The US does get involved but losses badly. I know a lot of people say that Germany would of never won with US involvement but its possible.
I think it is possible, but maybe not with a
US does get involved but losses badly
The German offensives in early 1918 lacked a strategic goal. Somehow you need better political leadership in Germany, and better planning from OHL.
Let us say Ludendorff somehow is replaced, and perhaps von Mackensen orPrince Rupprecht or ??? is made supreme commander.
Let us grace this new commander with a stronger vision then Ludendorff and the Spring Offensive succeeds in siezing the channel ports and isolating the BEF. And let's say after these gains in the Spring, the Germans are able to defeat the first American forces. (A crushing defeat against at that time a small and less experienced AEF....a division or two loss)
This is the hard part: a sensible German leadership now requests an armistice. (April-May 1918) Germany is in a stronger position then in October 1918 OTL, and the British blockade is lifted.
The peace restores the 'status quo ante bellum' in the West, the Balkans, Mesopotamia, and Africa. This is a "victory" for Germany, considering the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, and restores Germany's African empire. It is satisfactory to the French, as it results in the evacuation of German troops from France. No reparations on either side.
Impluasible, but not impossible.
So, US stays out of the war for 3 years, joins the war, suffers a minor (compared to the Associated powers) but significant defeat in the field. Political isolationism is a likely outcome of this (even in OTL, the USA rejected the League of Nations) but, renewed trade with Europe will occur. The economic consequences could be interesting as both Entente and Central Powers will be likely borrowing heavily from the USA to rebuild their respective societies. Does that lead to economic recovery, or collapse from the easy credit. Trade argues against isolationism, and as a maritime trading nation, and given the lessons learned from the British and German naval warfare from the War, there will be a strong push for a maintaining a strong Navy. This could also have interesting results, as the USA military planners may see England as much of a maritime threat.