Central Powers Win: What happens to France and Britain

In a scenario where the Central Powers win WW1 under Kaiserreich-esque circumstances (via the US staying neutral due to no "Unrestricted Submarine Warfare") with relatively lenient terms given to France and Britain (both of them have to pay limited reparations, accept Elsass-Lothrigen is German, and hand over some colonies but don't have any military restrictions (except for some of France's border areas being demilitarized or something along those lines)), how do France and Britain develop? Do we see the radical left take over ala Kaiserreich? Or would ideas akin to what we'd call fascism develop in France and Britain? What about home rule in Ireland? How does Ireland's road to freedom develop?
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
France already had a democratically elected socialist government during the war, so if anything the far-left would take the blame for losing the war, and France would turn fascist. As for Britain, many users of this website have pointed out that Germany is incapable of forcing the UK to hand over colonies.
 
If the terms are relatively lenient, you're less likely to the kind of crippling economic downturns and political strife that would give the radicals the leverage to take power. Maybe there's some instability/civil strife in France, but the government would retain enough power and legitimacy to keep a hand on the reigns and get the nation through the worst years. Long term, I think France is going to end up falling into a malaise; the lose in The Great War would demonstrate that, even with ideal geopolitical circumstances and all the Élan they could muster, France is unable to crack Germany and is out of options to compete politically, militarily, or economically with the new giant. Perhaps they take a post-WW 2 UK approach and try to play Greece to Germany's Rome; making a big push to establish French cultural supremacy (perhaps adopting a light socialist approach and encouraging domestic liberal ascendency in Germany) in Western Europe. Perhaps the demographic collapse causes the Empire to slowly crumble as she's unable to maintain an army and thus lose preferred access to markets/raw materials, leading to the nation slowly turning into a modern Medditeranian debt-state over the course of a few decades. But i highly doubt you'd see the Fascists take power.

As for Britain, it's a lot more varied. Ireland is probably going to see a partition similar to OTL: the Home Rule Bill is already on the books, though there's a distinct possibility the Irish Parlament in Dublin remains merely a devolved state within the Empire rather than making a push for full independence if there's a "Cold War Climate" between them and Germany (and cooler relations with the US; without belligerency on the later's part or German reparations to funnel into a repayment scheme Britain is going to be stuck holding a lot of debts that could very well serve as a sore spot between them and the American business community... which would remind them of the commerce they'd already been 'cheated' out of by the Blockade and could face in the future from protectionist policies put in place on the Imperial markets; both as a revenue measure to pay for war bonds and debts as well as secure British industry from increasing German penetration) in which Ireland might become aknife pointed at her hip. They are, in my opinion, far more likely to take a right-wing turn than France; unlike the later her forces preformed by an large admirably during the War, she bankrolled the Entente who not only failed to carry their weight and betrayed her by pursuing separate peaches/abandoning her, has the resources to fuel a national resurgence and pursue a autarkic policies, ect. Ideologically this probably looks like Edwardian/early Victorian condescension, protectionism, Imperial unity "One King, One Flag, One Fleet, One Empire", and perhaps some elements of WASP racism (they may be rivals with the Germans and Americans in a cultural sense, but they fact that those two nations were the ones challenging British dominance would be cast as proof of the race's superiority). Britain would distinguish it's higher destiny/position over its racial brother-nations as a matter of culture; saying Germany was too close to their barbaric roots while the Americans had strayed too far away, Britain's moderate dilution of the Anglo-Saxon character with just enough Celtic influence to dull the sharpest edges being the ideal.
 
Why are the British surrendering colonies (their own colonies. Returning captured German colonies is another matter) and paying any reparations? Britain has only lost in the sense that they are unable to prevent Germany from imposing its will on France.

France turning fascist is something of an Alt Hist cliche. Now admittedly many cliches are banal haltftruths not outright errors. One problem with it is that there are several different Far Right streams. I have trouble seeing a restoration of monarchy either Orleanist or Bonapartist but organizations like Action Francaise might actually get in the way of a Boulangist style movement. French politics will definitely be extremely divisive. Every month it will seem on the verge of a revolution and/or civil war but it could hold together though the constant turmoil will make the nation less than fully functional.

