Another useful summary covering the European forts in West Africa
http://www.colonialvoyage.com/ghana.html
Grey Wolf
http://www.colonialvoyage.com/ghana.html
Grey Wolf
Carving up Russia and China
- Thread starter Grey Wolf
- Start date
Thus, whilst the Dutch can resurrect their claims as they have not ceded sovereignty for the rest of potential colonial powers their holdings would have to be new ones
Given France's relative distraction this is not impossible. Quite where they might be is worthy of discussion
Also there is the question of whether Austria/Austria-Hungary will get in on the colonial act. OTL they had long-standing interests in the Red Sea, and also sent out a cruiser looking for a Chinese port at the end of the 1890s. I've built on the latter to give Austria a tranche of China in the carve-up, but elsewhere they may look for holdings.
Remember, this is an Austria that ends the 1850s with the Western Ukraine and by the end of the nineteenth century has acquired the Eastern Ukraine. It ceded Galicia back at the end of the 1850s to an independent Poland under Archduke Maximilian (of OTL Mexico fame) and gradually lost both Lombardy and Venetia to Italy. It also never acquired hegemony over Bosnia-Hercegovina. Whilst a lot of German emigration is drawn off into the Ukraine, probably seeing two major growth spurts, the energy to look outward is going to be there
After the accommodation with the Hungarians and Rudolf's accession to the imperial throne there may well be added impetus for this, not only in the case of China. Maybe Austria makes some claims in the Horn of Africa, maybe also in the Congo region ?
Will the Danes feel a need to keep the Nicobar Islands long-term, or perhaps Austria comes along with a good deal around 1900 ?
Grey Wolf
Given France's relative distraction this is not impossible. Quite where they might be is worthy of discussion
Also there is the question of whether Austria/Austria-Hungary will get in on the colonial act. OTL they had long-standing interests in the Red Sea, and also sent out a cruiser looking for a Chinese port at the end of the 1890s. I've built on the latter to give Austria a tranche of China in the carve-up, but elsewhere they may look for holdings.
Remember, this is an Austria that ends the 1850s with the Western Ukraine and by the end of the nineteenth century has acquired the Eastern Ukraine. It ceded Galicia back at the end of the 1850s to an independent Poland under Archduke Maximilian (of OTL Mexico fame) and gradually lost both Lombardy and Venetia to Italy. It also never acquired hegemony over Bosnia-Hercegovina. Whilst a lot of German emigration is drawn off into the Ukraine, probably seeing two major growth spurts, the energy to look outward is going to be there
After the accommodation with the Hungarians and Rudolf's accession to the imperial throne there may well be added impetus for this, not only in the case of China. Maybe Austria makes some claims in the Horn of Africa, maybe also in the Congo region ?
Will the Danes feel a need to keep the Nicobar Islands long-term, or perhaps Austria comes along with a good deal around 1900 ?
Grey Wolf
corourke said:
Spain is an interesting point because it more or less has a life of its own in the latter half of the nineteenth century, not needing many other events elsewhere in order to remain distracted. It has the ventures of the 1860s - the war with Peru and the attempt to take Santo Domingo back under colonial control, it has a long-running war against Cuban rebels which it finally wins only for it to break out again later, it has Isabella's overthrow, the search for a foreign king (which in this timeline would probably find different people to play the roles of OTL), and a final Carlist war. It has the death of Alphonso XII before the birth of Alphonso XIII who is thus king from the moment of his birth, the rule by the Queen Mother, the war with the USA in 1898 and the loss of much of its colonial empire.
I'm not seeing much opportunity in the relative weakness or disinterest of other powers for growth elsewhere.
Sweden is a different matter. I can see them making a big investment in Saint Barts in the Caribbean and being determined to hang onto it. Whether I can see them gaining colonies elsewhere is another matter.
