Catherine II (accidental or not) Germanisation of Russia

[Deleted member 92195]

Catherine sets up a comprehensive and simple immigration plan for Germans to settle in Russia. The plan has two prongs:

First prong: ‘German immigration/migration society’ is set up to receive Germans.

Second Prong: Rostov-On-Don is designated the settlement area for ease of sea route access and for concentrated immigration to flow steadily into Russia. Upon arrival immigrates can either remain in Rostov-On-Don or immigrate elsewhere.

In 1761 a Fort was established in Rostov-On-Don. Therefore it is specifically picked for German industrialisation of the North Caucasus and for them to immigrate towards the Volga River using the Don River.

Climate:

The Volga River is in what you call a Cold semi-arid climate but the Don River is in the humid continental climate. Semi-arid climates are difficult to live in because they receive precipitation below potential evapotranspiration, but not as low as a desert climate. (Evapotranspiration is the process by which water is transferred from the land to the atmosphere by evaporation from the soil and other surfaces and by transpiration from plants.) Humid continental climate, however, have varying climate over the seasons. The winter is moderately cold, with an average February temperature of −3.1 °C, whilst Summers are hot and humid; July temperatures average +23.3 °C.

This is a quote of someone who lived in Rostov-On-Don:

“There were sultry days of brassy sun, but also cool evenings on the balconies facing the Don River, with the soft glow of charcoal in the samovar, with the ripe cherries crushed by your spoon against the bottom and sides of your glass of scalding tea.” - Albert Parry

The population in 1811 was only 4,000 and the settlement charter was only in 1796 after the fortress was built in 1761.

Conclusion:

Looking at it retrospectively the Germans not only immigrated sporadically but also backwards. Despite the benefits of living on the Volga River and within the basin, it does not have access to the world’s oceans only the Caspian Sea, which is restricted to Asia. Rostov-On-Don area, on the other hand, is a port city on Sea of Azov, which is connected to the Black Sea, Sea of Marmara, the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean Sea.

In this scenario, the Germans are not thousands of miles inland but sit on a port fortress, on the coast with constant access to their homeland. The Germans can now begin to migrate along the Don river towards the Volga River.

 

[Jürgen]

I don’t see a German Russia being possible, but I think the Russian-Ukranian borderland and the areas around the Black Sea would be the best region for large scale German settlement. In OTL the settlement was relative limited by the fact that most of the early settlers was Hessians, there was a good reason for the Hessian states didn’t limit emigration, which most major German states did. Other German regions which saw large emigration was the Rhineland and Swabia, but the Swabians mostly settled in Austria military frontier, while the Rhinelanders migrated to the west. The big potential price for a major emigration spot to Russia would be Württemberg, it was not a state which saw large scale emigration, but with the ducal family ended up as connected to the Russian royal family, we could have seen emigration from it, Oldenburg if it stayed in union with Russia could also deliver settlers.

 

[Deleted member 92195]

I don’t see a German Russia being possible, but I think the Russian-Ukranian borderland and the areas around the Black Sea would be the best region for large scale German settlement. In OTL the settlement was relative limited by the fact that most of the early settlers was Hessians, there was a good reason for the Hessian states didn’t limit emigration, which most major German states did. Other German regions which saw large emigration was the Rhineland and Swabia, but the Swabians mostly settled in Austria military frontier, while the Rhinelanders migrated to the west. The big potential price for a major emigration spot to Russia would be Württemberg, it was not a state which saw large scale emigration, but with the ducal family ended up as connected to the Russian royal family, we could have seen emigration from it, Oldenburg if it stayed in union with Russia could also deliver settlers.

What about Germans from Pomerania, Prussia (province areas), Hanover, Saxony, Silesia, Schleswig-Holstein?

My original scenario was that the Thirty Years war does not happen and by 1761 there is a higher German population to migrate. However, to me, that does not seem like a good enough reason. I understand there needs to be an underlining trigger for mass immigration. Then it hit me, war does cause mass immigration in itself, doesn't it? Look at the Near East and what the Syrian Civil war has caused or more vividly WW2. So if Ivan the Terrible in 1533-1584 implemented a comprehensive immigration plan. Therefore with reasonable suspicion, one would expect that the average German might migrate strongly towards Russia because of this devasting and horrible war. What is great, is that up to 5 million Germans may migrate which is a lot. In this scenario the Germans would not migrate to the Rostov-on-Don area because it was not Russian at this point but they could populate St. Petersburg travelling through the Baltic Sea.

This saves Germans from death but Germanizes large parts of Russia. Is that plausible?

In 1600 the population of the Tsardom of Russia was 14 million and HRE population 20 million.

 

[Socrates]

I don’t see a German Russia being possible, but I think the Russian-Ukranian borderland and the areas around the Black Sea would be the best region for large scale German settlement. In OTL the settlement was relative limited by the fact that most of the early settlers was Hessians, there was a good reason for the Hessian states didn’t limit emigration, which most major German states did. Other German regions which saw large emigration was the Rhineland and Swabia, but the Swabians mostly settled in Austria military frontier, while the Rhinelanders migrated to the west. The big potential price for a major emigration spot to Russia would be Württemberg, it was not a state which saw large scale emigration, but with the ducal family ended up as connected to the Russian royal family, we could have seen emigration from it, Oldenburg if it stayed in union with Russia could also deliver settlers.

