Central Power Victory: Does Germany force the UK to let go of India?

The Russians were building 7 Dreadnoughts and 4 Battle Cruisers that were top notch and far better than most in the British fleet. They would make a fine addition to the German fleet by 1915. Then there are her destroyers and submarines which were also top notch. Just something to remember

Why would the Russians and French scuttle their fleets? To save Britain? Not when the Germans can march into Paris and Moscow.

Still waiting to see how the British are keeping the sea lanes open and how are they blockading the Franco-German border

Those Russian Ships were highly dependent on British equipment - if its 1915 then the Germans will have to finish them in which case they might as well not bother and make their own

And as for being better than the British ones.....ahh nope

The Ganguts are faster than most of the British battleships but in all other respects inferior to British Dreadnoughts - I do have a soft spot for this class.

The Imperatritsa Mariya-class - 2 might be finished in this TL but one Imperatritsa Ekaterina Velikaya was scuttled historically to prevent her being turned over to the Germans and the same fate might happen to the 1st unit but it was destroyed historically after a catasrophic magazine fire in 1916 - the 3rd unit was not finished until very late in the war due to the machinary not beign delivered from Britain so out of scope. These ships were similiar to the Ganguts.

The Borodino class ships - proved too much for the Russian industry to complete - the Germans would have to finish them off.

And anyway the OTL treaties did not force Russia to give up her navy and as far as I am aware only Imperatritsa Ekaterina Velikaya was slated to be handed over and she was scuttled!

As for the French - unlikely that all their fleet would be handed over as part of the terms and we cannot assume that any attempt to seize the fleet would not result in the same result as OTL when the Germans tried this in WW2
 
Under no circumstances can Germany gain India or force Britain to release India in World War I. They'd have enough trouble gaining any colonial conquests to begin with. Britain will need to be invaded and conquered to force an end to the British Raj. This would likely be in a WWII analogue. But the problem is on the diplomatic front. If a threat that serious to Britain like a victorious Imperial Germany arises, then Britain will eventually go along with the German system of things once it's obvious the Germans have triumphed and they can't bring back the European balance of power. A British government would have to be monumentally stupid to lead their nation into a war where Britain faces the serious threat of being invaded. Only an Anglo-American-Russian/Soviet alliance could hope to overturn the system, but even that I'm skeptical of. Anti-invasion preparations and the constant naval arms race would sap the British economy. On the German side, an invasion of Britain is basically like Operation Downfall on steroids. Germany needs perfect experience in conducting naval invasions and a huge navy and air force to ensure total control of the seas and skies. The cost to both sides, especially after the experience of the Great War, would mean such plans would likely permanently stay on the drawing board. I don't see the Germans asking for much more if they win the Great War, although that isn't to say a WWII would never happen.

Basically, this isn't going to happen unless Britain has monumentally stupid and irrationally violent post-war politicians who invite their own destruction with a Germany ruled by perhaps less stupid but still irrationally violent politicians eager to give the British what they're asking for (and throw away millions of lives in the process as well as leaving Germany and her allies economically ruined for many years).
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Think I read something about trying to settle Iraq with Indians. Not really related to this, I am just thinking of how if the British occupy much of the Arab portoins of he Ottoman Empire and the Germans offer to drop claims to India and other areas in exchange for the Turks getting their land back... well, it certainly couldn't hurt their relationships with their allies. Brits might try keeping a bit though, just so it is not all loss for them. Actually, the Turks didn't have any land on the Gulf outside of what Iraq currently has. Meaning that the British get most of the petroleum down there, probably after bribing the Saudis for their share.

How different is the need for an empire like the German one that would span a continent, versus the maritime one of the British? I imagine that Belgium will be Moreno important over the following decade as the coal would be great for trains and factories, while oil will take a while to make its way into its own. When it doesn't though, the Germans will have a field day making chemicals. Wasn't there a partially-Jewish man who made artificial petroleum from coal in WWI? I'm sure they will do even better things with the real thing.

