That's very unfortunate. It was very interesting timeline and very well written.
Case Yellow launched early:
- Thread starter Titus_Pullo
- Start date
Sorry no - Of course it didn’t help that after the January defeat, Stalin decided to get stingy with the German supply of raw maeterials, especially rubber, oil and steel. Now the Germans have begun feeling the pinch of these shortages. As Germany is now in a much weaker position, not just militariliy, but diplomatically than it was just over a year ago, the Soviets have begun pushing for more concessions from the Germans, in particular finished products which the Germans are just hardpressed to give them. Even worse Moscow has begun pressuring Berlin on the renogotiating of their non-Agression pact by asking for a ‘readjustment’ of their occupation zones in Poland. - so its still open for interpretation and leaves a window for the Finns to get the Italian arms moved in; but theres little time.
Major problem is of course that Finland only have so many men and may run out of it before the ice in the Bay of Finland breaks and makes Soviet attacks on it circumventing the Finn defences.
Though still events in other parts of Scandinavia may change.
Titus_Pullo
Banned
Anyway to those who might be interested continuing this, some background and an update on what is going on after the German defeats in the West:
The western front is stabilized along Belgium
Stalin continues nagging the Germans for more favorable concessions with their Polish partition treaty.
In China the communists are getting stronger in resisting the Japanese.
To continue the war, and fight a long war at that, Germany is in desperate need of raw materials, and raw material shipments to Germany has shrunk to to well under 10% , which is below the German/Soviet economic treaty.
Stalin is smelling weakness now as German power fades.
As stated German operations in Norway and Denmark will be more limited than in otl and since the Germans are fast running out of time, they still haven't given up hope in knocking France out of the war. But ittl the Wehrmacht is less mobile than it was in OTL, fielding only 60% of the number of Panzers that they did in OTL. The longer the war drags France gets stronger, while the Germans grow weaker. As a result any renewed German offensives in France will be considerably weaker that in January 1940 ittl.
In otl when the German offensive began, the French airforce was caught completely offguard, being in the midst of an equipment overhaul, so the French airpower was virtually negligible. Ittl the allied victories have given the French ample time to revamp their airforce. Hence the French are able to deploy larger numbers of their fighter wings into the air. ITTL French fighters are a ubiquitous sight in the skies over the western front and in Norway. The French have also begun phasing out the less maneuverable Morane-Saulner 406s, for the more maneuverable Dewoitine 520s. In this TTL the Royal Air Force is also considerably much stronger, throwing in more Spitfires and Hurricanes into battle.
By 1941 the French have attained air superiority over the Western Front, Norway and Denmark. The Dewoitine D.520, gradually replaced the slower less maneuverable Morane-Saulner 406.
Background to the Sovier War:
In this TL Stalin started to press Hitler not long after the defeats in January 1940 and begins pushing for a renegotiation of their joint occupation of Poland.
Stalin is growing bolder in pressing the Germans and intentionally getting stingier over the shipment of oil and raw materials and needless to say tensions are high, its only a matter of time until Hitler invades the Soviet occupied area of Poland. Maybe around early summer 1941. Although the Germans have synthetic fuel, there's not enough to sustain the German war effort on a long term basis, especially when allied bombers begin raiding into Germany not to mention severe coal shortages. Even though Romania is selling oil to the Germans, the Romanians are hiking up the price. The Germans ittl are pretty much running on Romanian oil now, which the Germans are trading for polish military hardware. When that runs out, Romania is under threat of an invasion and mincing no words, Romania has threatened to destroy their oil fields if the Germans invade.
Hence invading Romanian to secure those oil fields is not even an option.
A trickle of oil from Romania does still continue to flow, but in exchange for more sophisticated military hardware like the Czech build 38T tanks and German ME 109 fighters, which adds further strains on Germany’s own war effort.
The Romanians in turn are selling spare parts of these military equipment to the French, who in turn are using them for their own captured 38T’s which comprise a good number of their light armored divisions.
Another failed German push into France will be the straw that breaks the camel's back for the Army also around 1941 before the soviet war begins. Army officers will try to kill Hitler.
