CCW WI: Mao died in 1926

Apparently, Mao only managed to escape Shanghai by the skin of his teeth in 1926 when the KMT began to crack down on the Communists.

What if he had died then?

How would that affect the CCP?

How would it affect the Civil War?

Would the Japanese still invade if China is more unified?
 
This hurts the CCP. Mao was the one who thought of using the rural poor as a political base. Japan still invades. China is still weak.
 
At that point in time Chen Duxiu was in control of the Chinese Communist Party. He was a cofounder and its first chairman.

Moa was the leader of the Chinese Soviet Republic. This was the most powerful communist territory but theoretically under the overall command of Chen Duxiu.

Moa rise to power mostly came in the wake of Chen's blunderings. Chen pissed off the Soviet Union. He supported Trotsky and openly disagreed with the policies of the Comintern. This isn't a smart move when you need their support to survive attacks from the Chinese Nationalists.

The fate of the CCP lies with who takes over from him. Qu Qiubai took over in 1927. His legacy was the Guangzhou Uprising. It failed but inspired others to join the Communist cause. His rise to power was supported by Moa however. If he died, Qu may have been unable to become chairman.

In 1928 the CCP was at a crossroads. Were they their own organization or part of the Comintern or a compromise between the two? The early leaders were against the Comintern while rising starts like Zhu De and Wang Ming had close ties to the Soviet Union. If either of those two took power expect a more pro- Soviet Union CCP.
 
When was this incident regarding Mao precisely. I thought that the KMT crackdown on Communists in Shanghai came in 1927, not 1926.
 
At that point in time Chen Duxiu was in control of the Chinese Communist Party. He was a cofounder and its first chairman.

Moa was the leader of the Chinese Soviet Republic. This was the most powerful communist territory but theoretically under the overall command of Chen Duxiu.

Moa rise to power mostly came in the wake of Chen's blunderings. Chen pissed off the Soviet Union. He supported Trotsky and openly disagreed with the policies of the Comintern. This isn't a smart move when you need their support to survive attacks from the Chinese Nationalists.

The fate of the CCP lies with who takes over from him. Qu Qiubai took over in 1927. His legacy was the Guangzhou Uprising. It failed but inspired others to join the Communist cause. His rise to power was supported by Moa however. If he died, Qu may have been unable to become chairman.

In 1928 the CCP was at a crossroads. Were they their own organization or part of the Comintern or a compromise between the two? The early leaders were against the Comintern while rising starts like Zhu De and Wang Ming had close ties to the Soviet Union. If either of those two took power expect a more pro- Soviet Union CCP.

Mao was a guerrilla genius though, I have a hard time seeing anyone replicating his success. Oh, they still might take over the country, but I think the struggle would be longer and harder.
 
Without Mao, the situation could turn like the Spanish Civil War, where the Soviets turn their back on the differently aligned communists. If the Chinese Communists don't align with the Soviets, it hurts their chances of support when the Soviets finally shake off the Nationalists. If the Communists are in open defiance of Moscow because of the lack of Stalinist Mao, then the Nationalists keep the support of the Soviet Union.

Ultimately, it might turn out better for the Soviets in the end. I don't think it really affects the Japanese invasion. The Chinese can still shake them off, but how strong the Communists are after it will be important. If they become a force on par with the Nationalists, then I could see the Soviets mediating a peace between the groups. A fractured China, Manchuria staying under the Soviet fold, with the addition of Xinjiang. A bigger headache for the US, as it will complicate Asia more so for them. The Soviet Union won't have to worry about a Chinese threat since an independent Chinese Communist state would occupy the area south of Mongolia and largely rural. Basically, the majority of whatever Chinese states result from this are going to need Soviet backing, or are going to seek it.

Damn, that was a lot of Communists, Soviets, and Chinese.
 
Mao was a guerrilla genius though, I have a hard time seeing anyone replicating his success. Oh, they still might take over the country, but I think the struggle would be longer and harder.

In my opinion Mao's military victories could have been duplicated. His political skills were what set him apart. He had the support of both the Soviets and the Chinese Communists. He was also a good judge of character; he took Zhu De in when no one else would.

Without Mao I don't believe that China would become communist. His death would leave the Communist Chinese fractured at best. After the war with Japan they may find themselves quickly defeated by the Nationalists.
 
In my opinion Mao's military victories could have been duplicated. His political skills were what set him apart. He had the support of both the Soviets and the Chinese Communists. He was also a good judge of character; he took Zhu De in when no one else would.
Mao also was one of the first to openly reject Otto Braun's military leadership, was he not? Remove Mao in '26 or '27, and Braun becomes that much more influential and that much more disastrous for the CCP in 1934/5.
 
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