Century of Fire: The Legacy of Kaiser Heinrich I

This timeline is a revised version of the similar one I posted last year, which was called "A Different Wilhelm II".


Prelude

This timeline has two significant PODs, which are independent from each other.

The first, less significant one is that the Confederates win the Battle of Gettysburg - or possibly that what was the Gettysburg Campaign in OTL went a much more different way which ended in a Confederate success. As a result, the British recognize the CSA and support them with weapons, supplies, bases for commerce raiders and so on, but not with direct military intervention. The CSA still loses, but the war drags on into late ´66, about 18 months longer than in OTL.
Butterflies from this cause Lincoln to survives the assassination attempt and is around to steer the post-war Reconstruction on much more amiable terms than in OTL, so that North-South rivalries, while they still exist, are less pronounced than in OTL.

Maybe this is picky, but Lincoln's assassination came about just days after Appomattox, and--I believe--was Booth's act of vengeance for the South's defeat. If the war dragged on into 1866 and Lincoln were able to implement a lenient Reconstruction, would there have been an assassination attempt at all, whether in 1866 or later?

Also, would the combination of a hangover from the not-quite-intervention of the British and a sizable German immigrant population have tilted the US toward a quasi-alliance with the nascent German Empire in the 1870s and beyond?
 

Sir Chaos

Banned
Maybe this is picky, but Lincoln's assassination came about just days after Appomattox, and--I believe--was Booth's act of vengeance for the South's defeat. If the war dragged on into 1866 and Lincoln were able to implement a lenient Reconstruction, would there have been an assassination attempt at all, whether in 1866 or later?

Well, in terms of a POD, is there really a difference between "Lincoln survives the assassination attempt" and "there never is an assassination attempt against Lincoln"?

Also, would the combination of a hangover from the not-quite-intervention of the British and a sizable German immigrant population have tilted the US toward a quasi-alliance with the nascent German Empire in the 1870s and beyond?

I think at the time, France fits the "let´s annoy the British by making friends with their enemies" bill better than Germany. There isn´t any real enmity between Britain and Germany ITTL before the 1930s.
 
Unless I've missed something earlier, you might need to retcon the part about the Austrian succession. Unless Franz Ferdinand has NOT sworn the Oath of Renunciation in 1900 (which he had to do OTL as a precondition to his being granted permission to marry Sophie), he cannot leave the Austrian throne to Maximilian. The key part of the Oath was that any children born of the union would be ineligible for the Imperial succession. I think it would have to take something pretty drastic for FF to consider breaking that vow, since OTL he was quite close to Archduke Karl, the next-in-line (and, of course, the man who became Thronfolger and then Emperor after FF's assassination).
 

Sir Chaos

Banned
Unless I've missed something earlier, you might need to retcon the part about the Austrian succession. Unless Franz Ferdinand has NOT sworn the Oath of Renunciation in 1900 (which he had to do OTL as a precondition to his being granted permission to marry Sophie), he cannot leave the Austrian throne to Maximilian. The key part of the Oath was that any children born of the union would be ineligible for the Imperial succession. I think it would have to take something pretty drastic for FF to consider breaking that vow, since OTL he was quite close to Archduke Karl, the next-in-line (and, of course, the man who became Thronfolger and then Emperor after FF's assassination).

Right... I had not thought of that.

Butterflying it away completely is probably a bit much.

How about a bit of creative rules-lawyering? Technically the son isn´t inheriting the throne of Austria-Hungary, but is installed on the throne of the technically newly created Empire of Austria. I guess if FF has a falling-out with Karl over the fate of Austria-Hungary, he might resort to this sort of thing to avoid giving the throne to someone who wants to restore Austria-Hungary to all its troubled glory.

Well, either this, or the new Emperor of Austria is indeed Karl I.
 

Sir Chaos

Banned
Century of Fire Intermission 2d: Aircraft Technology

With the differences in political developments and war fought, naturally there will also be some differences in how militarily relevant technologies develop.

By the time the war begins in 1943, aircraft technology in general is comparable to OTU 1943. Military aircraft were used in the Caucasian War, Russian Civil War and Chinese Civil War, as well as to a limited extent in various colonial conflicts (like the Indonesian war for independence), so there is a great amount of experience to draw upon.