I could also see Russian Poland being a place for much greater German settlement if the partitions do not happen and the area remains a Russian vassal state.

 

[Deleted member 92195]

Germanisation in Poland

Germans begin to march on mass to the Duchy of Pomerania where they enter the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. They march towards the royal duchy of Prussia where they rest before continuing the long walk to the Tsardom of Russia which offers a safe haven. Tens of thousands of Germans settle in Poland in what would become ‘West Prussia’, ‘South Prussia’ and ‘New East Prussia’. The Germans in the Duchy of Prussia also offer settlements to fleeing Germans. Capacity however soon runs out and the region is used as a rest gap for migrating north-east. The Germans and Czechs/bohemians in the kingdom of Bohemia march north into central Poland towards the Duchy of Prussia where the so settle in Poland.

The above image is the population density of Europe in the 1600s.

The above image is the percentage decrease in the Holy Roman Empire during the Thirty Years War. (1618-1648)

This is the proposed German migration movements within the Thirty Years War.

Additional information:

“By 1600, about 25% of Poland's population lived in urban centers (settlements with over 500 people).[9] Major towns in Poland included: Gdańsk (Danzig) (70,000), Kraków (28,000), Warsaw (20,000-30,000), Poznań (20,000), Lwów (Lviv) (20,000), Elbląg (Elbing) (15,000), Toruń (Thorn) (12,000), Sandomierz (4,000-5,000), Kazimierz Dolny (4,000-5,000) and Gniezno (4,000-5,000).”

“In 1618, after the Truce of Deulino the Commonwealth population increased together with its territory, reaching 12 millions that could be roughly divided into: Poles - 4.5m, Ukrainians - 3.5m, Belarusians - 1.5m, Lithuanians - 0.75m, Prussians - 0.75m, Jews - 0.5m, Livionians - 0.5m; at that time nobility formed 10% and burghers, 15%.”

“Urban population of the Commonwealth was low compared to Western Europe. Exact numbers depend on calculation methods. According to one source, the urban population of the Commonwealth was about 20% of the total in the 17th century, compared to approximately 50% in the Netherlands and Italy (Pic. 7). Another source suggests much lower figures: 4–8% urban population in Poland, 34–39% in the Netherlands and 22–23% in Italy. The Commonwealth's preoccupation with agriculture, coupled with the szlachta's privileged position when compared to the bourgeoisie, resulted in a fairly slow process of urbanization and thus a rather slow development of industries.”

The Germanisation of Russia

Tsdardom of Muscovy total landmass equals 1,660,000 km2

It reported that the Tsdardom had 14 million inhabitants

Therefore: 14,000,000, / 1,660,000 = 8.43373494 (Number of migrants divided by the landmass of the principality)

This calculation says there are 8 Russians people per Square Mile. (Presumably inaccurate) This simple calculation is saying that for every Square Mile there are 8 Russian people for one million six hundred and sixty thousand square miles. (1,660,000)

This image represents the Square Mile in comparison to geography.

The disadvantage of this calculation is that it treats towns and cities in 17th century Russia as 8 Russian people per square mile but this is wrong. Despite the disadvantage of this calculation it does seem to represent the vast landmass of Muscovy. There will be a variation in the 8 Russians Per Square mile calculation because of populated towns and cities. However, it cannot be determined how much of a variation but the Muscovy landmass will counteract this because of its sheer size. In conclusion, I cannot see there being 7 or 9 Russians Per Square Mile.

The German-Russian ratio represents the equation of what if a collection of German migrants, migrating to Russia, all migrated to one square mile. If there is 1000 Germans and they migrated to any of the principalities the result will naturally be in decimal places. The problem with this calculation is that migrants are not going to separate and all go to one square Mile. This would actually increase the Germans being russified, because the Germans are separate and not a collective unit. It is also not normal behaviour to separate from your fellow countryman upon fleeing war to find safe haven in another country. (See appendix at the end.)

Nevertheless, this method of hypothesising migrant ‘flows’ is still useful. There is no data of which I know, which gives the population of towns and cities in 1600s Russia. You can insinuate it and paint and a broad brush. The best way to do this to collect the current populations of those towns and cities in 1600s Russia, this is what I found:

Principality and Land of Novgorod: 151,000 km2

• Luga – 38,593
• Pskov – 19,000-20,000
• Izborsk – (ancient fortress, currently a village)
• Ostrov - 21,668
• Cholm - 3,830
• Novgorod – 25,000 – 30,000
• Staraya Rusa - When Ivan the Terrible ascended the throne in 1533, Staraya Russa was a populous town. During the Time of Troubles, it was held by Polish brigands and heavily depopulated. Only thirty-eight people lived there in 1613.
• Velikiye Luki - 98,778
• Toropez - 13,015
• Borovichi - 53,690. The settlement was first mentioned in 1495. It was granted town status in 1770 by Catherine the Great.
• Slanzy – 33,485 - only a settlement
• Tikhvin - 58,459. In 1613, Tikhvin was captured, ransacked, and burned. Its location at the intersection of trade routes which connected the Volga River with Lake Ladoga and the Baltic Sea ensured its rapid development. At the beginning of the 16th century, it was already a widely known commerce and trade centre.
• Ladoga - Used as a prosperous trading outpost and a multi-ethnic settlement.