Grey Wolf
corourke said:
I don't think there is going to be any kind of political UNION, the particularist feelings are far too great IMHO
However, an alliance, a trading league, a customs union all seem good possibilities
With Sweden ensonced in Finland, Kola and Karelia and with suzerainty over Estonia-plus (the South shore of the Gulf of Finland) economics certainly seems to be a good reason for this to occur.
Grey Wolf
Having kind of settled all that, what do the two decades of science and technology bring ? What are the simmering underlying tensions ? Are there any crises brewing ? Do the Bonapartists plot a return to power against Orleanist France ? I would assume that Napoleon IV made a marriage and had an heir in this timeline so no need to go looking at Victor for the claimant.
Grey Wolf
Grey Wolf
Hendryk
Banned
A question and an observation.
The question: with the scramble for Africa delayed a couple of decades, does this buy Ethiopia time enough to assert itself as a regional player and grab bits of Sudan, Congo, etc? One could imagine an alternate Ethiopian ruler seizing the opportunity of European countries otherwise engaged to pull an Ataturk and engage its country down the path of authoritarian modernization.
The observation: with China carved up between various powers just as the demographic crisis within its borders is at its highest, expect even larger numbers of Chinese than in OTL to outmigrate and settle either in other recently-conquered colonies of Europe, or in European countries themselves. And if the Europeans are smart they'll let them.
The question: with the scramble for Africa delayed a couple of decades, does this buy Ethiopia time enough to assert itself as a regional player and grab bits of Sudan, Congo, etc? One could imagine an alternate Ethiopian ruler seizing the opportunity of European countries otherwise engaged to pull an Ataturk and engage its country down the path of authoritarian modernization.
The observation: with China carved up between various powers just as the demographic crisis within its borders is at its highest, expect even larger numbers of Chinese than in OTL to outmigrate and settle either in other recently-conquered colonies of Europe, or in European countries themselves. And if the Europeans are smart they'll let them.
Grey Wolf said:
My thinking is (as stated in my previous post) was that the likely scenario would be what happened in OTL (Unless you decide on not having Teddy Roosevelt in the position of Under-Secretary of the Navy where he pulls the stunt of having Dewey sail from Hong Kong to Manila or the actual Secretary of the Navy wasn't sick at the time and does not order such a 'crazy scheme'. At the time most Americans, including the naval department, believed the Spanish had a powerful fleet that could even threaten East Coast cities, why risk the Far East squadron on a numerically superior foe in Manila. It was only later when actual combat began when it became apparent that most of the Spanish fleet was poorly maintained and poorly trained.).
However while it would make a lot of sense for the US to have a naval presence in the Far East they have to have a place to port in numbers. If all the ports are being scooped up by European powers (more of them in this ATL than OTL) and no one will let the US station military vessels in their ports for say longer than 24~48 hours and in substantial numbers the US is going to have a problem even getting to the Far East in numbers to challenge the poorly maintained Spanish fleet in Manila (let alone enough to 'conquer' the Philippines). Or if they are there they will be a scattered command flittering around from port to port as their fuel needs permit.
If a friendly power, say the UK like in OTL, allows them to base a naval squadron in one of their ports then I don't see why what happened in OTL would not happen (unless as mentioned above as TR not being able to order the fleet to move to Manila). If they don't then it could very well mean the US ends up with more Pacific Islands (perhaps they get the Marianas and the Carolines) while the Philippines remain Spanish, or maybe the US annexes Cuba instead.
Shadow Knight said:
This was the gist of what I was trying to say earlier...with the greater activity of the Europeans in the Far East the entire political dynamic there is changed. It is hardly likely that the same results will be obtained....
The risk of an accidental shooting war with one of the other European powers would be a possibility. the Smaller powers willhave had to have used a nearby base to launch there own grab for a slice of China....Spain or perhaps the netherlands would have been perfectly positioned to use this as tool for other political objectives in europe. Its possible that Spain will have the Active support of Prussia/Italy/or Austria. They may not oppose the US militarily but they will be active diplomatically.
I would suspect the US would be dissuaded from retaining the Phillipines in the name of preserving a better relationship with the Europeans in this region.
