border. It would be used by the troops that should invade the Guiana. But the plan was never done, because Quadros resigned in the same month.

Actually, I believe the Brazilian army would never allow it. The commanders hated Quadros, considering him very unreliable (and they were right). He would never have the support of the military leaders, who certainly would depose him if he tried to do his crazy plan.

 

[CalBear]

Well, we don't need a claim. What do you think about president Fernando Henrique Cardoso becoming mad when Brazil lost the World Cup to France in 1998 and deciding to bomb Caiena?

Seriously now, we really had a president in the 1960s who planned an invasion to the French Guiana: Jânio Quadros. Why? Because the man was completely mad! Banning women from wearing bikinis on the beach gives to you an idea of his mind.

In August 1961 Quadros asked to the governor of Amapá, Moura Cavalcanti, to open a trail in the jungle from Macapá to the French Guiana border. It would be used by the troops that should invade the Guiana. But the plan was never done, because Quadros resigned in the same month.

Actually, I believe the Brazilian army would never allow it. The commanders hated Quadros, considering him very unreliable (and they were right). He would never have the support of the military leaders, who certainly would depose him if he tried to do his crazy plan.

Well that is a new piece of historical fact for me to tuck away! Thanks for the information.

It does make the Brazil POD a possibility. Not a likely one, but a possibility.