Caucasus with less genocide and ethnic cleansing

The genocide of the Circassians and other Muslim peoples of Caucasus by the Russian Empire ranks as one of the most effective ethnic cleansings in history, with entire groups of people like the Ubykh decimated. The survivors were forced into the Ottoman Empire and beyond.

But let's say the Russians don't go for such an extreme policy. Let's say they encourage and give some "forceful nudging" to have Muslims move to the Ottoman Empire or otherwise leave, but the numbers which leave or are killed are a fraction of what they are OTL. The local Circassians and others are still second-class citizens. There's some localised incidents of violence periodically as well. Russians and others (Ukrainians, Germans, etc.) still move in to settle the area.

So what would the demographics of the area look like in this case? How many millions of Circassians (and other peoples which suffered from the Russians, like the Abkhaz) would live there? What would the ratio of Russians to Circassians, etc. be?

And for historical effects, how does not having hundreds of thousands of Circassians and others affect the Ottoman Empire? Does Circassia reassert independence if the Russian Empire still falls? If the Soviet Union still replaces it, does it get its own SSR and thus is equivalent to Georgia and such?
 
I mean how many Circassian are actually going to remain in the region after 50 years of warfare against the Russian? I´m quite sure a large % of the population is going to emigrate even if the Russian don´t force them to.

I think the Russian population would still be majority in the area north of the Kuban(by Russian I mean East Slavic there), the Circassian population would be around 1.2-1.5 million if the population growth is the same as the geneal Russian one and if no people were expelled or emigrated, so I´d say around 1 million would be more correct. But it would really depend on how many Circassian+related groups there were before then, it seems like it ranges between 800k to 1.5 million, so I guess the population of Circassian + bros around 1900 would be between 1 million and 2 millions.

That though would still make them a minority Oblast, but the Oblast contains a lot of area north of the river, so I guess the Circassian population would be at least slight-to-strong majority or plurality there.

Abkhazia is harder to know, the area seemed to be almost unsettled during the time after the cleansing so given also 1 of the 2 governates in the area was majority Abkhaz in 1897(the one where they were majority effectively being modern Abkhazia, the separatist state).

In the other, today Russian, Black sea governate the population would probably be still lightly populated but plurality Abkhaz.

And for historical effects, how does not having hundreds of thousands of Circassians and others affect the Ottoman Empire? Does Circassia reassert independence if the Russian Empire still falls? If the Soviet Union still replaces it, does it get its own SSR and thus is equivalent to Georgia and such?
I´m not so sure how removing a million people from the Ottoman empire might affect things, that I can´t tell. Probably there will be less escalation of violence from the Turkish side, no idea.

I doubt Circassia can really assert its independence if the Bolsheviks rise in a similar fashion, I mean the Southern Cacuasus didn´t manage, the Circassian will be less able than them.

They can potential get an SSR, but if you think about it, the Dagestani or other north Caucasian people didn´t get them even with their local majority, I think at best they will get a southern Kuban governate under the Russian SSR instead of the enclaved majority Russian area.

You can potentially get the Circassian to try for independence but really, if you just look East you will see that you merely moved them into the position of the Chechens and Dagestani, and those are even more isolated geographically than the Circassian would be, making the Circassian in worse position, at least for those that favor independence.

For the Abkhazian the situation is even harder, even with them having like around 300k people, the Georgians and the Russian minorities is only bound to increase and those 2 neighbouring states already have bigger population by themselves.
 
What POD are you looking for? I was considering pitching the idea that Ivan's Kardbardian wife Maria Temryukovna lives, and her son with Ivan, Vasily lives as well in the make Circassia Great Again thread. Ivan previously had an alliance with them and did like Maria's brother Mikhail Cherkassky. If Vasily lives instead of dying early, I'm willing to take a guess she won't be assassinated, nor would Mikhail be killed in the Oprichnina purges.
 
Come to think of this, a lighter Tsarist oppression on the Caucasus would also be good for the Chechens and Ingush and Dagestani peoples, who also suffered large losses. Would be interesting there too, although IMO the Circassians are the most interesting to focus on.

I mean how many Circassian are actually going to remain in the region after 50 years of warfare against the Russian? I´m quite sure a large % of the population is going to emigrate even if the Russian don´t force them to.

I think the Russian population would still be majority in the area north of the Kuban(by Russian I mean East Slavic there), the Circassian population would be around 1.2-1.5 million if the population growth is the same as the geneal Russian one and if no people were expelled or emigrated, so I´d say around 1 million would be more correct. But it would really depend on how many Circassian+related groups there were before then, it seems like it ranges between 800k to 1.5 million, so I guess the population of Circassian + bros around 1900 would be between 1 million and 2 millions.

That though would still make them a minority Oblast, but the Oblast contains a lot of area north of the river, so I guess the Circassian population would be at least slight-to-strong majority or plurality there.