If China is being carved up by the Euros from 1894 onwards, then the policy of the "Open Door" has essentially been negated. there is no justification for a "huge" US Naval presence in the Far east given that this policy is not in effect. Their forces may still be present but probably smaller and more scattered, deployed probably out of the Br. ports or one of the few neutral treaty ports that might remain ( unlikely by 1898). Without the goal of sustaining an open China policy...why would the US acquire a string of ports accross the Pacific. Hence my rational for thinking that some kind of co-protectorate might still persist in Hawaii, at least in the beginning. The US may very well move to annex during the scramble in China though. Br. objections might occur, but they will be muted somewhat. as U. Sam will need to get something inthe Pacific, just to keep an eye on the Europeans in the region. This is not going to be apparent though until 1894 or later though.
Brushing up on some interesting tidbits on OTL Spanish American war and Hawaii (and other points in the Pacific).
Hawaii was annexed by the US on July 7th, 1898 several months after the Spanish American war started (May being the start of the war) so while I could see because the POD is much earlier that British interests in the island could be stronger, but with wars in Europe/Asia I'd imagine Hawaii would be rather far on list of top priorities for the British government. Therefore I believe that that outside events would probably not affect the course of US annexation of Hawaii all that much (the date could be moved up or pushed back a few years).
On June 21st the island of Guam surrendered to the USS Charleston (an funny little story of how that happened found at Wikipedia, which was on it's way to Manila).
Apparently since so many considered this war inevitable the US Navy had drawn up plans to invade the Philippines in 1897. Now how the changes in the situation in this ATL would affect this is up to debate.
Since this is Grey Wolf's timeline and it's his call on what actually happens. But here is what I see as to what would happen:
1) The situation in Hawaii is much the same as OTL, while there is more interest in Hawaii from the British. However distractions in Europe and Asia prevent them from doing anything to really stop the US. (How Britain protests this and if the annexation occurs even a year early could have interesting affects.)
I'd say that it might happen a bit earlier because of the situation happening in the Far East and the US not wanting to risk Britain taking it, but that's just my opinion. At this time the 'Open Door' policy is still possible, unlikely but possible. Also the American plantation owners may move a bit earlier to be annexed soon after their coup d'etat in 1893. With the war in China they may feel the need for formal US protection.
2) Due to increase propaganda (Hearst and other newspapers in the US using yellow journalism to the max here) a war with Spain over Cuba, etc. is being seen as inevitable. Therefore I see no reason as to why the US Navy would not draw up plans for war with Spain, not to mention the US Army looking for something to do since the Indian Wars are over with.
Now whether they would bother with planning to do something with the Philippines (as in OTL they did in 1897) would depend on the situation in the Far East and forces available. If for instance they have a sizeable force there then what happened in OTL will probably occur. However should they have less forces available in the Far East things could occur differently.
For instance let's assume the British response to the American annexation of the Hawaiian Islands (let's say it happened in 1894 the same year as the war in China and with Rump Russia is starting) is something along the lines of "Due to the war in China and the needs of our own military forces we cannot allow neutral nations/non-particpatory nations to station large numbers of military vessels in our ports in China. Individual ships may refuel but cannot stay for longer than 24~48 hours." Or something along those lines, subtle but a good way at making a protest when a nation is already at war and not wanting to antagonize someone else. Thus the US is worried but with only a few 'international ports' remaining and the rest of the powers occupying the rest of the ports there is not much they can do but sit on the side lines and wait worried. (As Grey Wolf posted trying to broker a peace deal but failing.)
So while Grey Wolf didn't mention when this war ends I'd imagine it does before the Spanish-American war in 1898, however I see no reason why the British response would have to end before then...they might need to pacify those newly acquired territories, and I don't see the other powers opening up their ports to a potential rival (Since he already indicated that they would be busy themselves.).