In some scenarios, the Germans sphere of influence will have over 30% of world oil production and reserves. In others oil supplies will be an issue. The issues is butterflies, and levels of butterflies. By the time you to the end of the war, you are at least 5-7 layers in. And the world looks nothing like our world. So let me give you an example from mine. My ATL was about U-boats helping the Germans win. And I did my best to not to minimize butterflies. So in many ATL, the Ottomans still lose southern Iraq and Palestine. The Germans squeak out a win. Oil is an issue. Mine is the reverse.

  • Germans do much better with U-boats and this will help the win the war (POD).
  • Germans are threatening Calais in early 1915. Butterfly #1
  • British don't get around to doing Gallipoli because they keep trickling these units into Flanders (BF#2) This changed everything, but I did not realize it at the time.
  • Ottomans have a year plus to get their act together. (BF #3). Unlike OTL, Ottomans have more troops than needs. Ottomans also spend this time improving RR and Roads.
  • Ottomans keep the UK neatly bottle up near Basra. (BF #4A).
  • (BF #5) Don't remember if the Ottomans totally drive out the British from Iraq, but for reason you will see later, they can get them out at end of the war, and even have the UK largely acknowledge UK control over what is now the Ghawar oilfield.
  • Ottomans send a extra division or so the the Mecca area. Arab revolt does not even come close to happening. (BF #4B)
  • Ottomans eventually start building a RR across Sinai in an attempt to capture the Suez canal (BF#4C). They fail
  • Ottomans then build a military base in Duba, Arabia. With rail link (BF #5B). The deploy a hodge podge of rail transportable U-boats, torpedo craft, and airplanes. British respond by invading Jedda, leveling Mecca, and a siege of Medina. The lines stalemate. Red Sea is close to freighter traffic.
  • Lots of others stuff elsewhere, and the war ends.

Now there is nothing special or even likely about this ATL. The point I am trying to make is that any ATL with even vaguely realistic butterflies for an ATL WW1, will looking nothing like OTL. In this ATL, the UK actually worries more about the Ottoman Navy postwar than they would about the German Navy in a more typical ATL win. So in these types of threads where we just have 'Germans win', you can almost have any result happen. So outside of the broadest possible strokes, it is hard to say what will happen. Calbear widely like WW2 ATL is at most 1% likely for German wins scenarios. 99% of the time when the Germans win, something different happens.
 
How many times in the Revolutionary Wars and Napoleonic Wars did Britain stop fighting for a bit after her allies were defeated or bought off? They never accepted France as a hegemon though - just kept plugging away, putting coalition after coalition together until France was finally defeated. Seventh time's the charm!

That was the last great continental war in 1916. Britain will see this as another Napoleonic campaign. Make peace which safeguards the Empire, while trying to destabilise Germany around the edges, getting enough money and allies together for round two.

But who's available? Once Germany has beaten France and Russia, who can challenge the Germans on the continent

And what terms are the Germans giving the British?

What does Germany gain by a generous peace deal with Britain? A lifting of the blockade? That's lifted when the French and Russian borders are opened to trade again

Return of the colonies? What good is that? The colonies were worthless trophies. Now they can go for the juggler

Nigeria for Belgium and the Netherlenads? Not happening
 
But who's available? Once Germany has beaten France and Russia, who can challenge the Germans on the continent

And what terms are the Germans giving the British?

What does Germany gain by a generous peace deal with Britain? A lifting of the blockade? That's lifted when the French and Russian borders are opened to trade again

Return of the colonies? What good is that? The colonies were worthless trophies. Now they can go for the juggler

Nigeria for Belgium and the Netherlenads? Not happening
Plus the British could NOT return some of the colonies. South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand were already happily bundled up there. They would be rather resentful for any attempt to take them away. I think standard procedure in this sort of scenario is that Germany gets French and Belgian Congo, as well as Cameroon, but it has to leave Belgium and France. The Germans would need to hold out for quite some time for the British to give them hegemony over eastern, western, central, and southeastern Europe, as WELL as a chunk of Africa the size of the Ottoman Empire.
 