I'd assume enough people would remain in the area, even if warfare and violence and the general dislike from the government being a good incentive to leave without people forcibly expelling you.

How many Circassians (I should note I'm including Kabardians, etc. in my use of the word "Circassian") even lived north of the Kuban? The 1897 census shows them having been thoroughly removed from that area. So I definitely think they'd be a small minority there. There's also the potential in the Soviet era (or a more enlightened Tsarist era/Russian Republic) that if they get an autonomous or otherwise "national homeland" within Russia south of the Kuban that the ones north would be more likely to move there.

Abkhazia is harder to know, the area seemed to be almost unsettled during the time after the cleansing so given also 1 of the 2 governates in the area was majority Abkhaz in 1897(the one where they were majority effectively being modern Abkhazia, the separatist state).

In the other, today Russian, Black sea governate the population would probably be still lightly populated but plurality Abkhaz.

They never lived much further northwest than Sochi, and the area was mixed between them and Circassians, wasn't it? And a hell of a lot of Abkhaz left too, so you could probably double modern Abkhazia's population and still have a few hundred thousand people of Abkhaz descent living outside of the area.

I´m not so sure how removing a million people from the Ottoman empire might affect things, that I can´t tell. Probably there will be less escalation of violence from the Turkish side, no idea.

True, IIRC there's a quote about all the "starving, mean peasants" from the Caucasus living in the Ottoman Empire always being ready to fight the people who sent them there.

I doubt Circassia can really assert its independence if the Bolsheviks rise in a similar fashion, I mean the Southern Cacuasus didn´t manage, the Circassian will be less able than them.

They can potential get an SSR, but if you think about it, the Dagestani or other north Caucasian people didn´t get them even with their local majority, I think at best they will get a southern Kuban governate under the Russian SSR instead of the enclaved majority Russian area.

You can potentially get the Circassian to try for independence but really, if you just look East you will see that you merely moved them into the position of the Chechens and Dagestani, and those are even more isolated geographically than the Circassian would be, making the Circassian in worse position, at least for those that favor independence.

For the Abkhazian the situation is even harder, even with them having like around 300k people, the Georgians and the Russian minorities is only bound to increase and those 2 neighbouring states already have bigger population by themselves.

The Bolshevik/Russian Civil War situation is definitely dependent on a lot of things. But ultimately a less successful Bolsheviks, pressed by the remaining White Russians as well as foreign interventions, and not to mention nationalists in the Caucasus, could be forced to give up enough territory to make a Circassian Republic (we can assume that Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia will be independent as well).

South Kuban would definitely be the ideal territory for an SSR, although maybe cut out Novorossiysk to get rid of the main Russian population center. I suppose you'd have to cut out Anapa and Temryuk to get a corridor to the North Kuban republic.

The Abkhaz would be as in OTL an ASSR of the Georgian SSR, but maybe expanded northwest along the Black Sea coast to include Sochi. The Russians in Sochi would probably make it about half Russian. If the USSR falls, then the Georgians would likely get ethnically cleansed as in OTL. We can also assume that TTL, the only way Sochi (something like Šwača in Abkhaz, although as long as the Russians are there it'll still be known as Sochi internationally) is hosting the Winter Olympics is if the USSR still exists.

What POD are you looking for? I was considering pitching the idea that Ivan's Kardbardian wife Maria Temryukovna lives, and her son with Ivan, Vasily lives as well in the make Circassia Great Again thread. Ivan previously had an alliance with them and did like Maria's brother Mikhail Cherkassky. If Vasily lives instead of dying early, I'm willing to take a guess she won't be assassinated, nor would Mikhail be killed in the Oprichnina purges.

I'm looking for a POD as late as possible, really.
 
They would get their own SSR, which probably won't include Kabarda but who knows. It's also possible that Abkhazia would be its own SSR, and not shoved into Georgia. Though the butterflies may be a bit too big to assume the creation of the Soviet regime as per OTL.

Regarding effects on the Ottoman Empire: the Circassians were settled into volatile borderlands as soldiers and irregulars, where they sometimes contributed to the hostility and violence between the Ottoman state and the Christian population. For example, the Bulgarian uprising was partially triggered by the actions of a Circassian militia.

Still, there are also known cases where the Circassian had a decent relationship with local Christians. And many cases where the Ottomans escalated the violence without the help of single Circassian. So IMO the absence of the Circassians doesn't make things significantly better or more stable in the Ottoman Empire, - it just prevents certain specific events happening in that specific way, while also slightly reducing the Sultan's military power.
 
I was considering pitching the idea that Ivan's Kardbardian wife Maria Temryukovna lives, and her son with Ivan, Vasily lives as well in the make Circassia Great Again thread. Ivan previously had an alliance with them and did like Maria's brother Mikhail Cherkassky. If Vasily lives instead of dying early, I'm willing to take a guess she won't be assassinated, nor would Mikhail be killed in the Oprichnina purges.