So we get a US that has an early Hawaiian annexation, but no real access to the Far East beyond a few scattered naval vessels protecting American merchant vessels from pirates, etc. Now I'd say the US Navy would plan (as they did in OTL) to do something with the Philippines in case of war with Spain, since it would seem inevitable, particularly to get back to a position in the Far East. I'd imagine that the plan would have even more vessles doing what the USS Charleston did to secure a supply line to get to the Philippines (moving in to take over Guam, etc.).
Now what eventually happens to the Philippines and the Pacific Islands is up to Grey Wolf (did the US successfully take it, did they even try it [Teddy Roosevelt not being able to see it done, etc.], or did they just end up with a few Pacific Islands and nothing else.). I look forward to seeing what he comes up with.
Hawaii was annexed by the US on July 7th, 1898 several months after the Spanish American war started (May being the start of the war) so while I could see because the POD is much earlier that British interests in the island could be stronger, but with wars in Europe/Asia I'd imagine Hawaii would be rather far on list of top priorities for the British government. Therefore I believe that that outside events would probably not affect the course of US annexation of Hawaii all that much (the date could be moved up or pushed back a few years).
On June 21st the island of Guam surrendered to the USS Charleston (an funny little story of how that happened found at Wikipedia, which was on it's way to Manila).
Apparently since so many considered this war inevitable the US Navy had drawn up plans to invade the Philippines in 1897. Now how the changes in the situation in this ATL would affect this is up to debate.
Since this is Grey Wolf's timeline and it's his call on what actually happens. But here is what I see as to what would happen:
1) The situation in Hawaii is much the same as OTL, while there is more interest in Hawaii from the British. However distractions in Europe and Asia prevent them from doing anything to really stop the US. (How Britain protests this and if the annexation occurs even a year early could have interesting affects.)
I'd say that it might happen a bit earlier because of the situation happening in the Far East and the US not wanting to risk Britain taking it, but that's just my opinion. At this time the 'Open Door' policy is still possible, unlikely but possible. Also the American plantation owners may move a bit earlier to be annexed soon after their coup d'etat in 1893. With the war in China they may feel the need for formal US protection.
2) Due to increase propaganda (Hearst and other newspapers in the US using yellow journalism to the max here) a war with Spain over Cuba, etc. is being seen as inevitable. Therefore I see no reason as to why the US Navy would not draw up plans for war with Spain, not to mention the US Army looking for something to do since the Indian Wars are over with.
Now whether they would bother with planning to do something with the Philippines (as in OTL they did in 1897) would depend on the situation in the Far East and forces available. If for instance they have a sizeable force there then what happened in OTL will probably occur. However should they have less forces available in the Far East things could occur differently.
For instance let's assume the British response to the American annexation of the Hawaiian Islands (let's say it happened in 1894 the same year as the war in China and with Rump Russia is starting) is something along the lines of "Due to the war in China and the needs of our own military forces we cannot allow neutral nations/non-particpatory nations to station large numbers of military vessels in our ports in China. Individual ships may refuel but cannot stay for longer than 24~48 hours." Or something along those lines, subtle but a good way at making a protest when a nation is already at war and not wanting to antagonize someone else. Thus the US is worried but with only a few 'international ports' remaining and the rest of the powers occupying the rest of the ports there is not much they can do but sit on the side lines and wait worried. (As Grey Wolf posted trying to broker a peace deal but failing.)
So while Grey Wolf didn't mention when this war ends I'd imagine it does before the Spanish-American war in 1898, however I see no reason why the British response would have to end before then...they might need to pacify those newly acquired territories, and I don't see the other powers opening up their ports to a potential rival (Since he already indicated that they would be busy themselves.).
So we get a US that has an early Hawaiian annexation, but no real access to the Far East beyond a few scattered naval vessels protecting American merchant vessels from pirates, etc. Now I'd say the US Navy would plan (as they did in OTL) to do something with the Philippines in case of war with Spain, since it would seem inevitable, particularly to get back to a position in the Far East. I'd imagine that the plan would have even more vessles doing what the USS Charleston did to secure a supply line to get to the Philippines (moving in to take over Guam, etc.).