For fighter aircraft, the backbone of the German air force is a plane roughly equivalent in performance to the FW-190; older models comparable to the Bf-109 are being phased out and are widely exported to allies and minor nations (Russia and Turkey, in particular, use a lot of these); twin-engined fighters (like the Bf-110) are around in limited numbers as bomber interceptors and fighter-bombers. The USAAF uses the P-38 (it´s simply too cool not to include) and to a lesser degree a plane similar to the early-model P-47, the British lag behind a bit with relatively early models of Hurricane and Spitfire equivalents. Japanese has an A6M which is much like the early, longest-ranged Zero, but only as escorts for long-range naval bombers; front-line fighters tend to be comparable to the J2M, Ki-44 and Ki-61, and they have begun to produce the FW-190-equivalent under license (Alliance reporting name: "Fritz").
Older planes, equivalent to the Bf-109, P-40 or Hurricane, are exported (or granted as military aid) and can be found in large numbers in the arsenals of many less sophisticated air forces.
The US, Britain and Germany are all developing jet aircraft; however, only Germany has begun producing a design, a twin-engine design similar to the OTU Me-262, and has equipped a single operational unit with the new aircraft just before the wars begins. Additional models, and the first US and British jets, are expected to arrive at the front lines within a year or so.

Bomber development is also quite similar to OTU´s 1943. Germany is in the process of replacing the old Stukas with more survivable ground attack aircraft; other than that, its bomber arm is mainly built around several models of medium bombers, some of which have a secondary anti-ship capacity, be it as torpedo bombers or because they are capable of (shallow) dive bombing. There have been some experiments with heavy bombers, but without a long-ranged escort fighter few planners really saw a point in them.
The USAAF, on the other hand, is built mainly around its strategic bombing capability; medium bombers play a very secondary role, and anti-shipping attacks (of a kind that works, at least) is strictly the province of the Marine air wings and the Navy.
The Japanese Army Air Force emulates the German air force to a great degree, although they put less emphasis on ground attack aircraft and more on medium bombers. The Japanese Navy Air Force operates several models of medium naval bombers, including a rather vulnerable long-range aircraft similar in capabilities to the G3M/G4M (this is the plane for which the A6M is still employed as an escort).

The US and Japanese carrier air wings are more or less the same as historically in 1943 (equivalents to the F6F/SB2C/TBF for the US, and for the J2M-A/D4Y/B6N for Japan). Germany has a small carrier arm as well, which however suffers from using obsolescent bombers (a navalized Stuka and an equivalent of the Fi-167 biplane torpedo bomber). Britain is in the process of replacing its carrier aircraft with US models (i.e. F4U/TBM equivalents) as a stopgap while more modern "homegrown" aircraft are in development, and France has launched its first two carriers which for now are also using US aircraft. No other nation has a "real" carrier arm, but several have leased/bought obsolescent carriers (comparable to for example OTU´s HMS Hermes) from the US or British which use old US/British aircraft.

Lastly, both the US and Germany have several models of helicopters in production, which are the moment are used for liaison, med-evac, as artillery spotters or in similar roles; Japan employ autogiros to a limited extent. As the war develops, it is likely that helicopters will be used for ASW as well, and that carriers will carry helicopter complements - and that helicopters will begin to replace floatplanes on cruisers and battleships.
 

Sir Chaos

Banned
Century of Fire Intermission 2e: Other Technology

Tank development in 1943 lags significantly behind OTL; there is little practical experience in using armored vehicles, and that is mostly in employing armored cars as scouts and, in case of the Russian Civil War, their use by the rebels to counter Imperialist cavalry.
The main medium tanks used at the beginning of the war are the German KP-2, which is essentially an OTL early model Panzer III (i.e. with the 37mm gun) and the US M2 Medium Tank; neither the British nor the CFN/warlords alliance produced medium tanks at the time, while the Japanese built a limited number of KP-2; most nations fielded light tanks equivalent to the Panzer II, T-26 or similar designs.

Both Germany and the US have made some advances in rocket weaponry. Large, unguided rockets for air-to-ground use are in use in US air units, and Germany is about to begin mass production of the R4M rocket pods (there never will be brainfarts like the Werfergranate air-to-air mortar or the Me-163 rocket interceptor). Development of guided anti-ship missiles, emissions-guidance (i.e. anti-radar) missiles and surface-to-air missiles is well underway, and the weapons should reach front-line units within a year or so.

