Central Powers Victory, what happens to the Ottomans?

If the central powers won ww1, we likely wouldn't see the immediate collapse of the Ottoman Empire, but as the Ottomans were the sick men of Europe, they wouldn't we able to take too much back, mostly just establishing client states in Egypt and the Caucasus'.

In such a world, what might we expect to happen to the Ottomans? Would they slowly crumble from internal rebels such as the Arabs and the Kurds? Might we see a wider version of the Second Balkan War with France, Britain and Italy joining to take concessions?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
If the central powers won ww1, we likely wouldn't see the immediate collapse of the Ottoman Empire, but as the Ottomans were the sick men of Europe, they wouldn't we able to take too much back, mostly just establishing client states in Egypt and the Caucasus'.

In such a world, what might we expect to happen to the Ottomans? Would they slowly crumble from internal rebels such as the Arabs and the Kurds? Might we see a wider version of the Second Balkan War with France, Britain and Italy joining to take concessions?

I have spent a decent amount of time on this topic. And the outcome is highly dependent upon the POD. You can have POD's where WW1 is actually a massive Ottoman wank, like in the first version of my ATL. Basically POD that have the UK skip Gallipoli but still have the CP win tend to be Ottoman wanks. On the other side, there is a whole series of POD where the CP win and the Ottomans do even worse. For example, have the British pull troops out of Flanders when compare to OTL either support Gallipoli will often result in CP wins since Germany has a lot more freedom of action in 1915. So would a POD where the British grand offensive of 1916 is not at Somme but at some non-Gallipoli location. And of course, there are a host of in between results.

So, it really just depends on the POD.
 
They collapse because they're incompetent af. Or become a protectorate á la Morocco.
Objection, the Turks held out well enough and carried the war into the 1920s unlike any other side. And we all know just how fast the Arab uprising disappeared when France/UK pulled the plug on their support after they've taken what they wanted.

After a victorious war the OE first fades into irrelevance, 15 million mostly agrarian people is not worth mentioning, after 1930 oil money starts flowing and demographics is picking up.
 
Much like with Austria-Hungary, it depends on when the war ends. If it's early enough, they get to live on, if it's late in the war, becoming a German puppet and/or total collapse becomes far more probable.
 
Objection, the Turks held out well enough and carried the war into the 1920s unlike any other side. And we all know just how fast the Arab uprising disappeared when France/UK pulled the plug on their support after they've taken what they wanted.

After a victorious war the OE first fades into irrelevance, 15 million mostly agrarian people is not worth mentioning, after 1930 oil money starts flowing and demographics is picking up.

My sarcasm is strong m8
 
Well, B-L had given them Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan (or influence there, at least).

But it is significant that even one Gurps AE TL where Germany wins WW1 thanks to an alliance with the northern US (against the CSA) has the OE falling apart.
 
My guess is that the Germans and A/H and Bulgaria would help the Ottomans solidify their hold on Arabia and their Rishidi allies.

Once the Ottomans discover oil though, the sick old man suddenly eats a can of spinach like Popeye and could focus on a lot of internal reforms to make themselves stronger. The Sauds would be crushed for good by the Rishidi before they’re probably tied to th House of Osman. Ottomans I could see remaining as a great power and a stablizer in the Middle East. The big competitor it would have would like be Iran, which would be under British control still or sided with the Americans if they break free and join up with the USA’s sphere of influence since it’s likely the Americans would be a third party beyond the Germans’ Europe and Britain and her allies
 
The Ottoman days are number. The oil would be a big boom for the Turks in giving some new life to the Empire, but I can't see them surviving for very long.
 
Much like with Austria-Hungary, it depends on when the war ends. If it's early enough, they get to live on, if it's late in the war, becoming a German puppet and/or total collapse becomes far more probable.

Very much this. The later the war ends the more the OE will have lost and given the state of logistics into the middle east there is no chance of taking it back militarily. Basically the survival of the OE will depend on the willingness of the Germans to trade their gains in Europe for things elsewhere.
 
I think the scenario here is that the USA fails to be drawn into this war but otherwise the cast is the same, the war is grinding out through 1916 when the Entente begin to scrape bottom for funds and manpower, so Russia is faltering, Italy wavers and the French cannot commit to yet another wave of offenses for fear of mutiny. As Russia weakens Germany chooses to break her rather than take more ground to the West, sends peace feelers that are too onerous and sends Russia into revolution while gaining the ground to free it from the dithering effect of the blockade. OE has lost enough to the UK but I suspect the Arab revolt fades if victory is not at hand, the British and French designs are becoming obvious, the Arabs waffling jump back to OE and the Middle East falls apart. The dreaded CP victory is really a massive stalemate, breaking economies, welling revolution and a Russia screw.