Now what eventually happens to the Philippines and the Pacific Islands is up to Grey Wolf (did the US successfully take it, did they even try it [Teddy Roosevelt not being able to see it done, etc.], or did they just end up with a few Pacific Islands and nothing else.). I look forward to seeing what he comes up with.
Shadow Knight said:
Shanghai is being dealt with by the powers as an international port, at least for the moment. What its longer-term future holds is less certain, but during the 'Scramble for China' I envisage both Shanghai and Peking being under international control
Note - wasn't something like this intended for Constantinople after WW1 ?
Grey Wolf
Grey Wolf said:
I believe so, I know the British occupied Constantinople for a while after the war, but I believe with the treaty of Lausanne that the idea of Constantinople being a 'Free City' was dead.
I can see Shanghai and Peking as international cities, but I wonder if the other powers might object to a power stationing an entire naval squadron out of Shanghai (Peking being rather landlocked not making a very valuable port).
I'm perfectly happy to accept that Hawaii and the Spanish-American War follow a different course than OTL but end up with the same result. For example, the Filipino uprising will still occur and one can imagine the Americans supporting it. Again, if US warships are based in Hawaii and in Shanghai then a scratch squadron could be got together, perhaps not with the immediate intention of assaulting Manila but with some blockading intention. Things could escalate, the Spanish could even sortie...
Grey Wolf
Grey Wolf
Grey Wolf said:
Sounds cool with me. Perhaps a early version of the battle of Leyte Gulf.
I still like the idea of no major conflict 1904-1924, roughly speaking.
Oh, sure conflicts in the Chinese successor states, in Siberia, in North Africa, but nothing pitting great power against great power
The tensions rise and by the mid 1920s the world is a different place and ready to see loosed the tensions and rivalries built up in the ensuing years
Grey Wolf
Oh, sure conflicts in the Chinese successor states, in Siberia, in North Africa, but nothing pitting great power against great power
The tensions rise and by the mid 1920s the world is a different place and ready to see loosed the tensions and rivalries built up in the ensuing years
Grey Wolf
I am willing to concede of course, the probability of the US doing as well in the Pacific and East Asia as oour own TL even if it differs in the details. The changed military and political dynamics in the region make the probability of that occurrence far lower than the probability that they will not obtain a position in the Phillipines.
This is your answer to the post of course GW...so I can leave it up to you of course...but it would be helpful to understand exactly how Italy, Prussia and Austria made their plays for a slice of the pie as it were in China. They are going to have to have based their forces some where initially. The Spanish Phillipines are the logical choice, because of their proximity, as it would not leave any of them beholden to either the French, British or Japanese, when it came down to actually negotiating thier slices of China. It is in their political interest to seek a more independent political position from the outset.
With all the activity in China, Spain will almost certainly have gotten a bit jumpy regarding its position in the Phillipines, it is not inconceivable to presume that they have bolstered their defenses somewhat given the heightened military activity on the mainland. They will almost certainly be attaching strings guaranteeing their position in the Phillipines for the use of any bases there by anyone.
Thus I see it logical that their will be political relationships most assuredly between between Spain and the other European powers with respect to the Phillipines at the very least. Enough that the probablility of the US making a grab for Spain's far eastern possessions far less likely than that they actually try that gambit as OTL.
The Span-American War will almost assuredly occur for some reason as the US was looking for a reason to start one in OTL, but the objectives in this TL are likely to be far different from our own experience.
I can see an earlier annexation of Hawaii as espoused by SK. but that will tick the Brits... again adding to the negative political reaction if the US goes barging accross the Pacific into what the Europeans will be considering as their back yard.
How you can absolutely ignore the diplomatic repercussions escapes me. TR may have been able to get the gambit to go through in our experience, but I think the dice are against him in this alternate reality. However, encouraging annexationist sentiments in Cuba a la Texas would be far greater I think here...and US will probably be able to engineer a Cuban request for annexation.