Without the Washington and London Naval Treaties, warship development goes slightly different way from OTL; first and foremost, the "platonic ideal" of a 10,000 ton cruiser, 6"-gunned light cruiser, 8"-gunned heavy cruiser or 35,000 ton battleship does not exist, leading to a greater variety of ships and the emergence of the "combat cruiser" filling the gap between heavy cruisers (up to about 15,000 tons, defined by displacement rather than gun calibre) and small battleships (30,000 tons and up).
According to most navies´ doctrine, naval warfare is decided by a decisive battle between both nations´ battle lines, which is preceded by skirmishes in which submarines, lighter warships and carriers try to wear down the opposing battle line (and lighter warships and carriers try to prevent the enemy skirmishers from wearing down the battle line); the degree of emphasis navies put on battleships versus light units versus carriers varies from navy to navy, with the Alliance generally being more conservative, i.e. weighted towards battleships. As carriers take over the role of scouting for the battle line, battlecruisers´ role changes from scouts to carrier escorts (in defense against surface attack by enemy cruisers, and as additional air defense) during the skirmishing phase, and supporting the battle line with their guns during the decisive battle. All things considered, naval doctrin has not kept up with the development of aircraft capabilities (which are greater than they were when the Pacific War broke out in OTL).
 
I really wish I knew much about this time period to be of help, but I'm interested to say the least.

I am quite surprised that Tank development has kept up as well as it has given, as you admited, there has been little practical lessons. That is, the tanks are perhaps 1940~ OTL era in your TL's 1943. That's only about three years, give or take, with all the planning and experience we knew from various field testings and the grim reminder of countless millions blasted apart in trenches. In TTL we have only a few nations' observers and fewer nations' troops actuallky involved in the ordeals of the trenches in Manchuria & the Caucausus.

I am curious as to level of mechanized vehicles though - halftracks and whatnot.

I can't say much on aircraft as I'm totally lost there, though I am glad to see some field ready helicopter units around.

All in all, I'm rather happy with how you've set things up, but I do have some reservations.

1) US-French Anti-British feelings. What happened? Seriously? I'm not necessarily kicking the idea of the Alliance you have set up, because there's a general sort of goodwill amongst those Atlantic nations, but the progression from Anti-Brit to Ally-of-Convenient-Necessity is rather dimly lit.

2) British Anti-German feelings. Again, you mentioned that Britain didn't really have any issues against Germany until the 1930s. That's a very short time to jump on the bandwagon of 'Those Damned Huns.' Sure, I can see the Brits backing the Commies of the CFN (they backed Stalin over Hitler, after all, in similar circumstances), though here one might balk when Germany has that rump Russia in her pocket. Again, I'm not discounting this as a plausible reaction, but the progression is a bit muddled.

Admittedly a more in-depth TL might shed light on this from various character viewpoints, such as perhaps a Churchill chracter denouncing the 'Dark Imperialism' of Germany or somesuch.

I do wonder, however, what is going on in those areas of the world which are quiet. What of the remnants of Austria-Hungary? Where does Serbia fall in this new order? Is Poland still a portion of Russia? Any news out of South America? What sort of work is going on in Palestine - is David ben-Gurion about? Just a few questions...
 

Sir Chaos

Banned
I really wish I knew much about this time period to be of help, but I'm interested to say the least.

I am quite surprised that Tank development has kept up as well as it has given, as you admited, there has been little practical lessons. That is, the tanks are perhaps 1940~ OTL era in your TL's 1943. That's only about three years, give or take, with all the planning and experience we knew from various field testings and the grim reminder of countless millions blasted apart in trenches. In TTL we have only a few nations' observers and fewer nations' troops actuallky involved in the ordeals of the trenches in Manchuria & the Caucausus.

It´s only about 3 years behind OTL, but those were three very busy years. I figured since with the civil wars, there is a bit more tank operation experience (but very little tank-versus-tank experience) to draw on that in OTL 1939 (when WW2 began), tank development should be a little further along than in OTL 1939.

I am curious as to level of mechanized vehicles though - halftracks and whatnot.

Mechanization is mostly trucks at the moment; a lot of divisions operating Russia (mostly German) are motorized, to complement armored divisions, and the armored divisions themselves have motorized infantry complements as well - or rather, "Motor-Dragoner", "motorized dragoons", as they are called. (Dragoons ride to the battlefield, then fight dismounted; I´m a bit surprised the term didn´t catch on in OTU for mechanized/motorized infantry)

I can't say much on aircraft as I'm totally lost there, though I am glad to see some field ready helicopter units around.

