Of course, supposing something like this arises, these... Neutral States of America... would pose a significant problem for the Union.
Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, Kentucky, Missouri, Arkansas and Tennessee (and possibly North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Ohio) are right in between the USA and the CSA. So to get to the CSA, the USA would have to march right through the neutral states. Which would most likely drive them into the arms of the CSA. Meaning a more divided, but much bigger bloc of states opposed to the Federal government... a bloc of states that is also not, ITTL, seen to be fighting purely for slavery. (Or rather: the smaller CSA will consist on the hardcore slaver states, but the Neutral states will actively be defending themselves against unprovoked federal invasion. Their struggle, by and large, will be about state sovereignty.)
All this is to say: might the USA be perceived as the clear aggressor in this conflict, and might foreign nations be persuaded to mediate?
The CSA will be just fine with being left alone. They won't be starting an invasion of the north. (Hell, many radicals in the OTL South were uncertain if "border states" outside the Deep South should even be allowed to join them!) So the north either has to march through neutral states that have done the north no real wrong... or they have to wait, negotiate, postpone war... which all gives the CSA, unburdened by war, time to establish itself as a credible (if morally repugnant) nation. Meaning that if and when the USA later invades anyway, they will certainly be viewed as the agressor.
Either way, I foresee a much stronger (and arguably much more justified) 'lost cause' mythology popping up. Especially if the USA marches right through the neutral states, they'll come off like bullying, despotic agressors.
Or there's the third option: the USA ultimately comes to an accord with the neutral states (expect stronger legal protection for states' rights in TTL's USA), and simply allows the rump-CSA to just go its own way. Good riddance to bad rubbish. No Civil War. Rump-CSA becomes a third world hellhole ruled by the likes of Robert Barnwell Rhett. As slavery begins to fade out in the north (which includes OTL Confederate States Virginia, Arkansas and Tennessee, and possibly North Carolina), slaveholders migrate to the Rump-CSA. This only expedites the process of ending slavery in the USA... while it only becomes more entrenched in the CSA.
So many interesting directions to take this whole idea! Seriously, I think we need to come up with a good POD for this. I'd rather like to see a TL coming out of this.
Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, Kentucky, Missouri, Arkansas and Tennessee (and possibly North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Ohio) are right in between the USA and the CSA. So to get to the CSA, the USA would have to march right through the neutral states. Which would most likely drive them into the arms of the CSA. Meaning a more divided, but much bigger bloc of states opposed to the Federal government... a bloc of states that is also not, ITTL, seen to be fighting purely for slavery. (Or rather: the smaller CSA will consist on the hardcore slaver states, but the Neutral states will actively be defending themselves against unprovoked federal invasion. Their struggle, by and large, will be about state sovereignty.)
All this is to say: might the USA be perceived as the clear aggressor in this conflict, and might foreign nations be persuaded to mediate?
The CSA will be just fine with being left alone. They won't be starting an invasion of the north. (Hell, many radicals in the OTL South were uncertain if "border states" outside the Deep South should even be allowed to join them!) So the north either has to march through neutral states that have done the north no real wrong... or they have to wait, negotiate, postpone war... which all gives the CSA, unburdened by war, time to establish itself as a credible (if morally repugnant) nation. Meaning that if and when the USA later invades anyway, they will certainly be viewed as the agressor.
Either way, I foresee a much stronger (and arguably much more justified) 'lost cause' mythology popping up. Especially if the USA marches right through the neutral states, they'll come off like bullying, despotic agressors.
Or there's the third option: the USA ultimately comes to an accord with the neutral states (expect stronger legal protection for states' rights in TTL's USA), and simply allows the rump-CSA to just go its own way. Good riddance to bad rubbish. No Civil War. Rump-CSA becomes a third world hellhole ruled by the likes of Robert Barnwell Rhett. As slavery begins to fade out in the north (which includes OTL Confederate States Virginia, Arkansas and Tennessee, and possibly North Carolina), slaveholders migrate to the Rump-CSA. This only expedites the process of ending slavery in the USA... while it only becomes more entrenched in the CSA.
So many interesting directions to take this whole idea! Seriously, I think we need to come up with a good POD for this. I'd rather like to see a TL coming out of this.
