Carving up Charles II's Spain

During the the War of Devolution, Louis XIV and Leopold I signed a treaty which would partition Spain in the event of the death of Charles II (the event which OTL started the War of the Spanish Succession). France claimed the France-Comte, the Spanish Netherlands, Navarre, and Naples-Sicily. Leopold would receive Milan, Spain proper, and Spain's colonies. Historically, however, Leopold refused to ratify the treaty, fearing worse relations with Spain.
What if Charles falls terminally ill at the time of the treaty, Leopold goes through with it, and Charles dies a few months into the war? How do the Hapsburgs deal with their newly-acquired colonies? How smooth is the transition in ownership of Spain? How does a French Two Sicilies affect French and European politics?
 

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It has to be said that Spain was governed pretty badly during the last years under the Spanish Habsburgs. Almost any government would be an improvement.
 
France is more secure in the Mediterranean and Atlantic, and Spain is ruled by the more competent Austrian Habsburgs. The biggest impact I see for France is the Netherlands, which allows them to relentlessly troll the Dutch United Provinces in a way that the Spanish could not. If France reunites the Netherlands through conquest, we may see them performing better at sea against the British, and gaining much wealth from Dutch colonial posessions. Austrian Habsburgs in Spain would likely mean good things, with Spain remaining more of a great power and less of a disaster zone. Depending on how their relations with France form up, they might be able to hold the majority of their colonies. If they go to war with France early, I'd say that they are screwed, but if they cultivate better relations with France, I can see them consolidating some degree of control in Spain, although a permenant union is probably out of the question.
 
How easily would England et al. allow the French to conquer the Dutch Republic? Such an event would allow the French navy and economy a large boost, and England was already afraid of the Dutch controlling world trade. Furthermore, the freedom-minded Dutch, not thirty years after their recognition by Spain, are not about to give up their sovereignty.

What effects would be seen on Spanish American colonies? The Hapsburgs are not known for their naval prowess, and England OTL made more than one attempt to grab Argentina. Revolts in Spanish South America were also common in the mid-seventeenth century, so perhaps one or more of those could gain some traction?
 
The point is rather moot don't you think as Spain and the Maritime powers did force the French to the negotiating table without any action taken by the empire, who could hardly act against their relations in Spain itself I would add, even if they were to accept the French proposition.

If France had won you have something, they didn't and your POD does not provide for it to happen since it does not in any manner affect the actions of Spain and the Maritime powers, who by themselves defeated France. Therefore there would be little or no change from OTL.

However since Charles dies a few months in, hmm this is before the end of the War with Portugal in Feb '68? the The emporer may withdraw Spain from the War, recognize the French claims which originally on the outset of hostilities only claimed a quarter of the Duchy of Luxembourg and a portion of the County of Burgundy and continue the War against Portugal? Union between the two crowns is out of course so it will probably devolve on two separate lines of the house of Hapsburg ( Joseph Austria and Empire, Charles Spain, interesting possibilities there if both only have daughters yet again). With support from both France and Austria, Spain can probably finally crush the Braganza rebellion, the Dutch and the English will probably gobble up a few mor e former Portuguese possessions.
 
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The point is rather moot don't you think as Spain and the Maritime powers did force the French to the negotiating table without any action taken by the empire, who could hardly act against their relations in Spain itself I would add, even if they were to accept the French proposition.

If France had won you have something, they didn't and your POD does not provide for it to happen since it does not in any manner affect the actions of Spain and the Maritime powers, who by themselves defeated France. Therefore there would be little or no change from OTL.

The War of Devolution's outcome has little bearing on what Leopold does when Charles dies.

Irrelevant of whether the French win or lose, the PoD supposes that Charles dies and Leopold, as the Hapsburg with the strongest claim, inherits Spain. Bound by the treaty (and we'll assume he's a man of his word), Leopold grants the territories which France had claimed. If all of Occitania had been completely annexed by Spain, Leopold would still have the authority to grant France sovereignty over Milan, Navarre, and Naples. Which seems like a fairly good price to pay for not having to fight a war of succession as OTL.
 
The War of Devolution's outcome has little bearing on what Leopold does when Charles dies.

Irrelevant of whether the French win or lose, the PoD supposes that Charles dies and Leopold, as the Hapsburg with the strongest claim, inherits Spain. Bound by the treaty (and we'll assume he's a man of his word), Leopold grants the territories which France had claimed. If all of Occitania had been completely annexed by Spain, Leopold would still have the authority to grant France sovereignty over Milan, Navarre, and Naples. Which seems like a fairly good price to pay for not having to fight a war of succession as OTL.

Timing of Charles death would be key as it would determine whether the English form their alliance with the Dutch or the French. and whether the War against Portugal is likely to continue. The Austrian Hapsburgs though could just as easily give up on Portugal as well.

Naples and Sicily will almost certainly be spun off at some point to a junior Bourbon line. For the same reason that a Spanish Austrian permanent union cannot last neither can a French Neapolitan one.
 
Naples/Sicily will be highly exposed in any future war between the Bourbons and the Hapsburgs which could still occur, aqs their will be courtiers in both Vienna and madrid that will argue that the Crown has sacrificed much to gain peace with France and and any future conflict b/n the maritime powers and France the Hapsburgs and most definitely Spain will gain terr. back if they should choose to. much as they did OTL in later years of course. Spain is still not a power past its prime but very much at its height. Argueably divested of its interests in the netherlands allows it to focus on the NW. colonies and the med. if need be.

One can easily see Naple/Sicily returned back to Spain or devolved to a cadet line of the house of Bourbon ( say the the senior Orleans branch as a compromise)
 
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