Cesare Borgia and Bologna

Yes, it's another Borgia thread:D

Cesare Borgia didn't manage to take Bologna as he had the other city states - Forli, Imola, Faenza, Rimini, Pesaro etc. In retrospect this was a flaw in the plan, as instead of deposing the Bentivoglios as he had the Sforza, the Manfredi, the Malatesta etc, he signed a treaty of perpetual friendship with them on 30 April 1501.

Bologna and Perugia held out against the papacy until il papa guerriero, Julius II, conquered them in 1506. Julius commissioned Michelangelo to make a large bronze statue of himself, that when the Bentivoglios retook the city, the Bolognese broke it down and sold the bronze to the duke of Ferrara. Said duke - former brother-in-law of Cesare, melted the bronze into a cannon named La Giulia.

That said, what if Cesare Borgia manages to take Bologna in 1501 instead of only signing a treaty with them?
 
Yes, it's another Borgia thread:D

Cesare Borgia didn't manage to take Bologna as he had the other city states - Forli, Imola, Faenza, Rimini, Pesaro etc. In retrospect this was a flaw in the plan, as instead of deposing the Bentivoglios as he had the Sforza, the Manfredi, the Malatesta etc, he signed a treaty of perpetual friendship with them on 30 April 1501.

Bologna and Perugia held out against the papacy until il papa guerriero, Julius II, conquered them in 1506. Julius commissioned Michelangelo to make a large bronze statue of himself, that when the Bentivoglios retook the city, the Bolognese broke it down and sold the bronze to the duke of Ferrara. Said duke - former brother-in-law of Cesare, melted the bronze into a cannon named La Giulia.

That said, what if Cesare Borgia manages to take Bologna in 1501 instead of only signing a treaty with them?

Adds to Cesare's impressive resume. Might cow some additional cities in the Romagna, the Papal States, and beyond, to "cooperate" with the Borgia project. Although it also could trigger certain Italian polities to unite against him.
 
I was reading that Bologna was sort of a gaping hole in Cesare's consolidation of the Romagna. So, if he were to include Bologna amongst his conquests rather than basically just going around it, could his ephemeral duchy be stronger?

Also, I was thinking of a scenario where Borgia has control of the Romagna, and della Rovere is still elected as Pope. One of the conquests in Julius II's reign was to subdue the lords of the Romagna to direct papal authority - i.e. the driving out of Bologna and Perugia's native rulers. Bologna itself (from what I read) had a relatively strong army and was quite prosperous at the time - and it was only by Louis XII's intervention that Borgia didn't take the city.

Also, if Julius takes Bologna on schedule (1506) then Cesare is more likely to be there (the Romagna), than what he is to be in France/Navarre/Spain, thereby possibly removing his death - although he could just as easily be killed when Julius besieges Bologna.
 
Another thing, I was thinking after looking at the map of Italy in 1499 Bologna seems to be a rather large state compared with the other states Borgia took, i.e. Imola, Rimini, Forli, Faenza, Pesaro etc. So most likely he moves capital of this state to Bologna for the time being. And considering also that Cesare was viewed as a vast improvement on the previous rulers in the aforementioned states by the local populace, what could he do with Bologna also under his scepter, and Julius' expansionist policies would also serve as a way of preventing Cesare (who would still be ill and thus agree to della Rovere's election) from becoming overly mighty?

What do you guys think?
 
Cesare's temporal power and legitimacy was solely at the discretion of the Papacy. Sick or not, Borgia was reliant on broken promises by Julius and promptly fell from power.

Beyond not having a hostile Pope on the throne, Cesare's hope for lasting power would rely on his having an independent power base, probably in conjunction with a throne or princedom somewhere on the peninsula. I'm not sure that Bologna would suffice for this, unless one of the greater secular powers of Italy would recognize it and more. Personal popularity among those he ruled was not enough on its own, or he probably wouldn't have been destroyed by his enemies.
 
Well, Cesare had a French army to back him up, as well as his sister's ties to the neighboring duchy of Ferrara. I'm sure he could ally with Venice when the League of Cambrai comes along.
 
