CH: Nuclear Weapons by 1900

Keep in mind something here. This isn't only nukes, but also the delivery system for them. So, that means you also need to have long range bombers by 1900 at least, or really massive artillery guns.

Regardless, your challenge is to advance science and technology enough for there to be nuclear bombs by the year 1900. In addition to that, no technology may be more primitive as a cost. So, things like medicine have to still be as far along as they were by 1900 at least, if not more from whatever POD you use.

Why? Well, I'm curious to see whether its possible make humanity advance technologically a lot faster. Additionally, such technological change would completely change how society functioned by such a date. Finally, we could use a TL that results in humanity having far more technological advance somehow.:p
 
From an old thread on earlier spaceflight:

Uranium was first purified in 1841. Radioactivity was discovered in 1896 when Becquerel left a uranium sample out near an undeveloped photographic plate and followed up on the discovery that the plate was clouded. This was an accident that could have happened at any time after the purification of uranium, so let's move it up to 1848.

IOTL, neutrons, fission, and isotopes (the scientific prerequisites for attempting a fission bomb project) were discovered over the course of about 40 years from the discovery of radioactivity. TTL, there would be fewer resources available for research and less scientific groundwork in other areas, so we can expect research into radioactivity to go significantly slower without a big boost from somewhere else.

Enter the reason for my choice of 1848 as a POD -- the Revolutions of 1848. Europe in general and Germany in particular has seen a wave of attempted revolutions, King Fredrick William IV of Prussia has declined an Imperial throne offered "from the gutter" of the revolutions and has instead imposed a monarchist constitution on Prussia, and Otto von Bismark has been elected to the new Prussian Landstag established by FWIV's constitution (his first elected office) as a representative from Saxony.

Meanwhile, a chemistry student at the University of Leipzig had decided to reproduce some experiments he'd read about to purify uranium. He accidentally irradiates an undeveloped photographic plate, notes the significance, and brings his discovery to the attention of two of the physics professors at the university: Wilhelm Weber and Carl Gauss, who perform their own follow-on experiments and realize the vast potential of this discovery. Gauss contacts a few local Landstag representatives about seeking government funding for the research, and Bismark in particular is intrigued by the possibility of channelling the rising feelings of German nationalism into pride in scientific accomplishment, and becomes a major sponsor of funding for research into radioactivity throughout his career.

Optimistically (in terms of pace of scientific advancement), TTL may realize the possibility of a fission weapon by the mid-1880s (35-40 years after TTL discovery of radioactivity), triggering a race between the Great Powers to develop such a weapon. Germany and Britain conduct successful nuclear tests within months of each other in the early 1890s, and both develop Teller-Ulman style H-Bombs by 1900.

Now, nukes are the hard part of a Project Orion-style space race. The vehicle itself is a significant engineering feat that may require a decade or more of well-funded work to fully develop, but the prerequistes for this work is roughly the technology needed to build a Dreadnought battleship. We have this know-how as well as the nukes by 1900 ITTL, as well as a cold-war situation between Britain and Germany to motivate a space race, leaving us 14 years before the 66-year window post-POD for this space race to land a ship on the moon.

That was written for a POD window of 66 years before the TTL first manned space flight, so it doesn't quite fit the 1900 deadline, and I think I'm pushing things as it is. I've got nukes by the deadline, but the delivery system would have to wait a few more years (at least, a delivery system more sophisticated than special-built super-heavy artillery or retreating past buried warheads)
 
Interesting, although does this also give the mechanism needed to launch said nukes? As that wasn't quite explained within.
 
Interesting, although does this also give the mechanism needed to launch said nukes? As that wasn't quite explained within.

Not before 1900. An Orion-style space launch vehicle is on the horizon, which could be set up to drop warhead from orbit, but I don't see a plausible way to get that ready by your deadline.
 
All you would need to do is have someone figure out that the Aeolipile/Hero Engine could be hooked up to some bands to turn a wheel and you advance science nearly 2000 years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeolipile.

Imagine: this device is demonstrated in Alexandria. A cunning member of the court, or or fhte merchant class realizes that the continuous spinning could be used for lifting water for irrigation and/or grinding grain.

Push everything forward and while you don't get an automatic industrial revolution, you can see clearly how we could be in the steam age by, say, 1000 AD.
 
Not before 1900. An Orion-style space launch vehicle is on the horizon, which could be set up to drop warhead from orbit, but I don't see a plausible way to get that ready by your deadline.

You don't have to have Orion mind you, but you need something to actually deliver the nuclear bomb by that date. Otherwise, sorry, doesn't count by the requirements of the OP.
 
You don't have to have Orion mind you, but you need something to actually deliver the nuclear bomb by that date. Otherwise, sorry, doesn't count by the requirements of the OP.

How about super-heavy artillery? A Schwerer Gustav has enough throw weight to deliver a Little Boy-sized nuke a distance of about 24 miles (enough to be useful tactically). They weren't built until the 1930s IOTL, but I don't see a firm technological obstacle to making them earlier (the "Big Bertha" howitzers used in WW1 were about half the size (1/4 the payload) as a SG, and they're updated version of an 1897 design), just a matter of cost and mission. If nukes are on the horizon in 1890, that gives a mission justifying the cost, with ten years for R&D.
 
