Castille and Aragon never unite

[Soyuz]

Yes, I did a timeline where that was fact, and I'm playin ME with that for one of my nation's backgrounds, so...

Now I need your opinion on WHAT IF?

Something just prevents it. Say something very simple, like Isabella or Ferdinand being born the wrong gender. Or if that doesn't help and they find another way, maybe they also get repulsed by the idea of uniting so never do.

How does this affect politics on the Iberian peninsula?
Does Granada survive?
Can Castile fund Columbus alone?
How does this affect the discovery of the new world and the Spanish Empire that will now never be?
What do the Portugese do?
Does Aragon continue persuing the strategy of West Mediterranean domination?

 

[Condottiero]

Yes, I did a timeline where that was fact, and I'm playin ME with that for one of my nation's backgrounds, so...

Now I need your opinion on WHAT IF?

Something just prevents it. Say something very simple, like Isabella or Ferdinand being born the wrong gender. Or if that doesn't help and they find another way, maybe they also get repulsed by the idea of uniting so never do.

How does this affect politics on the Iberian peninsula?
Does Granada survive?
Can Castile fund Columbus alone?
How does this affect the discovery of the new world and the Spanish Empire that will now never be?
What do the Portugese do?
Does Aragon continue persuing the strategy of West Mediterranean domination?

You have a great oportunity in the fights between Isabel of Castille and Juana "la beltraneja", sister and daughter (or not) of Enrique IV. The Portuguese crown saw an oportunity of meddling in Castille's politics. The portuguese king supported first Juana, then he proposed that he would marry Isabel and his heir Juana merging both crowns. Suppose this proposal is accepted. How could it have affected?
* Iberian peninsula. Castille and Portugal merge annexing Granada. Aragon enters the civil war in Navarre annexing it.
* Granada would not survive either. If they had survived from the XIII it was because it was easier for the castillian kings to send tax collectors than armies. With the ottoman threat in the mediterranean they could not risk having an open door.
* America. Columbus would not have been supported by Castille who would have had a common policiy with Portugal of expansion in Africa and to India. Aragon would have been busy in Italy and North Africa. However it was a matter of time that portuguese navigators had found America. Maybe Columbus would have worked for the portuguese crown after all...

 

[Max Sinister]

Didn't some British fishermen fishing on the banks of Newfoundland discover N America only a few years after Columbus? Don't know whether Britain is ready for big colonies in the new world at that time, though...

I also wonder whether France might try to take advantage and annex Aragon. Although Italy still seems more important...

 

[Condottiero]

Didn't some British fishermen fishing on the banks of Newfoundland discover N America only a few years after Columbus? Don't know whether Britain is ready for big colonies in the new world at that time, though...

Probably english, french and basque fishermen were operating in those waters several years before. One thing is capturing some cod and another is building major settlements.

I also wonder whether France might try to take advantage and annex Aragon. Although Italy still seems more important...

The french annexation of Aragon is an interesting question, but it would find the opposition of Portugal-Castille (I suppose that combo would be Spain in TTL) and England (traditional ally of Portugal). The French king would probably go for Italy but participation in an Iberian conflict would make an interesting scenario.

 

[corourke]

Is there any way we can make a disunited Iberia an interest of the other great powers? I realize this is a little early for true great power politics, but I'm thinking France or some other power could prop up Grenada as a way of preventing Portugal, Castille, or Aragon from gaining too much power.

 

[Condottiero]

Is there any way we can make a disunited Iberia an interest of the other great powers? I realize this is a little early for true great power politics, but I'm thinking France or some other power could prop up Grenada as a way of preventing Portugal, Castille, or Aragon from gaining too much power.

Not with Granada, they were already dead from the XIV century. But in the context of the Hundred Years war you could have Castille and Navarre siding with France (which in fact they did) and Portugal and Aragon to side with England (Portugal did)...

 

[Justin Pickard]

Bumping this thread.

 

[Andrei]

It seems that the Portuguese expedition led by Pinning and Cortereal reached Newfoundland in 1476.