Unable to push into France through Belgium, Hitler decides for a more direct push, through the Maginot Line. Naturally and with good reason the Army is reluctant to take on this formidable fortification. Hitler being his old self, argues with and berates his field commanders and is adamant in pushing for an offensive through Alsace-Lorraine. Hitler's grip on reality is unravelling faster than in otl.
For the Army the prospect of an idiotic not to mention suicidal attack on Alasce-Lorraine is intollerable. Shortly before the soviet war begins a group of army officers attempt a coup-d’etat. This coup will fail as in otl but will come closer in killing Hitler by paralyzing him from the waste down.
The failed coup will result in a soviet style purge of the German army in which several hundred officers will be rounded up and executed, while a few hundred will be sent to the concentration camps with their families. However, around 200 Heer officers managed to escape by sucessfully defecting to the French lines along with key abwehr officers with valuable intelligence which compromises months if not years of German war plans; A few escaping to Switzerland.
The subsequent Nazi purge of the army will naturally result in a brain drain for the Wehrmacht as this means officers will be appointed more on loyalty to the regime rather than competence. The traditional Prussian General staff will be hard hit by the Nazi purge ittl, particularly those with aristocratic backgrounds because ittl a number of the Army officers implicated come from old Prussian aristocratic stock which hitler iotl distrusted. The long series of frustration with the war effort, his loss of grip on reality and the failed attempt on his life finally drives him over the edge in purging Germany of aristocrats and Catholics. In this respect, the purge of 1941 is worst than the Night of the Long Knives of '34.
With the purge complete and a reshuffling of German army leadership, Hitler gers his wish and the Germans launch an attack through alsace-lorraine. As expected the Germans bash their brains out at the Maginot with atrociously high casualties producing only marginal victories at best.
After a failed German coup that resulted in a thorough Nazi purge of the Wehrmacht, the German
attack on the Maginot line commenced in the summer of 1941 resulting in extremely high German
losses. The attack was deviced by Hitler after a series of failed offensives through Belgium. Here Nazi
troops attack a section of the French fortification. Entire German platoons, companies, and regiments
were wiped out in the attack which produced only marginal victories. The Germans were later forced
to withdraw.
Also in the summer of 41 the French achieve air superiority; the luftwaffe is simply unable to get enough planes into the sky, hampered by lack of fuel and the crumbling German economy.
Hitler is now confined to a wheel chair but still holding out hope of winning the war, and he believes he can do it by invading Poland. Poland afterall contains a reasonable amount of oil fields enough to buy the Germans time and supply the German army which is now running dry.
Although this is true, there's just one problem. those oil fields are within Soviet-occupied Poland and taking those oil fields means adding Stalin to Germany's ever growing list of powerful enemies. Hitler on the other hand is convinced Stalin will attack him soon anyway, and so decides to preempt him.
Maybe around September or October Hitler hurls what is left of Germany's mechanized forces in an all or nothing gamble with s surprise attack on the Soviets in the southern half of the Polish front.
The stunningly rapid German offensive catches the Soviets completely by surprise, even more so than the Barbarossa operation of otl. The sucess of the German operation in Poland ittl has to do with the fact that unlike the western allies, the Soviets have continued to scatter their tanks among the infantry, learning the wrong lessons from the German defeats in France earlier in the year.
Veteran Panzer divisions from the western front encircle a huge number of Soviet Troops.
The collapse of the Soviet forces in Poland was so quick they didnt even have enough time to destroy the oilfields and they fall to the Germans completely intact.
The German offensive in Poland in 1941 caught the Russians completely off guard
The Germans were able to demonstrate the full capability of combined arms operations
against the Russians, who still scattered their tanks widely among the infantry. The result
was a quick Soviet collapse in Poland.
The soviets are still reeling from the German offensive, when the Soviets hastily regroup for a counter-offensive in the hopes of rescuing their trapped armies.
The Russian counter attack will come from northern Poland through Lithuania and into East Prussia.
