In a world where the Central Powers win, what would become of German New Guinea? It fell relatively quickly to the Japanese and British, would Germany get it back or would they let go of it to the British during the peace negotiations? Britain would probably be the least damaged Entente member, so I'm not sure how much leverage Germany would have in regards to New Guinea (along with the rest of their Pacific holdings and Qingdao).
Central Victory: Fate of German New Guinea?
- Thread starter Tresckow
- Start date
Depends on the peace deal.
Trading Belgium for the colonies is a very attractive deal for the UK. Obviously Australia can say no but if a bunch of German cruisers show up with an understanding with the British that it's about the agreed upon colonies there's little they can do about it.
The peace treaty is being drawn out in London, Germany cannot force the British to concede much, but they have some very good cards to play. First, they hold some greater if not all of France, next they hold all of Belgium, and they have likely carved up Eastern Europe and gained some settlement with Russia that opens her food and raw materials to flow to Germany. The latter has reduced the blockade to ineffectual, if some American interference hasn't already. If Italy has fallen away another gap has opened, Britain no longer has a good lever save simply not trade with Germany and sweep the sea of all merchants bound for Europe.
So all of the French colonies are on the table after we offer all of Germany's prewar assets. This really upends the British strategic advantages so giving back German territory first should look to be all Britain will concede. Frankly at this point it matters little what the Dominions prefer or want, London will cut the best deal they can with giving away even more. And that is a blow to the confidence the Dominions, and Japan, place in London. As you scale back the magnitude of a CP "victory" towards a stalemate then the horse trading gets more stingy. At worst we might see Togo, East Africa and Kamerun alone returned, these were either not fully conquered or come out of the French bucket. Next would likely be the Pacific islands, then New Guinea, and lastly Tsingtao. After that we might see Belgian Congo, French Congo, French territory bordering Togo and so on. In this era trading colonies should be far more palatable than paying out in gold, leaving Belgium under German rule and leaving France divided and partly occupied, these folks are the cheap money of power politics.
So all of the French colonies are on the table after we offer all of Germany's prewar assets. This really upends the British strategic advantages so giving back German territory first should look to be all Britain will concede. Frankly at this point it matters little what the Dominions prefer or want, London will cut the best deal they can with giving away even more. And that is a blow to the confidence the Dominions, and Japan, place in London. As you scale back the magnitude of a CP "victory" towards a stalemate then the horse trading gets more stingy. At worst we might see Togo, East Africa and Kamerun alone returned, these were either not fully conquered or come out of the French bucket. Next would likely be the Pacific islands, then New Guinea, and lastly Tsingtao. After that we might see Belgian Congo, French Congo, French territory bordering Togo and so on. In this era trading colonies should be far more palatable than paying out in gold, leaving Belgium under German rule and leaving France divided and partly occupied, these folks are the cheap money of power politics.
Deleted member 109224
Germany can't really force much on the British. The Royal Navy is too tough a nut for the German fleet to starve Britain out - if anything the inverse is true (Britain being the side more able to starve the Germans).
The Germans could perhaps get back parts of Cameroon and Togo, since they were mostly French-occupied, but Tanganyika, New Guinea, Tsingtao, Samoa, and Micronesia seem like lost causes. Australia isn't going to want to give up New Guinea and the British aren't going to be interested in pissing them off over it.
Because of balance of power issues, I could see the British being willing to hand back some colonies to Germany in exchange for Germany getting out of Belgium and France getting lighter terms. Plus, German mucking around in Africa probably isn't as big a deal if it's contained to Western and Western-Central Africa since it doesn't really get in the way of Britain's primary route to India and Asia.
The Germans could perhaps get back parts of Cameroon and Togo, since they were mostly French-occupied, but Tanganyika, New Guinea, Tsingtao, Samoa, and Micronesia seem like lost causes. Australia isn't going to want to give up New Guinea and the British aren't going to be interested in pissing them off over it.
Because of balance of power issues, I could see the British being willing to hand back some colonies to Germany in exchange for Germany getting out of Belgium and France getting lighter terms. Plus, German mucking around in Africa probably isn't as big a deal if it's contained to Western and Western-Central Africa since it doesn't really get in the way of Britain's primary route to India and Asia.
Didn't Oz still have a battlecruiser at this point?
Imperial Germany vs Oz could actually be a very interesting naval showdown.
Riain
Banned
Germany has WON the war, won it!
For Britain this means the defeat of the BEF in France, the uboats operating from bases beyond the Dover mine barrage, bombers and long range guns operating from the Pas de Calais all after 4 years of war.
In this situation Britain has to choices; give Germany what she wants or keep getting bombed etc.
