Central Powers Victory

samcster94

Banned
When was the most likely time Germany(and the CP's as a whole could have won??? I know keeping Russia out, or having it lose sooner would help. The cliche is a late version, which runs into issues as they lost a lot of soldiers in that 1918 offensive, and they were clearly doing badly economically. Unlike Nazi Germany or the Confederacy(where neither had much chance) this victory quite easily possible(even if not the most likely.
 
For total victory probably should happen before USA is declaring war to Germany. It is too possible win later but it would be harder and not so clear. But all depends about POD. But even then best case is victory before DoW of USA.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Me bad.
I always thought the "cliche" is an early german/CP win :
Moltke not panicking -> no unnecessary reinforcements (2 Coprs) sent to Prussia -> Battle at the Marne not lost -> french 5th Army mauled -> rest of french front rolled up and (almost) encircled at or behind Verdun together with another push of german 6th Army through the Trouee des Charmes (variant)
-> "home at X-mas"

EDIT :
Forgot the *irony* button
 
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Can you keep Russia out and still have a major war? It seems to me if Russia stays out its a small war in Balkans
On the other hand a worse Irish Crisis or Bette diplomatic action on the part of German could keep The British Empire out and with out BEF can France hold out in 1914?
 
Personally I think the most likely win is a PoD in 1914 setting the CP up for a victory in 1917; no country is going to be knocked out by Christmas given the ability to finance the war by various means, produce munitions in the millions and call up millions of men into the forces.
 
The Germans don't listen to Bulow and do better at Mons, possibly defeating the British sapping morale and allowing the Germans to keep to their timetable.

Joffre's command for the Southern option regarding the Marne is received delaying French forces a day giving the Germans even more of an advantage. The British continue to believe the attack is north of the Marne dividing forces and causing chaos. The Germans, with time and momentum, win the battle destroying the BEF and forcing the French back surrendering Paris. Perhaps this drives a wedge between British and French forces as the former feel they were used. Morale for the Entente hits an all time low, the French lose even MORE of their industry, and the Germans gain their Channel ports putting pressure on the RN.

By 1915 perhaps the British focus on peripheral theaters rather than the Continent, the French sacrifice hundreds of thousands in futile counterattacks to desperately regain their capital, Italy stays neutral, and the focus of Germany turns east leading to increasing pressure on the Russians. Maybe Russia breaks by 1916, the French Army collapses, and the UK settles for German colonies.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
When was the most likely time Germany(and the CP's as a whole could have won??? I know keeping Russia out, or having it lose sooner would help. The cliche is a late version, which runs into issues as they lost a lot of soldiers in that 1918 offensive, and they were clearly doing badly economically. Unlike Nazi Germany or the Confederacy(where neither had much chance) this victory quite easily possible(even if not the most likely.

The most likely year is 1917. There are lots of POD that will allow a CP win, and given the balance of forces at the start of the war, a CP win is the most likely result. You don't need anything as big as keeping Russia out or another Great Power. For example.

- A-H completes the encirclement of Russian 5th Army.
- A-H runs War Plan Russia.
- Germany does not resume Unrestricted Submarine Warfare.
 
A POD after the war starts that does one or more of the following should work:
Neutral Italy- reduces manpower AH needs to use to guard that border, plus I believe some German units ended up on the border so those would be free for either the West as reserves or East to try and push Russia harder
Capturing additional armies- from some of the previous threads mention was made that some differences early on in the West could have seen the BEF either encircled or pushed away from the French. Or for that matter capturing additional Russian armies in the East may cause them to not launch the offensive at AH bonus there would be more likely for Italy to stay neutral, also knock on effect of Romania may be neutral or join the Central Powers to try and keep Bulgaria from gaining too much and maybe getting a piece of Russia as well

And probably a just general improved performance, so say Germany mauls the BEF and captures a good portion of it early. Even if France holds them they may be further West. In addition the Brits will need to pull forces to replace the lost and damaged units of the BEF which can cause them to either ignore other fronts or reduce their commitments there. That in turn could have knock on effects of other fronts doing better.

And a big one I can think of is if performance by the Germans and AH pull enough British forces from the Suez to make capturing it a possibility. If the Ottomans (and maybe some additional CP forces) can either keep the Suez contested or in their control that would change the dynamics quite a bit as now the Brits are sending ships and transports from India around South Africa instead of being able to use a shorter route through the Suez and reach Southern France.
 

samcster94

Banned
Me bad.
I always thought the "cliche" is an early german/CP win :
Moltke not panicking -> no unnecessary reinforcements (2 Coprs) sent to Prussia -> Battle at the Marne not lost -> french 5th Army mauled -> rest of french front rolled up and (almost) encircled at or behind Verdun together with another push of german 6th Army through the Trouee des Charmes (variant)
-> "home at X-mas"

EDIT :
Forgot the *irony* button
both sides wanted it to end exactly that way
 
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