The shocking success of the German offensive in Poland jolts the Romanians into being more forthcoming with oil. Hence fresh Romanian oil reinvigorates German panzer divisions enabling them to inflict heavy casualties on the Soviets.
At the same time however, the Soviet counter attack also inflicts losses on the Germans who could ill-afford to replace their valuable panzers. In any case the Soviet offensive is halted.
Stalin, absolutely livid at having been betrayed, demands an alliance with France and Britain. Stalin, summons the French ambassador in Moscow and demands the French launch a major offensive into Germany.
Even though the French and British politely meet the Soviet ambassador in Paris, there are those in the french and British government who would rather watch Russia and Germany destroy each other, while others who view the Soviets as the greater threat to Europe, would rather the Germans win the Soviet War. French communists on the other hand urge the French government to rally behind the Russians....
The western front is stabilized along Belgium
Stalin continues nagging the Germans for more favorable concessions with their Polish partition treaty.
In China the communists are getting stronger in resisting the Japanese.
To continue the war, and fight a long war at that, Germany is in desperate need of raw materials, and raw material shipments to Germany has shrunk to to well under 10% , which is below the German/Soviet economic treaty.
Stalin is smelling weakness now as German power fades.
As stated German operations in Norway and Denmark will be more limited than in otl and since the Germans are fast running out of time, they still haven't given up hope in knocking France out of the war. But ittl the Wehrmacht is less mobile than it was in OTL, fielding only 60% of the number of Panzers that they did in OTL. The longer the war drags France gets stronger, while the Germans grow weaker. As a result any renewed German offensives in France will be considerably weaker that in January 1940 ittl.
In otl when the German offensive began, the French airforce was caught completely offguard, being in the midst of an equipment overhaul, so the French airpower was virtually negligible. Ittl the allied victories have given the French ample time to revamp their airforce. Hence the French are able to deploy larger numbers of their fighter wings into the air. ITTL French fighters are a ubiquitous sight in the skies over the western front and in Norway. The French have also begun phasing out the less maneuverable Morane-Saulner 406s, for the more maneuverable Dewoitine 520s. In this TTL the Royal Air Force is also considerably much stronger, throwing in more Spitfires and Hurricanes into battle.
By 1941 the French have attained air superiority over the Western Front, Norway and Denmark. The Dewoitine D.520, gradually replaced the slower less maneuverable Morane-Saulner 406.
Background to the Sovier War:
In this TL Stalin started to press Hitler not long after the defeats in January 1940 and begins pushing for a renegotiation of their joint occupation of Poland.
Stalin is growing bolder in pressing the Germans and intentionally getting stingier over the shipment of oil and raw materials and needless to say tensions are high, its only a matter of time until Hitler invades the Soviet occupied area of Poland. Maybe around early summer 1941. Although the Germans have synthetic fuel, there's not enough to sustain the German war effort on a long term basis, especially when allied bombers begin raiding into Germany not to mention severe coal shortages. Even though Romania is selling oil to the Germans, the Romanians are hiking up the price. The Germans ittl are pretty much running on Romanian oil now, which the Germans are trading for polish military hardware. When that runs out, Romania is under threat of an invasion and mincing no words, Romania has threatened to destroy their oil fields if the Germans invade.
Hence invading Romanian to secure those oil fields is not even an option.
A trickle of oil from Romania does still continue to flow, but in exchange for more sophisticated military hardware like the Czech build 38T tanks and German ME 109 fighters, which adds further strains on Germany’s own war effort.
The Romanians in turn are selling spare parts of these military equipment to the French, who in turn are using them for their own captured 38T’s which comprise a good number of their light armored divisions.
Another failed German push into France will be the straw that breaks the camel's back for the Army also around 1941 before the soviet war begins. Army officers will try to kill Hitler.
Unable to push into France through Belgium, Hitler decides for a more direct push, through the Maginot Line. Naturally and with good reason the Army is reluctant to take on this formidable fortification. Hitler being his old self, argues with and berates his field commanders and is adamant in pushing for an offensive through Alsace-Lorraine. Hitler's grip on reality is unravelling faster than in otl.