Was Maria Temryukovna really assassinated? I thought that was just a speculation, even if Ivan believed so and it fed into his increasing paranoia.
 
The Bolshevik/Russian Civil War situation is definitely dependent on a lot of things. But ultimately a less successful Bolsheviks, pressed by the remaining White Russians as well as foreign interventions, and not to mention nationalists in the Caucasus, could be forced to give up enough territory to make a Circassian Republic (we can assume that Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia will be independent as well).

South Kuban would definitely be the ideal territory for an SSR, although maybe cut out Novorossiysk to get rid of the main Russian population center. I suppose you'd have to cut out Anapa and Temryuk to get a corridor to the North Kuban republic.

The Abkhaz would be as in OTL an ASSR of the Georgian SSR, but maybe expanded northwest along the Black Sea coast to include Sochi. The Russians in Sochi would probably make it about half Russian. If the USSR falls, then the Georgians would likely get ethnically cleansed as in OTL. We can also assume that TTL, the only way Sochi (something like Šwača in Abkhaz, although as long as the Russians are there it'll still be known as Sochi internationally) is hosting the Winter Olympics is if the USSR still exists.
I doubt that would be the case frankly, or at least in anything resembling OTL WW1, the Northern Caucasus is extremely decentralized and ethnicalyl divided compared to the southern part, that discourages cohesive separatist rebellions.

The entire coast would be probably cut off, connecting Russia to Georgia.

I doubt that without Russia intervention there would be any Abkhaz state, they would probably end up under Georgia and the ASSR would be majority Georgia-Russian.
 
Was Maria Temryukovna really assassinated? I thought that was just a speculation, even if Ivan believed so and it fed into his increasing paranoia.

I'm not too sure myself, she did die quite young and was unpopular with the people and only gave birth to a son who died in infancy, I wouldn't rule it out. Then again I could never find much in the way of satisfactory answers, on any aspect of Ivan the Terrible.
 
The genocide of the Circassians and other Muslim peoples of Caucasus by the Russian Empire ranks as one of the most effective ethnic cleansings in history, with entire groups of people like the Ubykh decimated. The survivors were forced into the Ottoman Empire and beyond.

But let's say the Russians don't go for such an extreme policy. Let's say they encourage and give some "forceful nudging" to have Muslims move to the Ottoman Empire or otherwise leave, but the numbers which leave or are killed are a fraction of what they are OTL. The local Circassians and others are still second-class citizens. There's some localised incidents of violence periodically as well. Russians and others (Ukrainians, Germans, etc.) still move in to settle the area.

So what would the demographics of the area look like in this case? How many millions of Circassians (and other peoples which suffered from the Russians, like the Abkhaz) would live there? What would the ratio of Russians to Circassians, etc. be?

And for historical effects, how does not having hundreds of thousands of Circassians and others affect the Ottoman Empire? Does Circassia reassert independence if the Russian Empire still falls? If the Soviet Union still replaces it, does it get its own SSR and thus is equivalent to Georgia and such?

Traditional Circassian Sufi-nature religion stays intact ?
 
The POD here has to be around 1858-59.
The Circassian chiefs had reached a decent agreement whereby they had submitted to Russia at the time, an agreement that would quickly break down leading to the final ethnic cleansing campaing (the nastiest one IIRC, though the Russians had been very brutal before), but then it was grudgingly seen as satisfactory by both the Circassian leaders and St. Petersburg. Now, the Caucasian campaigns at that point had tied down a huge portion of the Russian military, something that displeased many at court. One of the reason to go "final solution" was this one, in my understanding. However, the Russians might instead chose to scale down their Caucasian commitments then (though a huge military presence would be kept), likely to reinforce Central Asia (Kaufman's campaigns there would be speedier).
Some Circassians would probably rebel again at some point, and get repressed. But maybe they do so in, say, 1863, when Russia is busy with a Polish uprising and probably more engaged in Central Asia (perhaps they fully annex Bukhara IITL). Many Circassians would still relocate, and this would likely delay the Bulgarian uprising (the underlying reasons however remain, so it's likely bound to happen down the line). Also, less Muslims in Eastern Anatolia and slightly less in the Levant (Ottoman control marginally more precarious there? And more basis for Russia to act as the "protector" of Armenians, though perhaps less Armenian discontent with the Porte too).
So, the Russo-Turkish war of 1877-78 does not happen on schedule (although a major conflict between the two is very likely in the following years; the exact timeframe and specifics are important since it may easily devolve into general European war in the right circumstances). Russia has a somewhat stronger army (they also would recruit a lot of Circassians).
From then on, who knows? WWI is different, if it happens at all, Soviet Union is likely butterlied away.
 
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