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That's right, lets have a China that is predominantly Catholic. Now, before anyone screams ASB! I want to make this clear: the conversion of China is supposed to be gradual. I don't expect to see a Catholic majority for at least a century after the start of conversion.

My idea as the most likely PoD is this: St. Francis Xavier lives a few years longer and manages to get into China proper. Historically, he died on an island waiting for approval to get into China. With these few extra years, St. Francis manages to win anywhere from a few hundred to at most a couple thousand converts. The real key here is that several of Francis's converts will be from merchant families who are well educated. These men buy passage to europe where they study to become priests and help pay for their education by translating several chinese works (like the Antalects) into Latin. St. Ignatius, head of the Jesuits, is able to get these priests to be an audience with the Pope. The head of Chinese deligation is able to grudgingly get the Pope to agree to let them say the mass in the offical court dialect of Chinese after giving a passionate speech about how Rome and China held equal stature. Furthermore, his arugment was that, just as the Appostles had to speak Latin, not Aramaic, to win souls in the West, so to must they speak Chinese, not Latin to win souls in the East.

Once ordained, these Chinese priests head back to China just in time to give St. Francis last rites. They then go about China wining more converts and shipping a few to Europe each year for training as priests. By the time the last of the 'Original Han priests', as the first group is known as, dies China has at least one seminary. For the next century, the Catholics in China continue to gather more and more converts. Conversion rates speed up by the early part of the 17th century due to first the priests harmonizing Confucian philosophy (since by Western thinking it's classified as a philosophy and not a religion) with Catholic theology and then by termoil caused by the breakdown of Ming control.

Now, instead of the Qing (or their timeline counterparts) taking control of all China after the Ming, China becomes divided in two. A charismatic Han (native Chinese) general is able to pull the fragments of the Ming armies together and solidify his rule with the diving line between the two Chinas somewhere between the Yellow River and the Yangtze. This creates an interesting situation where the North is ruled by a foregin dynasty that sets itself up as a traditional Chinese dynasty while the South is ruled by a native dynasty that is Catholic and heavily influinced by Europe. I see the southern kingdom slowly conquring its northern rival over the next century as the south is kept updated by scientific thought in the west, in some cases Southern Chinese scientists are able to make discoveries that intrigue their western counterparts.

This creates an interesting situation where Europe has a 'modern' counterpart in the form of China to balance the scales of power. Furthermore, I see the Protestant Reformation losing some ground, not destroyed mind you just weakened, because of the Roman Church gaining millions of converts over time from China. Naturally, the various Protestant groups will try to get a piece of the action in China. However, they will not make much headway for four reasons. The first is that the first proestant preachers will treat the Chinese like Europeans which will annoy many Chinese. Second, the Catholics have the inside track in China with their native priests. Third, the Protestants will have trouble with presenting an individual revilation and relationship with God verses the Catholic presentation of an orderly Church which can be presented as a spiritual mandate seperate but equal to the Mandate of Heaven that empowers the Emperor. (I mean no disrespect for any protestant readers. However, you have to admit that a native Chinese convert could spin the local magistrates who are rather traditionalist into a favorable view of a religion with authority and traditions stretching back 1,500 years at that time. On the other hand, protestant practices at that time would be more likely to set off alarm bells among the Chinese government whereas the Catholic Church could with native help get benigned negligence from the Ming government.). The final reason that the Roman Catholic Church would get China in this senario over Protestant groups is the most basic: they got there first and didn't let go of an early lead.

So, what do you think of this idea?
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