Carving up Russia and China
- Thread starter Grey Wolf
- Start date
Wendell said:
IMHO the USA had been looking for that conflict and was pleased to finally find an excuse to have it
I very much doubt the USA would want a war with Britain
You're probably right in that some sections of the Congress would be all-out for blood, but saner views would prevail
Grey Wolf
corourke
Donor
Grey Wolf said:
I think it would be interesting if some of the more minor powers got into Africa while the big guys were tied up in China -- I'm thinking Spain, Italy, Portugal will definately end up with more than OTL. As for ATL powers, I could see Sweden and the Netherlands easily gaining colonies. Maybe Denmark, too.
On the topic of Sweden and Denmark, specifically a strengthened Sweden -- might we see a united Scandinavia in this timeline? I could see Sweden siding with Denmark in the Schleswig crisis perhaps leading to closer cooperation between the two countries, perhaps an alliance. When Russia seeks to regain a warm water port in the Baltic, Sweden and Denmark cooperate again. Where could it go from there?
Wendell said:
Well lets see.... the British aquisition of Alaska is an out growth of the Crimean War. Britain was allied to France there, they could very well act to defend Britain, as they are a party to the causes of the conflict with the Americans.
Again....the Monroe doctrine was policy of the Americans, but one never endorsed by any European power, and hardly likely in 1860. The Russians owned Alaska and are quite within their rights to cede it to whoever they like.
At least as far as any Europeans are concerned.
As to war with Britain over this...its largely unlikely, Britain and the north are essentially moving on convergent paths ( with a few blips along the way)
It s not like they are ceding it to Japan or Germany or even France.
There will be hotheads, but saner minds will prevail as the damage that Britain, even without the aid of France, could inflict on the US would be substantial. Does any US leader really want that over Alaska....a terr. that they have at this time, no ties to politically at all, and risk damaging for generations the good will of the two leading west European states.
Look again. The North gets a reason to put in place tariffs on British goods without much fuss from Dixie. This will "help" New England. France won't do anything, due to concerns about Sardinia and Prussia. The Americans might even get the South Americans in on this war. Much of Canada is sparsae, and was more so then. Planners at the time would see it as a possible gain. Frankly, if the Americans don't do it, then the Monroe Doctrine is meaningless to them, or anyone else, for that matter.AuroraBorealis said:
Wendell said:
Okay well I am not going to post any more in response because your obviously one who thinks the US would go to war with just about anyone, regardless of consequences over just about any flimsy excuse it can find, when in fact that is not true in the case of Britain or France as you are almost certainly aware, but simply ignoring. For that to occur the US would need a vested interest. Simply healing a percieved rift between north and south...if anything it will make those divisions greater.
However for the purposes of discussion only, should this have occurred it would distort and make impossible any of the future events that are supposed to occur and therefore irrelevant to the original post. The Brits and the other Euros would almost certainly respond to such a flagrant agressive move by the US by focusing their attns in NAm. instead of elsewhere to thwart the agressive tendencies of this US rather than keeping Russia down on the mat, much less contemplating any "Scramble for China". They would almost certainly respond with a policy of containment that would make this USA totally unrecognizable from our own experience as they will almost certainly have to develop a seige mentality.
Why would they do this 40 years after the fact when undoubtably many Brits or Canadians, who have no interest in becoming Americans have undoubtably moved there instead of Americans. Brit/Can capital will have replaced American in Alaska.Wendell said:
Wendell said:
Why would they throw U. Sam a scrap when the "peaceful carving up of the world has not occurred yet" The cession of Alaska was in the aftermath of the Crimean war....in the 1850's, the "carving" as you describe it is not until the '90's. As to 1860 and uniting north and south....the US does not have a huge standing army and its Navy is far inferior to the the RN. By the time the US has mustered an Army to invade Canada in Force... A Canadian militia and Troops from Britain will have arrived to bolster the defense. Contrary to what you have suggested i think the French would almost certainly support the Brits, with resources to fight the war and at the very least with naval support.