Principality of Smolensk: 79,600 km2

• Smolensk - 25,000 – 30,000
• Roslavl - 54,900
• Andrusowo - only a settlement
• Vyazma - 57,101
• Bryansk - 415,72

Principality of Tver: 126,000 km2

• Ostaschkow 18,088 (On the Volga River)
• Rzhev - 61,982 (On the Volga River)
• Tver - 403,606 (On the Volga River)
• Klin - 80,585
• Dmitrov - 61,305. The town suffered further damage during the Time of Troubles, when it was ransacked by the Poles.
• Pereyaslav - 27,945
• Uglitch - 34,507 (On the Volga River)
• Rybinsk - 200,771 (On the Volga River)
• Bezhetsk - 24,522

Principality of Moscow: 297,000 km2

• Moskva - In 1547, two fires destroyed much of the town, and in 1571 the Crimean Tatars captured Moscow, burning everything except the Kremlin. The annals record that only 30,000 of 200,000 inhabitants survived. The Russian famine of 1601–03 killed perhaps 100,000 in Moscow. During the first half of the 17th century, the population of Moscow doubled from roughly 100,000 to 200,000. Numerous disasters befell the city. The plague epidemics ravaged Moscow in 1570–1571, 1592 and 1654–1656. The plague killed upwards of 80% of the people in 1654–55. Fires burned out much of the wooden city in 1626 and 1648.
• Obninsk - 104,739
• Kaluga - 324,698
• Kolomna - 144,589
• Chatoura - 33,491
• Kasimov - 33,491
• Pereeslavl’-Ryazansky (Ryazan) - 524,927
• Murom – 25,000 – 30,000
• Vladimir - 345,373
• Yuryev-Polsky - 19,595
• Arzamas - 106,362
• Yaropolch (Vyazniki) - 41,248
• Suzdal - 10,535
• Starodub Klyazminsky - During the Time of Troubles, the town was completely burnt to the ground by the Polish warlord Alexander Jozef Lisowski, who ravaged the area in March 1609.
• Rostov - 31,792
• Ivanovo - 408,330
• Jaroslval (On the Volga River) - 591,486
• Kostroma (On the Volga River) - 268,742
• Kineshma (On the Volga River) - 88,164
• Yuryevets (On the Volga River) - 10,210
• Gorodez (On the Volga River) - 30,658
• Nizhy Novgorod - 25,000 – 30,000
• Bui (Buy) - 25,763
• Galich - 17,346
• Scharja - 23,681
• Tsaryovokokshaysk (Yoshkar-Ola) - 248,782
• Cabaqsar – (Cheboksary) - 453,721
• Tchatsk (Shatsk) - 6,561

Severia: 82,700 km2

• Starodub - 19,010
• Novgorod-Seversky - 13,289
• Olgov (Lgov) - 21,453
• Popowa Gora - (Krasnaya Gora) - 5,906
• Souraj - (Surazh) - 11,640
• Poczep - (Pochep) - 17,161
• Glouchkovo – (unable to find)
• Novoselicy – (unable to find)
• Czernihov – 25,000 – 30,000. In 1623 received Magdeburg rights and the coat of arms, and in 1635 became the capital of the Chernihiv province of the First Polish Republic . Place performances nobility province Chernihiv. By a resolution of 1633, the Sejm established a stronghold (castle starosty) and a court of law in Chernihiv, as well as the dignity of the castellan of the Black Sea and the offices of the land. In 1634, a room in Polanówhe eventually left Czernihów to the Commonwealth. Rzeczpospolita lost actual control over the city during the Khmelnytsky uprising and after the war with Moscow began in 1654.

This image is the Population density of the Russian Empire in 1895. Crucially the population density is before World War 1 and World War 2 where the population density had not changed drastically. Notice how the Principality of Moscow area is highly populated around Moscow compared to Principality and Land of Novgorod in the North. Remember St. Petersburg does not exist in the 1600s, its construction started in 1701.

Alternative Partition of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth:

“In the 17th century, first Polish blast furnaces were constructed in Samsonów by Italian engineer Hieronim Caccio. Apart from iron products, used for military purposes, Old-Polish Industrial Region also manufactured charcoal and glass. In 1782, in Poland, there were 34 bloomeries, out of which 27 were located in Old-Polish Industrial Region. Another major industrial area of Lesser Poland is Zagłębie Dąbrowskie, where in the 16th century, lead, silver, and zinc were found. As early as in the 15th century, coal was extracted in Trzebinia – Siersza, and in the following centuries, especially in the 19th century, several coal mines and steel mills were opened in Zagłębie and in Zagłębie Krakowskie (first coal mine in Jaworzno was opened in 1792). In nearby Olkusz, the history of zinc mining dates to the 12th century when Casimir II the Just set up a mining settlement. Also, in the towns of Wieliczka and Bochnia, salt mines were established in the 12th and 13th centuries (see Bochnia Salt Mine, Wieliczka Salt Mine).”

