Castille and Aragon never unite

[Condottiero]

On the other hand there would be a major hispanic (porto-castillian) presence in India, Australia...

How would they interact with the ottomans? Maybe this time the portocastillians would ally with them against the persians for the control of Hormuz.

 

[ruisramos]

There was an agreement between Portugal, Castille and Aragon as for the distribution of lands retaken from the Moors. For instance Murcia was conquered by Aragon but as it was outside their "area of expansion" it was ceded back by the king of Aragón to the King of Castille.

The scenario you are depicting is almost ASB.

* Demographic issue: Castille had much more population than the combination of Portugal and Aragon. It could raise bigger armies and had only to worry about their terrritories in the Iberian peninsula not about possesions in Italy.
Aragón had been punished very badly by the black death, losing almost one third of their population.


* Dinastic issue: the kings of Aragon and Castille belonged to the same family: the Trastamara.


Moreover why would Portugal try to engage in a war against Castille when they could claim the crown through a marriage of the portuguese king or the heir with "la Beltraneja" or even Isabel?

There was a proposal of marrying Isabel to the King and "la Beltraneja" to the heir with the condition that the descendants of Don Manuel and "La Beltraneja" would inherit both kingdoms. That would have been the perfect solution for Portugal as it would have been accepted by the followers of both ladies.

Your notes are correct. It was just an exercise of imagination, without any historical or sociological/demographic or political basis. I could easily have gone with a TL in which the outcome would be the opposiote - Castille wins the war- and the outcome would be an Iberian Peninsula united under the flag of Castille.

My main goal was to use the three kingdoms in Iberia TL to imagine how the exploration of the High Seas and the colonization of undiscovered land would proceed in such a case.

 

[Condottiero]

It is also difficult as there was an strong tendency for unification in the Iberian peninsula by the end of the Reconquista.

The easier way would be through a different dynastic policy. Make Ferdinand marry a French princess after a bad aragonese defeat in Italy or the Cerdaña. Isabel could marry an Habsburg prince making Castille to side against France and their new aragonese allies, while Portugal continues on their own.

But that would be against the general feeling of the people and in a few years we would have again some sort of unification.


From my point of view the most interesting scenario would be the portocastillian union with expansion in Africa and the Indian Ocean, with Aragon expanding in the Mediterranean, and a much more divided America where the Incan and Aztec empires would surely survive.

 

[ruisramos]

I agree with your point of view of the Iberian reality in the Middle Ages. Neverthless here's what I had in mind with the partition of the Iberian Peninsula threeways:

- The Aragonese with the lands conquered in the Iberia Peninsula don't meddle in other European affairs and opt for the exploration of new lands, as do our TL Portuguese.
- The Portuguese and the Aragonese compete for the exploitation of the African coast until the discovery of the New World, when they sign a treaty (much like our TL "Tratado de Tordesilhas") spliting thw world between them.
- The Portuguese concentrate in the new world and the Aragonese go East (the way the Portuguese did in our TL)
- The Castillian opt for the continued conquest of muslim terrotiries and carve an empire of their own in northern Africa
- The Castillian also go for after new discovered territories, but not with the same energy and strengh that the other two competitors.

 

[The Professor]

From my point of view the most interesting scenario would be the portocastillian union with expansion in Africa and the Indian Ocean, with Aragon expanding in the Mediterranean, and a much more divided America where the Incan and Aztec empires would surely survive.

I agree.
And sooner or later the Portugal-Castille is going to try and unify with Aragon similar to how Aragon-Castille did with Portugal, especially if a HRE Charles V turns up....

 

[Iñaki]

Originally posted by Condottiero
But that would be against the general feeling of the people and in a few years we would have again some sort of unification.

I am not so sure to this, remember that in OTL the aragonese kingdom (formed by Aragon, Mallorca, Valencia and Catalonia) remained with its own institutions until the Spanish Succesion War, and that people of Aragon was very proud of their institutions and rebelled against any interference from Castilla (Catalonian Rebelion in 1640, and the fight for their rights during the war of Spanish Succesion).