I suspect that in this reality... Objectives towards eventual annexation of Cuba and PR would likely be the primary objectives in this ATL.
This is your answer to the post of course GW...so I can leave it up to you of course...but it would be helpful to understand exactly how Italy, Prussia and Austria made their plays for a slice of the pie as it were in China. They are going to have to have based their forces some where initially. The Spanish Phillipines are the logical choice, because of their proximity, as it would not leave any of them beholden to either the French, British or Japanese, when it came down to actually negotiating thier slices of China. It is in their political interest to seek a more independent political position from the outset.
With all the activity in China, Spain will almost certainly have gotten a bit jumpy regarding its position in the Phillipines, it is not inconceivable to presume that they have bolstered their defenses somewhat given the heightened military activity on the mainland. They will almost certainly be attaching strings guaranteeing their position in the Phillipines for the use of any bases there by anyone.
Thus I see it logical that their will be political relationships most assuredly between between Spain and the other European powers with respect to the Phillipines at the very least. Enough that the probablility of the US making a grab for Spain's far eastern possessions far less likely than that they actually try that gambit as OTL.
The Span-American War will almost assuredly occur for some reason as the US was looking for a reason to start one in OTL, but the objectives in this TL are likely to be far different from our own experience.
I can see an earlier annexation of Hawaii as espoused by SK. but that will tick the Brits... again adding to the negative political reaction if the US goes barging accross the Pacific into what the Europeans will be considering as their back yard.
How you can absolutely ignore the diplomatic repercussions escapes me. TR may have been able to get the gambit to go through in our experience, but I think the dice are against him in this alternate reality. However, encouraging annexationist sentiments in Cuba a la Texas would be far greater I think here...and US will probably be able to engineer a Cuban request for annexation.
I suspect that in this reality... Objectives towards eventual annexation of Cuba and PR would likely be the primary objectives in this ATL.
Grey Wolf said:
Well depending on how you actually finally decide on what the outcome of the Spanish Am. War should be this ATL...if a debt crisis occurs in Latin America somewhere ( and there is bound to be one somewhere.....)...you could get one in the early 1900's as well.
As far as I can see most naval forces that did not have a base of their own in the Far East were based at Chinese/Korean ports. I don't see why that woiuld change. In fact it seems most natural that as the 'Scramble for China' gets underway a one-month base at, say Ningpo, for an Italian cruiser would turn into a permanent base once ownership is claimed.
As for the aftermath of the Spanish-American War, I could see annexation more likely in Cuba and some sort of self-rule more likely in the Philipinnes
I don't want to get bogged down in huge details I can't find out about. I wanted to advance a general thrust of a timeline that would result in many differences, some similarities, and become interesting. Despite buying some 60 books over the Summer I don't have ANYTHING on the Spanish-American War and am not in a position to engage in such detailed discussions as everyone else. I think I probably only have Hough's ironclad battles book as even a potential source in a book
I guess that's why I keep trying to focus the discussion on what comes next
Grey Wolf
As for the aftermath of the Spanish-American War, I could see annexation more likely in Cuba and some sort of self-rule more likely in the Philipinnes
I don't want to get bogged down in huge details I can't find out about. I wanted to advance a general thrust of a timeline that would result in many differences, some similarities, and become interesting. Despite buying some 60 books over the Summer I don't have ANYTHING on the Spanish-American War and am not in a position to engage in such detailed discussions as everyone else. I think I probably only have Hough's ironclad battles book as even a potential source in a book
I guess that's why I keep trying to focus the discussion on what comes next
Grey Wolf
Well there was an insurgency in the Philippines so you can just reverse Cuba and the Philippines (Although the US papers are going to have to be rather silent...or even more twisted to get the US population to go along with crushing Cuban rebels who they just supported against Spain, but doable with a little imagination and pointing out the fact that 'most' Cubans want to join the US, etc.).