When one says "CP wins" I tend to think of a strategic stalemate, that for me is about the best that can occur unless somehow the opening move through Belgium and into France pays off wildly. When I look for a "worst" case for the British Empire the best paths have Germany stumble into avoiding the vaunted Schlieffen Plan for an East First strategy. This leaves the British in the war with not enough to do besides the blockade, as we know the British tend to go for "crazy" side bets when they are not busy enough so we get Gallipoli, maybe a big offensive push against the trench line, a naval battle for the Baltic, an invasion of the German coast, anything that simply wastes resources. Thus "worst" case.

All that is to say that I think you are discussing a two-part scenario. At best the CPs are not defeated and secure a stalemated front to the West occupying some portion of France, they "gain" a host of independent clients to the East in buffer with Russia and secure Russia's long-ish term exit from European affairs. I think you need that to line up another war between Germany and the British. The British hold to the blockade longer, it is not as effective, the Germans are more circumscribed in the U-boat campaign, the blockade alienates more of Europe and sets a wedge into European trade. My assumptions would be that there is no USA on the side of the Entente, in fact they have managed to alienate the USA and deepen the wedge by bringing Japan closer to their "alliance". My assumption is that the Ottomans and the British are now bitter enemies. The French remain hateful of the Germans. A-H does not collapse but is too shaken to be enough to tip the balance fully into German hands. Russia still goes revolutionary communism, defaults on all Imperial obligations and strikes its own course into the world. In all that I think you can sow seeds for another war and get India on the playing field.

Let us keep the Depression, maybe a Naval arms race instead of the Treaties, Britain secures Iraq and alienates the American oil barons who see the UK as a very dangerous hegemon. The USA exports oil to Germany and Britain to Japan. Keep shifting things to have the UK the "bad guy" as the world evolves new alignments.

Some broad stroked ideas would be to have Germany more successful in courting Indian separatists, have the Ottomans continue with Islamic themes and motivations that make them friends with Indian Muslims. Have France give up Togo and Kamerun with some other bits to secure French territory from German occupation. Give the British an appeaser Government that yields the other colonies back and offers up Portuguese holdings too, alienates Japan over China and Germany secures relations with China, builds relations with the USA as Japan gets aggressive. Have the war spark between Britain and Italy or Britain and the Ottomans over the Horn or Arabia or Mesopotamia. Have Germany go to bat for the Ottomans and we get a naval and air war between Germany and Britain. Germany saves Italy's bacon in the desert but here can bolster the Ottomans to take Egypt. The Ottomans take back Iraq. You have the USSR lurking in the background, invading Persia, threatening India, meddling in China, at war with Japan, who knows. The USA is tripping the British anywhere they can and giving Germany the props to change things. Things fall apart for the British where India jumps ship, the Empire implodes. I think you need to go down such a long path to get the ends. For the ATL world it was the World Wars that re-ordered Europe, began decolonialization, etc. All the same pent up problems vented just through different paths of resistance.
 
No chance does Britain give up any of the empire if Germany beats France/Russia or even both, much less the jewel that was India.

Not without some sort of ASB naval catastrophe and the Prussians goosestepping up the Mall. Otherwise you need Germany pretty much annexing half of the French and Russian empires - that would require quite a victory.

Even so, the British managed to keep the Russians away from India through the 19th century, why would they suddenly cave to a nation without land access or any chance of sea access to India?

I don't see either why it's taken as written that the French and Russians would simply hand over their fleets to the Germans? OTL history tells us that this is unlikely to happen - look at the Germans scuttling their fleet in Scapa Flow in 1919, or the British blowing the French fleet to bits at Mers el Kebir in 1940.
 
