CH/WI: US Experiences More Than One Million Casualties

[Killer300]

Basically, what it says on the can. Get the United States into a conflict where it suffers more than 1,000,000 casualties. The closet it ever got to this was the American Civil War, with more than 600,000, but was about 300,000-400,000 short of it. Hence, this may be yet another scenario requiring a 2nd ACW, and with all the problems that implies.

But regardless, get a conflict on that scale. I ask this question because Wars this large have very interesting impacts on a country's culture. For example, the Great Patriotic's War casualties forever impacted how the USSR chose to carry out the Cold War, with the buffer states as one of the first results of this. Another example of this is with many of the countries that were more directly involved in the World Wars, like France and Germany.

So, how would a conflict on this scale impact the United States? How would US foreign policy, in the long run, be impacted by a conflict such as this? The first American Civil War arguably prevented another one from ever occurring because of how brutal it got, so something to the tune of hundreds of thousands of more casualties has... well, interesting(in a Chinese sense) impacts to consider.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Wiki claims the us lost 418,000 lives in the military. Since the word casualty includes sick, wounded and dead the total figure might have been close to a million.

Failing that, if the west faced nazi germany alone, us death toll would likely be that high.

Similarly for the invasion of japan. Estimated losses vary Wildly, but could have been that high.

 

[Killer300]

Wiki claims the us lost 418,000 lives in the military. Since the word casualty includes sick, wounded and dead the total figure might have been close to a million.

Failing that, if the west faced nazi germany alone, us death toll would likely be that high.

Similarly for the invasion of japan. Estimated losses vary Wildly, but could have been that high.

With the last, Operation Downfall was projected to be in the hundreds of thousands, at most. This still won't get you to a million.

If the West faces Nazi Germany alone, it wouldn't have done a ground invasion, it would've basically been an awkward staring match until nuclear bombs are invented to bomb Germany with it.

 

[asupackman]

I know it's not what you're looking for but I was watching a special called "Death and the Civil War" or something like that on PBS a while back and I believe they gave a stat that if the casualty rate experienced by the U.S. and C.S. combined were experienced today as a percentage of population it would be like us losing close to seven millon Americans today.

 

[Killer300]

I know it's not what you're looking for but I was watching a special called "Death and the Civil War" or something like that on PBS a while back and I believe they gave a stat that if the casualty rate experienced by the U.S. and C.S. combined were experienced today as a percentage of population it would be like us losing close to seven millon Americans today.

You're right, it isn't what I'm looking for, but I see your point. Again, the brutality of the Civil War, arguably, is what prevented another one from ever occurring.

 

[BigWillyG]

If we can include civilian as well as military casualties then what about having the US Civil War fought more brutally against civilians? Say have Kansas-Missouri type violence in all the theaters or Sherman style total war attacks on civilian property and infrastructure from the beginning of the war.
Could also have the Germans in WWII have a successful Amerika bomber launching regular raids on the US east coast or the Japanese navy win Midway and launch carrier raids on the west coast.

 

[Killer300]

If we can include civilian as well as military casualties then what about having the US Civil War fought more brutally against civilians? Say have Kansas-Missouri type violence in all the theaters or Sherman style total war attacks on civilian property and infrastructure from the beginning of the war.
Could also have the Germans in WWII have a successful Amerika bomber launching regular raids on the US east coast or the Japanese navy win Midway and launch carrier raids on the west coast.

Okay, the latter are so ASB that I don't even know where to begin.

The former, on the other hand... perhaps, however Sherman already did a rampage of sorts, and besides, upping the scale that much may end the conflict quicker for either side, preventing the rise in casualties.

 

[BigWillyG]

Okay, the latter are so ASB that I don't even know where to begin.

The former, on the other hand... perhaps, however Sherman already did a rampage of sorts, and besides, upping the scale that much may end the conflict quicker for either side, preventing the rise in casualties.

Why completely ASB? I'm not saying air raids by themselves produce a million casualties short of Nazi Germany having a functional nuclear bomb, but the POD required to make these happen like Britain surrendering in 1940 or an inverted Midway where the US carrier force is wiped out would lengthen the war long enough for total casualties to reach a million.

Civil War with more violence against civilians could lengthen the war though or at least make the "end" less clear as you have a war fought as much by irregulars as by armies. That makes the eventually Confederate surrender mean less and increases the level of violence during Reconstruction to the point where the war doesn't really end for 10 years or so. Think the long, drawn out violence in the Vendee or the Mexican Revolution.

 

[Killer300]

Why completely ASB? I'm not saying air raids by themselves produce a million casualties short of Nazi Germany having a functional nuclear bomb, but the POD required to make these happen like Britain surrendering in 1940 or an inverted Midway where the US carrier force is wiped out would lengthen the war long enough for total casualties to reach a million.

Civil War with more violence against civilians could lengthen the war though or at least make the "end" less clear as you have a war fought as much by irregulars as by armies. That makes the eventually Confederate surrender mean less and increases the level of violence during Reconstruction to the point where the war doesn't really end for 10 years or so. Think the long, drawn out violence in the Vendee or the Mexican Revolution.

With the former, Germany doesn't have the resources for such bombers. At all.

For Japan, they aren't going to get that kind of victory at Midway.

Finally, for the Civil War, the problem with this is it could also lead to a World War 2 situation, where the Union makes it where there's no question it has won similar to what the Allies did. The potential brutality of this... is terrifying to behold.

 

[asupackman]

Did Turtledove ever give any statistics as to how many people died in North America in the Great War?

