CH: A Chernoybl for Coal

Here's what I mean by this. Your challenge is, in a country that's a superpower or at least a great power, so China or the U.S. as examples, must have a catastrophe involving coal that causes as much damage as Cherynobl did.

Additionally? This damage must force political change in the way Chernoybl did in the country in question. It must fail to be covered up, and cause damage the country can't ignore.

Finally, it must have the impact on coal that Cherynobl did on nuclear power on the global scale.

I'm curious to see how hard this is, considering how damaging coal is, and yet how much it's used despite this.
 

katchen

Banned
Hmmm. Probably a super Centralia PA coal fire in a thousand foot coal bed in Montana that's impossible to put out. Or maybe it would be in Pennsylvania and West Virginia and spread from abandoned mine to abandoned mine, getting oxygen and creating a sulfurous cloud that engulfs Washington DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York the way the uncontrolled peat forest fires are polluting the air in Singapore right now and causing all kinds of land subsidence. That's what a coal Chernobyl might look like.
 
Coal's issue is that it doesn't work quick, a big enough mine fire ala Centralia could collapse a city theoretically, but there would be lots of warning

Coal mining is dangerous and kills quite a few people, China's official figures have mining kill damn near 2,000 per year, but that's a bunch of separate accidents

Likewise coal does a lot of environmental damage, but again there's no signle source

Probably the closest you could get would be a mine disaster killing over a thousand ala Courrières

The easiest way would probably be to make the Courrières disaster worse and have the French reaction be stronger, maybe Emile Zola's chimney is better ventilated and he's around when it happens to take up the cause and things spin out into something on the level of the Dreyfus affair
 
If such a thing were possible, it probably would have already happened. We've been burning coal for a long time now. If such a mega-accident did happen, people would probably perceive it as a one-in-a-million fluke, not a reason to get off coal. Heck, there's been at least one dam collapse that probably killed more people than Chernobyl; not many people are talking about getting out of hydro, and the ones that are are doing it for the sake of fish, not people.

Part of the issue is how people perceive risk. Statistically speaking, there's an argument to be made that coal kills more people every year than Chernobyl ever did. (I haven't looked into the stats on coal so I don't know if they're reliable.) But the damage is done by normal, everyday operation, not by eye-catching accidents that stay in the news for weeks or months, and coal doesn't have that same nuclear energy = nuclear weapons = APOCALYPSE thing going on. We need to give coal a similar psychological resonance.

I need to think about this...

Hmmm. Probably a super Centralia PA coal fire in a thousand foot coal bed in Montana that's impossible to put out. Or maybe it would be in Pennsylvania and West Virginia and spread from abandoned mine to abandoned mine, getting oxygen and creating a sulfurous cloud that engulfs Washington DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York the way the uncontrolled peat forest fires are polluting the air in Singapore right now and causing all kinds of land subsidence. That's what a coal Chernobyl might look like.

I have no idea if that's possible, but I really like the idea.
 

katchen

Banned
A super Centralia fire wouldn't be a Chernobyl. It would be more like the Macondo well blowout. A big mess that ends badly for all concerned.
 
Well, the reason I think this would matter in the 20th century more than others are for two reasons.

1. In the 19th century, and for that matter, the early 20th, there just weren't any alternatives to coal. Hence, it didn't matter how many people it killed, or how much pollution it caused, it was the only option. Imagine a world like that where nuclear was the only option(how I have no idea but just roll with it for example), would Chernoybl have done anything more than cause some tears, and then be moved on from?

Now, in the 20th century, specifically the middle and latter half, alternatives began to arise for coal en masse. Hence, my thought there is that this is an accident that makes people decide its time to move on from coal, if you will. For extra irony, perhaps Nuclear could be what people try to use as a replacement in the countries that can.

2. Communication. Once again, even if a massive coal disaster happened in, again, the 19th century, how many people would know about it? Maybe the entire country would, but certainly not the world.

By comparison, the entire world learned, eventually mind you, about Cherynobl. To the point where its impacts were blown out of proportion, what with some groups claiming a million+ were killed I think, and again, it arguably helped cause the Soviet state to collapse.