All in all, I'm rather happy with how you've set things up, but I do have some reservations.

1) US-French Anti-British feelings. What happened? Seriously? I'm not necessarily kicking the idea of the Alliance you have set up, because there's a general sort of goodwill amongst those Atlantic nations, but the progression from Anti-Brit to Ally-of-Convenient-Necessity is rather dimly lit.

2) British Anti-German feelings. Again, you mentioned that Britain didn't really have any issues against Germany until the 1930s. That's a very short time to jump on the bandwagon of 'Those Damned Huns.' Sure, I can see the Brits backing the Commies of the CFN (they backed Stalin over Hitler, after all, in similar circumstances), though here one might balk when Germany has that rump Russia in her pocket. Again, I'm not discounting this as a plausible reaction, but the progression is a bit muddled.

Admittedly a more in-depth TL might shed light on this from various character viewpoints, such as perhaps a Churchill chracter denouncing the 'Dark Imperialism' of Germany or somesuch.

I realize I haven´t said very much about what happened in the West during all that time.

Anti-British feeling in the US has subsided gradually; the British aren´t exactly popular right now, but the average US citizen will no longer have to suppress the urge to hold his nose when dealing with Brits; besides, if they can deal with the CFN and the warlords for a good cause (for various values of "good cause"), then dealing with Brits isn´t really hard. Granted, Great Britain is a monarchy, whereas the US and France are republics, but it is a fairly modern and enlightened monarchy, as opposed to the more authoritarian regimes of the Imperial League.

The British were on pretty decent terms with the Germans while Heinrich was emperor, but his son Sigismund as different; he is closer to a toned-down and somewhat more competent OTU Wilhelm II, who unlike Heinrich will not avoid appearing as a rival to Britain. The 20s and 30s, pretty much from the end of the Russian Civil War, see a military modernization and build-up, including a naval build-up, which Britain sees as threatening is supremacy.

As of the 1930s, the US, UK and France are those nations with a relatively enlightened view when it comes to self-determination of "the people"; the UK and France are handling relations with their former colonies with something approaching genuine good will, as opposed to Belgians and Dutch fighting tooth and nail to keep what they saw as theirs. The Imperial League are seen as similarly repressive due to their fixation on restoring Russia and China to their former glories; Germany did relinquinish its African colonies, but they simply packed up and left, taking anything valuable with them.
You might say that Britain and France arranged an amiable divorce from their colonies, with joint custody of the kids, Belgium and the Netherlands tried to abduct the kids to prevent their partner from seeing them again, and Germany snuck out in the middle of the night, taking the money and jewelry but leaving their now penniless partner with the kids.

I do wonder, however, what is going on in those areas of the world which are quiet. What of the remnants of Austria-Hungary? Where does Serbia fall in this new order? Is Poland still a portion of Russia? Any news out of South America? What sort of work is going on in Palestine - is David ben-Gurion about? Just a few questions...

The Balkans are a relatively quiet region most of the time; the various Austro-Hungarian successor states quibble with each other on a small scale, but this has not flared up into war yet. However, with Germany and its allies at war, it is conceiveable that one side in a dispute might seek German aid, drawing them both into the war. If an irredentist emperor (not Karl or Maximilian, but perhaps a successor) sits on the Austrian throne, for example, and the war is going well enough for the Imperial League, that emperor might offer to join the League in return for assistance in restoring Austria-Hungary, by force of arms if necessary - much in the same way that Turkey ended up aligned with the League.
Serbia is more or less alone, since its big ally Russia has much more pressing concerns at the moment, and Russia isn´t really calling the shots in the League anyway; an irredentist Austrian bent on restoring Austria-Hungary might decide to add Serbia to his conquests, and Serbia can do relatively little to resist.

Poland is still part of Russia, yes, just like Finland. Just like Finland, the Poles are not very happy about it, but unlike Finland, they are right in the middle of League territory, and unless the League loses the war, they are probably destined to stay part of Russia.

South America generally looks like in OTU; they have their rivalries, and most rulers there have been thinking about how they can use the expected war in Eurasia to their own benefit. Naval bases in South America would for example be extremely useful for the League - for their submarines, if nothing lese -, but aligning themselves with the League openly would just get a nation in trouble, and would invite the Alliance to help their worst rival. Of course, we might find out after the war begins that a nation or several have been consorting with the League in secret.