Castille might have financed expeditions to the New World on it's own , after all , Isabella liked Columbus , and , in OTL , the Spanish colonies belonged to Castille.

I don't think Aragon could have driven the French out of Italy on it's own , so we might have a French kingdom more concentrated on Italy than in OTL.

 

[robertp6165]

Didn't some British fishermen fishing on the banks of Newfoundland discover N America only a few years after Columbus? Don't know whether Britain is ready for big colonies in the new world at that time, though...

I also wonder whether France might try to take advantage and annex Aragon. Although Italy still seems more important...

John Cabot's expedition, sailing on behalf of King Henry VII of England, discovered Newfoundland in 1497, IIRC. But nothing ever came of the discovery.

 

[htgriffin]

Yes, I did a timeline where that was fact, and I'm playin ME with that for one of my nation's backgrounds, so...

Now I need your opinion on WHAT IF?

Something just prevents it. Say something very simple, like Isabella or Ferdinand being born the wrong gender. Or if that doesn't help and they find another way, maybe they also get repulsed by the idea of uniting so never do.

How does this affect politics on the Iberian peninsula?

A fair bit of rivalry, although the waste of blood may be counterbalanced by the Castillians running the place into the ground.

IOW, we would have two major martime powers (and one minor one if Granada got it's act together) hemming in a poor one with a potentially dangerous army. The details require information on say... Hasburg/Burgundian or other marriage plans.

Does Granada survive?

Depends on Castille's mood/needs for the most part (yes, the Strategic Situation of Granada was That Bad, and the Ottomans cannot reach that far).

OTOH, without Aragon's navy and with two long hostile borders gathering enough regulars for a final Crush would be rather harder.

Can Castile fund Columbus alone?

Probably not... I am not all that certain they would want to try without Aragonese influence.

If Aragon gains control of the straits (or are on decent terms with Granada) they might try this fool's gamble to undercut the Portugese route to the Spice Trade.

How does this affect the discovery of the new world and the Spanish Empire that will now never be?

Big ripple effects. No cash or prestige means that Castille continues raiding and perhaps conquering southward mre than anything... or at least trying

Portugal almost certainly trips over Brazil and various fishers make landfall of Newfoundland within a decade... the question is how long it takes for this to become more than an incidental Place of Banishment and if the big MesoAmerican lands recover from the plagues before the Euros find them.

What do the Portugese do?

See Above. Keep concentrating on trading forts due to the lack of manpower (unless they marry into Castille's). May start up plantations on Brazil as overflow from the MidAtlantic ones.

Does Aragon continue persuing the strategy of West Mediterranean domination?

Almost certainly. Being less pathologically dogmatic than Castille would help here if they hit the Mahgreb.

Hmm... if Granada lasts long enough could they decide these new lands to the west are big enough to be a refuge and hit the Rio de la Plata ahead of Portugal?

HTG

 

[Rick Robinson]

Lots of interesting stuff here; I'll just hit on a couple of points.

As said upthread, Granada was a dead man walking, doomed as soon as the Ottomans became worrisome. I don't think it had either the population or the cultural outlook to undertake activities in the New World.

Columbus. The Portuguese turned him down for a good reason: his estimate of the size of the Earth was way low, so he grossly underestimate the distance west to the Spice Islands. What he was, was a tremendous promoter, and got the Spanish effort in the New World off to a much faster start than might have been the case otherwise.

America was gonna get discovered pretty soon anyway, but as htgriffin suggests just above, it may take quite a bit longer for the discovery to hit the big time. Newfoundland wasn't gonna do it. Brazil might, but the Portuguese might not consider it a top priority - even if united with Castile, the East Indies are still plenty for their plate.


And it is a really interesting question what happens if direct European contact with the Mesoamerican civilizations - and all their gold - is delayed until they have recovered from the plagues. But that may be unlikely.

