Yes, I know that this scenario is done and talked about to death but I had intention to making a video about this topic for some time. I make alternate history videos on Youtube and have gone through the archives and read people's thoughts on this topic while creating the script and have done my own research.
If I could get some feedback on my actual script for things like correct numbers, if it flows decently (grammar I care much less about since it's going to voiced over instead of posted as text), and gives someone that may know nothing about the topic enough in-sight to understand what is being talked about etc. I would greatly appreciate it.
Things to note: This scenario has the Dutch join the CP at the start of WW1. I can input some reasoning behind it into the actual video if it would help. Just don't want to make it too long.
I would be having a second part to this video where I talk about the outcome/territorial changes. Plus any other loose ends that I may have.
My opening paragraph is not included to the script below.
Germany entered the war with a two-front war in mind called the schlieffen plan. The Schlieffen plan was created by Alfred Von Schlieffen as a thought experiment, a way to deal with Germany's neighbors. France to the west, and Russia to the east. Their would be no way that Germany could win a prolonged defensive war against France and Russia, so the plan was to quickly maneuver around the French defenses by invading Belgium, take Paris, make peace on the western front and send the troops to deal with Russia. During it's original construction. The Schlieffen plan also envisioned an invasion of southern Netherlands, allowing the armies to have more maneuvering room and additional railways as they advanced through Belgium and into northern France. This part of the plan was scraped however when Von Molke the younger took over from Schlieffen as Commander in Chief in 1906. The main reason for this was due to the modernization of the Dutch military. Among other things, he made the first and second armies, numbering some 600,000 men, advance along only a 12 mile gap through Belgium right towards the defensive positions of Liege. Meaning that quick capture of the intact Belgian railways was essential. As you can imagine, it didn't work out that well. The railways were destroyed, resistance was heavy, and delays were long. The Germans got stopped at the first battle of the Marne and the war on the western front turned into a slow, bloody grind. The problem was that during it's construction in 1905 the plan was out-dated, and by 1914 it was in-flexiable, un-realistic, and didn't take into account the advances of military technology and the change of national armies. The Russians that were first thought to take at least 6 weeks to mobilize, took 3, the Russian army had reformed, expanded, and modernized to some degree from it's 1905 counterpart.
So what could the Netherlands bring to the table? Well, the Dutch army in Europe consisted of 120 infantry battalions which numbered some 200,000 men, of which 90,000 had been part of the peace time army. This number could be increased to 450,000 and be ready to be put out onto the field in just a few days. This force was split into two field armies, and an additional 50,000 men of which most were reservists, were placed in major fortifications like the Waterlinie and the Defense line of Amsterdam. These fortifications had been in disrepair for some time and the advent of new heavy artillery had further rendered these defenses obsolete. The Dutch had around 60,000 men within its colonies, with the large majority of them being in the East Indies. The army of the East Indies consisted of around 30,000 regular troops and 25,000 native troops. These troops had seen recent combat against native kingdoms all through-out the early 1900’s and control over the more rural land was still very weak.
The European army had 2,000 artillery pieces of which 600 were rapid fire, 700 pieces were used in fortifications and 140 of these were rapid fire. The field armies lacked much in the way of heavy or modern artillery, and the sieges guns in the forts had long needed an upgrade. They had limited machine guns with only 700 being available, and only 32 of these could be classed as light machine guns. In the home waters, they could muster 6 heavy destroyers, a dozen cruisers, and a number of smaller craft. A large portion of their navy was in the East Indies at the time, numbering six submarines, 6 coast defense ships, 8 light destroyers, and 26 smaller craft. When concentrated the British Eastern Fleet was more of a match for a combined Dutch-German force, but at the start of the war the Eastern Fleet was scattered among the Australia, China, East Indies and New Zealand Stations. Therefore if the Central Powers force takes the initiative before the British can concentrate, there is the possibility that they can defeat a portion of it in detail like the OTL Battle of Coronel.
Without even taking into account the Dutch military strength in 1914, the simple land access for the German army to a much larger front would put them on track to take Paris. A good portion of the Belgian defenses could be outmaneuvered and dislodged including the positions at Liege, and many of the forts at Antwerp that held up large sections of the German 1st army. There's probably no race to the sea, as at least one German or Dutch army is just sauntering down the coast to start with, probably getting to Calais if the British decide to try and defend against the main German punch to Paris. If they do fight, it would develop somewhere between Antwerp and Calais without either side really getting the upper hand - but the German armies aiming for Paris will be able to move far more freely then in OTL. If the British still deploy as historical, they'll probably have to retreat south of the Seine river to restore their logistics after the initial fights - leaving this coastal army now free to continue far further south, or possibly even continue further along the coast. It is very likely that Paris would fall in the first push and France would seek peace terms by the end of the year.
Russia wouldn't last very long against the Central powers at that point. Their first offensive had been stopped in the disastrous battle of Tanninburg in September of that year. The Russians would be pushed back hundreds of kilometers in spots during the Gorlice-Tarnow Offensive that started in mid-May. They were pushed from Galicia which the Russians had occupied since late 1914, they would be removed from Poland, large parts of Lithuania, and swaths of Ukraine. If that offensive kicked off in this time-line then you would see double the number of German troops being allocated to it, the Russian lines would be pushed as far back as supplies allowed. Granted, it's doubtful that Tsar Nichalos would have waited so long before trying to sue for peace.