For the Army the prospect of an idiotic not to mention suicidal attack on Alasce-Lorraine is intollerable. Shortly before the soviet war begins a group of army officers attempt a coup-d’etat. This coup will fail as in otl but will come closer in killing Hitler by paralyzing him from the waste down.
The failed coup will result in a soviet style purge of the German army in which several hundred officers will be rounded up and executed, while a few hundred will be sent to the concentration camps with their families. However, around 200 Heer officers managed to escape by sucessfully defecting to the French lines along with key abwehr officers with valuable intelligence which compromises months if not years of German war plans; A few escaping to Switzerland.
The subsequent Nazi purge of the army will naturally result in a brain drain for the Wehrmacht as this means officers will be appointed more on loyalty to the regime rather than competence. The traditional Prussian General staff will be hard hit by the Nazi purge ittl, particularly those with aristocratic backgrounds because ittl a number of the Army officers implicated come from old Prussian aristocratic stock which hitler iotl distrusted. The long series of frustration with the war effort, his loss of grip on reality and the failed attempt on his life finally drives him over the edge in purging Germany of aristocrats and Catholics. In this respect, the purge of 1941 is worst than the Night of the Long Knives of '34.
With the purge complete and a reshuffling of German army leadership, Hitler gers his wish and the Germans launch an attack through alsace-lorraine. As expected the Germans bash their brains out at the Maginot with atrociously high casualties producing only marginal victories at best.
After a failed German coup that resulted in a thorough Nazi purge of the Wehrmacht, the German
attack on the Maginot line commenced in the summer of 1941 resulting in extremely high German
losses. The attack was deviced by Hitler after a series of failed offensives through Belgium. Here Nazi
troops attack a section of the French fortification. Entire German platoons, companies, and regiments
were wiped out in the attack which produced only marginal victories. The Germans were later forced
to withdraw.
Also in the summer of 41 the French achieve air superiority; the luftwaffe is simply unable to get enough planes into the sky, hampered by lack of fuel and the crumbling German economy.
Hitler is now confined to a wheel chair but still holding out hope of winning the war, and he believes he can do it by invading Poland. Poland afterall contains a reasonable amount of oil fields enough to buy the Germans time and supply the German army which is now running dry.
Although this is true, there's just one problem. those oil fields are within Soviet-occupied Poland and taking those oil fields means adding Stalin to Germany's ever growing list of powerful enemies. Hitler on the other hand is convinced Stalin will attack him soon anyway, and so decides to preempt him.
Maybe around September or October Hitler hurls what is left of Germany's mechanized forces in an all or nothing gamble with s surprise attack on the Soviets in the southern half of the Polish front.
The stunningly rapid German offensive catches the Soviets completely by surprise, even more so than the Barbarossa operation of otl. The sucess of the German operation in Poland ittl has to do with the fact that unlike the western allies, the Soviets have continued to scatter their tanks among the infantry, learning the wrong lessons from the German defeats in France earlier in the year.
Veteran Panzer divisions from the western front encircle a huge number of Soviet Troops.
The collapse of the Soviet forces in Poland was so quick they didnt even have enough time to destroy the oilfields and they fall to the Germans completely intact.
The German offensive in Poland in 1941 caught the Russians completely off guard
The Germans were able to demonstrate the full capability of combined arms operations
against the Russians, who still scattered their tanks widely among the infantry. The result
was a quick Soviet collapse in Poland.
The soviets are still reeling from the German offensive, when the Soviets hastily regroup for a counter-offensive in the hopes of rescuing their trapped armies.
The Russian counter attack will come from northern Poland through Lithuania and into East Prussia.
The shocking success of the German offensive in Poland jolts the Romanians into being more forthcoming with oil. Hence fresh Romanian oil reinvigorates German panzer divisions enabling them to inflict heavy casualties on the Soviets.
At the same time however, the Soviet counter attack also inflicts losses on the Germans who could ill-afford to replace their valuable panzers. In any case the Soviet offensive is halted.