So that leaves us with a US annexed Cuba (With maybe an active insurgency in the interior for a few years, shorter than OTL insurgency in the Philippines because of the shorter supply lines to the US, only 90 miles away.), a Philippines that has home rule (with maybe independence in ~20 or so years with US military bases ala Guantanamo Bay although this time perhaps in Davao instead, Puerto Rico annexed but as in OTL practically forgotten and run by the Navy Department, and a smattering of Pacific Islands (Guam, Wake, etc.).
As AuroraBorealis pointed out the Spanish Philippines were probably for a time at least a good position for the smaller powers to use as a base to expand in China till they got their own ports. However, that could have passed by the time the US was at war with Spain (a difference of four years if the war with Spain began in 1898, as in OTL, and the scramble for China began in 1894).
Still the US may see some cooling of relations with these powers (Germany was a clandestine supporter of Spain in the war in OTL, IIRC, so Prussia might be also).
What would come next would be interesting. If I might propose something, perhaps the US during the scramble took a small port in China and made it a 'Free City' under its protection (like Shanghai, however locally run but with US troops and a 'advisor' to the Chinese governor). This port over the next few decades could become a nexus for Chinese fleeing European occupied China, the interior successor states, internal wars, etc. and make their way to a relatively free Philippines. This could give the Philippines a vital middle class (see Indonesia for an example) and depending on how many migrate a large Chinese minority or even slight majority that could be dreaming of 'liberating' China from the foreign oppressors (unlikely but hey crazy schemes exist, or maybe they just support a few scattered rebels in the occupied territories). It's just a thought but I think it could add something of interest. Of course the locals may come to resent this, but I'm sure so did the locals in Formosa (hmm perhaps the Philippines become a larger Taiwan?).
The US is going to be spending time digesting Cuba which would probably become a state within 30 years, as the first generation of Cubans that are native born citizens will begin to demand it. So you might see in the 20's the beginning of the statehood movement there. With the US's attention on the Carribbean Peurto Rico may not be abandoned and run by the Navy Department, but it's your call.
The Europeans are going to be busy digesting their acquisitions in China (and maybe Africa, I'm a little unsure of what you decided upon there), playing the successor states amongst themselves to prevent any rising to prominence (and playing them off each of the other powers to keep them busy too). Which should keep them all from fighting each other in Europe for a few decades (as long as no one power gets to uppity and tries something too outrageous).
Some questions: What is happening in Southern Germany? (A southern Confederacy, or is Prussia moving to bring them into the fold?)
How are the Ukrainians taking German immigrants moving in, and how is Austria dealing with the ones who don't like this so much?
What about the Swedish occupied areas? Might they be feeling a bit of tension in their newly acquired territories?
Japan may see the rise of the military making bids to take power earlier due to a heavy presence of European military assests in neighboring China. Which not only are within reach of their new possessions in China, Korea, etc., but within striking distance of the Home Islands also. And in such numbers that could instill a bit of paranoia.
Who got Formosa? Did Japan get it like in OTL, or did another power grab it? Perhaps the Dutch made a successful bid to retake it?
With no 'Mexican Adventure' I'm not sure how Mexico is going to turn out (other than no Cinco de Mayo parties for millions of Americans to have an excuse to get drunk). Maybe a fractured Mexico that collapsed into several waring states (although the US may prevent this to some extent) or just several statlets uneasily coexisting together and happy to have not been occupied by the US. Maybe Pancho Villa is a Mexican seeking to reunite Mexico.
Canada is going to be using all that gold in Alaska and the Yukon for something, infrastructure investments? It could lead to a economic boom for most of Canada that trickles over to the US a bit.
South America is probably going to chug along as in OTL.
Central Asia being technically under the suzeraity of the Ottomans (with a might bit of British support) could be rather peaceful, or it may have devolved into petty sultanates squabbling over borders or ethnic conflicts with the Turks trying to enforce some rule but not being all that successful.
Speaking of the Ottomans is their newly acquired territory in the Caucuses being all that peaceful?