This seems like another one of those TL's where everything goes right for the Germans: they occupy France and Russia and the people in those countries seem fine with it, and the British don't smuggle in large quantities of arms and explosives to arm resistance groups, while the arrival of a few German guns in India causes the whole place to go up like a barrel of dynamite!
 
one thing to think about with these sorts of threads is how Britain would need to fight on against Germany who had defeated France and Russia. Germany would hold the French Channel coast and Kent itself would be subject to bombardment by Long Max guns and aircraft and her naval light forces and Uboats would be in Bolougne and Le Harve having outflanked the painstakingly built up Dover mine barrage.

Given the BEF would not be able to dislodge the Germans from the Channel ports Britain's choices are to keep fighting the naval war from a new position of weakness, or give Germany some colonies to go away.
 

Perkeo

Banned
It's not just ASB that the Germans can force anything about India but also that they even want to.
Not in their wildest dreams - and they did have some wild ones - it occurred to them.
 
It's not just ASB that the Germans can force anything about India but also that they even want to.
Not in their wildest dreams - and they did have some wild ones - it occurred to them.

Really? In his notes during the July Crisis the Kaiser wrote "If it is Germany's fate to bleed, my England at least lose India"

The ASB scenario is that Britain could seal itself off from the continent and rule a vast colonial Empire unmolested
 
The British Indian Army plus the Armies belonging to the Princely States is huge. Even if Germany rules Britain how do the Germans get an army to India and how does it take on an army more than 2 million strong with its own arsenals.
 
The British Indian Army plus the Armies belonging to the Princely States is huge. Even if Germany rules Britain how do the Germans get an army to India and how does it take on an army more than 2 million strong with its own arsenals.

By sea like the British did. If Germany gains control over the Oceans, then India will fall too her soon enough. Just like the British ruled with a small minimal force, the Germans will do the same- control the heavy weapons and you control the army
 
Those Russian Ships were highly dependent on British equipment - if its 1915 then the Germans will have to finish them in which case they might as well not bother and make their own

And as for being better than the British ones.....ahh nope

The Ganguts are faster than most of the British battleships but in all other respects inferior to British Dreadnoughts - I do have a soft spot for this class.

The Imperatritsa Mariya-class - 2 might be finished in this TL but one Imperatritsa Ekaterina Velikaya was scuttled historically to prevent her being turned over to the Germans and the same fate might happen to the 1st unit but it was destroyed historically after a catasrophic magazine fire in 1916 - the 3rd unit was not finished until very late in the war due to the machinary not beign delivered from Britain so out of scope. These ships were similiar to the Ganguts.

The Borodino class ships - proved too much for the Russian industry to complete - the Germans would have to finish them off.

And anyway the OTL treaties did not force Russia to give up her navy and as far as I am aware only Imperatritsa Ekaterina Velikaya was slated to be handed over and she was scuttled!

As for the French - unlikely that all their fleet would be handed over as part of the terms and we cannot assume that any attempt to seize the fleet would not result in the same result as OTL when the Germans tried this in WW2

The German fleet was turned over. Preventing its scuttling would have been child's play so the idea that the British might not be faced with a huge armada very soon is real. Even if many of the ships are lost, the shipyards remain. French, Russian and Italian yards could put out an awful lot of tonnage

In any event, the Germans gain access to French and Russian industry as well as French bases= bases which would make the commerce raiding many times more effective.

Britain fought WWI not for Belgium but for herself. She understood that a defeat of France and Russia would mean her turn was next
 
The German fleet was turned over. Preventing its scuttling would have been child's play so the idea that the British might not be faced with a huge armada very soon is real. Even if many of the ships are lost, the shipyards remain. French, Russian and Italian yards could put out an awful lot of tonnage

In any event, the Germans gain access to French and Russian industry as well as French bases= bases which would make the commerce raiding many times more effective.

Britain fought WWI not for Belgium but for herself. She understood that a defeat of France and Russia would mean her turn was next

Isn't that ultimately why the USA got involved on both occasions?
 
Isn't that ultimately why the USA got involved on both occasions?

