Central Powers Intervention in the Russian Civil War

I'm reading Adam Tooze's Deluge, which is a fascinating look at Europe in the interwar period, as well as the least years of WW1, and he has an interesting discussion of the Russian Civil War.

In a June memo prepared for Ludendorff's staff, "The Aims of German Policy," Ludendroff proposed intervening in the Russian Civil War to create a conservative Russian State who would "not only pose[] no danger to Germany's political future," but would be "politically, militarily, and economically dependent on Germany."

Despite the crisis facing Germany in the summer and fall of 1918, Ludendorff continued to fantasize about intervening in Russia. In August, the Russian government asked the Germans to intervene to stabilize the Murmansk front, where the British were creating an anti-Soviet base. Ludendorff leapt to intervene, but he proposed occupying Petrogad and Ronstadt, which would require a mere six divisions. This would form the basis for a new, revitalized conservative regime under German "supervision."

I think to get a Central Powers intervention, you need to drag the war out into 1919, or have the Allied Powers lose. But it's hard to see how this intervention would be any more successful than the Entente's...
 
If the intervention has the quality of an actual German total war against the Bolshevik regime it might be possible, but in the wake of WWI the sheer scale of that would likely be outside the realms of what they considered acceptable. Because it basically means not just siezing Petrograd, but likely siezing Moscow and occupying most major Russian industrial centers where the Bolsheviks drew much of their strength from. And also while doing that working against profane a in the rear from socialists and communists sympathetic to the Bolsheviks who have a powerful social base and who will be disrupting Germany as well. In the end it's likely an ill fated venture more based on Ludendorffs anti-communist fanaticism rather than good military and political thinking. Especially because the limited foreign involvement of otl was just not enough to really change things for the whites, but was enough to give the Bolsheviks a massive propaganda coup in the form of the whites being the agents of foreign governments rather than a really legitimate Russian movement.
 

raharris1973

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I agree that the Tooze book is fascinating, it's a quick, hard to put down, relatively easy read.

Interesting what if too.

Despite the crisis facing Germany in the summer and fall of 1918, Ludendorff continued to fantasize about intervening in Russia. In August, the Russian government asked the Germans to intervene to stabilize the Murmansk front, where the British were creating an anti-Soviet base. Ludendorff leapt to intervene, but he proposed occupying Petrogad and Ronstadt, which would require a mere six divisions. This would form the basis for a new, revitalized conservative regime under German "supervision."

I think to get a Central Powers intervention, you need to drag the war out into 1919, or have the Allied Powers lose. But it's hard to see how this intervention would be any more successful than the Entente's...


Well in principle I would agree, but I would expect the Germans to be operating at a great psychological advantage against the Bolesheviks, who after all, won their power by appealing to those who were so sick of the war with Germany that they preferred to fight other Russians instead. The Germans have a reputation as unstoppable. The initial prevailing reaction of Boleshevik forces to German offensives would be to retreat or melt among the populace rather than do stand-up fights. It will take awhile for Lenin to accept that the Germans have turned on him and cannot be talked out of it. Till then, he'll put limits on resistance.

Of course the whole German effort is on a flimsy base too - war weary German populace and army (although not as weary against enemies they can master and push around like the Russians as opposed to the WAllies who have more bite), a cruddy supply situation and lots internal problems.

I wonder how well the Germans would do in setting up a collaborationist conservative Russian regime. If you listen to John Reed, the potential for the Russian upper and middle classes to accept German overlordship was quite high. Of course, John Reed's sympathies when he was writing were clearly with socialism in general and the Bolesheviks in particular. I think the Germans would probably find at least some willing puppets, if not enthusiastic ones, if for no other reason than survival and a chance to get revenge on enemies, which can make a hypocrite of anyone, whether on the "right" or "left" of the political spectrum.
 
I think to get a Central Powers intervention, you need to drag the war out into 1919, or have the Allied Powers lose. But it's hard to see how this intervention would be any more successful than the Entente's...

Of course the whole German effort is on a flimsy base too - war weary German populace and army (although not as weary against enemies they can master and push around like the Russians as opposed to the WAllies who have more bite), a cruddy supply situation and lots internal problems.

I've always felt that the Russian Revolution was probably going to still go in the Bolsheviks favor in a CP victory, I've never really understood why Germany intervening would be more successful that Britain and France. They faced the same issues of the Whites lacking cohesion and leadership and a population at home who are probably largely interested in peace. A late CP victory Germany is still going to be in quite a state...
 
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There was intervention, but a rather weak one. Neither were they able to sufficiently prop up the Central Rada/later the Hetmanate in the Ukraine, nor could they effectively secure the Caucasus area or protect the Baltic Countries from Bolshevik incursion. The troops were generally overage (most men below 30 had been sent west) and poorly motivated.

In case of a CP victory, however, one could send all those diehards, who IOTL formed the Freikorps, east. These were serious fighters (a lot of former officers and NCOs) who might make a difference when joining the White effort, for example enabling Yudenich to take Kronstadt and Petrograd.

However, the Whites still would have nothing to offer to the Russian peasants, so the Bolsheviks could prevail in Central Russia, even if at the fringes the borders were drawn somewhat differently.
 
With or without German intervention there was more White support in the richer and outer regions including but not limited to the Ukraine, and more Bolshevik support in poor central Russia. How is Germany going to supply an army as far away as this region, how is bankrupt Germany going to afford it, and how are the exhausted German people going to allow it? One can imagine Germany, if it won the war, successfully stripping away the periphery, but the core of Russia is still going to go Red. I agree with the OP's conclusion that a German attempt to create a White Russia would be a failure.

Even if the Germans won the war, sending lots and lots of conservative anti-socialist Germans—including many of the military-trained, disciplined and experienced ones who are the main reason why a German communist revolution post-WW1 is deeply implausible in other circumstances—out of the country to suppress the "workers' state" in what will undoubtedly be a long, bloody campaign straight after an already-exhausting long, bloody war, simultaneously radicalising the regime's opponents and sending its defenders out of the country to fight and die, is practically the only way I can reasonably imagine a Red Germany straight after the war. The German leadership would be insane to attempt it.
 
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