Again, the potential backlash, even in the event of a successful campaign ( which is doubtful at that time) would be horrendous for the US. The Isolation it will create will be difficult if not impossible to overcome.
I am sorry, but no sane politician in the US is even going to entertain this idea when their direct interests are not even involved.
should be a different thread i think....
Ah ...but that is not the subject of this thread, the carving up of China and Russia is ( the eastern hemisphere). Your suggestions would really make that impossible, and deserves its own separate thread in a separate new thread as an alternate POD of its own....
Wendell said:
Ah ...but that is not the subject of this thread, the carving up of China and Russia is ( the eastern hemisphere). Your suggestions would really make that impossible, and deserves its own separate thread in a separate new thread as an alternate POD of its own....
I have
However, I have ridden in several circa 1928 automobiles. They are slow, rough, unstable, and the windows break easily. They are hard to start and require the complicated process of "double clutching" to shift gears. You can tell, however, that many of them were designed with luxury (or the illusion of luxury) in mind with the wood panelling, soft cushioned seats, and polished metal trim.
Now lighting a room. If you are talking about a kerosine or coal oil lamp, they are easy enough to light, but they don't provide much illumination and have to be constantly adjusted when the wick burns down. They also stink and leave a nice soot on the inside of the lamp. Natural light was much more important in those days, windows were vital but expensive. Often a measure one’s wealth was often how many windows you had, or chimneys for that matter as having multiple heating stoves in larger houses was a must.
I encourage anyone you wants to learn more about how historical artifacts to visit living history museums in your area.
Having worked in a living history museum, I have done those things. Although I’m dying to tell you about town planning laws of that era, unfortunately my experience with a 1920s street in Western Canada doesn't really apply to your situation.Grey Wolf said:
However, I have ridden in several circa 1928 automobiles. They are slow, rough, unstable, and the windows break easily. They are hard to start and require the complicated process of "double clutching" to shift gears. You can tell, however, that many of them were designed with luxury (or the illusion of luxury) in mind with the wood panelling, soft cushioned seats, and polished metal trim.
Now lighting a room. If you are talking about a kerosine or coal oil lamp, they are easy enough to light, but they don't provide much illumination and have to be constantly adjusted when the wick burns down. They also stink and leave a nice soot on the inside of the lamp. Natural light was much more important in those days, windows were vital but expensive. Often a measure one’s wealth was often how many windows you had, or chimneys for that matter as having multiple heating stoves in larger houses was a must.
I encourage anyone you wants to learn more about how historical artifacts to visit living history museums in your area.
corourke said:
Regarding Africa, I am thinking that there would be surviving settled Arab states in the East. As well as possessions of Oman/Zanzibar and the Somali sultanates, it should be noted that Stanley passed through a settled Arab state in the Eastern Congo. This was a fairly new phenomenon and Europeans who went there commented on how civilised it was in many ways. If the British and French and Prussian claims are restricted to ports and IMMEDIATE hinterland then the East above Mozambique is largely Arab.
A note about the South, is that the Boers kept trying to expand their territory, into Bechuanaland and into Zulu-held land. Since Britain is less involved in the European theatre than other powers, and less likely to be distracted then they retain the freedom of action to prevent this as per OTL. However, one of their strategic imperatives has been removed - this was to prevent the Boers from expanding and linking up with German-held South-West Afrika. With Prussia's claims likely limited to the coast here, Britain itself could expand into OTL Southern Namibia and may well be less worried about Boer expansion. Alternatively, they may counter it by expanding their own sphere of influence over South-West Afrika, restricting the Prussians to their coastal enclave and taking the interior for Britain
Grey Wolf
Further about Africa I think finding a plausible path that is different from OTL is the most interesting choice to make here.