Hence, a massive coal disaster could, in theory at least, could get the entire world's attention, if the disaster was big enough.

That disaster would then bring into focus all the problems coal has.
 
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A super Centralia fire wouldn't be a Chernobyl. It would be more like the Macondo well blowout. A big mess that ends badly for all concerned.

Isn't that fire still burning to this day? That certainly has the permanence of Chernoybl.
 
Isn't that fire still burning to this day? That certainly has the permanence of Chernoybl.
There are however a few natural fires just like that ie Burning Mountain in Australia has been on fire for 6000 years, and Smoking Hills in Canada has been burning for a few
 
There are however a few natural fires just like that ie Burning Mountain in Australia has been on fire for 6000 years, and Smoking Hills in Canada has been burning for a few

For the one in Australia... how?

But setting that aside, isn't it in this case directly making something unusable? I bring this up because an impact of Chernoybl, I think, was making a lot of farmland unusable.
 
Aberfan happening a few times in a few developed countries could irreparably damage the reputation of coal-mining, but that doesn't discredit the fuel source and is something that can be resolved with other less drastic measures than ditching mining altogether.
 
Resolved with...?

But okay, comparing to Chernoybl again, that disaster technically doesn't really reflect the average nuclear plant, yet it still discredited nuclear power in the eyes of many.

Why would more disasters like that not do the same to coal?

In fact, seeing as how we have many examples of coal disasters here, why have none of them been able to discredit it completely in the U.S. or U.K.? I mean, to be fair, the latter had, for awhile, an economy rather centric around coal, but the U.S.? Outside of West Virginia, there aren't exactly tons of coal dependent places.
 
Resolved with...?

But okay, comparing to Chernoybl again, that disaster technically doesn't really reflect the average nuclear plant, yet it still discredited nuclear power in the eyes of many.

Why would more disasters like that not do the same to coal?

The problem is the psychology. Nuclear power has a psychological/symbolic resonance that coal power doesn't - there's the weapons connection, the way it's a symbol for centralized technological power, the mysterious and spooky nature of radiation. If we're going to have coal discredited by a Chernobyl-like event, we need to do more than just find a way to make a coal-related mega-disaster, we also need to create the appropriate symbolic resonances in the public.

I'm thinking some kind of classism. Coal as the symbol of the dirty robber-barons who keep the working man down and don't care who they kill etc. etc. Something like that.
 
There's another symbol to consider. Namely? Coal as cheap, lethal, junk that should've been abandoned years ago.
Basically, this would be a sort of interesting opposite to nuclear on the spectrum of psychology.

See, if nuclear represents scary new technology with terrifying possible side effects, i.e. radiation, than coal should represent out of date technology that should've been abandoned a long time ago.

An advantage here is that, unlike nuclear, the more the public looks at coal, the more disadvantages that come to light.

To further help the above, perhaps another power source, like Nuclear, could come dashing in to replace it(by groups interested in expanding that kind of thing). The idea would be high technology replacing out of date crap getting people killed.

This work?
 
There's another symbol to consider. Namely? Coal as cheap, lethal, junk that should've been abandoned years ago.
Basically, this would be a sort of interesting opposite to nuclear on the spectrum of psychology.

See, if nuclear represents scary new technology with terrifying possible side effects, i.e. radiation, than coal should represent out of date technology that should've been abandoned a long time ago.

An advantage here is that, unlike nuclear, the more the public looks at coal, the more disadvantages that come to light.

To further help the above, perhaps we could another power source, like Nuclear, come dashing in to replace it. The idea would be high technology replacing out of date crap getting people killed.

This work?

Maybe, the key is how we actually get the public thinking that way. There were the infamous smogs and so on, and acid rain, but as I understand it those were mostly solved with better filtering technology. Carbon emissions, I can't think of a way to get people worried about climate change much earlier than they did IOTL. And the other big problems - mercury and other pollutants - are invisible if you aren't a statistician.

I'm thinking about ways to change the early course of the environmental movement, make them look at coal the way they looked IOTL at nuclear and DDT, so we can get some of what you're talking about going. We'd need to either bring forward the emergence of environmentalism or push back the development of atomic energy - not just the power plants, the bombs, too. The problem is, I don't know much about the early history of environmentalism.