IIRC, the demographic catastrophe took about a century before recovery really began. So, suppose that limited European contact with the New World causes the plague to reach Mexico in the later 16th century - you would need to delay Europeans from reaching Mexico themselves until well into the 17th century for the Aztecs, or their successors, to have much chance to recover. For that matter, the demographic catastrophe might do in the Mesoamerican civilizations, plunging Mexico into a "dark age" by the time Europeans get there.

-- Rick

 

[Condottiero]

A fair bit of rivalry, although the waste of blood may be counterbalanced by the Castillians running the place into the ground.

IOW, we would have two major martime powers (and one minor one if Granada got it's act together) hemming in a poor one with a potentially dangerous army. The details require information on say... Hasburg/Burgundian or other marriage plans.Depends on Castille's mood/needs for the most part (yes, the Strategic Situation of Granada was That Bad, and the Ottomans cannot reach that far).

OTOH, without Aragon's navy and with two long hostile borders gathering enough regulars for a final Crush would be rather harder.Probably not... I am not all that certain they would want to try without Aragonese influence.

They did not need the Aragonese navy really, Castille was a naval power on their own and after the Black Death crisis they had probably a navy more powerful than the aragonese.

They were really in very bad shape and they would have been annexed by Castille or by France sooner or later. The most probable would have been by Castille as the feeling of the Visigothic Hispania was very strong in all the peninsula.

If Aragon gains control of the straits (or are on decent terms with Granada) they might try this fool's gamble to undercut the Portugese route to the Spice Trade.Big ripple effects. No cash or prestige means that Castille continues raiding and perhaps conquering southward mre than anything... or at least trying .

They would never be on good terms with them and it is no probable that they would ever be. The muslim lands were divided in the XIII century and Granada was clearly in Castillian area. Murcia was taken by Aragon and ceded back to Castille as it was on castillian side.

Portugal almost certainly trips over Brazil and various fishers make landfall of Newfoundland within a decade... the question is how long it takes for this to become more than an incidental Place of Banishment and if the big MesoAmerican lands recover from the plagues before the Euros find them.See Above. Keep concentrating on trading forts due to the lack of manpower (unless they marry into Castille's). May start up plantations on Brazil as overflow from the MidAtlantic ones.Almost certainly. Being less pathologically dogmatic than Castille would help here if they hit the Mahgreb.

Hmm... if Granada lasts long enough could they decide these new lands to the west are big enough to be a refuge and hit the Rio de la Plata ahead of Portugal?

HTG

The last one is a funny quote. They were muslims, fiercely attatched to the earth of their ancestors...


As I said before, the most plausible possibility for not having the Castille-Aragon union would have been a Portugal-Castille union either with a royal portuguese marriage with Juana "la beltraneja" or with Isabel de Trastámara.

 

[Soyuz]

Thank you for your comments.

Personally, I though Granada would fall either way, just somewhat slower in this situation. There's some sort of agreement that both nations would have fallen or have to join or be conquered by another power - Aragon with France and Castile with Portugal. Does Aragon really face such difficulties? They seem to have survived well and even had their rulers in Italy. Why fills the Spanish void in South-Central America? Since it seems the Portugese won't be interested, will it be the French? And then we will see a France-dominated Europe 200 years earler than Napy akin to the Habsburg domination in OTL. France either way would get a huge boost by this with the loss of a major competitor.

 

[Rick Robinson]

Why fills the Spanish void in South-Central America? Since it seems the Portugese won't be interested, will it be the French? And then we will see a France-dominated Europe 200 years earler than Napy akin to the Habsburg domination in OTL. France either way would get a huge boost by this with the loss of a major competitor.

Though if Castile unites with Portugal (I see Juana la Beltraneja most likely to produce that; after all, Isabel opted for Aragon), you still get an equally formidable Spain, just a different one. For that matter, Castile alone is not chopped liver if they get their act together, and not getting all that silver may allow its economy to escape the distortions that wrecked it in OTL.

(And, Castile/Spain would likely do all it could to keep the French out of Aragon.)

