You need to have the British perform a lot better in this ATL as well.
Not allowing Japanese expansion in South East Asia would work miracles.
This however means that the British need more resources in the Pacific, which itself means that something has to change in Europe as well.
Perhaps the British negotiate a peace with the Germans in 1940 just after France and then shift forces over to the Far East?
It would surely be a bigger gamble for them, now that the British can bring in more forces to South East Asia.
But in order for this to happen, one can have the Germans perform better in the East in 1941, taking Moscow in autumn 1941 (since they lost less aircraft + troops in 1940/1941 without having to fight the British). This would let the Japanese believe than in the long run (after the Soviet Union is beaten) the Germans can link up with them and in the end be drawn into the conflict, should the short envisioned campaign in South East Asia fail.
The Japanese attack, they mess up and the whole war is accelerated...