How about super-heavy artillery? A Schwerer Gustav has enough throw weight to deliver a Little Boy-sized nuke a distance of about 24 miles (enough to be useful tactically). They weren't built until the 1930s IOTL, but I don't see a firm technological obstacle to making them earlier (the "Big Bertha" howitzers used in WW1 were about half the size (1/4 the payload) as a SG, and they're updated version of an 1897 design), just a matter of cost and mission. If nukes are on the horizon in 1890, that gives a mission justifying the cost, with ten years for R&D.

Sure, that can work.
 

Flubber

Banned
All you would need to do is have someone figure out that the Aeolipile/Hero Engine...


We really need an aeolipile sticky in Before 1900. This is the second time in as many days that some well-meaning poster has trotted out this pipe dream.
 
Last edited:
How about super-heavy artillery? A Schwerer Gustav has enough throw weight to deliver a Little Boy-sized nuke a distance of about 24 miles (enough to be useful tactically). They weren't built until the 1930s IOTL, but I don't see a firm technological obstacle to making them earlier (the "Big Bertha" howitzers used in WW1 were about half the size (1/4 the payload) as a SG, and they're updated version of an 1897 design), just a matter of cost and mission. If nukes are on the horizon in 1890, that gives a mission justifying the cost, with ten years for R&D.

Early and to a smaller part today warheads are fragile. Would they be able to harden them enough for a shell?
 

Flubber

Banned
From an old thread on earlier spaceflight...


And still just as wrong as when you first posted it two years ago.

In the old thread, Admiral Matt "reminded" you of the myriad of other advances that would be necessary and another poster pointed out that a vital part of your "POD", the handy undeveloped photographic plate, wouldn't be developed until the 1880s. Yet, despite your idea being decisively shot down then, you decided to share it again with us here. :rolleyes:
 
Damn. My technical knowledge isn't enough, is it?:(

Okay, to be fair, I should've known better seeing as how Orion is ludicrous for reasons Ian pointed out so well in an essay he wrote way back.
 
Early and to a smaller part today warheads are fragile. Would they be able to harden them enough for a shell?

I think the problem is bigger for implosion-type warheads, which require a lot of precision components to get the implosion to work right. A gun-type uranium warhead (like Little Boy) should be a lot more robust.

In any case, the problem is solvable. The first gun-type nuclear artillery shell was successfully testing in 1953 (from a 280mm howitzer, about the size of standard big naval guns in the 1890s and quite a bit smaller than heavy railroad guns), and implosion type nuclear artillery pieces designed to be fired from 6-inch field guns were developed some time later.

Miniaturizing and hardening will be harder tasks with 1890s tech, but they could compensate to a certain extent by designing the shells for bigger guns, requiring less miniaturization and allowing more size and mass for cruder hardening techniques.
 

Flubber

Banned
Damn. My technical knowledge isn't enough, is it?


No, it isn't.

John Fredrick Parker started a few threads a few years ago examining how more quickly atomic theory and it's subsequent uses could be developed. Unlike most of the technological/scientific illiterate douchebaggery that appears on these fora, those threads featured posts by members who actually knew something about the subject and I found the threads very informative for that reason.
 
We really need an aeolipile sticky in Before 1900. This is he second time in as many days that some well-meaning poster has trotted out this pipe dream.

I think perhaps eventually Hero might make it to the ranks along side the infamous Sealion. Obviously that is a long way off still I guess.
 
And still just as wrong as when you first posted it two years ago.

In the old thread, Admiral Matt "reminded" you of the myriad of other advances that would be necessary and another poster pointed out that a vital part of your "POD", the handy undeveloped photographic plate, wouldn't be developed until the 1880s. Yet, despite your idea being decisively shot down then, you decided to share it again with us here. :rolleyes:

And as I said in the earlier thread, there was a photographic process (calotypes) that was in use (admittedly, not very common use) in the 1840s that involved pre-prepared plates. That objection makes my POD very unlikely, but not utterly implausible.

The objections to developing a successful Orion spacecraft were also discussed in the old thread, but I won't rehash them here because they're irrelevant to the AHC at hand.
 
John Fredrick Parker started a few threads a few years ago examining how more quickly atomic theory and it's subsequent uses could be developed. Unlike most of the technological/scientific illiterate douchebaggery that appears on these fora, those threads featured posts by members who actually knew something about the subject and I found the threads very informative for that reason.

Do you have a link handy? I'm curious, and the search function is failing me.
 

Flubber

Banned
Do you have a link handy? I'm curious, and the search function is failing me.


I'm currently looking for it using a couple of hopefully unique search words. I might have to go the Google search route however.

I remember the discussion touching on the need for something as seemingly humdrum as cathode rays tubes and those tubes requiring certain types of transformers and high quality vacuum pumps.

The thread nicely pointed out the absolute need for the development of which at first seem unnecessary items before the item in question can be produced. Far too many people think that you can produce a steam engine, for example, in the same manner Zeus produced Athena: fully formed and without antecedents.

Addendum: Found the thread in question. I should used nuclear fission as a search term from the beginning. I used the site's search function, a function which I should note never behaves as badly for me as I read other people claim it behaves for them.
 
Last edited:
Top