Case Blue: Hitler sticks to the plan

I know there's been a lot of Case Blue threads in the past, but none recently. So the POD for this one would be WI Hitler stuck to the original plan for Case Blue?

The rapid collase of Russian armies at Kharkov made Hitler over-ambitious, and he insisted that Stalingrad be and the Caucasus oilfields be taken simultaneously.

In the first draft of Case Blue however, it was deemed sufficient to to destroy the industrial capacity of the city and block the passage of the Volga to Russian shipping.

So what if Hitler stickd to this first plan and Army Group B dosnt get dragged into street-fighting where the Red Army can nullify the Heeer’s superiority in open combat this and instead holds the flanks while Army Group A drives into the Caucasus?
 
I know there's been a lot of Case Blue threads in the past, but none recently. So the POD for this one would be WI Hitler stuck to the original plan for Case Blue?

The rapid collase of Russian armies at Kharkov made Hitler over-ambitious, and he insisted that Stalingrad be and the Caucasus oilfields be taken simultaneously.

In the first draft of Case Blue however, it was deemed sufficient to to destroy the industrial capacity of the city and block the passage of the Volga to Russian shipping.

So what if Hitler stickd to this first plan and Army Group B dosnt get dragged into street-fighting where the Red Army can nullify the Heeer’s superiority in open combat this and instead holds the flanks while Army Group A drives into the Caucasus?

By then the Red Army was catching up to the Heer. My guess - an alt-Uranus is launched anyway. The drive into the Caucasus still vastly extended the front, the Germans will still need to guard their flanks, and will still use allied troops to do it. The Soviets, based in secure Stalingrad, pick a spot on the flank and unleash. The Rumanians/Hungarians/Italians/whoever collapse, and the Soviets drive for the Black Sea. The Germans make a successful fighting withdrawl from the Caucasus and end up with more troops and farther East than in OTL (Rostov, maybe), but haven't altered the strategic situation at all. The Germans still lose.

After the war, alt-NaziWank fanboys bemoan that if only Hitler had taken the 'easy' target of Stalingrad, the Nazis would have conquered the USSR.

Mike Turcotte
 
Well being an anti-Axis-wank person myself doesn’t preclude me from asking ‘’what ifs’’. Besides the position the post-Kharkov Red Army in 1942 was pretty dire at least on the southern front. The 67th Army holding Stalingrad was very unlikely and a true story of heroism against-all-the-odds, that in my opinion isn’t fully appreciated.

I should also point out the fact that Hitler launched Operation Northern Lights around the same time. Where Manstein’s 11th Army was involved. It could’ve been sent to the Caucasus instead to support the 6th Army. Instead it was withdrawn to Leningrad’s outskirts, effectively depriving the southern front of any substantial reserve.

There's a lot of scope here, that dosnt simply devolve into Axis-wank, since I believe the German chances of victory in the east post-1941 were very slim...
 
Well being an anti-Axis-wank person myself doesn’t preclude me from asking ‘’what ifs’’. Besides the position the post-Kharkov Red Army in 1942 was pretty dire at least on the southern front. The 67th Army holding Stalingrad was very unlikely and a true story of heroism against-all-the-odds, that in my opinion isn’t fully appreciated.

I should also point out the fact that Hitler launched Operation Northern Lights around the same time. Where Manstein’s 11th Army was involved. It could’ve been sent to the Caucasus instead to support the 6th Army. Instead it was withdrawn to Leningrad’s outskirts, effectively depriving the southern front of any substantial reserve.

There's a lot of scope here, that dosnt simply devolve into Axis-wank, since I believe the German chances of victory in the east post-1941 were very slim...

Believe me, I'm not trying to stop you from asking what-if. I do appreciate well-thought out PODs, and this is a new one (to me at least) for WWII.

The things that stopped the Germans in 1942 did include the mettle of the Soviet Army, but also included logistical and manpower strains, the sheer amount of frontage added, and a faulty estimate of the effectiveness of Axis minor troops.

In OTL, the Germans ran out of gas (literally) on the Maikop oil fields. Additing the 11th Army simply increases the strain on a logistical system unable to fully cope with the troops it already had to support. The Soviets are still prepping, and the Caucasus mountains themselves serve as a formidable logistical (as well as tactical) barrier.