Stalin, absolutely livid at having been betrayed, demands an alliance with France and Britain. Stalin, summons the French ambassador in Moscow and demands the French launch a major offensive into Germany.
Even though the French and British politely meet the Soviet ambassador in Paris, there are those in the french and British government who would rather watch Russia and Germany destroy each other, while others who view the Soviets as the greater threat to Europe, would rather the Germans win the Soviet War. French communists on the other hand urge the French government to rally behind the Russians....
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It is fair to say that Mussolini is not interested in entering the war on the german side. Could he join the allies to get bit of Austria? As for an alliance with the Soviet I don't think the allies would go for it afterall they were helping the german and it look like thy can defeat germany on their own.
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Titus_Pullo
Banned
The following update will hopefully answer some of the questions regarding the Soviets in Finland:
Part V: The Twilight of the Gods
For Stalin to recieve French and British aid, the Soviet Union had to meet a few conditions which he is reluctant to meet. First the Soviet Union had to release Polish POWs being held in the Soviet Union. Second, The Soviets had to give up areas of Finland that had been captured by the Russians during the Winter War. The allied conditions are unanswered that is until November, when German Panzers succeed in cutting off a huge portion of Soviet forces in northern Poland leaving Leningrad vulnerable. And by late November, the remaining Soviet pockets of resistance surrender.
The Soviet disaster in Northern Poland enable the Germans to press their attack on Russian holdouts in central Poland. Desperate for aid, Stalin grudgingly relents to the allied conditions. He releases 45,000 of the 300,000 Polish POWs. The 45,000 prisoners are released at the Romanian border.
With the Soviets pushed out of Poland, the Germans now occupy all of Poland, and with it a piece of the Ukraine as well and the Germans are now within striking distance off Leningrad. Although the Polish campaignn was a smashing success for the Germans, its high fuel consumption have yet again bogged down the German juggernaut. Simply put the German blitzkrieg literally runs out of steam. All throughout the winter of 1941 the Germans jave lost trucks and tanks and what planes they could put in the sky at a rate faster than they could be replaced. Hence unlike in OTL the Germans simply no longer possess the capability to sustain a long-term campaign. The Germans spend the winter in Poland, tantalizingly close to Leningrad, but unable to strike for lack of fuel.
Relative to German losses the Soviet casualties are high, having lost 700,000 men, with close to 900,000 captured. the difference though is the Soviets can replace them, the Germans on the other hand cannot. German losses on the Eastern Front stands at 300,000. With the focus of the war now shifting to the East, the Western Front have remained quiet reminiscent of the so-called "phony war" that characterized the months following the German invasion of Poland in 1939. This allows the French to begin outproducing the Germans in tank and plane production by a wide margin and combined with British tanks and troops puring into France, allied forces in the west have have become overwhelmingly one-sided.
In France, the growing pressure on the government to launch a major offensive has been steadily mounting since the start of the Soviet War, particularly from French communists. On an interesting note, the quality of military hardware produced in French factories with significant numbers of communists are better than in factories where communist influence is weak.
This sudden turn around and new found patriotism by French communists doesn't impress the government or the vast majority of the French public. The majority of the French people regard the Communist party in France with suspicion, accusing them of putting the interrests of the Soviet Union ahead of French national interest. Suspicion against communists reached an all time high, that it forces the Communist Party to lay low.
The Allies however have launched a major offensive in Norway, by early Spring of 1942, and to a lesser extent minor offensives are also launched in Holland and the southern Ardennes. Allied tactics have grown more sophisticated over the last two years due to hard lessons learned from the January and June offensives of 1940. Allied armored divisions and planes have made the allied offensive in Norway and Holland very mobile encountering weaker German resistance. The frontlines are largely fluid and concentrated French heavy armored divisions of B1bis prove very useful when brute force was needed to take an objective. Simply put they roll over German defenses in Norway with relative ease.
