Case blue North 1942

What if the German's made Leningrad ( and by extension Murmansk) the primary focus of the 1942 campaign?
Let's say Hitler is convinced that the oilfields of the Caucasus will never be captured intact. Instead, he resolves to push the South front forward enough to bring Maikop/Grozny into luftwaffe range and has them bombed to deny them to the Soviets. Baku is still out of range though.
Meanwhile, the main summer offensive goes off in the North, aiming to capture Leningrad, link up with the finns and threaten/cut off Murmansk.
How would things go for the Germans? Better or worse than OTL?
 
Well, providing the access to Maikop/Grozny from the air requires how much?
The POD could be a remarkable appreciation of logistics issues leading them to attempt capture as much as possible of the river Don and then to cut off the Volga. Denying the caucasus from the Russians and then wait until 1943 when the railroad Networks have improved to take the rest. There is a lot of claims that Stalingrad could have been taken "on the march" so maybe thats possibly by July.
Then relocation and a major trust at Leningrad in September?
In principle, the Russians could be made to think the major thrust was against Moscow.
I would think anything that avoids Stalingrad is an improvement over OTL, but you are asking the Germans to go aggressively for what is realistic and not further. Requires quite some level of strategic insight.
 
OTL the primary reason that Nazis lost the Battle of Stalingrad was they abandoned blitzkrieg. Before encircling Stalingrad, they committed too many thousands of soldiers to the meat-grinder within the city.
By-passing Stalingrad might have permitted Nazis to reach the Caucasus oil fields.

Logistically, I wonder how far German ships could support the advance on Murmansk???
Would Finns allow German soldiers to use Finnish railways?
If Murmansk was captured by Nazis, were there any other White Sea ports that could accept LL shipments?
Or would U-boats maul convoys before they sailed into Russian waters?
 

Deleted member 1487

What if the German's made Leningrad ( and by extension Murmansk) the primary focus of the 1942 campaign?
Let's say Hitler is convinced that the oilfields of the Caucasus will never be captured intact. Instead, he resolves to push the South front forward enough to bring Maikop/Grozny into luftwaffe range and has them bombed to deny them to the Soviets. Baku is still out of range though.
Meanwhile, the main summer offensive goes off in the North, aiming to capture Leningrad, link up with the finns and threaten/cut off Murmansk.
How would things go for the Germans? Better or worse than OTL?
I have done very similar threads recently:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/operation-nordlicht-instead-of-störfang.398497/
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-to-tikhvin-operation-leningrad-falls.399000/

Basically instead of launching the assault on Sevastopol the Germans attack Leningrad in early summer 1942 after reinforcing them with several fresh divisions after tackling the Soviet offensive at Kharkov and launching their own follow up offensives in Ukraine to maim the Soviets, as well as taking back Taman. Likely first the Germans would have to launch Operation Moorbrand to cripple the Soviet 54th army East of the city before they could launch Nordlicht.

The thing is Hitler thought both Case Blue and Operation Northern Lights (the operation against Leningrad and Murmansk in 1942) were both doable at the same time; in the latter case the Soviets preempted the Germans and bogged them down in fighting east of Leningrad and shortly after Stalingrad happened. The problem is Hitler needed Caucasian oil in 1942 and thought the Soviets were one decisive push from falling over. So you'd need something to convince him that oil was unreachable, Germany could survive without it, the Soviets had a lot more staying power, and Leningrad was the place to go for first. I really don't know how you do that. Assuming you do though the Soviets will lose Leningrad and Murmansk, but have more reserves to put into the Northern theater to make that costly for the Germans, plus have more reserves to throw at Rzhev and more reserves to launch major attacks in Ukraine in 1942. Unless you're planning on multiple 'backhand blows' as 2nd and 3rd Kharkov turned into that equal at least damage inflicted on the Soviets IOTL, plus leave the Germans a lot less worn down, 1942 is going to be a bloody, tough year for the Germans. Case Blue inflicted huge economic and manpower losses on the Soviets, taking Leningrad and Murmansk will certainly help, as will follow up northern operation like completely opening up the Demyansk Bulge supply lines, Operation Whirlwind against a bulge at the southeast base of the Rzhev salient, and potentially trying to lop off the Toropets bulge completely (assuming it could be done inexpensively). Potentially without the over extension in the south the Germans could have improved their position on the Eastern Front without opening themselves to a Operation Uranus level riposte, but that is iffy. Certainly taking Leningrad at a reasonable cost and following that up taking Karelia and Murmansk would be a big help, as would then using forces freed up in the north for operations around Rzhev, assuming those follow up operations work out.