Zionism is around, but has somewhat less traction than in OTU - among other things, because for all its other faults, this Germany is really no more anti-semitic than for example Britain or the US, and while Imperial Russia isn´t exactly nice to Jews, the Russian Jews mostly migrated south to the CFN; and even the current Tsarist Russia is a considerably less hostile place for Jews than OTU Tsarist Russia under Nicholas II. The Irgun et al exist, but enjoy less popular support than in OTU, and I imagine that, if there will be a Jewish state of Israel after the war, it would be created on somewhat more amiable terms than in OTU.
 
One question and one nitpick,

You wrote:
After a brief struggle, France decided to emulate the British model with its colonies with the "Community of Overseas Departments"

A department in OTL is a part of France. Part of the administrative structure, maybe comparable to "Laender" in Germany or "states" in the USA. Although with less autonomy. So using that term would indicate that they´re still a part of France?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overseas_departments_and_territories_of_France

In that article there is also the concept of "overseas country (French: Pays d'outre-mer)". Maybe you can adapt that?
Or you could use the Communauté francaise?

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communauté_française

Concerning airplane development roughly on par with our time line.
That´s a bit surprising.
The Russian, Chinese and Spanish civil wars in OTL weren´t that much of a boost for airplane and tank development I believe.
Up to the early 1930s biplanes were still state of the art. Only the threat of war in the second half of that decade led to the development of more "modern" designs. And then the war itself accelerated "progress".
Without any "real" war in this time line I would expect airplane development maybe roughly to late 1930s levels?
Hurricane, Me-109 that sort of thing?
 

Sir Chaos

Banned
One question and one nitpick,

You wrote:
After a brief struggle, France decided to emulate the British model with its colonies with the "Community of Overseas Departments"

A department in OTL is a part of France. Part of the administrative structure, maybe comparable to "Laender" in Germany or "states" in the USA. Although with less autonomy. So using that term would indicate that they´re still a part of France?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overseas_departments_and_territories_of_France

In that article there is also the concept of "overseas country (French: Pays d'outre-mer)". Maybe you can adapt that?
Or you could use the Communauté francaise?

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communauté_française

I think I will go with "Community of Overseas Countries" - "Communauté de Pays d´Outre-Mer"(? - sorry but I don´t speak French); politically it is quite close to the Communauté francaise.

Concerning airplane development roughly on par with our time line.
That´s a bit surprising.
The Russian, Chinese and Spanish civil wars in OTL weren´t that much of a boost for airplane and tank development I believe.
Up to the early 1930s biplanes were still state of the art. Only the threat of war in the second half of that decade led to the development of more "modern" designs. And then the war itself accelerated "progress".
Without any "real" war in this time line I would expect airplane development maybe roughly to late 1930s levels?
Hurricane, Me-109 that sort of thing?

I think with the threat of war around for a longer time, and with four more years to work with before the war starts, a level on part with OTL is optimistic but not completely unrealistic. Germany and Japan have been preparing for this war since the late 1920s, and the Alliance members for not too longer after that. Tank technology lags by a few years, because unlike the aircraft in general, tanks have not conclusively proven their wort yet.

Though, if I had the choice between scaling back technology and including into the timeline a proxy war that boosts military technology, I would do the latter.
 

Sir Chaos

Banned
This is the last intermission before the actual war begins.

Century of Fire Intermission 2f: Relative Strengths

Overall, the League is somewhat better prepared for war than the Alliance, but the Alliance has a significantly stronger industrial base (though the disparity is not nearly as pronounced as the Ally/Axis disparity in OTU). The CFN and the Warlords are, if that is possible, even more prepared than the League, but they are operating from a much smaller industrial base.

The League has deployed about half again as many troops against the CFN than the CFN can boost, with better training and a higher quality and quantity of armor, as well as more and (mostly) better aircraft. The Russian army and air force are about on par with most CFN, but the Germans are significantly superior; most infantry in the Russian theatre is Imperial Russian, most of the armor is German, and both countries deploy about equal numbers of aircraft here (much of the German air force is in the West).

Japanese forces (and their Chinese auxiliaries) in China are numerically inferior to the Warlords´ troops, but they have far better training, somewhat better equipment, and an air force that completely outclasses that of their opponents; furthermore, the warlords are very reluctant to send their troops to each others´ assistance or let others´ troops enter their own territory - cooperation does not come easily to them.