The main allied offensive was centered in Norway. Ittl the allied campaign in Norway was similar to the allied campaign in North Africa of otl. Ittl Norway replaces North Africa in playing an important but secondary role to the larger war unfolding in the East. Norway serves as a training ground for allied troops in reacting to German defenses and tactics as well as a proving ground for allied tanks all throughout the summer of 1942, The Germans are really unable to do much in Norway due to the more pressing German concerns in the East. The French and British have another major advantage the Germans didn't have, the allies are in friendly territory. French and British pilots shot down over German lines in Norway are aided by Norwegians who eagerly hide them from one safe house to another until they reach allied lines. Information collected by the Norwegian resistance on German troop movements prove very valuable for the French and British.
With winter fast approaching the Germans have become compressed ever tighter in southern Norway. With the French in clear command of the air and the British navy dominant at sea, re-supplying the Germans in Norway has become more difficult. French fighters continually harass German transport planes, and German convoys are preyed upon by the Royal Navy....
Part V: The Twilight of the Gods
For Stalin to recieve French and British aid, the Soviet Union had to meet a few conditions which he is reluctant to meet. First the Soviet Union had to release Polish POWs being held in the Soviet Union. Second, The Soviets had to give up areas of Finland that had been captured by the Russians during the Winter War. The allied conditions are unanswered that is until November, when German Panzers succeed in cutting off a huge portion of Soviet forces in northern Poland leaving Leningrad vulnerable. And by late November, the remaining Soviet pockets of resistance surrender.
The Soviet disaster in Northern Poland enable the Germans to press their attack on Russian holdouts in central Poland. Desperate for aid, Stalin grudgingly relents to the allied conditions. He releases 45,000 of the 300,000 Polish POWs. The 45,000 prisoners are released at the Romanian border.
With the Soviets pushed out of Poland, the Germans now occupy all of Poland, and with it a piece of the Ukraine as well and the Germans are now within striking distance off Leningrad. Although the Polish campaignn was a smashing success for the Germans, its high fuel consumption have yet again bogged down the German juggernaut. Simply put the German blitzkrieg literally runs out of steam. All throughout the winter of 1941 the Germans jave lost trucks and tanks and what planes they could put in the sky at a rate faster than they could be replaced. Hence unlike in OTL the Germans simply no longer possess the capability to sustain a long-term campaign. The Germans spend the winter in Poland, tantalizingly close to Leningrad, but unable to strike for lack of fuel.
Relative to German losses the Soviet casualties are high, having lost 700,000 men, with close to 900,000 captured. the difference though is the Soviets can replace them, the Germans on the other hand cannot. German losses on the Eastern Front stands at 300,000. With the focus of the war now shifting to the East, the Western Front have remained quiet reminiscent of the so-called "phony war" that characterized the months following the German invasion of Poland in 1939. This allows the French to begin outproducing the Germans in tank and plane production by a wide margin and combined with British tanks and troops puring into France, allied forces in the west have have become overwhelmingly one-sided.
In France, the growing pressure on the government to launch a major offensive has been steadily mounting since the start of the Soviet War, particularly from French communists. On an interesting note, the quality of military hardware produced in French factories with significant numbers of communists are better than in factories where communist influence is weak.
This sudden turn around and new found patriotism by French communists doesn't impress the government or the vast majority of the French public. The majority of the French people regard the Communist party in France with suspicion, accusing them of putting the interrests of the Soviet Union ahead of French national interest. Suspicion against communists reached an all time high, that it forces the Communist Party to lay low.
The Allies however have launched a major offensive in Norway, by early Spring of 1942, and to a lesser extent minor offensives are also launched in Holland and the southern Ardennes. Allied tactics have grown more sophisticated over the last two years due to hard lessons learned from the January and June offensives of 1940. Allied armored divisions and planes have made the allied offensive in Norway and Holland very mobile encountering weaker German resistance. The frontlines are largely fluid and concentrated French heavy armored divisions of B1bis prove very useful when brute force was needed to take an objective. Simply put they roll over German defenses in Norway with relative ease.
