Case Blue: Any way it could be successful?

[ivanotter]

All,

We probably have bashed this one to death a few times, but … here goes:

If we look at the objectives for Case Blue, these were after all rational:

Knock out the oil supply to Soviet.

If we look at it in a holistic way, all the other issues do come to the fore:

1) Stalingrad must be knocked out as it is sitting as the threat to any flank invading Caucasus
2) The Don bend is the danger area. It has to be enforced
3) The coast of the Black Sea is not secured. A straight drive towards Baku will expose it
4) The mountains are a bit of a challenge
5) … and so on

The obstacle suddenly also became the extended supply lines (logistics!) and the continued Soviet counter-attacks.

Obviously, if Stalingrad had been invest in August, it would have looked different, but one thing is to 'win' a city, another is to maximise the outcome - are denial, bridgehead, infra-structure, etc etc.

Splitting AG South into A and B might have been the 'right' decision at the time, but could AG South have dome it all anyway? The tasks would still have been the same: Don Bend, Stalingrad, etc etc.

Maybe if Case Blue would have had a single goal: destroy Baku.

But that would have involved much more of LW. Not practical after all.

Was it a dead end?

… or how would you have done it?

 

[ivanotter]

any takers?

 

[Johnrankins]

Merely siege Stalingrad and send the rest of the army towards the oil. The oil was the important thing, the city was nothing in comparison. In any case you will have to take risks in this .

 

[Phantasm]

Splitting Army Group South in July to pursue two major objectives simultaneously certainly played a huge role in dooming the whole Case Blue operation.
It would have been better to push forward first to Stalingrad and use the greater weight of men, material and time to take the city on the march in late July and then mop up any lingering Soviet Bridgeheads over the R.Don. With a strong position within Stalingrad, the Germans could interdict any river traffic being sent up the R.Volga from the Caspian. Sixth Army could then aid in holding the banks of the R.Don whilst Fourth Panzer and the motorised units could constitute a mobile reserve to ward off any Soviet offensive efforts.
Shifting south, the 1st Panzer army and 17th army could then be loosed into the Kuban and toward Novorossiysk backed up full weight of the luftwaffe. Given most of August/September, it seems entirely possible that Maikop, Voroshilovsk, Armavir, Mozdok could easily have ended up in German hands. Depending on Soviet resistance, crossing the R. Terek and seizing Grozny before October 1942 might also have have been achievable. However, logistical problems in relation to the sheer distances involved are going to negate the ability of the Germans to clear the entirety of the Black Sea coast ( not to mention the need to seize mountain passes closed off by the Red Army or Weather or both) or make any further advance on Baku in 1942 at this point.
Ideally, at this juncture, Hitler should have firm evidence that capturing the oilfields intact is a futile effort given the probable sabotage of the fields at Maikop and Grozny. Thus, with nothing better to do, the luftwaffe should be switched over to setting up bases around Grozny to smash the fields at Baku and start interdicting naval transport across the Caspian for the remainder of 1942.
This largely achieves the key objectives for Blue-Maikop, Grozny are seized albeit damaged. Baku is not but can be disrupted or put out of action. The R.Volga shipping route is cut. Potentially 80% of Soviet oil supplies are now cut off and the important agricultural areas of the Kuban are now lost to the Soviets.

 

[History Learner]

Yes, at least in terms of taking Maikop and Grozny while securing Stalingrad itself.

 

[Johnrankins]

Splitting Army Group South in July to pursue two major objectives simultaneously certainly played a huge role in dooming the whole Case Blue operation.
It would have been better to push forward first to Stalingrad and use the greater weight of men, material and time to take the city on the march in late July and then mop up any lingering Soviet Bridgeheads over the R.Don. With a strong position within Stalingrad, the Germans could interdict any river traffic being sent up the R.Volga from the Caspian. Sixth Army could then aid in holding the banks of the R.Don whilst Fourth Panzer and the motorised units could constitute a mobile reserve to ward off any Soviet offensive efforts.
Shifting south, the 1st Panzer army and 17th army could then be loosed into the Kuban and toward Novorossiysk backed up full weight of the luftwaffe. Given most of August/September, it seems entirely possible that Maikop, Voroshilovsk, Armavir, Mozdok could easily have ended up in German hands. Depending on Soviet resistance, crossing the R. Terek and seizing Grozny before October 1942 might also have have been achievable. However, logistical problems in relation to the sheer distances involved are going to negate the ability of the Germans to clear the entirety of the Black Sea coast ( not to mention the need to seize mountain passes closed off by the Red Army or Weather or both) or make any further advance on Baku in 1942 at this point.
Ideally, at this juncture, Hitler should have firm evidence that capturing the oilfields intact is a futile effort given the probable sabotage of the fields at Maikop and Grozny. Thus, with nothing better to do, the luftwaffe should be switched over to setting up bases around Grozny to smash the fields at Baku and start interdicting naval transport across the Caspian for the remainder of 1942.
This largely achieves the key objectives for Blue-Maikop, Grozny are seized albeit damaged. Baku is not but can be disrupted or put out of action. The R.Volga shipping route is cut. Potentially 80% of Soviet oil supplies are now cut off and the important agricultural areas of the Kuban are now lost to the Soviets.

Even if the Soviets sabotage it , which I agree is very likely to the point of nearly certain, they are worth taking. If you can get almost any amount of oil back home after you fix the wells it will be worth it.

 

[History Learner]

Had Paulus simply heeded the concerns of the Romanians on his flank in October/November, the campaign for Stalingrad itself would've been won and the Germans would retain Maikop.