Alliance land forces are a match qualitatively for the Germans; their problem is that the West is too strongly fortified (and a pretty narrow and easily defended front line) to make a good avenue of attack into Germany. Alliance air forces (except for the US) are technologically somewhat inferior to the Germans´, but their equal in training and tactics, and (with so many air units in the Russian theatre) more numerous. Overall, the West looks like a stalemate, which is fine by the German high command.

Naval strengths are as follows:
US: 21 BB (5 new, 16 old)), 6 BC (all new-ish), 7 CV (all new-ish, 75-90 AC each), ca. 45 cruisers, ca. 140 destroyers, ca. 50 submarines
UK: 18 BB (6 new, 12 old), 7 BC (3 new, 4 old), 11 CV/CVL (4 new, 50-70 AC each, 7 old, 25-45 AC each), ca. 40 cruisers, ca. 160 destroyers, ca. 30 submarines
France: 9 BB (5 new, 4 old), 4 BC (all new), 2 CV (both new, 54 AC each), ca. 20 cruisers, ca. 70 destroyers, ca. 30 submarines

CFN (all combined): 1 BB (old), 2 cruisers, 23 destroyers, ca. 30 submarines
Chinese warlords (all combined): 1 cruiser, 9 destroyers, 6 submarines
South-East Asian nations (Phillipines, Vietnam, Burma, Malaya all combined): 2 BB (pre-dreadnaught), 2 CVL (both old, 20/12 AC), 3 cruisers, ca. 40 destroyers
These ships are almost all either relics from pre-Civil-War days, or obsolescent (sometimes obsolete) surplus ships transferred from US, British or French navies - the CVLs for example are the ex-HMS Hermes and USS Langley.

Germany: 6 BB (2 new, 4 old), 5 BC (2 new, 3 old), 3 CV (all new, 52 AC each), 16 cruisers, ca. 40 destroyers, ca. 220 submarines
Russia: 3 BB (all old, sister ships to the CFN BB), 1 BC (new), 6 cruisers, ca. 30 destroyers, ca. 40 submarines
Japan: 12 BB (6 new, 6 old), 8 BC (4 new, 4 old), 7 CV (all new, 63-72 AC each), 8 CVL/CVE (3 new, 30 AC each, 5 old, 27-48 AC each), ca. 40 cruisers, ca. 90 destroyers, ca. 80 submarines
China: 1 BB (pre-dreadnaught), 3 cruisers, 12 destroyers

These numbers are higher than OTU, but without WW1, and without a crash of 1929, I think economies would be strong enough to manage this higher force level.
For BB´s, "new" refers to something like the OTU North Carolina, King George V or Bismarck, "old" (unless explicitly stated to be pre-dreadnaught) to earlier classes equivalent to WW1-era dreadnaughts and superdreadnaughts. Old BC´s are similar in capabilities to Repulse/Reknown or the Kongo class, while newer ones are closer to the Scharnhorst or cancelled/converted classes like Lexington or Amagi.
Old CV´s are the relatively small, slow first generation of carriers, like Hermes, Langley or Hosho, while newer ones are classes like the Yorktown, Ark Royal or Soryu (note that there were no BC-to-CV conversions like the Akagi or Lexington in this timeline, other than turning "Fisher´s Follies" into something marginally useful).
 

Sir Chaos

Banned
Century of Fire Part VIII a

The Great War begins on Sunday, June 6th, 1943. Late the previous evening, League enjoys delivered formal declarations of war, effective at midnight Central European Time.

Conducting simultaneous operations on nearly opposite sides of the globe, in order to achieve surprise in all places, is not easy, but to a surprisingly large degree, the Imperial League manages to pull it off in the opening moves of their offensive.