I concur that there will be something of a Cold War between the British and Germans. For that reason Ireland is not going to be granted full independence and there will be a partition but one small delta is that I think County Donegal would be included in Ulster because of the importance of Lough Swilly as a naval anchorage. Even though the Germans were unable to impose any terms on them the British citizenry are going to be enraged that they lost so many lives and spent so much money all for nothing. I see the major political figures becoming unpopular with the partial exception of Ramsay MacDonald. A new breed of politicians will emerge. One familiar name is Mosley but his opinion about Ireland will undermine him. Instead we will see some relatively obscure figures. And if you want a scary demagogue how about

Noel Pemberton-Billing
 
What about home rule in Ireland? How does Ireland's road to freedom develop?
Without the American entry in WW1 the British would introduce conscription to Ireland, starting the War of Independence early. With German support (as Ireland would be a great naval and air base for Germany) the IRA could cause some serious problems for the British, OTL the IRA's main problems were lack of weapons and training, a situation that would be greatly changed by German supplies and advisors. To give an example OTL the IRA were estimated to have at max only 3,000 rifles while the Germans tried to ship in 20,000 rifles for the Easter Rising and another uprising was planned in 1917 called Aufgabe P in which the Germans would ship 60,000 rifles into Ireland, although said uprising was cancelled by Devoy due to the German inability to land troops in Ireland.

Even if the IRA are unable to achieve full independence, the British would potentially have to tread more carefully with the Irish such as going with de Valera's External Association idea due to the possibility of German support for anti-treaty rebels.
 
Why are the British surrendering colonies (their own colonies. Returning captured German colonies is another matter) and paying any reparations? Britain has only lost in the sense that they are unable to prevent Germany from imposing its will on France.

To get Germany off the Belgian/French Channel coast, stop the u-boat war and and 'pay' to return large number of BEF troops captured in the final offensives that win Germany the war.
 
I've had a vague idea of a strategic partnership between Britain and France, where they set up government to government agreements to re-orient their economies to cover their respective weaknesses in wartime. Britain would set up agreements and legislation so that its coal and iron industries flowed into France first, while France would do the same to stimulate food surplus that would flow into Britain, along with other stuff like aluminium and oil. Setting up such agreements in peacetime would make the economies of Britain and France less vulnerable to blockade and invasion in wartime and make them more resilient, as one step toward becoming a sort of 'quasi' superpower like USA, Greater Germany and the Soviet Union.
 
To get Germany off the Belgian/French Channel coast, stop the u-boat war and and 'pay' to return large number of BEF troops captured in the final offensives that win Germany the war.

... and Germany needs to a Blockade ended to get the imports needed to stop the economy from collapsing around her ears, the British to evacuate occupied colonies and land in the Balkans and Near East, and her armies freed up to stabilize her new Empire in the east while demobalizing enough men to get her budget and industry back in order. Oh, and the OP says no unrestricted u-boat warfare, so the UK is still getting all its civilian imports. Is Germany really going to risk everything she's already gained to war exhaustion for the sake of seizing new money-sinks?
 
... and Germany needs to a Blockade ended to get the imports needed to stop the economy from collapsing around her ears, the British to evacuate occupied colonies and land in the Balkans and Near East, and her armies freed up to stabilize her new Empire in the east while demobalizing enough men to get her budget and industry back in order. Oh, and the OP says no unrestricted u-boat warfare, so the UK is still getting all its civilian imports. Is Germany really going to risk everything she's already gained to war exhaustion for the sake of seizing new money-sinks?

No USW doesn't mean that the UK is getting all its civilian imports, the Germans practiced restricted and 'sharpened' uboat campaigns with considerable success. Whats more with the heavy reliance on coasting shipping the coastal mining, surface raiding and uboats is a major issue, let alone bombardment of Britain by Paris and Langer Max guns and a nasty little air war over Kent when the Germans hold Pas De Calais.

