Central Powers victorious! What happens to Bulgaria?

NoMommsen

Donor
There is a tendency to ooh and ah about Ottoman oil wealth in CP victory TL's but one should remember that oil was not discovered in Saudi Arabia until 1938 (and as I understand it the American drillers were on the verge of giving up but one individual made a plea for drilling just one more hole) In Kuwait the first well was late 1933. Bahrain was a little earlier in 1932.
Sure there is a lot of ooh and aah about oil for the ottomans :
In a CP victory they would control the largest then known, producing oil region of the world : Azerbaidjan, Baku.
With more than enough reserves to be produced until the Mosul region is developed.
Also there is the Schatt al-Arab, with its oil production at Abadan starting in 1909/1910.
 
Sure there is a lot of ooh and aah about oil for the ottomans :
In a CP victory they would control the largest then known, producing oil region of the world : Azerbaidjan, Baku.
With more than enough reserves to be produced until the Mosul region is developed.
Also there is the Schatt al-Arab, with its oil production at Abadan starting in 1909/1910.

The Turkish advance into the Caucasus isn`t a guaranteed thing. Depending on how the war ends with Russia, you might see only minimal expansion of the Ottoman empire into the Caucasus. Hell, IOTL the Ottomans only got Batum, Kars and Ardahan during Brest-Litovsk.
 
As for Abadan that's in Persia and it is not clear how that country ends up in CP victory TL. In large extent it will depend on how much leverage the CP have over the British at the negotiating table at the end. Yeah the Ottomans will have the Iraqi fields around Mosul producing in short order.
 
If the war is loser to OTL with a German led victory then I think this Bulgaria gets most of the territory desired and set forth by others, Bulgaria becomes a major power and lynch pin in the CP's alliance, dominating the Balkans and not just linking to the OE but in subtle ways counterbalancing it. Romania and Serbia both are under its heel in partnership with the Germans in Romania and A-H in Serbia. Bulgaria will hold Greece to a future of strict neutrality with decidedly pro-German leaning as desired. Bulgaria likely sees a boosted naval component to maintain CP authority in the Black Sea and Aegean, it becomes a cross roads to the OE. As one pairs back the CP "victory" towards a more modest stalemate and status quo end to the war Bulgaria may not get aggrandized as much but would remain an important piece of the CP puzzle. At minimum I think it folds in the German dominated customs union, this links the Balkans to the bigger continental economy, it should bring industry and growth to Bulgaria, a country that will become a serious lesser power in Europe, the near-East and Eastern Mediterranean.

As to OE oil, the Mesopotamian fields were suspected to be substantial, this will draw the Germans in to invest and develop, as I assume the British lose out and surrender their position in the OE. We might speculate that this oil gets online earlier than the late-1930s and by the 1940s is producing more like modern volumes as Germany needs a secure supply. Thus the impact is not immediate but substantial to a long term outlook for the CPs who will be exhausting Galicia in short order, draining Romania and otherwise beholden to buy American or Russian with only the Dutch being a relatively secure exporting source. Now after the 1960s is when the potential for Arabian oil and I think most importantly its gas becomes game changing. A surviving OE can pipe the Gulf gas to Europe, something that would greatly alter the economics of energy and transportation, alter environmental issues and otherwise impact Europe's energy infrastructure. Rather than diesel we see LNG, less or no nuclear, the phase down of coal and phase out of lignite, no Russian monopoly on gas or oil exports, and so on. The effect is more than money into the OE.
 
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