Central Power Victory: Does Germany force the UK to let go of India?

CaliGuy

Banned
Ottomans have no navy. Even in an ATL like my first one where the Ottomans get a big wank. And the routes overland are quite a travel on the roads of the day. It is not that the Ottomans could not sneak a regiment or two into India. It is just that the UK can easily counter these troops in the high passes of the Afghan lands. Now German and/or the Ottomans might well try to smuggle arms to these guys. Maybe send a little silver or gold. Or maybe allow some leaders to stay in Ottoman lands. But these actions are really just symbolic.
So, you don't think that some arms and gold are going to help the Muslim League that much?

Also, wouldn't the infrastructure in this region improve over time and thus facilitate easier travel between the Ottoman Empire and India?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
So, you don't think that some arms and gold are going to help the Muslim League that much?

Also, wouldn't the infrastructure in this region improve over time and thus facilitate easier travel between the Ottoman Empire and India?

Not really. I think that in most German wins, the threat of the German empire will help tie the white Dominions to the UK. And the UK will see keeping India as key to its success. So I just don't see extra gold and small arms as being much more than an irritant to the UK.

If you decide to travel from Mosul to the Kyber pass today by land, how easy would it be? How long would it take?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Not really. I think that in most German wins, the threat of the German empire will help tie the white Dominions to the UK. And the UK will see keeping India as key to its success. So I just don't see extra gold and small arms as being much more than an irritant to the UK.

OK.

If you decide to travel from Mosul to the Kyber pass today by land, how easy would it be? How long would it take?

It would be easier to travel from Mosul through Persia and Balochistan to British India, though.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
The UK has three choice if France and Russia fall

  • Continue the war alone.
  • Accept the status quo at the end of the war.
  • Negotiate a settlement. If you go through the possible terms that the Germans might want, what do you have the UK offering.

There are lots of German Victory scenarios after July 1, 1916.


  • Don't resume USW.
  • A-H does not attack Italy in 1916.
  • Execute Verdun according to the plan Falkenhayn claims he order.
  • Later USA entry in war from things like deny the Zimmerman telegram as a British forgery.
  • Russia accept earlier, softer peace terms.

As to why Germany is focused on the near abroad.

  • A-H may have collapse into civil war. Or maybe it is only holding on because of German support.
  • The new clients states in the east are a mess when one gets into the details.
  • Russia can easily be in civil war in many win scenarios.
  • There are food shortages.
  • We could be dealing with Austria versus Hungary split issues.
  • Ottomans need help.

Sometimes one lives with things one does not like. The UK may have to accept German domination of mainland Europe. Also, if Imperial Germany can use French ports like in WW2, the game becomes very difficult for the UK. Imperial Germany had a good size navy, well designed ships, and competent officers.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
OK.

It would be easier to travel from Mosul through Persia and Balochistan to British India, though.

That could be true, but when I looked at the Ottoman activity in WW1, they all went through Afghanistan. I assume there was a valid reason why.
 
The British would agree to abjectly humiliating concessions to hold onto India. It was literally the backbone of their whole empire.
 
If Britain could truly live with a continental hegemon, than her foreign policy would make no sense going back centuries. In an era where rail had replaced the sea, she can afford it even less

How many times in the Revolutionary Wars and Napoleonic Wars did Britain stop fighting for a bit after her allies were defeated or bought off? They never accepted France as a hegemon though - just kept plugging away, putting coalition after coalition together until France was finally defeated. Seventh time's the charm!

That was the last great continental war in 1916. Britain will see this as another Napoleonic campaign. Make peace which safeguards the Empire, while trying to destabilise Germany around the edges, getting enough money and allies together for round two.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
How many times in the Revolutionary Wars and Napoleonic Wars did Britain stop fighting for a bit after her allies were defeated or bought off? They never accepted France as a hegemon though - just kept plugging away, putting coalition after coalition together until France was finally defeated. Seventh time's the charm!

That was the last great continental war in 1916. Britain will see this as another Napoleonic campaign. Make peace which safeguards the Empire, while trying to destabilise Germany around the edges, getting enough money and allies together for round two.
Well, if Britain could swallow a fact that it would have to work with the Commies.

Another requirement is France must somehow keep Longwy-Brien. Then, its population must rise at least as fast as during the OTL post-ww2 era for the next two decades so that its population reaches at least over 50 million by 1939.

German economy stops growing like during 1870-1913 (very hard).
 
Perhaps after a long war but German chances shrink dramatically as the war drags on and Britain and France are supplied from the Americas. In a short war, the Germans aren't going to be very tired at all. By short I mean no longer than January 1, 1916. There are few German victory scenarios after that

And why would Britain offer such terms? She would know that the Germans are about to get extremely powerful from whatever indemnity she's collecting

Who on the continent is going to resist a Germany that has just beaten France and Russia and driven the British back to their Isles?


If Britain could truly live with a continental hegemon, than her foreign policy would make no sense going back centuries. In an era where rail had replaced the sea, she can afford it even less

The bigger question is why does Germany want to dismantle the British Empire? I think they will definitely demand Irish independence, especially if there has been significant Irish resistance as in OTL, and possibly parts of British East Africa and a few strategic bases but why remove India or other large colonies from the British orbit? Just annexing the Belgian Congo and a few of the best French colonies (such as Madagascar, Indochina, and the Ivory Coast) will be a pretty big effort, so direct rule is not on the cards. And establishing independent colonies is out of the question for obvious reasons.