In any such scenario I assume the USA never fell to the Entente side, likely less forthcoming with loans, requiring a sell off of assets and hard currency purchases, then either getting antagonistic or short cutting the blockade or both, so the USW campaign might not have gotten traction, it was here less necessary, that precipitates Russia bowing out at least by winter 1916, if spring then under some change in government, and that sort of cuts the war short with less development of aerial warfare. The British position should be bad but even if the BEF is lost as Germany has a more successful offensive season 1917, the British are fairly secure on their island. Far more so then in 1940. The war should end in armistice sooner than Britain feels truly desperate. The French have collapsed and can be tossed to the wolf, Russia is on her own, the Italians likely already sued for terms or will. Not hopeless but the time to play the cards and get Germany to be reasonable. I'm not a pessimist here.
Britain can simply offer up France and her Empire to get us back to some balance. Even in victory Germany is in debt, overextended and faced with a lot of unhappy new conquests. A-H is a mess, the Ottomans are a drag, the East is far less valuable than it looks and swallowing France should look like a bitter pill. I would look at how best to carve up the French Empire so as to give Germany less than ideal strategic position, buy back Belgian independence and try to keep France mostly intact, Germany here likely seeks parity at sea, and a symbolic respect for her becoming a top dog. If the King can swallow his pride and congratulate Wilhelm, the British likely get off lighter than expected, and the world goes on with a two "super" power paradigm.
Riain
Banned
I think a real weakness of this site is the lack of WW1 TLs that carry through to end with a CP victory. I think people think that a CP victory is pretty much OTL's war but with a different result, and don't give any thought to what it actually takes to make Britain sue for peace.
IOTL Britain's economy actually grew by a few percent whereas Germany's shrank by something like 27% and France's shrank by something like 23%. In a scenario where Britain sues for peace her economy will shrink, people will suffer serious rationing and privation.
IOTL Britain suffered few direct attacks; some naval raids and bombing that was light compared to WW2, so much so that there is a 9.2" coastal gun battery about a mile east of Dover in a place starting with L that's so unimportant to WW1 I can't find on the internet. In a scenario where Britain sues for peace these direct attacks will be nightmarish; long range guns will bombard Kent, the skies over Kent will be a war zone and regular naval bombardment will occur more regularly and further afield.
IOTL the BEF suffered horrific losses, but it was the price of victory. In a scenario where Britain has to sue for peace the BEF is defeated; perhaps a large part is captured while another large part is evacuated from France with the loss of its equipment so OTLs losses are the price of defeat.
When you add these things together the notion that Britain will continue to fight with a defeated army, suffering populace and under close attack in order to hold onto German colonies is laughable. I think they won't be able to cough them up fast enough to make the shelling stop.
IOTL Britain's economy actually grew by a few percent whereas Germany's shrank by something like 27% and France's shrank by something like 23%. In a scenario where Britain sues for peace her economy will shrink, people will suffer serious rationing and privation.
IOTL Britain suffered few direct attacks; some naval raids and bombing that was light compared to WW2, so much so that there is a 9.2" coastal gun battery about a mile east of Dover in a place starting with L that's so unimportant to WW1 I can't find on the internet. In a scenario where Britain sues for peace these direct attacks will be nightmarish; long range guns will bombard Kent, the skies over Kent will be a war zone and regular naval bombardment will occur more regularly and further afield.
IOTL the BEF suffered horrific losses, but it was the price of victory. In a scenario where Britain has to sue for peace the BEF is defeated; perhaps a large part is captured while another large part is evacuated from France with the loss of its equipment so OTLs losses are the price of defeat.
When you add these things together the notion that Britain will continue to fight with a defeated army, suffering populace and under close attack in order to hold onto German colonies is laughable. I think they won't be able to cough them up fast enough to make the shelling stop.
Everyone's been talking about what Germany can get out of Britain, which is all fine and dandy since they're both in the same continent and the Germans have some sort of leverage in a CP victory scenario, but what about the Japanese?
The Japanese wouldn't probably want a repeat of the Treaty of Portsmouth, and argue during negotiations that they won a war that their allies lost. And if the Germans wouldn't have none of this, they'll likely dare the Germans to sail their navy halfway around the world, come after them, and take the Pacific Islands.
The Japanese wouldn't probably want a repeat of the Treaty of Portsmouth, and argue during negotiations that they won a war that their allies lost. And if the Germans wouldn't have none of this, they'll likely dare the Germans to sail their navy halfway around the world, come after them, and take the Pacific Islands.
Riain
Banned
I think that to make the shelling/uboats/bombing stop in the face of Japanese reluctance I think the British would cough up North Borneo or something similar. I don't know if they'll give it to Japan for them to give up the German Islands or just give it to Germany instead of Japan returning them.
The best scenario for Germany is the Schlieffen Plan goes perfectly, Paris is surrounded and France surrenders by mid October 1914. The British forces are either captured or retreat back over the channel with out having to worry about air attack a 1914 Dunkirk retreat would be quicker and with less casualties. The Germans can the negotiated a truce with the British with their western flack secure and concentrate on the Russians.They may very well be happy to allow the Australians to keep New Guinea and the Japanese Micronesia and New Zealand Samoa in return for recognizing their possession the more resource rich Belgium Congo & French Indochina. German friendly puppet governments would be set up in both countries with their industries refocused on helping German defeat Russia.