How about some how a stable nation developing in Mexico after it loses the war with the U.S. The U.S. is distracted by the lead up to and the actual civil war to destabalize it early on and it grows into a country that can challenge the U.S. and joins the central powers prior to WWI with the U.S. siding with the Triple Entente earlier to counter Mexico. When WWI breaks out in Europe the US and Mexico go to war and a stalemate (though it's probably more like the eastern front than the western front) leads to wave after wave of soldiers on both sides being sent against each other to be slaughtered for the full four years instead of just one.

 

[BigWillyG]

With the former, Germany doesn't have the resources for such bombers. At all.

For Japan, they aren't going to get that kind of victory at Midway.

Finally, for the Civil War, the problem with this is it could also lead to a World War 2 situation, where the Union makes it where there's no question it has won similar to what the Allies did. The potential brutality of this... is terrifying to behold.

Even with the resources of most of Europe and possible the Mideast? Weren't the Germans big issues with strategic bombers political rather than resource or tech based since tactical air forces controlled designs and once war started Germany didn't have the time to do projects like the Amerika bomber on a large scale? Those political issues can probably be changed, especially if you have a Germany fighting the US thousands of miles across the Atlantic as its main opponent or even just have the Ural bomber not be put on the back burner so they have experience in heavy bomber design and production before going for the Amerika bomber.

Modway was may too near run to not think about the IJN winning big.

Sadly I think that might be the only way to make this POD happen in the USCW.

 

[Killer300]

Did Turtledove ever give any statistics as to how many people died in North America in the Great War?

How about some how a stable nation developing in Mexico after it loses the war with the U.S. The U.S. is distracted by the lead up to and the actual civil war to destabalize it early on and it grows into a country that can challenge the U.S. and joins the central powers prior to WWI with the U.S. siding with the Triple Entente earlier to counter Mexico. When WWI breaks out in Europe the US and Mexico go to war and a stalemate (though it's probably more like the eastern front than the western front) leads to wave after wave of soldiers on both sides being sent against each other to be slaughtered for the full four years instead of just one.

Okay, this would require a massive slaughter of butterflies for World War 1 to look anything like itself in OTL, and that isn't exactly plausible.

 

[asupackman]

Okay, this would require a massive slaughter of butterflies for World War 1 to look anything like itself in OTL, and that isn't exactly plausible.

How so?



.....

 

[Killer300]

How so?



.....

For one, this is many decades before World War 1. Because of how the butterfly effect works, even though it's on another continent, it will still heavily impact Europe, changing its politics enough to either prevent World War 1 as we know it, or at least change the players involved.

 

[asupackman]

For one, this is many decades before World War 1. Because of how the butterfly effect works, even though it's on another continent, it will still heavily impact Europe, changing its politics enough to either prevent World War 1 as we know it, or at least change the players involved.

It doesnt mean that the first world war still doesnt happen, it may be adjusted a few years one way or the other and some of the actors may change but there's still a good chance it happens.

How about this, Kennedy fails to handle the Cuban Missle Crisis and a full scale nuclear war erupts with multiple cities and bases all over the world destroyed?

 

[Killer300]

It doesnt mean that the first world war still doesnt happen, it may be adjusted a few years one way or the other and some of the actors may change but there's still a good chance it happens.

How about this, Kennedy fails to handle the Cuban Missle Crisis and a full scale nuclear war erupts with multiple cities and bases all over the world destroyed?

With the latter... I'm shocked we got this far without someone bringing up the nuclear option. And honestly, as a last resort, I guess, but really, it feels sort of like a... lazy option, because it destroys too much as a side effect.

The first, no, however it would probably be radically different, among other things.

 

[BigWillyG]

How about this, Kennedy fails to handle the Cuban Missle Crisis and a full scale nuclear war erupts with multiple cities and bases all over the world destroyed?

Any nuclear exchange during the Cold War could do it. Berlin Crisis in the later 1960s or the Able-Archer Exercise see's the USSR launch on the US would also work. Only issue I could think of would be whether anything remotely resembling the US would survive such an exchange since these are Apocalyptic scenarios.

 

[wcv215]

Any nuclear exchange during the Cold War could do it. Berlin Crisis in the later 1960s or the Able-Archer Exercise see's the USSR launch on the US would also work. Only issue I could think of would be whether anything remotely resembling the US would survive such an exchange since these are Apocalyptic scenarios.

The USSR only had a handful of ICMS during the Cuban Missile Crisis. That was the whole reason for it in the firstplace. Due to superior Western missile tech, and the NATO countries being a lot closer to the USSR than any of the Soviet's allies were to the US Cuba was the only hope the Soviets had of keeping up.

So in a Cuban Missile War the U.S. survives, it gets hurt badly, but it is largely intact. Europe would likely be hit a lot harder, and the USSR would be destroyed though.

 

[BigWillyG]

The USSR only had a handful of ICMS during the Cuban Missile Crisis. That was the whole reason for it in the firstplace. Due to superior Western missile tech, and the NATO countries being a lot closer to the USSR than any of the Soviet's allies were to the US Cuba was the only hope the Soviets had of keeping up.

So in a Cuban Missile War the U.S. survives, it gets hurt badly, but it is largely intact. Europe would likely be hit a lot harder, and the USSR would be destroyed though.

Be a good POD to figure out what the minimum is for whether or not a nuclear winter is a reality.

 

[wcv215]

Be a good POD to figure out what the minimum is for whether or not a nuclear winter is a reality.

I'm not sure, but according to the JGR the entire global supply of nukes right now amounts to about 150 MT, and that this would be enough to lower global temperatures by between 12 and 14 degrees over several years, and that by the end of the decade it would still be about 7 degress cooler than it had been before the exchange.

As I don't think there were enough nukes at the time (though I could be wrong about that) most likely a nuclear war would have lower the temperature by a few degrees, but I'm not sure enough to call it a true nuclear winter.