Nor is Germany's economy going to collapse in the event of victory. IOTL 900 million marks worth of gold and 545,440,000 Roubles in banknotes was paid in 5 installments between 10 Sept and 31 Dec 1918 from Russia's indemnities, and with victory over France a similar rapid cash, gold and commodities injection will occur to buoy up the German economy.

All the while the British are under increasing pressure from Germany and bereft of Allies, are they going to keep fighting to keep the same money sinks?
 
Britain likely wouldn't suffer that much. With the exception of Ireland, Britain honestly loses very little. Sure, British pride would take a big blow, but it's had setbacks before. So Britain ain't gonna collapse anytime soon. And there's nothing that Germany can do to threaten them. Right now, the British have to focus on administering their profitable colonies, especially the British Raj. They'll either be fierce rivals with Germany or maybe enter a beneficial alliance with each other. Regardless, Britain is likely to lose very little from a German victory.

France, on the other hand, is a different story. They already lost a war against Germany back in 1871, and it almost resulted in a second French Revolution. This time, there's bound to be chaos and only the extremist parties will succeed. The new government will either be far-left or far-right. But France's future success is dependent on two key powers: Italy and Russia. France will need at least one of these countries to ally with in order to threaten Germany, primarily because France's population was too small in order to compete with Germany. If France can't overcome Germany, then it will forever be cast as an inferior power.
 
No USW doesn't mean that the UK is getting all its civilian imports, the Germans practiced restricted and 'sharpened' uboat campaigns with considerable success. Whats more with the heavy reliance on coasting shipping the coastal mining, surface raiding and uboats is a major issue, let alone bombardment of Britain by Paris and Langer Max guns and a nasty little air war over Kent when the Germans hold Pas De Calais.

Nor is Germany's economy going to collapse in the event of victory. IOTL 900 million marks worth of gold and 545,440,000 Roubles in banknotes was paid in 5 installments between 10 Sept and 31 Dec 1918 from Russia's indemnities, and with victory over France a similar rapid cash, gold and commodities injection will occur to buoy up the German economy.

All the while the British are under increasing pressure from Germany and bereft of Allies, are they going to keep fighting to keep the same money sinks?

Historically the Germans weren't able to put enough of a dent in British shipping with their U-boat warfare to event trigger the rationing of bread while their own population was scrounging the countryside eating roots and had their own already highly insufficent rations cut deep with water and sawdust. Sorry, but the British economy simply had sufficently greater staying power than the German one with any late war POD that its not going to be the one cracking first. With an earlier POD you certainly could get it, but consider that the British now also can put much greater resources into anti-submarine measures and will, after enough experimentation, get it right. You presume the British won't be changing tactics/innovating/learning at any appreciable rate despite the fact that France dropping out of the war (And Italy as well, presumably) gives them quite a bit of industrial slack to funnel into their own output... output like planes, large cannons, ect. of their own. That air war over Kent would quickly turn into a turkey shoot against the Gothas and their escourts by British fighters and ground-based flak (Even just conventional explosive/shrapnel shells from up-pointed artillery).

And what makes you think the French terms would include such massive amounts of largess? And don't try to say its a B-L equivilent: the situation for that treaty only existed because the Reds had basically sent the entire army home and had the country collapsing into anarchy around them. That's not a realistic ending to a war on the Western front, especially given the well-documented exhaustion and war-weariness of the German troops in the historical Kaiserschlacht. You'll get a victory, sure, but not the kind of abject groveling surrender that the regime in Petrograd was forced into.

The difference is they're THEIR money sinks. As @Tom_B pointed out, returning Germany's pre-war colonies (Returning to the status quo) isen't the same as handing over their own pre-war colonies. One isen't actually a lose, the other is. One is a move towards returning to "normal", the other is betraying their loyal administrators and soldiers. For Britain its not actually new money-sinks; they're used to paying for them. For Germany its taking on new fiscal burdans when she's already going to be busy digesting her gains. Germany isen't entirely unreasonable, and remember the OP says the terms are relatively lenient. Accepting the seizure of some French colonies (And likely seeing Italy's colonial empire shorn away) is about as far as that's going to get.
 
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