Central Powers Victory in 1916

Hnau

Banned
How would it be done, with the 'easiest' point of departure?

I have an idea: Nikolai Nikolaevich and STAVKA hesitated evacuating the First, Second, and Fourth Russian armies from Poland in early July during the Gorlice-Tarnow Offensive. It was absolutely necessary: the Twelfth German Army and Mackensen's troops were trying to encircle the Polish fortresses this Russian force held, almost in a blitzkrieg-like fashion. The First, Second, and Fourth would be absolutely destroyed if they did not evacuate.

Its likely the GT Offensive would last until October with the extra fighting, with likely the same line drawn from Riga to the Romanian border. The problem is that the Russian morale will be shattered, and STAVKA will be panicking that three armies had been captured. I don't think the food and fuel problems are enough to spark the revolution for the winter of 1915/16, but... its not going to take much for the Germans to punch through to the Baltics and the Ukraine without these three armies (essentially 765,000 men knocked out instead of OTL 240,000).

I think this is as good a POD as any, but I don't know how it would exactly play out... the Revolution was required before an armistice could be made. The Tsarist government was absolutely opposed to ending the war. I guess we need a different one. What do you guys think?
 

Sachyriel

Banned
Perhaps two (one, two and/or four) of these are captured, leading the third to rebel, and it starts a chain reaction, leading back into Russia?
 
Best case is Dvinsk, Riga and Minsk would all fall in Oct. H+L would probably fantasize about Smolensk and even Petrograd but Falkenhayn would rein them in (somewhat). Maybe they take Ostrov in Nov before weather and logistics call a halt. The Germans would conolidate their hold on the North South rail line.

The back breaker for the Russians is Romania which reluctantly joins the Central Powers around Christmas with a promise to get Bessarabia. The Romanian winter offensive misfires and they permit CP troops to help them.
This peruades Conrad to postpone Trentino.

Verdun proceeds as OTL until the end of March when Falkenhayn comes around to the idea of a Ukrainian offensive. Dynamic Duo launch a diversionary Baltic offensive in mid April and then a combined AustroGerman and some Romanians offensive starts May 1. It takes Odessa before the end of the month after that it proceeds towards Kiev.

The fertile soil of the Ukraine is Russia's most important asset. If they lose too much of it starvation becomes obvious. The voice of sanity at the court of the Tsar will come from the mouth of a madman.
 
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