Cato's Cavalry

The main drive for the Islamic expansion out of Arabia was primarily demographic. The available land was not enough for an expanding population, along comes a uniting religion and off you go and knock over the war exhausted local empires! In this timeline the eastern empire is stirring the pot in the successor states of this western Roman Empire prior to an invasion to retake them for the empire!!!! Ala OTL really but including Britannia this time! Even if islam is butterflied away I think that the Arab invasion will still happen. that the stirrup will have made its way to both the arabs and the Persians by now is I think a given. This would have massive effects on these areas due to the reliance on horses for the basis of military might (in part due to the lack of rivers and the distances involved if nothing else) so it's roll your dice time!
 
The main drive for the Islamic expansion out of Arabia was primarily demographic. The available land was not enough for an expanding population, along comes a uniting religion and off you go and knock over the war exhausted local empires! In this timeline the eastern empire is stirring the pot in the successor states of this western Roman Empire prior to an invasion to retake them for the empire!!!! Ala OTL really but including Britannia this time! Even if islam is butterflied away I think that the Arab invasion will still happen. that the stirrup will have made its way to both the arabs and the Persians by now is I think a given. This would have massive effects on these areas due to the reliance on horses for the basis of military might (in part due to the lack of rivers and the distances involved if nothing else) so it's roll your dice time!

Not quite "ala OTL".

By the equivalent date in OTL, all of the Western Empire had fallen to various tribes of barbarians
and the Eastern Empire was actively campaigning in Italy to reconquer territory.

in TTL, there is still a core that is essentially Western Roman with an (almost) intact infrastructure
surrounded by (relatively) well organised allied states
 
I can't remember exactly what has broken from the Western Empire. Britannia and Gaul yes, but what of Hispania? I'm fairly sure North Africa is still loyal to Rome and presumably the various islands in the Western Med are as well. This time there is some defensive depth in North Africa so even if the Arabs manage to capture Egypt I don't see them getting much further. Not that I see them getting Egypt or holding it if they did.
 
I can't remember exactly what has broken from the Western Empire. Britannia and Gaul yes, but what of Hispania? I'm fairly sure North Africa is still loyal to Rome and presumably the various islands in the Western Med are as well. This time there is some defensive depth in North Africa so even if the Arabs manage to capture Egypt I don't see them getting much further. Not that I see them getting Egypt or holding it if they did.
Hispania became de facto independent of the empire since around when Gaul declared independence. Imperial government under Stilicho retreated to Italia and focused on food production in Africa, border security in Illyria, and anti-corruption and political restructuring in Italia. Hispania therefore did a Britannia and started looking after its own affairs.

It later declared formal independence after Justinian's meddling caused it severe internal turmoil, which likely soured the local perception of the Roman Empire. Its ruler styled himself Rex (King).

The old Western Roman Empire is now:
-Western Roman Empire (Italia, Africa, Illyria)
-Gaul
-Hispania
-Britannia
 
Speaking of Justinian:

@Cymraeg did the Plague of Justinian arrive in Europe? Cato-verse Europe is full of trade networks so it's going to do horrific damage to demographics.
 
Speaking of Justinian:

@Cymraeg did the Plague of Justinian arrive in Europe? Cato-verse Europe is full of trade networks so it's going to do horrific damage to demographics.
Doubtless it would still have an effect, but without the ravages of war and famine, the population would be less exposed than OTL.
 
Other way around sadly, more population, higher trade volumes, more carriers and victims exposed to the plague.
I'm thinking in terms of the average health of each individual in the population, not the overall numbers. People who aren't eating enough are more prone to disease. Whether that has a significant positive effect against whatever Justinian's plague was, I don't know.
 
I'm thinking in terms of the average health of each individual in the population, not the overall numbers. People who aren't eating enough are more prone to disease. Whether that has a significant positive effect against whatever Justinian's plague was, I don't know.
Good nutrition will help, but that won't be enough against the Plague of Justinian. That was a strain of the bubonic plague, virulent and deadly.
 
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