Portugal in OTL claimed a 'rose-coloured strip' across Southern Africa from Angola to Mozambique. However, British policy was to sever this in the centre, and other powers nibbled away at Portugal's claims. It wasn't until after 1900 that Portugal secured the interior of Angola for itself instead of having it as a claim/domination. Mozambique IIRC was a patchwork of different autonomous colonies run as companies, though finding information on this is very difficult.
Portugal also claimed the Southern Congo region, and without a Berlin Conference of 1884 and without both the agreement to Leopold II of Belgium and the outlining of the 'Hinterland Policy' the powers on the ground would have a stronger position. I can still see Belgium gaining a foothold - after all, the search for colonies had been a Belgian goal for a long time. But Portugal expanding over the Southern Congo would be a definite possibility.
In the North of the OTL Congo, I envisage that the Anglo-Ottoman accord would be working really well here. Equatoria was an Ottoman province, connected to the Sudan and would continue. The independent emirates etc in the Eastern Sahara would continue as well, as no country has any imperative to advance that far into the interior.
Mainly this leaves the Western coast from Morocco down to the Congo to look at in any detail. This is where we would find additional coaling stations, these expanding into coastal colonies etc. IIRC all of the Netherlands, Denmark and Prussia (as a legacy of Brandenburg) have trading posts, or claims to old trading posts, on the West coast which runs in OTL from Senegal to Nigeria. Somewhere I had a website bookmarked that outlined when these countries formally gave up their claims. I think in some cases it was quite late, but theoretical only by then. In this timeline, maybe as corourke suggests it would be a different matter entirely
Grey Wolf
Portugal in OTL claimed a 'rose-coloured strip' across Southern Africa from Angola to Mozambique. However, British policy was to sever this in the centre, and other powers nibbled away at Portugal's claims. It wasn't until after 1900 that Portugal secured the interior of Angola for itself instead of having it as a claim/domination. Mozambique IIRC was a patchwork of different autonomous colonies run as companies, though finding information on this is very difficult.
Portugal also claimed the Southern Congo region, and without a Berlin Conference of 1884 and without both the agreement to Leopold II of Belgium and the outlining of the 'Hinterland Policy' the powers on the ground would have a stronger position. I can still see Belgium gaining a foothold - after all, the search for colonies had been a Belgian goal for a long time. But Portugal expanding over the Southern Congo would be a definite possibility.
In the North of the OTL Congo, I envisage that the Anglo-Ottoman accord would be working really well here. Equatoria was an Ottoman province, connected to the Sudan and would continue. The independent emirates etc in the Eastern Sahara would continue as well, as no country has any imperative to advance that far into the interior.
Mainly this leaves the Western coast from Morocco down to the Congo to look at in any detail. This is where we would find additional coaling stations, these expanding into coastal colonies etc. IIRC all of the Netherlands, Denmark and Prussia (as a legacy of Brandenburg) have trading posts, or claims to old trading posts, on the West coast which runs in OTL from Senegal to Nigeria. Somewhere I had a website bookmarked that outlined when these countries formally gave up their claims. I think in some cases it was quite late, but theoretical only by then. In this timeline, maybe as corourke suggests it would be a different matter entirely
Grey Wolf
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Looking at this
http://www.zum.de/whkmla/region/westafrica/gcdut.html
We can see that the Netherlands retained the rights to trading posts in Ghana until 1872 when it ceded/sold them to Britain
In 1872, the Netherlands ceded (sold) it's property and claims on the Gold Coast to Britain, in return for Britain conceding the Sultanate of Aceh to the Netherlands (Sumatra Treatise). The price for Elmina and the Dutch property/claims was 47,000 Guilders.
It could certainly be interesting if Britain retains Aceh...
I was also thinking that the 1890 war may well weaken the Dutch and we don't see them expand over all of the East Indies, so maybe the divergence starts earlier ?