I suppose at worst they take similar losses to OTL, minus Operation Uranus, without inflicting equal levels of damage on the Soviets to OTL. So the Soviets are stronger in their Summer-Winter 1942 attacks on the Germans, as they are starting much further west. Perhaps they push the Germans back more quickly? It is hard to see the Germans losing as quickly though without the Stalingrad disaster.
 

Deleted member 1487

And then of course taking both cities would probably open up Finland to entering the Axis. (sans Karelia)
Why do you suppose that? I think they were just going to do their parallel war and get out once the Soviets are driven out of Murmansk and Karelia. I think the Germans would want to pull troops out of the region anyway for other uses, so if the Finns could make a separate peace and drop out of the war and be a raw material supplier for Germany that would fulfill Germany's desires on the region.
 
Why do you suppose that? I think they were just going to do their parallel war and get out once the Soviets are driven out of Murmansk and Karelia. I think the Germans would want to pull troops out of the region anyway for other uses, so if the Finns could make a separate peace and drop out of the war and be a raw material supplier for Germany that would fulfill Germany's desires on the region.

Agreed - but if you/i were Ribbentrop wouldn't it make sense to do whatever you could to get Finland into the Axis?
I know Mannerheim was a tough nut to crack but with Karelia as a bargaining chip..
I dont see why it wouldn't make sense to go for broke so to speak and bring Finland into the fold under the auspices of a land exchange
 

Deleted member 1487

Agreed - but if you/i were Ribbentrop wouldn't it make sense to do whatever you could to get Finland into the Axis?
I know Mannerheim was a tough nut to crack but with Karelia as a bargaining chip..
I dont see why it wouldn't make sense to go for broke so to speak and bring Finland into the fold under the auspices of a land exchange
Ribbentrop didn't make independent decisions from Hitler, he was Hitler's appendage, nothing more. It depends on what Hitler wants and if he thinks Finland isn't really useful anymore he may not care about entry into the Axis. Though you are right, Hitler wanted to get as many nations in and dependent on Germany was possible, but Finland won't necessarily do it, but may have to once they piss off the Allies by helping go after Murmansk. The thing is Finland wanted all of Karelia and the Murmansk area to the White Sea to make Greater Finland, so if Leningrad falls and they have no more excuses to hold of the Germans on the issue of Murmansk, they could well think the war in the East is more likely than not to end in a stalemate/German victory, so best go all the way and hope the best. I wouldn't be surprised with them offering a separate peace to get out of the war and avoid the Axis, but that may not be an option once they create Greater Finland. It could go a bunch of ways, but Stalin and the Allies will be pissed if Karelia/Murmansk falls, but there is nothing they can do about it for a long time, while the Germans free up a lot of manpower, capture a ton of equipment, and cut off 25% of LL. They also would eliminate something like 1 million Soviet soldiers, capture factories and probably over 1000 AAA guns, as well as open up the Baltic Sea to shipping in supplies, while eliminating the Soviet Baltic Sea Fleet, especially the subs harassing German-Swedish shipping and frees up maybe another 500k Germans for operations elsewhere (counting divisions screening Leningrad, reinforcements to take the city, and closing out the Northern Front and being able to remove troops from Finland). Subsequent planned German operations might well be enough to convince the Finns just to join the Axis, because if by winter they could crack open supply lines to Demyansk, destroy a couple of Soviet armies in Operation Whirlwind near Rzhev and potentially eliminate the entire Kalinin Front by attacking from Demyansk and Rzhev toward the Valdai Hills, that would probably take out another 700k-1 million Soviet troops, irrespective of what happens in Ukraine and with Soviet attacks on Rzhev. If all that goes down in 1942 with the Germans then having fortified their lines in Ukraine, not having burned themselves out in Case Blue and not having experienced the Stalingrad disaster, then they might be in a good position to get a stalemate in the East going forward as they have to shift resources to the Mediterranean and France. It would certainly hobble the Soviets going forward and free up a lot of German troops and avoid a lot of losses they had historically. Finland might think they are untouchable then and can get a separate peace if the Wallies do well, while Stalin will be too weak to come back at them.
 
Uh, wasn't the southern attack meant to capture the excellent Ukraine harvest en-route to the Caspian oil-fields ?

IIRC, after the division of Poland, the Germans bought a lot of oil, grain and other ag produce off the Russians. But why buy when you can *own* ??

But the retreating Russians did a 'Scorched Earth'...
 

Deleted member 1487

Uh, wasn't the southern attack meant to capture the excellent Ukraine harvest en-route to the Caspian oil-fields ?
Never heard that, especially as the Germans held most of Ukraine already. They were after oil and perhaps the grain fields of the Kuban as a byproduct of the advance. If you have sourcing otherwise I'm open to being convince.