(BTW - using the 11th Army to 'hold open the door' is an interesting idea - if the German Army Group in the Caucasus knew they had a reliable force with a reliable commander keeping their escape route open, then they can fight a savage fighting withdrawl, and really hurt the Red Army on the way out.)

Uranus ripped through the Axis minors as effectively as any German Blitz ever did. This shocked the Germans, who, while they didn't think the Axis minors were of German quality, thought they were at least the near equal of the Untermencsh Red Army. In your proposal, there is no reason for that thought to have changed, and the Rumanians are still there, ripe for the slaughter.

The entry of the USA sealed Germany's fate. The Germans doing better in the Caucasus may impact the where the Red Army and US Army meet in Europe. It will not prevent that meeting from happening.

Mike Turcotte
 
The Germans doing better in the Caucasus may impact where the Red Army and US Army meet in Europe. It will not prevent that meeting from happening.

Mike Turcotte

This might, however, affect the map of occupied postwar Europe, as (as has been pointed out many times) later POD's don't. Western Czechoslovakia and Hungary, perhaps?
 
While ultimate victory seems doubtful, a more succesful Case Blue could have interesting butterflies.

A few possible POD's:
Instead of recalling the 4th Panzer Army to assist Paulus, Hoth is allowed to race southwards.


Stalingrad and the Volga is merely neutralized by masking it. This leaves substantial forces available to combat any Russian counterattack. Considering the fighting up north around Rzhev, the Russians are not yet up to defeating a strong German army (rather than a depleted one), so a Uranus-style operation will likely fail.

Adding the 11th Army under Manstein to the other two POD's might well lead a subtantial victory of sorts. Enough to actually capture the oil reserves and be able to exploit them is doubtful but succes tends to escalate....
 
Yours truly BW749 is kicking around several alternate case blue scenario's at the moment (as a couple of my open works will close this week, I just returned from Denmark and Poland tonight)

1. Hitler doesn't divert the 4th panzer army south and they capture Stalingrad off the march in July 1942, turning over security to 6th army and then carrying their attacks farther south. The 4th panzer army accomplished nothing in their move to Rostov, and in Kleist's words "I didn't need the 4th panzer army, and they merely blocked the roads I was using and slowed the progress of my units allowing the Russians to consolidate

2. Hans Hube of the 14th Panzer Division is the first to reach the Volga at Rynok, where instead of waiting several critical days for the rest of the 6th army to catch up (otl) he instead launches an immediate river crossing and establishes his panzers on the east bank, where they roll up the city... up to this point the primary Russian plan was to abandon the city, let the Germans overextend, and then attack them in the winter.... his delay allowed the Russians to pour in forces, reorganize themselves and realize the Germans where set to storm the city in a blood battle.

3. Manstein's 11th army is sent to be in strategic reserve following behind Army Group A as he wanted, allowing the 17th army to branch out and allowing the 1st panzer army's flanks to be more secure.... very likely they at least reach the Turkish border at Batumi... however the butterflies are immense, since the 11th army was in otl sent to Leningrad, where they where able to hold off the Russians in the Second Battle of Lake Ladoga (and inflict quite a blood bath too)... without their presence its possible Army Group North is decisively defeated

4. Paulus has a stroke right when the encirclement happens. He is replaced with Seydlitz the senior corps commander, and a Hitler favorite (at the time). Seydlitz orders and immediate breakout to the southwest and is able to restore the front with his own resources

5. Operation Torch is delayed by a period of several weeks so that the encirclement at Stalingrad happens first. Divisions that ended up serving in Tunisia are instead sent to Manstein's Army Group Don which instead of being two weak corps is a full strength panzer army and he relives stalingrad, rescuing the 6th army whilst dealing massive blows to the encircling Russian forces... Africa falls apart by january 1943 with the DAK lost... but the other divisions are still available for service, even if weekened

6. Hitler doesn't fire Bock for not following orders at Voronzeth, and Army Group south doesn't get broken up into two seperate army group's being commanded by OKH/Hitler directly. With the failure to capture the city, and the encirlment Manstein is brought in to command army group south and is able to rescue the 6th army with otl resources by the skin of his teeth

There are a number of other variants ive dweled on... but these are the ones where I think there is some meat... at least one will turn into a tl this year
 
Without too much more effort they could cut the Baku-Astrakhan railroad. That would actually damage the Soviet economy enough that they couldn't just take it out of the civilian side. At this point in the war Baku is more than 80% of Soviet oil production.
 
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