So it is possible that people of Aragon prefers to remain independent in this ATL an not to join to Castilla.

 

[Condottiero]

I am not so sure to this, remember that in OTL the aragonese kingdom (formed by Aragon, Mallorca, Valencia and Catalonia) remained with its own institutions until the Spanish Succesion War, and that people of Aragon was very proud of their institutions and rebelled against any interference from Castilla (Catalonian Rebelion in 1640, and the fight for their rights during the war of Spanish Succesion).

So it is possible that people of Aragon prefers to remain independent in this ATL an not to join to Castilla.

Of course, but the feeling of the existence of a Hispania was very strong. The rebellion of 1640 took place not because of a feeling of being something different, but because the Conde-Duke of Olivares wanted to achieve a deeper union between the different crowns. While the situation in the Sucession war was quite different as they saw a threat in being ruled by a french (more centralist) than by a Habsburg (more used to dealing with different crowns under their rule). Oddly during the rule of Ferdinand and Isabel and later with Charles V the catalonian an valencian towns and people felt more identified with the idea of a united Spain in contrast with the noblemen and towns of Aragon. The former saw that this way they could counterweight the power of the aragonese nobility.

This idea of belonging to a same nation was so deep that when Ferdinand and Isabel started to name their Kingdom as Spain (for Castille-Aragon) the portuguese king was enraged for the use of a term that he thought it was also property of the portuguese people.

 

[ruisramos]

Don't forget that 1640 was also the year of the Portuguese rebellion that restaured this countries independence under the kings of the House of Bragança. So by this time the idea of unity was all bu present in the Iberian society except for the high Spanish nobility and state embodied by the kings of Spain.

 

[Condottiero]

I agree the continuous dutch attacks over portuguese posesions weakened that idea while enforcing the thesis that an independent Portugal could have a policy more apt to protect them.

But this is 150 years after...

Once I read that the union in the Iberian peninsula was made in the wrong order. The union of Portugal and Castille should have been made before in order not to have diverging expansionist policies, and some time later the union with Aragon once the aragonese had perceived that their only chance of surviving against France (their traditional enemy since the XII century) would be the Union with Porto-Castille.

 

[Iñaki]

originally posted by Condottiero
The union of Portugal and Castille should have been made before in order not to have diverging expansionist policies, and some time later the union with Aragon

Could be. I agree that possibly could be an approach or a timeline in which Aragon can join easier and deeper than in OTL.

originally posted by Condottiero
their only chance of surviving against France (their traditional enemy since the XII century) would be the Union with Porto-Castille.

Well is a bit radical point of view. I don´t say that the probabilities of a union of Aragon and Castille would not be high, but I think that there are other possible ways and timelines for Aragon that could not conduce to an union with Castille and that an union with Porto-Castille would be not the only chance against France for Aragon. For example Aragon could seek an alliance with the Hapsburg or England against France.

Also one of the influences about the union between Aragon and Castille in OTL was the fact that dinasty of Aragon was from 1412 the Trastamara a castillian noble family, so in reality Aragon was governed by castillians (Trastamara) since 1412. A possible POD that will down the probabilities of an union between Castille and Aragon would be that the Caspe Pact of 1412 that conducts to the power to the Trastamara in Aragon had be different that in OTL.

So the fact it is that although had good probabilities of an union of Castille with Aragon, I think that had too good probabilities of that at the end Aragon had decided to not join Castille.

 

[Tocomocho]

Also one of the influences about the union between Aragon and Castille in OTL was the fact that dinasty of Aragon was from 1412 the Trastamara a castillian noble family, so in reality Aragon was governed by castillians (Trastamara) since 1412. A possible POD that will down the probabilities of an union between Castille and Aragon would be that the Caspe Pact of 1412 that conducts to the power to the Trastamara in Aragon had be different that in OTL.