IIRC, after the division of Poland, the Germans bought a lot of oil, grain and other ag produce off the Russians. But why buy when you can *own* ??

But the retreating Russians did a 'Scorched Earth'...
Right, but that was done in 1941, not in 1942. Yes, the Soviets really did rip things up in their retreat, but it was mostly repairable with some time.
 

Deleted member 1487

This POD got my wheels turning about the possibilities, but the part I cannot really get over is who to get Hitler to realize that Case Blue was not viable and the oil wasn't extractable from the Caucasus and that the Soviets were not yet ready to be pushed over, so multiple offensives was not possible. Perhaps if the Matzen oil field in Austria is discovered and Hitler and Goering actually listen about the logistics of getting oil out of the Caucasus and decide that a more restrained series of moves in 1942 is necessary because the Soviets aren't about to fall over? I don't know really how to get the necessary POD.

But if it were to happen things would be very different than IOTL and get very interesting as a result. The effects I mentioned earlier would still be at play, namely the fall of Leningrad and Murmansk in Summer 1942, freeing up around 500k Germans for other missions, eliminating over 1 million Soviet soldiers and capturing a ton of valuable turf and equipment/factories, shortening the front line dramatically, and cutting off 25% of Lend Lease. It would also force the Allies to travel much further to deliver equivalent amounts of LL to other ports (Persia, Vladivostok), while they weren't really set up to take that much more supplies even by early 1943 (especially Persia). Plus then the Soviets would have to rail it much further to get to the front, while the Germans would free up a lot of resources like the 5th Air Fleet and naval units for other missions.

Assuming the sequencing here is Operation Trappenjagd in May against Taman, 2nd Kharkov, Operation Störfang against Sevastopol, then Operations Wilhelm and Fredericus II to distract Soviet forces in Ukraine, while sending the 18th army additional divisions to create the conditions for Operation Nordlicht in July (i.e. not waiting for 11th army to be moved north), they could launch Operation Moorbrand in June to effectively crush the Soviet 54th army and free up more troops for the attack on Leningrad, while having Richthofen's 8th Air Corps moved north, while other divisions and artillery are moved in. So in July Leningrad could be taken by Manstein's command moved in for the mission, while then after that it would be possible to clear the West bank of the Volkhov river with freed up forces from Leningrad, while the Finns and German mountain and light divisions could move north to finish off Murmansk in August-September. In August the units freed up from Leningrad and not sent north could help with the widening of the Demyansk salient's supply lines, which would hurt the Soviet forces in the area quite a bit (I forget the names of the operations, one was launched IOTL and was really successful and badly messed up Soviet forces on the southern side of the salient for minimal German losses, while ITTL the northern side of the salient could be attacked too and open up a rail line into the salient as well as shorten the line and push Soviet artillery out of range of the supply lines), while units transferred in from Ukraine/Crimea could help launch Operation Whirlwind and pinch off part of Soviet forces near the base of the Rzhev salient and shorten lines there dramatically...the problem though is that was planned for right when the Soviets launched their Rzhev offensive that summer, which IOTL screwed up the planned offensive.

Soviet offensives for 1942 though would impact these German offensives though, especially in Rzhev. Without Case Blue they have reserves around Moscow to throw at Rzhev. After 2nd Kharkov and follow up German offensives in Ukraine they'd have neutered Soviet forces in the south, so that wouldn't be much of an issue for summer 1942...but Soviet reserves defending Moscow would be. Historically the Germans had a successful deception operation to keep Soviet reserves locked down around Moscow for Summer 1942, but ITTL they might launch their deception operation to convince the Soviets they were attacking in Ukraine; Stalin's paranoia about the loss of Moscow though might mean this isn't successful. Regardless the Soviets will at least have their 5th Tank army that was used around Voronezh in Summer 1942 for use against Rzhev ITTL (among other units), so they might put even more pressure on AG-Center to the point that some of these planned offensive operations the Germans had might not be viable because they will be engaged in heavy defensive fighting. Cutting off the Kalinin Front in the Toropets/Kholm salient would probably not be that viable until Autumn, but by then the weather makes that a risky proposition. I wonder how Operation Mars would play out without Operation Uranus? Perhaps there would be an offensive along the Volkhov river to recapture Leningrad over winter 1942-43? I'd imagine 3rd Kharkov happens in Winter 1943, if not sooner, but much stronger without having to advance from Stalingrad/the Don to get there. The Germans would be much stronger too, as they haven't budged in the Ukraine all year for the most part, so will have strong defensive lines and reserves, so I guess the Kursk bulge doesn't form.