So that leaves us with a US annexed Cuba (With maybe an active insurgency in the interior for a few years, shorter than OTL insurgency in the Philippines because of the shorter supply lines to the US, only 90 miles away.), a Philippines that has home rule (with maybe independence in ~20 or so years with US military bases ala Guantanamo Bay although this time perhaps in Davao instead, Puerto Rico annexed but as in OTL practically forgotten and run by the Navy Department, and a smattering of Pacific Islands (Guam, Wake, etc.).
As AuroraBorealis pointed out the Spanish Philippines were probably for a time at least a good position for the smaller powers to use as a base to expand in China till they got their own ports. However, that could have passed by the time the US was at war with Spain (a difference of four years if the war with Spain began in 1898, as in OTL, and the scramble for China began in 1894).
Still the US may see some cooling of relations with these powers (Germany was a clandestine supporter of Spain in the war in OTL, IIRC, so Prussia might be also).
What would come next would be interesting. If I might propose something, perhaps the US during the scramble took a small port in China and made it a 'Free City' under its protection (like Shanghai, however locally run but with US troops and a 'advisor' to the Chinese governor). This port over the next few decades could become a nexus for Chinese fleeing European occupied China, the interior successor states, internal wars, etc. and make their way to a relatively free Philippines. This could give the Philippines a vital middle class (see Indonesia for an example) and depending on how many migrate a large Chinese minority or even slight majority that could be dreaming of 'liberating' China from the foreign oppressors (unlikely but hey crazy schemes exist, or maybe they just support a few scattered rebels in the occupied territories). It's just a thought but I think it could add something of interest. Of course the locals may come to resent this, but I'm sure so did the locals in Formosa (hmm perhaps the Philippines become a larger Taiwan?).
The US is going to be spending time digesting Cuba which would probably become a state within 30 years, as the first generation of Cubans that are native born citizens will begin to demand it. So you might see in the 20's the beginning of the statehood movement there. With the US's attention on the Carribbean Peurto Rico may not be abandoned and run by the Navy Department, but it's your call.
The Europeans are going to be busy digesting their acquisitions in China (and maybe Africa, I'm a little unsure of what you decided upon there), playing the successor states amongst themselves to prevent any rising to prominence (and playing them off each of the other powers to keep them busy too). Which should keep them all from fighting each other in Europe for a few decades (as long as no one power gets to uppity and tries something too outrageous).
Some questions: What is happening in Southern Germany? (A southern Confederacy, or is Prussia moving to bring them into the fold?)
How are the Ukrainians taking German immigrants moving in, and how is Austria dealing with the ones who don't like this so much?
What about the Swedish occupied areas? Might they be feeling a bit of tension in their newly acquired territories?
Japan may see the rise of the military making bids to take power earlier due to a heavy presence of European military assests in neighboring China. Which not only are within reach of their new possessions in China, Korea, etc., but within striking distance of the Home Islands also. And in such numbers that could instill a bit of paranoia.
Who got Formosa? Did Japan get it like in OTL, or did another power grab it? Perhaps the Dutch made a successful bid to retake it?
With no 'Mexican Adventure' I'm not sure how Mexico is going to turn out (other than no Cinco de Mayo parties for millions of Americans to have an excuse to get drunk). Maybe a fractured Mexico that collapsed into several waring states (although the US may prevent this to some extent) or just several statlets uneasily coexisting together and happy to have not been occupied by the US. Maybe Pancho Villa is a Mexican seeking to reunite Mexico.
Canada is going to be using all that gold in Alaska and the Yukon for something, infrastructure investments? It could lead to a economic boom for most of Canada that trickles over to the US a bit.
South America is probably going to chug along as in OTL.
Central Asia being technically under the suzeraity of the Ottomans (with a might bit of British support) could be rather peaceful, or it may have devolved into petty sultanates squabbling over borders or ethnic conflicts with the Turks trying to enforce some rule but not being all that successful.
Speaking of the Ottomans is their newly acquired territory in the Caucuses being all that peaceful?
Wendell said:
I believe he is refering to Alaska and its vast wealth of natural resources (oil, gold, etc.).