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The genocide of the Circassians and other Muslim peoples of Caucasus by the Russian Empire ranks as one of the most effective ethnic cleansings in history, with entire groups of people like the Ubykh decimated. The survivors were forced into the Ottoman Empire and beyond.

But let's say the Russians don't go for such an extreme policy. Let's say they encourage and give some "forceful nudging" to have Muslims move to the Ottoman Empire or otherwise leave, but the numbers which leave or are killed are a fraction of what they are OTL. The local Circassians and others are still second-class citizens. There's some localised incidents of violence periodically as well. Russians and others (Ukrainians, Germans, etc.) still move in to settle the area.

So what would the demographics of the area look like in this case? How many millions of Circassians (and other peoples which suffered from the Russians, like the Abkhaz) would live there? What would the ratio of Russians to Circassians, etc. be?

And for historical effects, how does not having hundreds of thousands of Circassians and others affect the Ottoman Empire? Does Circassia reassert independence if the Russian Empire still falls? If the Soviet Union still replaces it, does it get its own SSR and thus is equivalent to Georgia and such?
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