For that matter, if France hits the silver jackpot, it might flame out the same way Spain did in OTL. France is an inherently richer country, so the damage wouldn't be as bad, but turning into a silver junkie is still going to do far more damage than even running out the Huguenots did.

-- Rick

 

[Wendell]

Though if Castile unites with Portugal (I see Juana la Beltraneja most likely to produce that; after all, Isabel opted for Aragon), you still get an equally formidable Spain, just a different one. For that matter, Castile alone is not chopped liver if they get their act together, and not getting all that silver may allow its economy to escape the distortions that wrecked it in OTL.

(And, Castile/Spain would likely do all it could to keep the French out of Aragon.)

For that matter, if France hits the silver jackpot, it might flame out the same way Spain did in OTL. France is an inherently richer country, so the damage wouldn't be as bad, but turning into a silver junkie is still going to do far more damage than even running out the Huguenots did.

-- Rick

A worthwhile scenario could still result, however.

 

[Othniel]

Though if Castile unites with Portugal (I see Juana la Beltraneja most likely to produce that; after all, Isabel opted for Aragon), you still get an equally formidable Spain, just a different one. For that matter, Castile alone is not chopped liver if they get their act together, and not getting all that silver may allow its economy to escape the distortions that wrecked it in OTL.

Just Equal? If things go as OTL we have a bigger Portugal overseas. Think if Portugal had all the man power it needed to enforce any claims....to me Aragon ends up competeing with France on the Med, while Castile dominates the Alantic. A dangerous bargin....

 

[Rick Robinson]

Just Equal? If things go as OTL we have a bigger Portugal overseas. Think if Portugal had all the man power it needed to enforce any claims....to me Aragon ends up competeing with France on the Med, while Castile dominates the Alantic. A dangerous bargin....

Equal in underlying resources, especially demographic. I certainly grant that the Castile-Portugal combination goes in a different direction than Castile-Aragon.

Quite literally a different direction! Columbus remains a crank self-promoter; America is only discovered sometime after 1500, and remains somewhat on the back burner through much of the 16th century. Meanwhile, the whole expansive energy of Spain (i.e., Castile-Portugal) goes into the East. With Castilian manpower, the East Indies are locked down far more firmly than Portugal could achieve; the Dutch can forget about it.

India could get interesting, because Spain may be turning a covetous eye that way just as Babur shows up. Moghuls v conquistadors - there's a cage match for you!

Meanwhile, back in Europe, what happens when the French start throwing their weight around in Italy? I don't write off Aragon by any means, but it has nothing like the resources that OTL Spain did. Can Ferdinand promote himself as the champion of Italy in the struggle against France?

This TL has great potential, but I don't have the knowledge base to pursue it in detail. Assuming the POD is Juana la Beltraneja winning over Isabel, when and how does it happen, and does she continue to have problems due to her shaky legitimacy? Who does Ferdinand marry, and with what implications? How does Spanish Catholicism develop, and with what implications when Luther comes along. Or is he butterflied, due to different papal election politics from c. 1490 on?

-- Rick

 

[Condottiero]

Fernando of Aragon would have to look for an state marriage that could allow Aragon to face France and save their rights in Italy. Probably a Habsburg princess, or perhaps an Italian one to consolidate his rights there... One thing would be sure he would be seen by most of the Italian states as their only opprotunity of avoiding french domination.

What about Navarre? Without castillian support I do not think he would defy the french there, but on the other hand if he does not take it, it is an open door for the french army.

 

[Othniel]

Fernando of Aragon would have to look for an state marriage that could allow Aragon to face France and save their rights in Italy. Probably a Habsburg princess, or perhaps an Italian one to consolidate his rights there... One thing would be sure he would be seen by most of the Italian states as their only opprotunity of avoiding french domination.

What about Navarre? Without castillian support I do not think he would defy the french there, but on the other hand if he does not take it, it is an open door for the french army.

Aragon could rejoin to the Navarre line....just a thought....

 

[Max Sinister]

I also wonder about an "encircling Castille" strategy would work - i.e. a unification of Portugal, Aragon, Navarre and maybe Granada.