Primary industrial cities were Kielce, Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski, Starachowice, Skarżysko-Kamienna and Radom. Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski, Starachowice and Skarżysko-Kamienna lay directly in-between Kielce and Radom in a triple line. These four cities lay just outside of Prussia’s annexation of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in 1795. These cities became Austrian within West Galicia.

The possible Germanisation of South Prussia is extremely difficult. With a population density of 28 Polish subjects Per Square Mile, it would take an astronomical amount of Germans to outnumber the Poles. 1 million Germans only equalled 18:28, 1.5 million equalled 28:28 but 2 million equalled 37:28. From these numbers, one can see why the Germans found it so difficult to Germanise West Prussia and Posen and why they eventually decided to use ethnic cleansing and genocide to accomplish their aims. One could say the then chancellor was frankly an idiot, its simple math. Polish population dived by annexed area equals 28. The number of Germans subjects divided by the annexed area equals the ratio. New East Prussia population density was much lower at 16.6 per Square Mile. Now it would require 2 million Germans to Germanise the Principality of Moscow but its 297,000 km2, which is 5 times bigger than South Prussia. The ratio though is lower at 6:8.

Having calculated the numbers required to Germanise Russia and South Prussia, one notices the difficulty each possesses but which one is easier. South Prussia was a highly densely populated area that would really require a high migration, whereas Russia has a hypothetical sparse population through its sheer landmass. In this case, sparsely populated areas are easier to populate as long as the migration is larger.

This calls for an alternative partition of Poland, see maps below.

 

[Deleted member 92195]

The population of Polish-Lithuanian cities mainly in the 1600s:

Appendix images to the Germanisation of Russia:

The image below shows the possible migrant 'flows'. This was also used as a template for the calculations below.

Calculations:

The 10:8 ratio was dependent on 2 million Germans migrating to the Principality to Moscow.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

You're assuming that without 30YW everything would be like IOTL expect for higher population of HRE? Butterflies would be massive in HRE and all around (PLC, Sweden, Denmark also would be massively impacted). Prussia would not exist like IOTL, Sweden would not be such military powerhouse without experience of 30YW, also PLC would not be the same without fall of grain prices caused by massive population loses in HRE and without destruction of Deluge (Charles X Gustav would not have army of 30YW veterans).

 

[Deleted member 92195]

You're assuming that without 30YW everything would be like IOTL expect for higher population of HRE? Butterflies would be massive in HRE and all around (PLC, Sweden, Denmark also would be massively impacted). Prussia would not exist like IOTL, Sweden would not be such military powerhouse without experience of 30YW, also PLC would not be the same without fall of grain prices caused by massive population loses in HRE and without destruction of Deluge (Charles X Gustav would not have army of 30YW veterans).

I'm not saying the Thirty Years war will not happen, my thought has developed since my first post. This is a rearrangement of the proposal to Germanise Russia. Germans would not be able to Germanise Russia on this scale in 1761. I am proposing that the war does happen but the simple solution is: war causes mass migration because people don't want to die or the Thirty Years War causes the Germanisation.

In relation to an alternative partition of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, I just did that for my own needs for the development of something else because they are loosely connected. (It's a freebie) It's really the Germanisation in Poland and the Germanisation of Russia which the posts concentrate.

Read my posts and maybe you'd know what I am talking about.

 

[Deleted member 92195]

The previous posts were academic reports to determine if large German migration to the east is possible. I came to the conclusion that under the correct circumstances yes it was possible but I realised what’s missing is a figurehead ignition to meet and fuse the idea of migration as a consequence of not being killed in the European Wars of Religion. Therefore we can say that:

• The proposal that mass devastation caused by the Thirty Years War is one half of the condition for German migration, however there needs to be another ignition to propose that migration is a good solution to avoid mass devastation of the population.

In this particular circumstance, this would be a Sovereign ruler and would have to be Protestant. A catholic ruler would not work in this scenario because they are not the religious group be persecuted and killed for believing in a reformed religion of Catholicism. Protestants are therefore more likely to migrate than Catholics but the call to migrate by a Protestant ruler may initiate Catholics to migrate as well when the war becomes more widespread. The Sovereign ruler who I picked for initiating the migration of Germans is Frederick V of the Palatinate, who is head of the Protestant Union itself.

The essence of the plan is as follows:

• Military victory within the empire is impossible at the current state of my army; therefore if I can win a stalemate or limited victory in the first battle I will gain a strategic and valuable time to migrate a large majority of German Protestants within the Empire elsewhere in Europe.
• Negotiate with Gustavus Adolphus of Sweden to arrange passage of German Protestant’s to the Duchy of Ingria.
• Before the battle commences, Frederick V arranges that Protestants begin to flee to the Dutch Republic where ships await in the Ijsselmeer which guarantee safe passage to Ingria.

The reason I picked Ingria:

Settling in the Ingria region is more viable, sustainable and opportunistic than travelling from the Ingria region to Saratov in 1620 because settling here or around that area at this point would have had savage tribes and been unviable and unsustainable to travel and live in conditions on that route; to only get to Saratov and find that they would have to build new homes and begin to make a living immediately in the southern-Eastern sector of The Czardom of Russia. The Ingria region on the other hand was small, secure, protected and had clear trading routes back to their German homeland.

