Case Green- A WW2 Alternate History

[FanOfHistory]

This is verging on ASB. No way the Germans would have had this kind of success. You're giving the Wehrmacht of 1938 the same abilities as the Wehrmacht of 1940.

How? Yes the Wehrmacht of 1938 was nowhere near the Wehrmacht of 1940, but they're not fighting the full Czechoslovak army. They're fighting the Czech army. Read Post #16.

There are the locations of the Czechoslovak fortifications. There are many places for the Germans to push through

 

[Bookmark1995]

This is pretty good. Subscribed.

 

[Tanner151]

Enjoying the story. I’ve always liked scenarios of war beginning in 1938 over Czechoslovakia rather than Poland in 1939.

Though I wouldn’t say this is ASB, it should be noted that the Czechoslovakian LT vz.35 (LT-35) were pretty good tanks and should be hurting the Germans, especially with only a few Panzer IIIs and Panzer IVs in the field.

Maybe have this war stretch out for another week or two for some more believability. The Germans are not as motorized as they will be a year later and I’m sure there plenty of teething issues with deploying the Wehrmacht and Luftwaffe en masse for the first time.

Also Blitzkrieg is unable to be fully utilized due to the terrain and fortification. So I think Czechoslovakia being cut in two in just 11 days stretches realism a bit (in my opinion and I’m no die-hard fact checker so maybe I’m wrong). Because if the country is cut in two and Poland, Hungary and Slovakia all move on the Czechs then they won’t last long at all after that. Maybe days.

So my recommendation is another week, at least, of hard fighting where the Germans learn some lessons on using mechanized units in mountainous terrain (and how it should be avoided) and taking notes on how costly urban warfare is.

And even with Czechoslovakia conquered relatively cheaply, it used a lot of German fuel and munitions and there will need to be several weeks to undergo maintenance on their Panzers and trucks for the attack on the Low Countries and France.

 

[Zheng He]

Agree on the Czech tanks being pretty good machines, I thought a decent fraction of the tanks the Germans used in May and June of 1940 were tanks they "acquired" from the Czechs? Correct me if I am wrong on that...

 

[Tanner151]

Agree on the Czech tanks being pretty good machines, I thought a decent fraction of the tanks the Germans used in May and June of 1940 were tanks they "acquired" from the Czechs? Correct me if I am wrong on that...

They were used on the frontlines until early 1942, or maybe late 1941 I believe.

They were outclassed by the Panzer IV but equivalent with the Panzer III I believe.

 

[mcducky]

They were used on the frontlines until early 1942, or maybe late 1941 I believe.

They were outclassed by the Panzer IV but equivalent with the Panzer III I believe.

Both Panzer III/IV had at the most 25-30mm frontal armour at this with the panzer IV only having the short 75mm howitzer with almost a complete he load for infantry support depending on the panzer III for anti tank support with its 37mm cannon so the Czech and Germans are on about equal ground with the older tanks being little more than tracked armoured cars with there machine guns and auto canons so a little less than useless in a ranged tank battle

 

[Tanner151]

You’re right, I was thinking of later Panzer IV Models with the anti-armor 75mm. But yeah the P4s of 1938 are anti-infantry centered.

How long would it take the Germans to refit their Panzer IVs with the long barreled anti-armor 75mm cannon? Or would they even want to since their Panzers are on parity with the Czech tanks. They’ll likely need to when they go up against French and British tanks and definitely when up against Soviet tanks.

So for the Germans inevitable invasion of the Low Countries and France they won’t have time to upgun all their Panzer IVs or even Panzer IIIs to 50mm before the battle for Western Europe begins, that is if the Germans attack in the winter of ‘39 to surprise the Entente or in the Spring/Summer of ‘40.

 

[mcducky]

Unless they run into Char B1s or Matilda's in Czechoslovakia theres no reason for them to do it the panzer IV was designed for infantry support it was up gunned after running into heavy British and French tanks and even then it wasn't until they ran into the T-34 and kv-1 did they start equipping them with the high velocity 75mm gun. The panzer might see it up gunned to take the 42 caliber 50mm cannon sooner but not likely. Now the big problem here for the Germans is that now they don't have the pz 38(t) that made a good portion of there panzer divisions tanks to face the British and French tanks on equal ground as even in 1940 the panzer II made up a good portion of German tanks as the pz III/IV were still in limited production with the D model just coming into frontline service with most in service being the A/B/C models which were veterans of Poland but in this time line we would only have the ausf A/B with limited ausf C joining for combat trials and the panzer III there were only about 70 in service as different proof of concept prototypes with limited production runs

 

[Tanner151]

Unless they run into Char B1s or Matilda's in Czechoslovakia theres no reason for them to do it the panzer IV was designed for infantry support it was up gunned after running into heavy British and French tanks and even then it wasn't until they ran into the T-34 and kv-1 did they start equipping them with the high velocity 75mm gun. The panzer might see it up gunned to take the 42 caliber 50mm cannon sooner but not likely. Now the big problem here for the Germans is that now they don't have the pz 38(t) that made a good portion of there panzer divisions tanks to face the British and French tanks on equal ground as even in 1940 the panzer II made up a good portion of German tanks as the pz III/IV were still in limited production with the D model just coming into frontline service with most in service being the A/B/C models which were veterans of Poland but in this time line we would only have the ausf A/B with limited ausf C joining for combat trials and the panzer III there were only about 70 in service as different proof of concept prototypes with limited production runs

True. The Germans will capture Skoda Works but I’m sure the Czechs will willingly ruin their own factories when they are on the verge of being captured. The Germans can rebuild it but it might take a year or more and by then they might as well just convert it to Panzer production rather than continue making Czech tanks with an iron cross painted on it.