Something like this, maybe. History goes roughly as OTL until 1945. Then, we prevent the Cold War. This is a PoD I've pushed before, but I think it works. Let's say Stalin gets killed by a German bomb in 1944, and Beria or someone else conciliatory takes over in Russia. Wallace stays VP and takes over in the US. We stir up some extra trouble between the US and UK, just to add a little extra zip to the sauce. The US and USSR reach a deal on atomic disarmament in 1946, and reunification and neutralization of Germany in the late 40s. The Cold War never starts - the two superpowers don't like each other, but they're rivals, not enemies.

Meanwhile, atomic energy is in the hands of the UN, who don't do much with it. But one thing they do do is make lots of useful radioisotopes - this was a big thing in the late 40s, tailored radioisotopes for scientific research. See, the lovely thing about radiation is it's real easy to detect, and if you pick the right element, you can track anything. That's part of why the early environmentalists latched on so strongly to fallout as an issue - you can track fallout the way you can't track, say, mercury emissions from coal plants - or, at least, you can't track them unless you mix a radiotracer in there. Then you can track them easily.

So we use that to both get environmentalists worrying about coal power in the 50s and 60s, and put atomic energy as the benign supertechnology (that is symbolically associated with lovely lefty stuff like the UN and not weapons) that reveals the iniquity of the polluting industrialists and is waiting in the wings to save the day.

Then, once people are good and bubbling about the horrors of coal, we have a super-Centralia or something like it in the 70s.

I'm not sure that works - I really don't know much about the history of the environmentalist movement - but maybe someone else can fix it up.
 
Okay, it seems nuclear is associated with Big Government, and all the baggage that comes with that. So, it isn't just weapons, its the connection to statism in general, which isn't exactly an easy sell in the United States.

But approaching coal again, I think a three prong approach is needed here, from a psychology perspective.

1. Coal as Outdated junk that needs to be removed.

2. Get coal associated with, of all things, Communism. Both the Soviet Union and China use coal, with the latter using it a lot to this day. Perhaps if coal gets associated with either somehow, it could discredit it in the states?

3. Coal as a symbol of irresponsibility. The accidents in question could come from mismanagement, and through a media cycle, could become associated with the entire industry.

All three form this image of coal as outdated technology that's used by governments that don't care about the populace, or by the common man. The 2nd prong helps get this traction outside the Left in the U.S.
 
I am from Appalachia, and coal mining is seen by some to be a slow-burning Chernobyl (the other perspective being jobs at all cost.) It destroys ecosystems, poisons water systems, kills citizens with explosions and collapses. There is a segment of people who are very aware of its effects, and many more who are not. I think perhaps the best way to get the public against coal would involve people much more. The Coal Wars are little discussed but could probably be snowballed into something much more influential than they were. If you could set a POD around the turn of the century that caused even more extraction than we had. If you had mining companies literally pillaging the land with even less regard for the people, i'd guarantee there would be an armed insurrection. This is a bit off topic, but take a tour through an area that has been strip mined (especially if you knew it beforehand) and it will seem worse than chernoybl. Rather than just being inhospitable, the entire area is destroyed. If the american public doesnt care about that, perhaps (more, obvious) blood would have to be shed.
 
Interesting. And yeah, showing how destructive coal mining is visually could help, especially if paired with an event where it kills people in a nearby town.
 
Resolved with...?

But okay, comparing to Chernoybl again, that disaster technically doesn't really reflect the average nuclear plant, yet it still discredited nuclear power in the eyes of many.

Why would more disasters like that not do the same to coal?

In fact, seeing as how we have many examples of coal disasters here, why have none of them been able to discredit it completely in the U.S. or U.K.? I mean, to be fair, the latter had, for awhile, an economy rather centric around coal, but the U.S.? Outside of West Virginia, there aren't exactly tons of coal dependent places.

Resolved with the things the OTL British government did to make sure it wouldn't happen again. It hasn't happened again.

As for why it did didn't discredit coal, the main reason is that this occurred after people broke the rules by dumping spoil on springs of water. This wasn't an event that could be turned into 'if we continue to mine coal, this is guaranteed to happen at some point'.
 
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