The Course of events:

Frederick docks in Ingria with 1 million Protestants in 1621, he continues to be a vocal critic of Habsburg aggression against Protestantism and the destruction and devastation of German cities and lands. He sends 'messengers' to the Holy Roman Empire who shout through towns and cities saying that "Ingria is a safe haven, Ingria gives life not death. Take the white sailing ship to Ingria at Ijsselmeer or Lubeck, otherwise, you'll be raped, tortured and killed!!!! I say take that WHITE SAILING SHIP!!! because you'll be rewarded with a long life." The Danish intervention in 1625 prompts large Protestants in the north of Germany to begin to take the Lubeck trade port to Ingria, whilst others in Hanoverian areas travel to the Dutch Republic to the West, where they also sail to Ingria. The Danish invasion in 1625 provokes another 1 million Germans to travel in 1625/1626 alone. The Danish intervention leads to the first Catholics to arrive in 1625 as they realise the war is not just a religious war anymore but a general war. The next wave of mass migration is in 1630 with Gustavus Adolphus invasion. When he lands in Pomerania words spreads from town to town which results in mass panic, this results in another 1 million people flocking to Frederick’s proposal of a safe heaven. There is steady migration from 1632 to 1645 which total some 800,000 people, however, the final mass migration wave is in 1645 with a French military campaign across southern Germany resulting in another 1 million Germans to flock northern through the Dutch Republic and Lubeck.

In 1621-22 the first Huguenot rebellions take place. In an initiative to get a larger and more industrious population, Frederick sends a diplomatic mission to Southern France inviting French Huguenots to Ingria. The mission arrives in 1623 and the Huguenots accept the proposal. The diplomatic mission returns to inform Frederick in 1624 and he begins to arrange ship transport for transporting some 1.2 million Huguenots over 12 years. 100,000 people are to be transported a year which equates to 8,300 people a month. This steady flow of people gives Frederick time to accommodate the numbers within Ingria. The first ship arrives in 1626 and the last ship sails in 1637.

(“Most historians agree that the Huguenot population reached as many as 10% of the total population, or roughly 2 million people, on the eve of the St. Bartholomew's Day massacre in 1572. This declined to 7 to 8% by the end of the 16th century, and further after heavy persecution began once again with the Revocation of the Edict of Nantes by Louis XIV of France in 1685.”)

In 1620 the population of Ingria was 15,000 who were Swedish but by the time the Peace of Westphalia was signed in 1648 the population of Ingria was 5.6-6.0 million people. There are 4.6-4.8 German Protestants and 1.2 French Huguenots.

The German and French broke ground in making a new city in 1630 but did not know what to call it, but it was obvious by 1648 that it could only be named after one person. As head of the Protestant Union he was sanitized whilst still alive as the current Duchy of Ingria as Saint Frederick. He would have everlasting memory in those who lived in his city which was proclaimed by the people as Saint Fredericksburg.

In 1700 it is the well-beyond the wealthiest and prosperous city in Europe, with the largest industrial, finance and education sectors. It also has the largest commercial and naval docks with a well-established army of 300,000 men and a reasonable fleet. At this point in time, it has a population of 7 million people. The house of Palatine Simmern remain Dukes of Ingria under the Swedish king, however, the duke does not wish to become a king as he would have to fight for himself. The Swedish king at this point provides good protection to the Duchy at no expenses at all to the Duke. Despite this everyone knows that Swedish protection will run out and the Duchy will be given full independence because the Duchy is so powerful at this point, but the duke intends on pushing through continuous revolutionary economic, administrative, military and financial reforms as arisen to fight the Czardom of Russia is coming forth.

Migration towards the Volga River:

The whole reason why there became a small majority of Russian Germans was because Catherine the Great invited Germans into Russia with a comprehensive migration proposal. Under chaos theory, with the migration of German and French people to Ingria she may never take the throne and in this circumstance, if the Czardom of Russia is reluctant to allow Germans inside Russia because they have 6/7 million on the Gulf of Finland then that is far more Germans in East Europe than there ever was.

Peter III of Russia, however, might still marry a German princess but he never expected to get overthrown. The fact that she allowed Germans into Russia is pure indication that she still held German routes because she used the German population. Therefore if she still became Empress of Russia she could marry into the Duchy of Ingria and use its population to populate large pieces of unhabituated Russia lands but with the influence and word of her husband who would guarantee safety from tribes. The duchy marrying into the emperor would also serve it to pick and populate areas as it wished rather than definitely migrating to the Volga River which had such a harsh climate and savage environment to live in. The best strategy may be to migrate Germans to the Rybinsk Reservoir first and then migrate along the Volga River attached to it.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Ingria could not support million Germans with 17th century farming technology, they'll die like flies there. Leave alone plausibility of million people migrating across Baltic in single year.

 

[Deleted member 114175]

Ingria could not support million Germans with 17th century farming technology, they'll die like flies there. Leave alone plausibility of million people migrating across Baltic in single year.

