Because Karl XIII is a nephew of Karl XII and not some elective nobody?

It does not matter who he is. Sweden became the Great Power due to a combination of the very specific circumstances which did not exist in the mid XVIII and even at the beginning of that century when it was convincingly demonstrated that even a highly competent Swedish military leader can not win a war against not very competent opponent with much greater resources. In the best case scenario Sweden could retain its territories on the Eastern coast of the Baltic Sea but this would require that the main opponent had a different set of the priorities (for example, being more interested in expansion into the CA, strengthening position on the Far East, concentrated on Wars with the Ottomans, etc.). In other words, maintaining of the status quo greatly depended on others policies. Chances are that Sweden would be losing pieces of land to Brandenburg even without the GNW.

Of course, it took a cool head to grasp situation fully and readjust policy accordingly. And the head cool enough to get that and intelligent enough to act upon that understanding was not available until 1810 (even if he was an elected nobody; well a nobody who managed to “made” himself is not quite a nobody).
 
I was talking that the most successful they could achieve is OTL Gustav III level of success. It seems that our debacle about 1690ies Russian generals caused missing the point. Cause you've just reformulated what I've said. Neither greatness, nor decline.
 
It does not matter who he is. Sweden became the Great Power due to a combination of the very specific circumstances which did not exist in the mid XVIII and even at the beginning of that century when it was convincingly demonstrated that even a highly competent Swedish military leader can not win a war against not very competent opponent with much greater resources. In the best case scenario Sweden could retain its territories on the Eastern coast of the Baltic Sea but this would require that the main opponent had a different set of the priorities (for example, being more interested in expansion into the CA, strengthening position on the Far East, concentrated on Wars with the Ottomans, etc.). In other words, maintaining of the status quo greatly depended on others policies. Chances are that Sweden would be losing pieces of land to Brandenburg even without the GNW.

Of course, it took a cool head to grasp situation fully and readjust policy accordingly. And the head cool enough to get that and intelligent enough to act upon that understanding was not available until 1810 (even if he was an elected nobody; well a nobody who managed to “made” himself is not quite a nobody).

While Sweden wasn’t in as good position as in the 17th century, I do think Sweden could have potential to return to greatness in the 18th century. But I think that the Swedish Catherine would be too late for it. The problem was that Sweden became a oligarchy after the Great Northern War with a incredible corrupt and incompetent political class. I think if the Gottorps succeeds in taking power after the death of Charles XII and keep Sweden a absolute monarchy, Sweden do have a potential, if the Gottorps do the right things:

No risky foreign adventures, focus on domestic development. As for wars in my view there was only two wars from 1721-1789 which it would make sense for the Swedes to intervene in; the War of Austrian Succession and the Seven Years War and they should go after as much of Pomerania as they could get. It would be easier to tax than Sweden proper.

Swedish agricultural potential are greater than we usual think about, and a focus on introduce the turn plough (Rotherham Plough) and red clover in the fertile areas of Sweden, and the potato in the less productive areas of Sweden which could both fuel a population boom and result in a increase in manufacturing. While Sweden likely can’t fully industrialize early on, their manufacturing stayed competitive through the 18th century.
 
Um...am I the only one wondering why Karl Peter Ulrich would be married to Sophie of Anhalt-Zerbst? AIUI Fique was Yelizaveta Petrovna's choice for the reason that SHOULD she prove infertile or difficult to manage, that she could be sent home with the MINOR fuss.

OTOH, if by some time delay, KPU winds up as heir to Sweden instead of Russia (think there were only a few weeks between the two), the Swedish Estates are the ones who'll be deciding on his wife. And why would they go with anyone besides a Prussian princess for a nobody from Anhalt? (Luise Ulrike of Prussia's godmother was Ulrika Eleonora, Queen of Sweden, and there was an understanding that that Luise would marry Ulrika's son just as what Ulrika herself had previously been engaged to Luise's dad).

Likewise, Denmark had plans to marry Louisa of Denmark (OTL duchess of Hildburghausen) to whoever was chosen as heir to the throne of Sweden. It seems to me that BOTH Louises seem far more likely candidates than what Fique would be. (At least to me)
 
Um...am I the only one wondering why Karl Peter Ulrich would be married to Sophie of Anhalt-Zerbst? AIUI Fique was Yelizaveta Petrovna's choice for the reason that SHOULD she prove infertile or difficult to manage, that she could be sent home with the MINOR fuss.

OTOH, if by some time delay, KPU winds up as heir to Sweden instead of Russia (think there were only a few weeks between the two), the Swedish Estates are the ones who'll be deciding on his wife. And why would they go with anyone besides a Prussian princess for a nobody from Anhalt? (Luise Ulrike of Prussia's godmother was Ulrika Eleonora, Queen of Sweden, and there was an understanding that that Luise would marry Ulrika's son just as what Ulrika herself had previously been engaged to Luise's dad).

Likewise, Denmark had plans to marry Louisa of Denmark (OTL duchess of Hildburghausen) to whoever was chosen as heir to the throne of Sweden. It seems to me that BOTH Louises seem far more likely candidates than what Fique would be. (At least to me)
Either Louisa look a more likely and better match for Peter in Sweden than Sophie.
Sophie instead if ages consent it would still have very good chances to be choised as wife for the Russian heir by Elizaveta for two reasons: the small importance of her family but specially the fact who the Empress once was engaged to Sophie’s uncle who died before marrying her
 
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