Well, you have another good POD at the Battle of Toro (1472) as other guy says. With a Portuguese/"Juanist" victory over the Aragonese/"Isabelist", many towns and people that IOTL sided with Isabel after the battle (like Madrid, the Duke of Alba or the Master of Calatrava) could join the "Juanist" side and ended the war with a victory for Juana, probably a couple of years earlier and without French involvement. In that case, we have a teen Castilian queen with only 13-15 years, very influenced by his old husband Afonso V of Portugal. In this universe Afonso probably didn't fall in a big clinical depression after losing the war and survive more years than in OTL, may be to see another politic marriage between the Portuguese heir Joao and one child step-sister born after the union of Juana and Afonso (girls are more probable when the father is old ). The final result is a union between Portugal and Castile in wich Lisbon is the master head. The African adventure is the main politic of the kingdom and the dinastic union with Flanders never happens (so, no non-ending Flanders war... and may be the Dutch and English still Catholic!).

OTOH, Aragon would have a very dark future. Without the Castilian proto-tercios, he probably suffers a total defeat in Italy and Naples is united with France. Moreover, the Cerdaña-Roussillon never returns to Aragon and his allies in N-W Italy (Genoa, Milan, ) are invaded by the French. Perhaps in some decades, only the Papal States (pissed of by the French boot) remains as Aragon allies in Italy. At the end of the century, the Aragonese dominions in Malta, Sicily, Sardinia and the Balearic Islands are the main target of Ottoman/Algerian galleys eek:!!!). And by the 17th-early 18th century, the kingdom remains are divided between Castile-Portugal/Spain and France, like Poland was divided between Austria, Prussia and Russia.

 

[pompejus]

The African adventure is the main politic of the kingdom and the dinastic union with Flanders never happens (so, no non-ending Flanders war... and may be the Dutch and English still Catholic!).

Will there even be Dutch? Without a unified Spain no Charles the V, so no unified Netherlands. So the Netherlands could be butterflied away and just stay part of HRE.

 

[Max Sinister]

The final result is a union between Portugal and Castile in wich Lisbon is the master head.

Only at the beginning. The Portuguese tail wouldn't wag the Castillian dog forever.

 

[htgriffin]

Will there even be Dutch? Without a unified Spain no Charles the V, so no unified Netherlands. So the Netherlands could be butterflied away and just stay part of HRE.

Doubt it, the Burgundians (really the Low Countries, as the Free County that was the nominal Metropole was already a backwater) had already developed a rather seperate identity and political status.

Still be interesting to see the Hasburgs move there....

HTG

 

[htgriffin]

Only at the beginning. The Portuguese tail wouldn't wag the Castillian dog forever.

Without the Mesoamerican gold earmarked for the Castillian crown, they've little to give but troops and bored bandits.

HTG

 

[Max Sinister]

So Castille-Portugal might look a bit like the Netherlands, where the province of Holland dominated the country that much that many people call all the Netherlands simply Holland?

 

[Soyuz]

Did France have any interest at all of financing expeditions to the New World in the 15th c.? They did seems to have some in OTL with Giovanni da Verrazano in 1524. Any chance they would do it without Spain leading the way?

Secondly, why the doubt that the Netherlands would be butterflied away? Maximilian I would obtain them either way, before the POD. Therefore the Seventeen Provinces would still be formed. And most likely without the Spanish army enforcing their rule, the Provinces can rebel and gain indepedence earlier, and may be even stay united.

 

[pompejus]

Secondly, why the doubt that the Netherlands would be butterflied away? Maximilian I would obtain them either way, before the POD. Therefore the Seventeen Provinces would still be formed. And most likely without the Spanish army enforcing their rule, the Provinces can rebel and gain indepedence earlier, and may be even stay united.

True, but it would still lack Utrecht (including overijsel and drenthe), Groningen, Frisia and Guelders (basicly the whole north east). Furthermore without Charles the V no Pragmatic Sanction of 1549, unifiying the netherlands and placing it apart from the HRE and France. Without that it could have just stayed part of the HRE, or at least it would become very different than the Current Netherlands and Belgium