 

[History Learner]

@wiking before has suggested the Germans could have standardized on the Panzer IV chassis, given it could fulfill both the Anti-tank and infantry support role. He also before has cited material or done a thread (Can't recall which) that showed it was plausible to have the Panzer IVs upgrade to the "Long 50" in 1940/1941.

 

[History Learner]

True. The Germans will capture Skoda Works but I’m sure the Czechs will willingly ruin their own factories when they are on the verge of being captured. The Germans can rebuild it but it might take a year or more and by then they might as well just convert it to Panzer production rather than continue making Czech tanks with an iron cross painted on it.

It's pretty damn hard to actually destroy machinery and in the WWII context I think atomic weapons and/or direct firebombings of it was about the only way to do such. USSBS immediately after the war found that only like 2% of production loss was due to direct damage IIRC, with the rest largely coming from missed work hours.

 

[CalBear]

The Czechs would have stomped the Wehrmacht flat as a frigging bug. Game over. Mortal lock.

The Heer was largely supplied from Czech stocks (conveniently for the Reich the Czech Army used the same caliber, hell, the vz.24 was simply an improved Gewehr 98) when it invaded Poland.

The Wehrmacht was not ready for prime time in 1938. The Pz III was not in production. The Pz I and Pz. II were no match for the LT vz. 38 (or the Lt vz. 35 for that matter) the 37 mm gun on the LT 35 could defeat the Pz. II front armor out to 1,600 meters and the 37mm on the LT 38 could punch through BOTH SIDES of the Pz II at the same range.

 

[FanOfHistory]

The Czechs would have stomped the Wehrmacht flat as a frigging bug. Game over. Mortal lock.

The Heer was largely supplied from Czech stocks (conveniently for the Reich the Czech Army used the same caliber, hell, the vz.24 was simply an improved Gewehr 98) when it invaded Poland.

The Wehrmacht was not ready for prime time in 1938. The Pz III was not in production. The Pz I and Pz. II were no match for the LT vz. 38 (or the Lt vz. 35 for that matter) the 37 mm gun on the LT 35 could defeat the Pz. II front armor out to 1,600 meters and the 37mm on the LT 38 could punch through BOTH SIDES of the Pz II at the same range.

By all means, if you want to create a TL where Germany invades Czechoslovakia and gets their asses handed to them go ahead. I'd be happy to read it.

 

[CalBear]

By all means, if you want to create a TL where Germany invades Czechoslovakia and gets their asses handed to them go ahead. I'd be happy to read it.

There is a certain minor basis of reality that is needed for post 1900.

Might want to keep that in mind.

Research helps too. Like the actual earliest possible date for production Pz. III. I suspect that two unarmed, pre-production models are going to be rather unimpressive in combat. Or that the Ausf A, B, & C production models all shared the same, utterly pitiful 14mm of armor with the Pz II and were therefore no match for the LT 35 or LT 38. Even the D & E variants only managed 30mm of armor, again incapable of handling the vastly superior Czech light tanks.

 

[Falecius]

The Czechs would have stomped the Wehrmacht flat as a frigging bug. Game over. Mortal lock.

The Heer was largely supplied from Czech stocks (conveniently for the Reich the Czech Army used the same caliber, hell, the vz.24 was simply an improved Gewehr 98) when it invaded Poland.

The Wehrmacht was not ready for prime time in 1938. The Pz III was not in production. The Pz I and Pz. II were no match for the LT vz. 38 (or the Lt vz. 35 for that matter) the 37 mm gun on the LT 35 could defeat the Pz. II front armor out to 1,600 meters and the 37mm on the LT 38 could punch through BOTH SIDES of the Pz II at the same range.

So why didn't they fight in 1938 anyway (maybe the Soviets would have helped a bit)? Overestimation of German capabilities?

 

[FanOfHistory]

There is a certain minor basis of reality that is needed for post 1900.

Might want to keep that in mind.

Research helps too. Like the actual earliest possible date for production Pz. III. I suspect that two unarmed, pre-production models are going to be rather unimpressive in combat. Or that the Ausf A, B, & C production models all shared the same, utterly pitiful 14mm of armor with the Pz II and were therefore no match for the LT 35 or LT 38. Even the D & E variants only managed 30mm of armor, again incapable of handling the vastly superior Czech light tanks.