Grey Wolf
http://www.zum.de/whkmla/region/westafrica/gcdut.html
We can see that the Netherlands retained the rights to trading posts in Ghana until 1872 when it ceded/sold them to Britain
In 1872, the Netherlands ceded (sold) it's property and claims on the Gold Coast to Britain, in return for Britain conceding the Sultanate of Aceh to the Netherlands (Sumatra Treatise). The price for Elmina and the Dutch property/claims was 47,000 Guilders.
It could certainly be interesting if Britain retains Aceh...
I was also thinking that the 1890 war may well weaken the Dutch and we don't see them expand over all of the East Indies, so maybe the divergence starts earlier ?
Grey Wolf
It doesn't look too good for old Brandenburg claims
http://www.gross-friedrichsburg.de/history.html
Ceded to the Dutch in the eighteenth century
Of course, for the Prussian Empire this probably is not too much of a problem as it has the foundation of the OTL colonies, treaties etc - e.g. a Lutheran mission in South-West Afrika, the treaties of Karl Peters elsewhere, though here I doubt he gets anything like what he did in OTL, and even in OTL it took the Berlin Conference to make anything of them. Here, I would see for example Tanganyika see only a small German colony on the coast.
Togo, Kamerun also seem potential targets for Prussian colonial expansion. With changes elsewhere, though, we would still see some of the OTL French and even British colonies remaining independent in this area - e.g. Dahomey and the Ashanti, the final conquests of which would be over-taken by events in Europe or China. Togo is thus likely to be a more coastal colony for Prussia, whilst Kamerun certainly would be slimmer.
Grey Wolf
http://www.gross-friedrichsburg.de/history.html
Ceded to the Dutch in the eighteenth century
Of course, for the Prussian Empire this probably is not too much of a problem as it has the foundation of the OTL colonies, treaties etc - e.g. a Lutheran mission in South-West Afrika, the treaties of Karl Peters elsewhere, though here I doubt he gets anything like what he did in OTL, and even in OTL it took the Berlin Conference to make anything of them. Here, I would see for example Tanganyika see only a small German colony on the coast.
Togo, Kamerun also seem potential targets for Prussian colonial expansion. With changes elsewhere, though, we would still see some of the OTL French and even British colonies remaining independent in this area - e.g. Dahomey and the Ashanti, the final conquests of which would be over-taken by events in Europe or China. Togo is thus likely to be a more coastal colony for Prussia, whilst Kamerun certainly would be slimmer.
Grey Wolf
Here is a website about European claims etc in West Africa :-
http://www.geocities.com/Athens/Styx/6497/ghana.html
This appears to show the different colonies that make up Mozambique :-
http://www.colonialvoyage.com/PpossAf.html
This is the similar chronological list of Dutch possessions :-
http://www.colonialvoyage.com/NlpoAf.html
It would seem that historical claims still viable in the later nineteenth century are limited to Ghana for the Netherlands
We have the Danes here :-
http://www.colonialvoyage.com/DanishP.html
Whilst not African but Indian it is interesting to note that Denmark does not cede her rights over the Nicobar Islands until 1868. It is possible with the different events of the 1860s in this timeline that the Danes do not do this...
The Danish West African rights appear to have been ceded in 1850, so before the POD here and unlikely to be resurrected in that form
Grey Wolf
http://www.geocities.com/Athens/Styx/6497/ghana.html
This appears to show the different colonies that make up Mozambique :-
http://www.colonialvoyage.com/PpossAf.html
This is the similar chronological list of Dutch possessions :-
http://www.colonialvoyage.com/NlpoAf.html
It would seem that historical claims still viable in the later nineteenth century are limited to Ghana for the Netherlands
We have the Danes here :-
http://www.colonialvoyage.com/DanishP.html
Whilst not African but Indian it is interesting to note that Denmark does not cede her rights over the Nicobar Islands until 1868. It is possible with the different events of the 1860s in this timeline that the Danes do not do this...
The Danish West African rights appear to have been ceded in 1850, so before the POD here and unlikely to be resurrected in that form
Grey Wolf