The main allied offensive was centered in Norway. Ittl the allied campaign in Norway was similar to the allied campaign in North Africa of otl. Ittl Norway replaces North Africa in playing an important but secondary role to the larger war unfolding in the East. Norway serves as a training ground for allied troops in reacting to German defenses and tactics as well as a proving ground for allied tanks all throughout the summer of 1942, The Germans are really unable to do much in Norway due to the more pressing German concerns in the East. The French and British have another major advantage the Germans didn't have, the allies are in friendly territory. French and British pilots shot down over German lines in Norway are aided by Norwegians who eagerly hide them from one safe house to another until they reach allied lines. Information collected by the Norwegian resistance on German troop movements prove very valuable for the French and British.
With winter fast approaching the Germans have become compressed ever tighter in southern Norway. With the French in clear command of the air and the British navy dominant at sea, re-supplying the Germans in Norway has become more difficult. French fighters continually harass German transport planes, and German convoys are preyed upon by the Royal Navy....
I think you are skipping the results of Winter War; Soviet army came out extremely devastated and I don't see the Germans seeing that as an enemy to reckon with for some time much less Stalin giving a display of muscle.
Much less the German offensive ITTL with having major losses in tanks, trucks and arty tubes in Belgium; OTL the victory in the West filled the holes in the German army for motorizing even more and keep whats motorized moving. The loot of trucks and AFVs were so great!
The Scandinavian campaign was just a side show but it detailed a very large part of Luftwaffe so much that Luftwaffe units were pulled out before the end of campaign to be ready for Case Yellow.
ITTL I have difficulty seeing the Germans pulling off Weserübung as were; remember that the invasion of Norway was close to going awry. Just a little bad luck on the part of the Germans and it all comes tumbling down.
Much less the German offensive ITTL with having major losses in tanks, trucks and arty tubes in Belgium; OTL the victory in the West filled the holes in the German army for motorizing even more and keep whats motorized moving. The loot of trucks and AFVs were so great!
The Scandinavian campaign was just a side show but it detailed a very large part of Luftwaffe so much that Luftwaffe units were pulled out before the end of campaign to be ready for Case Yellow.
ITTL I have difficulty seeing the Germans pulling off Weserübung as were; remember that the invasion of Norway was close to going awry. Just a little bad luck on the part of the Germans and it all comes tumbling down.
The seminal Pacific/Asian event in OTL was the japanese occupation of French Indo China in the winter of 1940-41. With the French defeated and their miltiary restricte by nazi supervision it was a easy matter for Japans imperialists to execute a near bloodless invasion of the French colony. This did a lot to break the isolationists in the US & led directly to the US/Britain organized trade embargos of mid 1941, which put Japan in a impossible position economically.
With France still in the fight and both Britain and France able to build their military it would be extremely difficult for the Indo China invasion to be sold to Japans government. It would be in fact a declaration of war against Britain and France, a war for which Japan was unprepared in December 1940, or even March 1941. Economiclly such a DoW would be as bad or worse than any threatened embargos.
Odds are Japan would focus on its war with China & see relations with the Allies and nuetral US deteriorate much more slowly than in OTL. After all neither the Allie nor the US really want a Pacific war at this point.
"Also in the summer of 41 the French achieve air superiority; the luftwaffe is simply unable to get enough planes into the sky, hampered by lack of fuel and the crumbling German economy."
Maybe I missed it in the earlier posts: Both Britain & France had placed large orders for aircraft in US factories. I dont remember the nubers for the British, but the French had approx 1,800 modern aircraft scheduled for delivery in 1940 & were negotiating contracts for over 3,000 aircraft in 1941. Looking at the actual US aircraft production of 1941 it is possible twice that - 6,000 aircraft could have been delivered to France in 41.
A second point here was the better organization of the British & French pilot training over the German air force. Both started in 1939 to focus their war time air crew training on just the specific skills needed for the next year of war. Thus during the Battle of Britain in OTL the RAF could take a rookie fighter pilot from start to squadron in 90 days. His German counterpart was still in 1940 following a syllbus of some 300+ days that produced a well rounded 'airman' but with hardly any more flight hours than his Brit counterpart.