This doesn't mean Britain is going to be reconciled to a continental hegemon but with France presumably a German satellite and therefore German ships based on the French Atlantic coast, as well as the lack of a plausible continental ally, Britain's options for reversing the losses of a lost First World War are going to be limited.

teg
 
No. Germany couldn't enforce this nor would it want to. It achieved all it wanted. Dismantling the British wasn't on the agenda. What you would see is the British making concessions in Africa.

Anything else is pretty much ASB without a drastically different WW1.
 
Unless you have the Grand Fleet at the bottom of the North Sea and Germans goosestepping on Trafalgar Square, I see zero possibility of this happening, I'm sorry.

The only option I see is the British Empire slowly falling apart after a British defeat in the war, but it being forced in a peace treaty by Germany is just silly.
 
Force no. But a CP victory in WW1 might very well result in Indian independence even without Germany explicitly demanding it.
Consider how exhausted the UK was in OTL after WW1. A determined revolt in India probably could have expelled them then, it just didn't happen. Obvious why: Having just won the biggest war in human memory they looked a lot stronger than they were.
Now consider a Britain as exhausted as in OTL, with everyone in India knowing Britain just lost a big war, the Ottoman Empire looking far stronger than they really are, with no reparations to pay for Britians war debts, perhaps US banks already seizing collateral, etc. Now have some Indian Veterans getting screwed over by what might even be just be bad paperwork rather than outright malice. Riots, mutinies, things escalate...... You do the math.
 
The Germans would get India in this or just see it independent? I can see issues when the US makes public the Hindu-German conspiracy that took many American lives. I don't see the Germans asking for the land, independent or otherwise. The Kaiser wasn't in charge and the business and military elites would see Eastern Europe, the Balkans, the Ottoman Empire, Central Africa, and China as better areas to focus. And the Low Countries, of course. Hegemony over most of mainland Europe outside of France, Italy, and Iberia would be just fine for them. Always depends on how close they come to defeat though, since their planners seemed to up the ante of how much land they wanted the more they won. That was in private, though.
 
Unless you have the Grand Fleet at the bottom of the North Sea and Germans goosestepping on Trafalgar Square, I see zero possibility of this happening, I'm sorry.

The only option I see is the British Empire slowly falling apart after a British defeat in the war, but it being forced in a peace treaty by Germany is just silly.
I would say getting Ethiopia, Iran, Egypt, and some other areas into their orbit would give the Germans a perfectly fine sphere of influence to go along with the Berlin to Baghdad railroad and their friendliness with the Ottomans. Maybe getting the British to drop protectionist measures in the colonial market against Germans would do it. Could be in lieu of reperations for damage against German shipping and seized property or whatever. All oiled basically just be haggling though so everyone can say they only gave half of what the other wanted.
 
I would say getting Ethiopia, Iran, Egypt, and some other areas into their orbit would give the Germans a perfectly fine sphere of influence to go along with the Berlin to Baghdad railroad and their friendliness with the Ottomans. Maybe getting the British to drop protectionist measures in the colonial market against Germans would do it. Could be in lieu of reperations for damage against German shipping and seized property or whatever. All oiled basically just be haggling though so everyone can say they only gave half of what the other wanted.
Wonder how this pans out once the oil deposits are discovered in the area. Especially if there's no WW2 (which is plausible if CPs win).
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Wonder how this pans out once the oil deposits are discovered in the area. Especially if there's no WW2 (which is plausible if CPs win).

The Germans have plenty of oil. They have about 20% of world supply with the Lemberg fields and the Romania fields. The fields around Mosul probably get them to around 30%. Eventually the Saudi fields will be discovered in an area that is probably technically in the Ottoman empire.
 
Wonder how this pans out once the oil deposits are discovered in the area. Especially if there's no WW2 (which is plausible if CPs win).
I suppose there still would be issues as the British might be keeping all their Gulf possessions and they, the Americans, and the Dominoins all have one or more oil companies searching the areas that might might be able to offer the Arabs, Turks, and Iranians more than the Germans.

The Germans have plenty of oil. They have about 20% of world supply with the Lemberg fields and the Romania fields. The fields around Mosul probably get them to around 30%. Eventually the Saudi fields will be discovered in an area that is probably technically in the Ottoman empire.
Think I read something about trying to settle Iraq with Indians. Not really related to this, I am just thinking of how if the British occupy much of the Arab portoins of he Ottoman Empire and the Germans offer to drop claims to India and other areas in exchange for the Turks getting their land back... well, it certainly couldn't hurt their relationships with their allies. Brits might try keeping a bit though, just so it is not all loss for them. Actually, the Turks didn't have any land on the Gulf outside of what Iraq currently has. Meaning that the British get most of the petroleum down there, probably after bribing the Saudis for their share.

How different is the need for an empire like the German one that would span a continent, versus the maritime one of the British? I imagine that Belgium will be Moreno important over the following decade as the coal would be great for trains and factories, while oil will take a while to make its way into its own. When it doesn't though, the Germans will have a field day making chemicals. Wasn't there a partially-Jewish man who made artificial petroleum from coal in WWI? I'm sure they will do even better things with the real thing.
 
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