France gets nothing. I doubt the British can hold Mesopotamia if the Germans free troops otherwise wasted in the West, a better gain if the future oil is recognized as worth more and France finally nodding for an armistice. Yet more troops are securing Ukraine and could draw attention to the Caucasus and Baku. At most Britain demands Palestine but if they try to occupy the Islamic Holy Cities they might push all the Arabs off their bus. Even the Saud clan might try to find peace with the Caliph. Britain is loathe to withdraw and might be dislodged but I suspect they do. They are more worried about Ireland, Persia and the festering discontent from Imperial troops, salvaging the British interests in the OE might be better than hoping to steal some dirt. If France agrees to an armistice after Russia throws in the towel the UK's position crumbles, Germany can offer a withdraw from France in exchange for most anything they want, Belgium is a sticking point with Britain and giving up there gives Germany most of whatever Britain has taken, affairs in the Middle East fade to a side show as the CPs square up for a cold peace and slow rebuilding of relations as Russia catches fire and burns out of control. Here Britain may abandon all pretenses and cut a deal to back stop that fire, instantly the OE becomes a bulwark like Germany and given a blind eye to securing B-L from communism, praying they stamp it out.

That is my best case for OE, outside events undo its losses and take away the demands, the Armenian genocide is swept under the rug, debt restructuring and accommodation become the new order of the day. The OE will stumble and hobble forward through the next decades, most poor, mostly neglected, but oil will come and rather than a fractured Middle East, a multi-cultural, multi-ethnic but religiously united state has wealth to spread over the whole rather than sink it into petty little Kingdoms and backwaters suddenly paved in gold.
 
France gets nothing. I doubt the British can hold Mesopotamia if the Germans free troops otherwise wasted in the West, a better gain if the future oil is recognized as worth more and France finally nodding for an armistice. .

The crappy logistics into the middle east could never supply more than a quarter million OE troops during the war. The railway is single track and unfinished, and improving it through mountainous Anatolia took years in the 20's. After the British built up the transport net in southern Iraq and Palestine they were able to support a million men, troops and support labour. The Germans/OE are never taking back Mesopotamia militarily. They just can't supply the men to do so.

And Britain had a pretty good idea of what was under the sand in southern Iraq. Grabbing the suspected oilfields was one of their war objectives. They will not give them up without concessions elsewhere. For example forgoing a punitive peace with France and Belgium, which Germany may not be willing to do.

I can easily see a post war Britain keeping all of their extra-european gains, plus what ever they decide to nick from their crushed allies, ie the congo, while Germany dominates Europe after it all peters out. And then both powers have a nice cold war wwhile they spend the next couple generations tying to keep the lid on the mess until colonialism blows up outside europe, like OTL. and the German people get tired of sending the army in to prop up hated regimes in Kiev and Warsaw and Brussels, like the soviet union in OTL.
 
The Ottoman days are number. The oil would be a big boom for the Turks in giving some new life to the Empire, but I can't see them surviving for very long.


What do you mean by not surviving? If you just mean regime change that is certainly possible.

If you mean a break-up of the OE, I don't see why. The only minority group big enough to stand a chance of rebelling successfully - the Arabs - is divided six ways from Sunday (or Friday) into feuding factions, as remains the case to this day. It wouldn't be hard for the Turks to divide and rule.
 
The crappy logistics into the middle east could never supply more than a quarter million OE troops during the war. The railway is single track and unfinished, and improving it through mountainous Anatolia took years in the 20's. After the British built up the transport net in southern Iraq and Palestine they were able to support a million men, troops and support labour. The Germans/OE are never taking back Mesopotamia militarily. They just can't supply the men to do so.

And Britain had a pretty good idea of what was under the sand in southern Iraq. Grabbing the suspected oilfields was one of their war objectives. They will not give them up without concessions elsewhere. For example forgoing a punitive peace with France and Belgium, which Germany may not be willing to do.

I can easily see a post war Britain keeping all of their extra-european gains, plus what ever they decide to nick from their crushed allies, ie the congo, while Germany dominates Europe after it all peters out. And then both powers have a nice cold war wwhile they spend the next couple generations tying to keep the lid on the mess until colonialism blows up outside europe, like OTL. and the German people get tired of sending the army in to prop up hated regimes in Kiev and Warsaw and Brussels, like the soviet union in OTL.

That is certainly best case for the UK. And I think that is the usual outcome, but as you said, Britain might give up more to earn a better peace for France and especially Belgium, yet I am up in the air as to how far the UK actually goes.

The British have a better logistics position but I think they mucked up enough in Mesopotamia with Kut to argue not all is well for the UK. Indeed the Germans and British suspect the oil is a veritable lake, but carving this off at the cost of a prolonged war boiling down to just Germany/OE versus UK is not pretty. France can hope for nothing so it will bow it, Russia is folding up and how does the British voter feel about a war for oil? Add in a mediation from the USA here and anti-colonialism might warp the diplomacy across the board while putting the Armenians on the table. How about Standard Oil pressing for a British ouster hoping to be the developer?

Even if the UK holds Iraq, I see the OE getting really pro-Germany and anti-British sentiment growing in the Arab/Muslim community, add fuel with Palestine and Germany can ignite a nasty insurgency that spreads down the peninsula, across into Iran and further on into India's Muslim minority. Oil will still take decades to develop as Tommies face daily street battles and increasing get the jack-booted oppressor image. How ironic that Germany gets to be the champion of liberation? Without her colonies she climbs into the American bus as an "Open Door" anti-colonial trade barrier buster. It may not look like the future in 1917-1919 but we can use our hindsight to see this gain as a poison pill.

A cold war is better than the second world war in my estimation. And not provoking the American drive to kill British imperialism is even better. So how do we get the UK to put German colonies back into her hands and repair the OE such that Britain has its position to exploit her? I believe that is the long term play that helps the Empire.
 
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