In the North Sea, all three German aircraft carriers - Graf Zeppelin, Otto Lilienthal and Peter Strasser - are supposed to launch a dawn raid on the British fleet base of Scapa Flow.
Through sheer blind coincidence, a British task force consisting of two old battleships (Barham and Malaya) and seven destroyers, hastily recalled from an exercise after the declaration of war, runs into the carriers´ screening units. While the carriers launch their strikes ahead of schedule, a furious short-range battle ensues as four battlecruisers, two light cruisers and nine destroyers try to keep the British away from the vulnerable carriers. Both British battleships are sunk, along with three destroyers, in return for crippling one battlecruisers, damaging two others and sinking a light cruisers and five destroyers.
Shortly afterwards, the German air strike reaches Scapa Flow. As the German admiralty thought it impossible to use aerial torpedoes in the harbour, the carriers had swapped their torpedo bombers for additional dive bombers (the Imperial German Navy operated more carrier air wings than carriers, so as to have reserves to quickly replenish losses among the air wings), and 72 "See-Stuka" dive bombers, escorted by 48 fighters, attacked the ships at anchor. The only major warships sunk are the aging carrier Glorious and a heavy cruisers, but many more ships are damaged; of the seven battleships present, only one, Prince of Wales, emerges undamaged, and only two of the four others will be fit for duty again before the years is over. A number of smaller ships are also hit, but due to the limited number of bombers available, the Germans elect not to target shore facilities, except for strafing runs against nearby airfields by some of the escorting fighters.
The attack on Scapa Flow costs the Imperial German Navy eleven dive bombers and five fighters. Air attacks on the way home destroy another four fighters and score two near misses against Otto Lilienthal, but together with the losses at Scapa Flow, the Fleet Air Arm and Royal Air Force lose about 150 aircraft during the operation.


In the Russian Theater, the League largely fails to achieve surprised; CFN forces are prepared for the attack, and although the League gains some ground in most parts of the front line, they suffer (and inflict) considerable losses. The main thrust against the Donets People´s Republic, however, is quite successful, gaining 20 kilometers of ground on the first day.


In the Chinese Theater, the war opens with large-scale attacks by the Imperial Chinese puppet army, backed by a smaller number of Japanese troops. The troops of the local warlords fall back fighting, under constant attack by Japanese aircraft. At the same time, a major IJN surface force, covered by two fleet carriers and four light carriers, enters the South China sea and initiates an amphibious landing on Hainan.


One the headaches for the Imperial Japanese Navy during the planning for war was that their main opponent, the United States Navy, was out of their reach during the opening moves of the war. (Remember, Pearl Harbour is not a major fleet base ITTL at the beginning of the war, although this will of course change as the war progresses; no battleships or carriers stationed there means no incentive for the IJN to attack the place)
Then, fortuitously from the point of view of the IJN, they received word of a joint US-British-ANZAC fleet exercise that was to take place in the Coral Sea, starting on June 2nd and involving carriers and screening units from the participating navies. Kido Butai (the Japanese carrier force), minus its two oldest fleet carriers, was dispatched south to attack the assembled forces on the first day of the way.
Japanese submarines, supported by patrol aircraft from the German base at Rabaul, observe the Alliance forces until the war began, and Kido Butai strikes at 3 PM, almost simultaneously with the German operation at Scapa Flow.
Due to a mix-up in scouting reports, the first and strongest Japanese strike hits the Commonwealth task force rather than the more powerful US task force. The fleet carriers Albion and Invincible, the Australian light carrier Melbourne and a heavy cruiser are sunk, and the both ANZAC battlecruisers, Australia and New Zealand, seriously damaged.
Quick reactions, the inevitable delay between the first and second wave of Japanese aircraft, and the fact that they were somewhat further away from Kido Butai than their first target, allow the USN carriers to launch a strike of their own that just barely manages to get underway before the first Japanese aircraft arrive overhead. The carriers´ larger CAP and the more numerous anti-aircraft guns of their escorts allow them to put up a tougher fight, costing the Japanese more aircraft, but in the end they fare little better than their allies. Yorktown blows up after taking no less than eleven bomb hits, Kitty Hawk would sink several hours later, and Hornet´s flight deck is wrecked beyond shipboard repair, although the carrier can still make enough speed to retire under its own power; the escorting battlecruiser Lexington takes two torpedoes and has to be towed back to port.
The American air strike, following an educated guess after triangulation of the approach and return vectors of the Japanese strikes, reaches Kido Butai as the Japanese carriers are recovering their first strike, just before the second strike´s fighters could catch up with the American aircraft. Struck by two bombs and four torpedoes, Shinryu blows up no less spectacularly than Yorktown; her sister ship Donryu is crippled, but survives to be towed back to Rabaul for emergency repairs. Shokaku is damaged, but can still conduct flight operations, if only barely, and the fleet flagship Taiho is hit by a single bomb which fails to penetrate the armored flight deck. With only two undamaged carriers - Zuikaku and Taiho - remaining, and every enemy carrier reported sunk, Kido Butai withdraws north.
 

Sir Chaos

Banned
Costly for the Japanese, but effective.