In the first war, America got involved for rather bizarre reasons, the Japanese attacked in WWII But the idea that Britain can survive behind her fleet after a German victory on the continent is wrong The British leadership understood this and that's why only a fringe group tried to make it about Belgium

IF the Germans take the Continent, India and the British Isles themselves are likely to fall. The Anglo-German naval rivalry is proof enough that the Kaiser is going on a shipbuilding frenzy and he will be able to out build the British with ease
 
In the first war, America got involved for rather bizarre reasons, the Japanese attacked in WWII But the idea that Britain can survive behind her fleet after a German victory on the continent is wrong The British leadership understood this and that's why only a fringe group tried to make it about Belgium

IF the Germans take the Continent, India and the British Isles themselves are likely to fall. The Anglo-German naval rivalry is proof enough that the Kaiser is going on a shipbuilding frenzy and he will be able to out build the British with ease

Its been proven time after time that Britain can hide behind its navy - well for long enough anyway for its principal enemy to do something really really really fucking stupid - like Invading Russia or pissing off the USA or Invading Russia and then declaring war on the USA for......why did Hitler declare war on the USA again (probably off his head on drugs)?

And all of this is not happening in a vacuum - other nations (if it's 1915 or something - then thats USA and Japan) are going to look at this arms race and think - 'After the UK we are next' - so do you think they are going to wait for their most powerful potential ally to fall?

So suddenly the kaiser's new shiny navy is now being opposed by not one but 3 of the world most powerful Naval powers.

Out build that.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
  • A-H does not attack Italy in 1916.
  • Execute Verdun according to the plan Falkenhayn claims he order.
  • Later USA entry in war from things like deny the Zimmerman telegram as a British forgery.

Would be interested in seeing how A-H not attacking Italy sketches out to an ultimate CP victory.

Also, would be interested in seeing what a "verdun according to plan" ultimately leads to.

And how many weeks of American non participation could be gained by casting doubt on the ZT, even while USW is the proclaimed German policy. Is there anything in particular about several weeks delay in US entry making a CP victory really likely?

The British leadership understood this and that's why only a fringe group tried to make it about Belgium

It is not clear here exactly what the fringe group is willing to settle for at the end of the war and how this makes it different from the "core group" of British politicians. Please explain what you were trying to say.
 
It is not clear here exactly what the fringe group is willing to settle for at the end of the war and how this makes it different from the "core group" of British politicians. Please explain what you were trying to say.


Just like it says: the vast majority of Parliament was ready to vote for war long before Belgium. Only the extreme pacifist wing of the Liberal party held out until their resistance crumbled with the Belgium invasion.

The British fought for their own interests and preserving their Empire was on the top of the list. If Germany wins, then the British Empire was doomed. The cabinet clearly saw it as did Parliament.
 
Its been proven time after time that Britain can hide behind its navy - well for long enough anyway for its principal enemy to do something really really really fucking stupid - like Invading Russia or pissing off the USA or Invading Russia and then declaring war on the USA for......why did Hitler declare war on the USA again (probably off his head on drugs)?

And all of this is not happening in a vacuum - other nations (if it's 1915 or something - then thats USA and Japan) are going to look at this arms race and think - 'After the UK we are next' - so do you think they are going to wait for their most powerful potential ally to fall?

So suddenly the kaiser's new shiny navy is now being opposed by not one but 3 of the world most powerful Naval powers.

Out build that.

Where to begin? that the only thing that saves Britain is that somehow the Americans save them. Not much of an Empire

The thread assumes a CP victory Since the only CP victory scenarios are short war ones- its really hard to have the Germans win after 1916. The situation on the continent would be:

The Germans had managed to encircle and destroy a chunk of the French army bringing the war to a close in the West. The armistice terms would be like the ones t he Germans got: hand over the weapons and disband. France is no longer a great power. The September Programme called for France to pay an indemnity of 31,000,000.000 marks. That will finance any navy the Germans want

the Americans and the Japanese are going to get scared of the Germans but not the British?
 
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