"Everyone said I was daft to build a castle in a swamp, but I built it all the same, just to show them. It sank into the swamp. So I built a second one. That sank into the swamp. So I built a third. That burned down, fell over, then sank into the swamp. But the fourth one... stayed up! And that's what you're gonna get, lad: the strongest castle in these islands."

 

[Deleted member 92195]

Ingria could not support million Germans with 17th century farming technology, they'll die like flies there. Leave alone plausibility of million people migrating across Baltic in single year.

"Everyone said I was daft to build a castle in a swamp, but I built it all the same, just to show them. It sank into the swamp. So I built a second one. That sank into the swamp. So I built a third. That burned down, fell over, then sank into the swamp. But the fourth one... stayed up! And that's what you're gonna get, lad: the strongest castle in these islands."

I’m starting to realise nothing is possible but only what you think is in your vague imagination.

Anyway thank goodness I held back on my research because I can now systematically dissect and reverse the argument, which will be immensely fun and entertaining. I hope your argument fails and I hope you did not bank on what I wrote to based on my imagination.

Await for my coming reply.

 

[krieger]

I’m starting to realise nothing is possible but only what you think is in your vague imagination.

Anyway thank goodness I held back on my research because I can now systematically dissect and reverse the argument, which will be immensely fun and entertaining. I hope your argument fails and I hope you did not bank on what I wrote to based on my imagination.

Await for my coming reply.

Because it just wasn't possible. And it's not just about Germans, cold and hostile enviroment of Ingria wasn't even capable of sustaining such amount of people. No matter their ethnicity. And why Danes should send people to Ingria, land controlled by their own worst enemy, Sweden?

 

[Deleted member 92195]

If alls you have to say is criticism then don’t say anything at all because I at least can therefore be in solitude after posting my post far away from your hyper-inflated self-serving ego. That is what happens when I write a 6,000 word essay. I’m not surprised this has not been done before because you hawks won’t hear with what is being proposed.

I must say get a reality check because I notice how you and many others don’t actually have anything to say other than to regurgitate moaning criticism by shooting pot shots at my writing. Therefore it could be said you have all failed because you have a narrow field of analytical view and only think through one perspective because you just blatantly say that immigration to the east is impossible in all regards yet German immigrates immigrated. Don’t say “we didn’t say that” because that is what was being said on my first post in July.

Now I don’t want you posting on here anymore. So now sod off, haven’t you got to count the number of words on a page, otherwise I want to get onto my article and those who want to actually read it or I’ll just stick it on ice.

I do understand that in the eyes of some people, they will not agree with what is being proposed but all I hear is you all yacking and I cannot be presumptuous but I have 9 likes on my first post on this forum post.

 

[krieger]

If alls you have to say is criticism then don’t say anything at all because I at least can therefore be in solitude after posting my post far away from your hyper-inflated self-serving ego. That is what happens when I write a 6,000 word essay. I’m not surprised this has not been done before because you hawks won’t hear with what is being proposed.

I must say get a reality check because I notice how you and many others don’t actually have anything to say other than to regurgitate moaning criticism by shooting pot shots at my writing. Therefore it could be said you have all failed because you have a narrow field of analytical view and only think through one perspective because you just blatantly say that immigration to the east is impossible in all regards yet German immigrates immigrated. Don’t say “we didn’t say that” because that is what was being said on my first post in July.

Now I don’t want you posting on here anymore. So now sod off, haven’t you got to count the number of words on a page, otherwise I want to get onto my article and those who want to actually read it or I’ll just stick it on ice.

I do understand that in the eyes of some people, they will not agree with what is being proposed but all I hear is you all yacking and I cannot be presumptuous but I have 9 likes on my first post on this forum post.

Ok, you started being really arogant here. We don't disagree with you because we are jealous about your writing talents or length of your posts. We disagree with you because what you propose simply wouldn't be doable in that era and given time. For example, modern Russian Lenigrad Oblast (it is roughly equal in borders to historical Ingria) has only approximately (and in reality this number is even smaller than this) 2 mln inhabitants. And it's in XXIth century with modern healthcare, agriculture and all these luxuries not avaliable even for average XVIIth or XVIIIth century ROYAL! Do you think that some cold, wasteland swamp could afford to host 1 mln of people in XVIIth century? With it's shitty living conditions? And why king of Denmark should invite people to live in Sweden (because at that time Ingria was Swedish)? Sweden was his enemy and Swedes actively tried to strip said king from his most valuable lands. And why Swedish goverment should agree to Danish king doing mumbo-jumbo on their land? Sure, they would welcome a milion of new subjects - but on their own terms, not Danish. But again, there is nothing to do in XVIIth century Ingria for all these people. If Germans went massively retarded and wanted to risk their life in some wasteland far, far away from home they could as well (if not better) go to PLC-held Ukraine. At least they would receive fertile lands here. And Germans immigrants immigrated, but not in that number and they...didn't even try to form states? They gladly assimilated into the local culture. Do you know why? Because unlike Nazis said, Slavs aren't primitive barbarians incapable to impress someone with their culture. In Poland, for example almost all Germans settlers who came before XIXth century and age of mass-spread nationalism assimilated and adopted Polish self-identity. In Russia, Volga Germans were also loyal subjects of Tsar.