Except, of course, that in true Japanese fashion, they withdrew when they had the enemy´s balls in a vise, rather than stay and sink the remaining capital ships. That´s four tasty battlecruisers they´re letting get away, plus a lot of cruisers and destroyers. Plus of course, although they don´t know it, Hornet will survive the battle, and be back in service before Donryu, and not long after Shokaku.

All told they´ve lost maybe 140 aircraft and aircrew, 30 in the attack on the British, 60 in the attack on the US task force, and 50 on the carriers that were attacked. The aircraft training problems aren´t quite as extreme as in OTL, but they are bad enough.

I like that the Germans are successful at Scapa Flow - nice touch.

Totally waiting for the inevitable mass-land battles.

Scapa Flow was essentially a poor man´s Pearl Harbour - luckier in terms of what ships they caught in port, but not as effective due to lack of torpedoes and special heavy bombs.
 

Sir Chaos

Banned
Something else to consider for the Japanese strike, as compared to Pearl Harbour: because it didn´t attack a place with civilian targets attached, and because it happened after the declaration of war, the outrage against Japan in the US should not be quite the same as after Pearl Harbour.

As for the declaration of war - although everything happened "by the book", the declaration was deliberately timed in such as way as to minimize the ability of the Alliance to prepare before the first strikes came. Sneaky, but well within "the rules". Overall, at least toward the Alliance, the League tries for "gentleman-like" kind of war, so as not to unnecessarily antagonize them, with a view towards the time when their goals are achieved and it is time for the ceasefire. Of course, the ideas of what is "gentleman-like" differ quite a bit between Germany, Russia and Japan - or between what is okay when dealing with the "rebel provinces" and what is okay towards the Alliance.
 
Hi.Just read this TL.Keep it up.Would like to see the entire TL as one complete scenario if possible.I have nothing against the posters but I'd like to read it uninterupted.:)
 

Sir Chaos

Banned
Hi.Just read this TL.Keep it up.Would like to see the entire TL as one complete scenario if possible.I have nothing against the posters but I'd like to read it uninterupted.:)

Thanks for the praise.

Some events in OTL 2011 causes the timeline to go into a bit of a hiatus, but I guess this is as good a time as any to continue.
 

Sir Chaos

Banned
Century of Fire Part VIII b

1943 in Europe

During the first months of the war, the League pushes south towards the gap between the Don and Volga rivers. With the bulk of the German and Russian armored forces pushing it, this offensive is mostly successful.
The city of Wolgograd is surrounded by Imperial Russian forces, but its defenders manage to stall any attempts to take it, and the League does not manage to fully close down the Volga river for supply and reinforcements into the besieged city.
As the offensive reaches the point where it was to have split to drive towards both the Caspian Sea and the Sea of Azov, CFN resistance turns out to be heavier and more stubborn than anticipated; the League High Command decides to forgo any attempt at a two-pronged attack and instead concentrate on reaching the Sea of Azov, cutting the western CFN off from their oil supply. In this, they are almost successful, reaching and surrounding the city of Rostov by the time the arrival of winter interrupts their campaign.

Meanwhile, the Entente sets their plan for opening a second front in Russia in motion. In early September, British and US forces land around Murmansk and capture the port city after relatively light fighting; what forces the Russian Empire had stationed up there were poorly equipped and poor trained garrison forces, as any formation suited for the front line was in the south, facing the CFN.
Covering the invasion force and the later reinforcement convoys is the bulk of the Entente naval forces in the theater; after Scapa Flow, these are fewer than the Entente would have liked, but they would have to do.
(9 US, 2 British, 3 French battleships, all older designes except for USS North Carolina and HMS Prince of Wales; 2 US and 2 French battlecruisers; aircraft carriers USS Enterprise, USS Wasp, HMS Ark Royal and HMS Indomitable; plus two dozen cruisers and about 80 destroyers)
Given the concentration of naval force they detect covering the invasion force, the combined League navies elect not to sortie at the time. (they have 6 German and 2 Russian battleships, 2 German and 1 Russian battlecruiser, the three German carriers, 15 cruisers and about 50 destroyers)

Entente forces establish a beachhead in the north and dig in, transferring large numbers of aircraft to captured and hastily constructed bases around Murmansk. At the same time, they make contact with Finnish rebels who are only too eager to throw off the Russian rule, now that with Entente assistance they think they finally have a good chance to succeed. By the time winter ends the campaign season, most of Finland is hostile territory to the Russians.
 
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