Cesare Borgia, Lord of Northern Italy

maverick

Banned
Cesare Borgia, also known as the Duke of Valentinois and the son of Pope Alexander VI, Rodrigo Borgia, is of course one of the great figures of 15th century Italy: Condottieri, lord, Cardinal, ruthless villain, greatest beneficiary of the Church's corruption and nepotism, Lord of Imola, Forli, Rimini, Faenza, Duke of Urbino in Italy and Valentinois in France, amongst other places.

Then he lost it all in 1503, when his father the Pope died and Borgia was forced to fend for himself, just at the height of his power, a position made all the worse by his disease at the time, which Macchiaveli blames for his inability to prevent the ascension of Julius II to the Papacy despite his control of the College of Cardinals and his downfall, despite the strenght of his state and his ability to threaten Bologna and then either the much hated Florence or Ferrara.

So, what if either Alexander VI lives a few more years, or Cesare Borgia is healthier and able to defend and expand his domains in Northern Italy before his enemies can rally against him? Would he be able to subdue Ferrara, Pisa, Mantua and Florence, and perhaps force an alliance with Venice?

Given his control/influence in the College of Cardinals, he could swing the vote away from Julius II in favor of a more amicable Cardinal, such as a Spanish Bishop or the Cardinal of Rouen...made all the more interesting by the presence of Borgia, French and Spanish troops at the gates of Rome in 1503, forcing the cardinals' conclave to take place at the fortress of St. Angelo...

One of these maps show the domains of Cesare Borgia before his downfall, I'm not sure which, if there's an expert, please tell me...

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maverick

Banned
No one interested? too bad...

Here's a possibility for a best-case scenario:

Cesare Borgia, being healthier and thinking clearly, decides to use the army he has at the Gates of Rome in October of 1503 and supports the French or the Spanish candidate for the Papacy, not believing in the word of della Rovere, who after all hated the Borgias. If Borgia strikes a deal with Spain or France the thus remains in control of the Papal armies and lands, the next step I believe would be subduing Bologna, to later march on Florence and crush them with the Papal and mercenary armies.

Thus Florence is crushed, norhtern Italy is in Borgia's hand, with Pisa, Ferrara, Modena and other domains being satellites, and Venice being countered by the French or Spanish Alliance.

What would then happen might be a replay of the French invasion of Italy under Louis XII, in which Venice "invited" the French King in order to carve up Lombardy between the two.

If Spain is allied with the Borgias, the Venetians would try to use the French against the Borgia and the Papal estates...and if the French cardinal was elected in 1503, which would have been the most likely, the venetians might try to lure the Spaniards from Naples into war with Rome and the Borgia in the 1510s/1520s...
 

Susano

Banned
Well, as you can see, the land he conquered nominally belonged to the Papal State anyways. Which is kind of funny - with the support of his father he conquered regions nominally belonging to his father. IOTL, later popes gradually began to reextend their power to those areas. If instead Caesare is successful, we could see a secular Duchy of Romagna and the Marches, nominally a fief of the pope but de facto independant and (unlike the fiefs Caesare conquered) stable (instead of dozens of feuding and often times really outrageous signores only him as Duke in the region). Most likely that would also mean the Este keep Ferrara. because the Pope doesnt have the ability to project power there anymore. Bologna, with its important university, would probably remain papal one way or the other.

I dont know what consequences an additional Italian statelet would have, or rather dont think it would really have many consequences besides butterflies...
 

maverick

Banned
It depends on how competent Cesare Borgia can be...

Best case scenario is the one which I described...

Something more realitic might be just another Italian statelet under the Borgia family, used by the Pope and France to counter Venice and Florence.

What's interesting is the lack of Julius II, and the fact that the Romagna and the Marches are not Papal territory. Thus Rome cannot project its power in Northern Italy, not to mention the lack of Julius II and his foreign policy. This could also mean that the Colonna and Orsini families are not reconciled, even if that process began under Alexander VI, IIRC...thus adding to the instability of the region and the weakness of the Pope before the nobles and barons of Rome and central Italy.

A Stronger Venice and an overall more vulnerable northern and central Italy could be the result...
 

Susano

Banned
Could it be also conquered by Cesare, or other neighbouring family, as the Este or the Medici?

It could, of course, (and I think it was inf act Milanese for a while under the Visconti) but as said, due to the university I think the Popes would have a special focus on keeping it...
 
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