 

[The Great Krigare]

I don't think that Ingria would be the German Protestants' choice of where to migrate to in Sweden. If they were to go to Sweden, they'd likely settle in a few places instead.

• Mainland Sweden, specifically in the areas around Stockholm or in the new little city of Göteborg (Gothenburg). IOTL, Göteborg was where Gustav II Adolf encouraged German Protestants to settle, so as to build up his new (and only) city on Sweden's West coast.
• Estonia. This is likely where you would want them to go if you want Germans influencing Russia in any meaningful way. The city of Narva was a major trading center in the Baltic, being the entryway into Russia for centuries. As a bonus, the ruling nobility in Estonia was also extensively German. The downside is that Estonia, while much better land than Ingria, still can't support millions of Germans.
• Livonia. Livonia is much of the same as Estonia, near Russia, major trade center in Riga, better land than most of Sweden's territories, but still cannot support millions (plural intended) of people.

Your best bet is likely to get the Germans to settle extensively in both Estonia and Livonia (though that will likely have problems where if the Germans outnumber the natives, there will be conflict over serfdom. While Sweden proper had never had serfdom, the Baltic regions did at this point. The existing nobility in the Baltics would not necessarily take kindly to this challenge to the status quo). Settling in both gives the Germans more of a potential population base, given that they can maybe grow enough food to support themselves, assuming there's around a hundred thousand or two coming rather than millions.
If you have millions of Germans fleeing the war and migrating, I doubt that a majority will end up in Sweden. Most would likely end up somewhere in the PLC. Maybe in modern Ukraine, given how good that land is for farming. That land, assuming Russia does eventually get itself sorted out, could end up as a base for Germans in a Russian Empire, along with the Baltics. Yet all of this still isn't enough to actually Germanize Russia. I'm not sure if there is a reasonable PoD in this time period to achieve that, though you could definitely end up with a majority non-Slavic population in a Russian Empire. The closest thing I can think of to end up with a non-Russian plurality though is the above mixed with some highly destructive wars (plural intended again) occurring primarily on Russian territory, like a period of several prolonged civil wars prior to an actual Russian Empire, though that weakens Russia to the point where it may be unable to conquer the Germanized territories mentioned earlier in this post.

 

[Deleted member 92195]

Ok, you started being really arogant here. We don't disagree with you because we are jealous about your writing talents or length of your posts. We disagree with you because what you propose simply wouldn't be doable in that era and given time.

I really could not care less about the topic anymore.

The definition of arrogance: having or revealing an exaggerated sense of one's own importance or abilities.

If you are insinuating something don't insinuate it, just say it because it says that for some reason you cannot say something, which insinuates to me that you and everyone else here thinks something that I don't know about. In that case, apologies administrators, just simply screw yourself, that's cowardice.

This is what I am insinuating about what you are insinuating about me: you are laughing immaturely about my writing and the lengths of my posts.

You should not have insinuated that you are "jealous of my writing talent or the length of my posts" and I actually find the comment offensive because I could barely write at the age of 16 and now I'm 25 and I not should be judged and prejudiced about my writing talent and post lengths.

I not arrogant, in all honesty, if I appear arrogant it's because I'm really f$£king angry and sick tired of people like you who 'insinuate' things. If that appears to be arrogant to you, your way cue with your emotional representation of other human beings. NO!! I am just really f$£king angry!!

(In absolute honesty, I don't think my writing is very good. I actually don't put much faith in that I have any special talent.)

 

[Avrorrange]

So what is the cultural pull for Russians to Germanize?

 

[CalBear]

I really could not care less about the topic anymore.

The definition of arrogance: having or revealing an exaggerated sense of one's own importance or abilities.

If you are insinuating something don't insinuate it, just say it because it says that for some reason you cannot say something, which insinuates to me that you and everyone else here thinks something that I don't know about. In that case, apologies administrators, just simply screw yourself, that's cowardice.

This is what I am insinuating about what you are insinuating about me: you are laughing immaturely about my writing and the lengths of my posts.

You should not have insinuated that you are "jealous of my writing talent or the length of my posts" and I actually find the comment offensive because I could barely write at the age of 16 and now I'm 25 and I not should be judged and prejudiced about my writing talent and post lengths.

I not arrogant, in all honesty, if I appear arrogant it's because I'm really f$£king angry and sick tired of people like you who 'insinuate' things. If that appears to be arrogant to you, your way cue with your emotional representation of other human beings. NO!! I am just really f$£king angry!!

(In absolute honesty, I don't think my writing is very good. I actually don't put much faith in that I have any special talent.)

Uh...

If you post on a DISCUSSION BOARD you need to expect, well, discussion. Much of it will be critical in one way or another, hopefully constructive.

Recommend you adjust & adapt (by far the best choice, criticism, even of the less constructive variety can be very useful in improving a story). Otherwise either don't post or suffer in silence. What I DO NOT recommend is that you post this sort of response going forward.

 

[alexmilman]

I don't think that Ingria would be the German Protestants' choice of where to migrate to in Sweden. If they were to go to Sweden, they'd likely settle in a few places instead.