According to Tank Encyclopedia, by 1938 the Czechs had around 800 armored vehicles. Around 140 light tanks, 298 medium tanks, and 110 armored cars.

http://www.tanks-encyclopedia.com/ww2/czech/ww2_Czech_Tanks.php

The Panzer III ausf A-D all had between 5-16 mm or armor, but they all had the 37 mm cannon

http://www.tanks-encyclopedia.com/ww2/nazi_germany/Panzer_III.php

The Lt 35 had between 8-35 mm of armor and a 37 mm cannon

http://www.tanks-encyclopedia.com/ww2/czech/Skoda_CKD_LT-Vz-35.php

The Lt 35 and the Panzer III are a match for each other. The Panzer II also has a chance, because even though a Czech tank can knock out the Panzer II in one shot, the Panzer II's 20 mm cannon can still punch parts of the Czech tanks. And the Panzer II's cannon was also an autocannon, meaning that the Panzer II commander could fire more shots than his Czech counterpart.

Another thing too is that the Lt 38 never saw service with the Czech army. They ordered 150 of the prototype, but none were delivered before OTL German occupation in March of '39. My TL has the Germans attack on October 1st, 1938.

http://www.tanks-encyclopedia.com/ww2/nazi_germany/Panzer-38T.php

 

[CalBear]

According to Tank Encyclopedia, by 1938 the Czechs had around 800 armored vehicles. Around 140 light tanks, 298 medium tanks, and 110 armored cars.

http://www.tanks-encyclopedia.com/ww2/czech/ww2_Czech_Tanks.php

The Panzer III ausf A-D all had between 5-16 mm or armor, but they all had the 37 mm cannon

http://www.tanks-encyclopedia.com/ww2/nazi_germany/Panzer_III.php

The Lt 35 had between 8-35 mm of armor and a 37 mm cannon

http://www.tanks-encyclopedia.com/ww2/czech/Skoda_CKD_LT-Vz-35.php

The Lt 35 and the Panzer III are a match for each other. The Panzer II also has a chance, because even though a Czech tank can knock out the Panzer II in one shot, the Panzer II's 20 mm cannon can still punch parts of the Czech tanks. And the Panzer II's cannon was also an autocannon, meaning that the Panzer II commander could fire more shots than his Czech counterpart.

Another thing too is that the Lt 38 never saw service with the Czech army. They ordered 150 of the prototype, but none were delivered before OTL German occupation in March of '39. My TL has the Germans attack on October 1st, 1938.

http://www.tanks-encyclopedia.com/ww2/nazi_germany/Panzer-38T.php

Of course the issue is that there ARE NO Pz III and there is no way for there to be any. The design was not ready for series production until 1939. There is no way to kick production forward (unlike, as an example, the early models of a number of aircraft produced in the West because the Reich was already pushing as hard as it could, unlike the Western countries). The Pz III could make a curtain call, with a few C or D models getting a field trial, but not in any sort of numbers.

 

[CalBear]

So why didn't they fight in 1938 anyway (maybe the Soviets would have helped a bit)? Overestimation of German capabilities?

Mainly they lost the will to resist once the British and French sold them down the river. The Reich did a really good bit of bluffing and everyone else at the table folded.

 

[BiteNibbleChomp]

Of course the issue is that there ARE NO Pz III and there is no way for there to be any. The design was not ready for series production until 1939. There is no way to kick production forward (unlike, as an example, the early models of a number of aircraft produced in the West because the Reich was already pushing as hard as it could, unlike the Western countries). The Pz III could make a curtain call, with a few C or D models getting a field trial, but not in any sort of numbers.

That actually wouldn't matter all that much. The Germans had 9000 37mm Pak 36 when they invaded Poland, so probably 5000 are available for a Fall Grun war (and even if half of those are on the Siegfried line, that's still 10x the amount of AT guns as the Czechs have tanks). The infantryman's AT gun was responsible for more tank kills than other tanks were, so 100 Pz IIIs aren't going to be missed too much.

Germany had a plausible enough chance to win 1-on-1 vs the Czechs, assuming ammo stockpiles hold up (and Hitler must have had some sort of reserve or he wouldn't have attempted to get the Sudetenland in the first place). An 11-day encirclement in Bohemia might be close to a best-case scenario, but it could be done with a bit of luck. The Wehrmacht probably won't be in great shape after the operation, and France will be well positioned to hurt them badly in '39/'40, but so far the TL seems plausible enough to me.

- BNC

 

[FanOfHistory]

Of course the issue is that there ARE NO Pz III and there is no way for there to be any. The design was not ready for series production until 1939. There is no way to kick production forward (unlike, as an example, the early models of a number of aircraft produced in the West because the Reich was already pushing as hard as it could, unlike the Western countries). The Pz III could make a curtain call, with a few C or D models getting a field trial, but not in any sort of numbers.

Yes there were. By 1938, the Germans had prototype models of the Panzer III and Panzer IV. There weren't that many of them, but they were there. And like I said in post #11, "Germany puts all their Panzer IIIs and IVs into action."