Well, Cesare had a French army to back him up, as well as his sister's ties to the neighboring duchy of Ferrara. I'm sure he could ally with Venice when the League of Cambrai comes along.

I think the League of Cambrai might be a little awkward if the pope uses it to take out the Borgia duchy of Romagna-Bologna whilst slapping down Venice, and Cesare's allied to the king of France. Although, it might not be inconceivable that by this time Borgia's switched alliances again (they seemed to be rather opportunistic in that regard).

And while I agree that Cesare's dependant on the good will of whomever is holding St. Peter's throne, I think (with allies in the French, the Ferrarese and perhaps another Italian state who has the papacy as a common enemy) Cesare can perhaps prove more than/at least enough of a match for Julius II. The question though, wouuld be what would Cesare's relations with the next pope be like? And would Cesare be able to influence the 1512 election (providing Julius still dies on schedule) or not? AFAIK he was "friendly" towards the Medici, was he not?
 
Too many potential butterflies to posit Borgia's influence in high church circles given that Julius did a clean sweep of Borgia influence upon his accession and that OTL, Borgia was either imprisoned or out of the country to his death during Julius' reign. Medici - Borgia "friendship" appears to have been opportunistic and situational.

France did nothing for Borgia during his fall from power and subsequent imprisonment. I'd suggest that Borgia would have been better served in having the alternative and continued patronage of a native secular, anti-Julian Italian power ( assuming many things but especially Cesare not trusting Julius) --- perhaps by Venice.
 
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I've always been a bit of a skeptic re. the real possibility that Cesare might be able to forge a lasting state in Romagna and Umbria. He lacked personal legitimacy (other than through his father, pope Alexander), nurtured excessive ambitions which frightened or alienated all existing powers, and was singularly lacking in strategic vision. His father was already 73 when he died in 1503: even assuming that Alexander might survive, I doubt he stay alive another few years.

Cesare cobbled together his domains in just 3 years, from 1500 to 1503, and the clock was ticking fast: the problem was that rather than consolidating his holdings and working to secure a network of alliances (both on the secular side and in the Curia) which might survive the death of his father he was just looking to new acquisitions (Bologna, Tuscany, even the kingdom of Naples). This is not hubris, it's rather lack of vision.

Getting Bologna (which would not have been easy since the Bentivoglio were popular rulers in the city) would not have helped him.
IMHO he should have concentrated on the Roman Curia, trying to hold together the Borgia faction and to weaken the strongest player who was without doubt cardinal Della Rovere (whose family ambitions were pretty obvious and would have certainly worked to cross purpose with his own). The hope of reaching an accommodation with him went from poor to non-existent: maybe a campaign of character assassination might have worked (Della Rovere's background was certainly as bad as pope Borgia's) or worst case a few drops of the Borgia's elixir might have worked).

On the secular side the situation is a bit more ambiguous: the Medici and the Aragonese branch in Naples are not friends of him for sure; France looked to be his best bet, given his marriage with the king's niece and French presence in Milano (but once again the Valentino was deluded when he believed that he might deal with the king of France as an ally when he was rather considered a tool); the HRE was not interested in intervening in central Italy (when they joined OTL League of Cambrai was to participate in the carving of the republic of Venice), but in a frame of French containment they might be used as a useful prop; Ferrara - sandwiched between Venice and Cesare's domains - was only interested in keeping a low profile and avoiding being partitioned by the two neighbors; Venice might have been interested (carving Ferrara was a long-lasting ambition of the republic) and was also interested in good relations with France (as an anti-imperial prop) but it is doubtful if they would have backed Cesare when the chips were finally on the table (the Serenissima was also looking with interest at Romagna and were holding Ravenna).
It is a very complicated dance, and it might go in a number of possible ways.
It would take a more practical (and less ambitious) Valentino to sort it out successfully.
I am firmly convinced that the keys for Cesare to come out on the winning side are working on the Curia (and if possible eliminating cardinal Della Rovere) and consolidating his domains. This would be easier if his father survives a few more years. Even then I'd assess his chances at worse than even money.
 
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