• Mainland Sweden, specifically in the areas around Stockholm or in the new little city of Göteborg (Gothenburg). IOTL, Göteborg was where Gustav II Adolf encouraged German Protestants to settle, so as to build up his new (and only) city on Sweden's West coast.
• Estonia. This is likely where you would want them to go if you want Germans influencing Russia in any meaningful way. The city of Narva was a major trading center in the Baltic, being the entryway into Russia for centuries. As a bonus, the ruling nobility in Estonia was also extensively German. The downside is that Estonia, while much better land than Ingria, still can't support millions of Germans.
• Livonia. Livonia is much of the same as Estonia, near Russia, major trade center in Riga, better land than most of Sweden's territories, but still cannot support millions (plural intended) of people.

Your best bet is likely to get the Germans to settle extensively in both Estonia and Livonia (though that will likely have problems where if the Germans outnumber the natives, there will be conflict over serfdom. While Sweden proper had never had serfdom, the Baltic regions did at this point. The existing nobility in the Baltics would not necessarily take kindly to this challenge to the status quo). Settling in both gives the Germans more of a potential population base, given that they can maybe grow enough food to support themselves, assuming there's around a hundred thousand or two coming rather than millions.
If you have millions of Germans fleeing the war and migrating, I doubt that a majority will end up in Sweden. Most would likely end up somewhere in the PLC. Maybe in modern Ukraine, given how good that land is for farming. That land, assuming Russia does eventually get itself sorted out, could end up as a base for Germans in a Russian Empire, along with the Baltics. Yet all of this still isn't enough to actually Germanize Russia. I'm not sure if there is a reasonable PoD in this time period to achieve that, though you could definitely end up with a majority non-Slavic population in a Russian Empire. The closest thing I can think of to end up with a non-Russian plurality though is the above mixed with some highly destructive wars (plural intended again) occurring primarily on Russian territory, like a period of several prolonged civil wars prior to an actual Russian Empire, though that weakens Russia to the point where it may be unable to conquer the Germanized territories mentioned earlier in this post.

Let’s look at a narrow aspect of a proposed scenario, namely the million(s) of Germans fleeing the HRE in the midst of the 30YW to any place in the Northern Baltics (Sweden proper, Baltic provinces, Ingria, does not really matter).

They are predominantly the farmers or artisans leaving various parts of the HRE. They have to cross a big part of the HRE territory (where the war is going on all over the countryside) and then the PLC (not the most quiet and law abiding place in Europe of that time). They have to carry with themselves their valuable possessions and livestock even just because they can’t convert them into money within specific framework of the 30YW.

1st, the obvious question is what’s a probability of them making all the to the destination? Cruelties of the 30YW are well-known so the migrants would be looted (and many of them killed) probably even before they manage to leave their own principality and definitely somewhere in the HRE and PLC. After the looting is done what are they going to eat and how they’ll keep moving? AFAIK, the cows and horses were not growing on the trees anywhere in Germany or PLC in the XVII century and the cake-growing trees also were a rarity so they will start dying from starvation well before they are reaching their destination and nobody at that time and place would be able to provide food, lodgings, agricultural implements and livestock even for a single million people, forget about the millions.

2nd, lat’s assume that somehow these migrants are getting themselves organized into the big caravans with an adequate military pritection (which is a pure ASB) how would these caravans providing themselves with the food on the road? Only by looting the countryside: there was no entity capable or willing to pay needed amounts of money and, anyway, big parts of the HRE suffered from the very serious food shortages. So they would have to fight their way across the HRE, PLC and Swedish Baltic provinces.

Of course, an idea that all these people could be shipped to Ingria does not deserve any serious consideration. Besides the obvious problem that most of these people would have to march across the war zone to reach the ports, there were no shipping capacities needed to perform the task and no money to pay for it. Not to mention that the people loaded on a mostly uninhabitable coast without the necessary supplies, livestock, etc. would be just dying from cold and starvation.

There is no even need to go into the details like shortage of a good agricultural land in the area (whatever was available for agriculture had been already in use by the locals). In OTL population of St. Petersburg reached 1.2M by 1900 but the city was supplied with the products from a big part of the European Russia thanks to the railroads, extensive canals system, etc. In the early XIX it was in the low hundred thousands, still heavily relying upon the inland resources. Most of those hardly had been easily (or at all) available during the 30YW because Tsardom is just out of the ToT and why would it start dumping a significant part f its resources on supplying a foreign (Swedish) territory? Sweden did not have a big food surplus either and from time to time had to buy grain in Russia. So what exactly these newly-arriving Germans would be eating? Each other?

Now, let’s assume that enough of them managed to reach Ingria and somehow establish a settlement. Then what? Pretty much nothing because Ingria is Swedish and Russian trade with Sweden is regulated by the existing treaties. Tsardom is already selling whatever it can (high quality leather is the main item) and the trade is going through the existing ports of Narva, Revel, Riga and Archangelsk. New port in the mouth of Neva River is not needed: Nien remained an insignificant settlement. Peter artificially boosted St. Petersburg by channeling almost all Russian trade through it but there is no reason for any Russian ruler doing the same for a foreign city. If somehow Ingria ends up as an independent state (fat chance outside ASB land) the reason is still absent and this state is an obvious target for the Swedish and Russian attacks (aka, no trade).