CH: How does a Trent Affair war play out?

Vladimir

Banned
I know there's been other Trent Affair TLs, but this one will focus solely on what happens if the United States and Britain go to war. Tell us what will lead up to the war, how it will play out, and what will be the end results.
 
Ok, so lets assume that Lincoln's administration didn't release the prisoners and the Brit's reversed 30 years of diplomancy and declared war on the Northern States.

The first thing that would happen is that the UK would regonise the Southern States as a seperate country, and presumably would exert pressure on the French and Prussians to do so to (not sure that Prussia would, the French might however if they see the Brits are involved).

Next the Royal Navy would move into blockade mode and try to disrupt as much of the North's shipping as posible. This would lead to tension with the US trading partners in Europe and would cause significant trouble at home (given that the US's main trading partner was the UK). In addition the government would cut of spending in the US this may well wreak the US economy as company after company went bust.

I can't see soldiers being involved (except some burning out expeditions) by the Brits, and I really can't see the Americans trying to invade Canada (although the Brits would have to increase the number of troops there).

For me the outcome would be that the US quickly releases the prisoners and appologises to the Brits. The Brits then back off but support the Confederates who manage to hold their own and the US is split into two. More intrestingly would be Europe, as Prussia (whom I seem to remember supported the North in OTL) distances itself from Britain, whilst France and Britain become friendlier sooner.
 
Assuming the war happens at its most plausible from some really, really shitty miscommunications and much idiot-ball grabbing on all sides, the war will play out thus: war with Britain overstretches the Union's war economy at its most fragile, an impending CS victory and foreign recognition nips quite a bit of the more destabilizing and destructive anti-CS sentiment among Southern whites in the bud, and the USA politically has already lost the war no matter what it does on land or sea. If the Union Army of 1861 goes to war with the UK, its mostly inexperienced leadership and rank and file will be massacred by British regular professional troops, and the US Navy will be sunk in short order by the Royal Navy in the last great war of wooden ships and iron men.

The ultimate winners are the Hohenzollerns and the Romanovs/whatever, if anything, succeeds them as rulers of Russia, the ultimate loser is democracy as an ideology.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
1. Great Britain recognizes the independence of the Confederacy, followed shortly thereafter by France and then by many other states. While I do not see any European power dispatching actual military aid to the Confederacy, the South would benefit tremendously simply by diplomatic recognition. Confederate war bonds could be floated at much better rates, the Confederate currency would be greatly strengthened, and inflation in the Confederacy would be much lower than it was IOTL. This, by itself, might be sufficient to allow the Confederacy to win the war.

2. The Royal Navy sweeps the seas clean of Union merchant ships and blockades the east coast of the United States, wrecking the Northern economy. The Union blockade of the Confederacy would also be over before it began, allowing a steady flow of cotton and tobacco outwards and a steady flow of war material and other crucial imports inwards.

3. The Union would attack Canada, but would become bogged down by the resistance of Canadian militia combined with a solid and steadily increasing number of British regulars. Each soldier devoted to the campaign in Canada is one less soldier that can be committed against the Confederacy.

End result. The Union is badly defeated and the Confederacy becomes independent.
 
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