The Brits & French made it a point to keep their aircrew training at full schedule, while the Germans shut down their schools at the start of each campaign so the instructors could reinforce the combat squadrons.
Maybe I missed it in the earlier posts: Both Britain & France had placed large orders for aircraft in US factories. I dont remember the nubers for the British, but the French had approx 1,800 modern aircraft scheduled for delivery in 1940 & were negotiating contracts for over 3,000 aircraft in 1941. Looking at the actual US aircraft production of 1941 it is possible twice that - 6,000 aircraft could have been delivered to France in 41.
A second point here was the better organization of the British & French pilot training over the German air force. Both started in 1939 to focus their war time air crew training on just the specific skills needed for the next year of war. Thus during the Battle of Britain in OTL the RAF could take a rookie fighter pilot from start to squadron in 90 days. His German counterpart was still in 1940 following a syllbus of some 300+ days that produced a well rounded 'airman' but with hardly any more flight hours than his Brit counterpart.
The Brits & French made it a point to keep their aircrew training at full schedule, while the Germans shut down their schools at the start of each campaign so the instructors could reinforce the combat squadrons.
Absolutely the smartest thing for Italy to do is to remain nuetral through 1941 and squeeze whatever it can from each side. Perhaps Italy can join the Allies in late 1941 after two years of careful preperation of its army & air force. if Italy goes to war too soon it suffers from all sort of economic and military problems, and loses much of its bargaining power.
As 1941 plays out the weapons will become very different. Here are a couple of the tanks the French had in development. The G1 existed as a few chassis test vehicles & a turret mockup with a 75mm gun. Note the low hull profile and the dome shaped turret that anticipates the Soviet turrets of the T54 & later types. The armor was to be much heavier than the 1930s standards on the sides as well as the front crew was contemplated at 3-4 men.
The B1 ter is a bit less radical, but a lot more armored. It is of course the next in the series of B, B1 bis series of designs. The guns were much the same but the entire mechanical kit improved. The armor was intended to be proof against the next generation of German 5cm AT guns and hopefully larger 7cm guns.
The SaU40 is a bit misunderstood. The usual assumption is it was a assualt gun much like the German StG or Red Army SU types. While the SaU specifications contemplated use in the assualt role they also looked for a indirect fire capability. Armored field artillery. The guns were mounted so as to elevate for longer range fire. The small turret on top held a range finder and gun laying sight. Each 'groupe' of twelve gun vehicals also was to have two without guns, to make room for equipment to served as armored combat observation/fire control posts. The Groupe also was to have a artillery ammunition train, and extra communications vehicles the same as any other French artillery groupe of twelve cannon.
All these were expected to enter production in 1941. The SAU40 was actually in limited production in mid 1940 & a dozen vehicles were operational in June.
Lest the 75mm guns the G1 & B1 tanks were designed for seem unambitious the French had a high velocity 90mm gun in development. A 105mm howitzer was also proposed as a alternate to the 75mm gun for the SAU40
The B1 ter is a bit less radical, but a lot more armored. It is of course the next in the series of B, B1 bis series of designs. The guns were much the same but the entire mechanical kit improved. The armor was intended to be proof against the next generation of German 5cm AT guns and hopefully larger 7cm guns.
The SaU40 is a bit misunderstood. The usual assumption is it was a assualt gun much like the German StG or Red Army SU types. While the SaU specifications contemplated use in the assualt role they also looked for a indirect fire capability. Armored field artillery. The guns were mounted so as to elevate for longer range fire. The small turret on top held a range finder and gun laying sight. Each 'groupe' of twelve gun vehicals also was to have two without guns, to make room for equipment to served as armored combat observation/fire control posts. The Groupe also was to have a artillery ammunition train, and extra communications vehicles the same as any other French artillery groupe of twelve cannon.
All these were expected to enter production in 1941. The SAU40 was actually in limited production in mid 1940 & a dozen vehicles were operational in June.
Lest the 75mm guns the G1 & B1 tanks were designed for seem unambitious the French had a high velocity 90mm gun in development. A 105mm howitzer was also proposed as a alternate to the 75mm gun for the SAU40