I'm thinking that the Soviets will probably be as damaged at IOTL 1942, but in different areas, so it's a wash there, but the Axis forces will be much stronger and the Italians will have an entire army to withdraw from Russia to throw into Sicily come 1943 if needed, while Hungarian, Romanian, and other Axis allied armies will not be beaten up like IOTL, so will be an asset to help in the East, while the Germans still have an intact 6th army and 4th Panzer army to hold in Ukraine. Plus without the Luftwaffe getting so beaten up around Stalingrad, German supply lines being shorter and much more stable, and the lack of huge equipment losses the Germans experienced in their advance and retreat/defeat in the Caucasus and Stalingrad would mean they are pretty formidable in the field still come 1943, with tons more veterans, but with even better weapons in Summer 1943. Perhaps the focus for the German 1943 offensive is cleaning up the area around Rzhev to hold it better, like eliminating Kalinin Front and the salient between Rzhev and Demyansk if possible. For the Soviets they will still bash away at Rzhev and certainly in Ukraine. But without the encirclement losses of winter 1942-43, plus having a shorter front line and inflicting really heavy losses on the Soviets in 1942, the Eastern Front might well end up like a really big version of the 1943 Battle of Smolensk with the Soviets shoving the Germans back at extreme cost and no breakthroughs, just another defensive line to confront. The Eastern Front could get a lot bloodier and take a lot longer to deal with for the Soviets, which would be really bad news for them in the rest of the war, as they conscripted some 4 million men from the areas of the USSR the German occupied in 1943-44.

In the Mediterranean the Italian 8th army would be a problem for the Allies after they take Tunisia. Assuming that plays out as per OTL that would mean some 250k veteran, well equipped Italian troops show up in Spring/Summer 1943 to defend Sicily and Sardinia, when IOTL the Italians were down to a few poorly equipped garrison divisions that were left over after the best Italian troops were wiped out in the East and in Africa.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Army_in_Russia
Having 12 extra veteran divisions with captured Soviet military equipment, including T-34 tanks and 76mm AT/field guns would be FAR more formidable than anything the Italians had to defend themselves IOTL by Summer 1943. IOTL the Italian divisions in Sicily were estimated to be equivalent to 1/4th an Allied division because of how little of their TOE they had and how green the troops were. Here the Italian 8th army troops might well be equivalent to a full Allied division. Even with the weak German divisions left in the area after Tunisia, the FAR stronger Italian army would actually be a major problem for the Allies during any invasion. Already highly combat experienced, plus having mountain divisions that would be well suited to operations in Sicily, the Italian 8th army would be quite dangerous, despite all the jokes about Italian military prowess. So that could radically alter the situation in the Mediterranean compared to OTL, which then in turn makes the Germans quite a bit stronger in the East in 1943, as historically the fall of Sicily and invasion of Italy/defection of Italy ended up requiring the Germans to sent 9 motorized or Panzer divisions to Italy in 1943; if the Sicily invasion is either diverted to Sardinia, defeated on the beaches, or dragged out for a long time due to the Italian 8th army, then Summer 1943 in the East is much more favorable to the Germans than I allowed for above, thanks to saving a lot of divisions from having to fight in Italy proper, replace Italian troops all over the Mediterranean, and disarming the Italian military, while the Italians would be a huge help in the Mediterranean theater. It might end up being the iron gut and diverting Allied attention to France earlier.

Depending on butterflies WW2 might get longer and quite a bit bloodier with this POD...assuming you can find a way to make it happen.
 
Not an easier pod, but if we say the Russian Rzhev offensive butterfllies the attack on Leningrad and the southern offensive goes ahead, wouldn't it make sense simply to retreat from Rhzev. Make it mobile on that front thus beating the soviets with their supplies depleted in a german counterattack.
Pod could be a soviet Intelligence leak. Germans see they have to stop their offensive to defend or they Can retreat in center and advance north and south. Quite an interesting and instable situation in the Fall then with everyone exposed at the strategic level. My Best is the germans would be first to Exploit it and cut of the Rzhev salient. In the end the Soviets lose in north, South (terrain+men) and in the center(men only).
 
WI we look at this question from naval and logistics perspectives?
OTL how much damage did the Russian Baltic Fleet do to Nazi shipping in the Baltic andNorth Seas?

How much cheaper would it be to ship beans and bullets from Rostock/Kiel/Hamburg to Saint Petersburg?
How much cheaper than re-gauging Russian railroads?
How much cheaper than trucking supplies on poor roads?
How many costly River-crossings would that eliminate?
How much would it cost to barge supplies from the Baltic Coast to Moscow or the Crimea?
 
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