Central powers win

What year is it most possible to get a Central Powers Victory?

  • 1914

    Votes: 13 38.2%
  • 1915

    Votes: 4 11.8%
  • 1916

    Votes: 4 11.8%
  • 1917

    Votes: 9 26.5%
  • 1918

    Votes: 4 11.8%

  • Total voters
    34

samcster94

Banned
What year did they have the best odds in??? I know the most obvious were at the beginning(just a better military strategy might have helped) and towards the end(when the Russian government was overthrown).
 

BooNZ

Banned
What year did they have the best odds in??? I know the most obvious were at the beginning(just a better military strategy might have helped) and towards the end(when the Russian government was overthrown).
1917 - the Entente were running out of everything towards the end of 1916, so a strictly neutral USA would force them to the peace table.
 
Britain, France and Russia were all suffering from internal unrest and mutinies in 1917, before the US entered the war, so that seems like the most likely option.
 

FBKampfer

Banned
1916 or 1917.

Germany wins at the Marne (but likely failes to take Paris unless the French decide to skedadle), and sets them up in a better position for 1915.

1916, and the Russians are going to pieces, throw another Army West for an earlier, smaller Unternehmen Michael, Paris goes, France goes, and then Russia goes with it.

Actual, official victory depends on how long something coherent reforms in Russia to make peace, and how long the British decide to be petty.
 
1914, when the Germans came oh-so close to taking Paris.

Quite.

At the time of Mons/Charleroi, the Germans had a golden opportunity to eliminate both the BEF and the French V Army; a blow which would have virtually guaranteed the fall of France and Belgium before (probably well before) the year was out.

The Russian side of the war could have dragged on through 1915, but the outcome there could hardly be in doubt. And with both France and Russia gone, there's little point in Britain continuing the war.
 

BooNZ

Banned
At the time of Mons/Charleroi, the Germans had a golden opportunity to eliminate both the BEF and the French V Army; a blow which would have virtually guaranteed the fall of France and Belgium before (probably well before) the year was out.
Any specific PODs?
 
At least three.

Von Kluck wanted to swing out further to the right, in order to outflank the French. Hr repeated this request on becoming aware that the BEF was in front of him. Both times, however, he was overruled by Von Bulow, and on appeal by Von Moltke, so that he had to make a totally unnecessary frontal attack.

When the Liaison Officer, 2nd Lt Edward Spears, arrived at GHQ, he found Sir John French and his staff all set to advance across the Mons-Conde Canal, to close up with Lanrezac's V Armee. He was able to tell tem that Lanrezac was under huge pressure and pretty certain to have to retreat. On learning this, French deployed his men in a defensive position behind the Canal. Had Spears for any reason failed to arrive, the advance would have gone ahead, and the BEF caught in the open. As it would have been outnumbered four to one, this could only have had one outcome, and the BEF's line of retreat would have taken it - and the pursuing Germans - directly across Lanrezac's.

On Aug 22 Von Bulow's II Army launched an attack on Lanrezac. This should have been done in conjunction with Von Hausen's III Army, but by some foul up he was not informed, and didn't get started till the next day, so that Lanrezac was able to escape.

Also, there's a fourth possibility, in which V Armee gets away but at the expense of the BEF. Lanrezac began his retreat w/o notifying the British, who thus found themselves outflanked on the right as well as the left (which Von Kluck was already threatening). They got away just in time. This situation might not be quite so bad from the French PoV, but would still be dangerous for them as the destruction of the BEF would endanger Lanrezac's own flank.

Enough to be going on with?
 

BooNZ

Banned
At least three.

...

Enough to be going on with?

If you managed to string those PODs together in a super combo, its only enough to win the Battle of Marne, but not enough for the immediate fall of Paris. Further, the Germans did not expect the fall of Paris to result in the immediate defeat of the French.

In 1914 the Germans were searching for a truly decisive victory over the French and the defeat or even total destruction of a single French Army does not cut the mustard. However, rolling all those additonal sixes does set them up quite nicely for victory in 1915 or more likely 1916.
 
If you managed to string those PODs together in a super combo, its only enough to win the Battle of Marne, but not enough for the immediate fall of Paris. Further, the Germans did not expect the fall of Paris to result in the immediate defeat of the French.

In 1914 the Germans were searching for a truly decisive victory over the French and the defeat or even total destruction of a single French Army does not cut the mustard. However, rolling all those additonal sixes does set them up quite nicely for victory in 1915 or more likely 1916.


It leaves the French line hanging in the air somewhere near Sedan, with three German armies, totalling approx. 700,000 men, on its flank with, at least for a time, literally nothing in front of them.

Paris can wait. If the Germans have any brains at all, they'll swing southward to trap as much as they can of the remaining French armies. If the latter stay where they are, they risk encirclement. If they fall back, they abandon the fortified line between Verdun and Belfort, allowing the other German armies, under Heeringen and the two Crown Princes, to pour across into France and threaten their other flank. And if they are falling back southward, as they probably have to, then even if they get away they probably finish up down in Burgundy or somewhere, leaving most of France wide open to attack.
 

BooNZ

Banned
It leaves the French line hanging in the air somewhere near Sedan, with three German armies, totalling approx. 700,000 men, on its flank with, at least for a time, literally nothing in front of them.

Paris can wait. If the Germans have any brains at all, they'll swing southward to trap as much as they can of the remaining French armies. If the latter stay where they are, they risk encirclement. If they fall back, they abandon the fortified line between Verdun and Belfort, allowing the other German armies, under Heeringen and the two Crown Princes, to pour across into France and threaten their other flank. And if they are falling back southward, as they probably have to, then even if they get away they probably finish up down in Burgundy or somewhere, leaving most of France wide open to attack.

I missed the POD where the Germans were unfettered by the limitations of logistics.

In reality, even if the Germans win at Marne, they are at the end of their logistical rope. Paris can wait, but it cannot be ignored, it must be masked by multiple German Corps. The same goes for Verdun. Even if the French lose an army, they still have superior logisitics/mobility, superior inteligence (aerial/ radio intercepts) and are fighting on the defensive. No matter how heavily you wank the German performance, France cannot fall in 1914, let alone Imperial Russia.
 
I missed the POD where the Germans were unfettered by the limitations of logistics.

In reality, even if the Germans win at Marne, they are at the end of their logistical rope. Paris can wait, but it cannot be ignored, it must be masked by multiple German Corps. The same goes for Verdun. Even if the French lose an army, they still have superior logisitics/mobility, superior inteligence (aerial/ radio intercepts) and are fighting on the defensive. No matter how heavily you wank the German performance, France cannot fall in 1914, let alone Imperial Russia.

Will it just be one army (well, one and a half with the BEF) that they lose?

IV Army has just met defeat in the Ardennes, and TTL now has three German armies, each one equal to or larger than itself, on its flank, in addition to the one directly in front. I can see it (if it's lucky) being forced southward toward Verdun and III Army. The Germans can certainly get that far. They did so even OTL. And at this point, the other French armies must either risk encirclement where they are or else abandon the fortified line and fall back into the interior, in which case the German armies opposite can pursue. That also allows supplies and reinforcements to be sent directly across the Franco-German border rather than having to detour through Belgium, which improves German logistics. Iirc, both Verdun and the Grand Couronne came close to being abandoned even OTL, so this is not fanciful. In short, it looks to me as if France is up a well-known creek sans paddle.

I never suggested that Russia could be defeated in 1914. I quite agree that would take longer.
 
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