Carter gets a Second Term

What if Jimmy Carter had gotten a second term as President? (ignore the how)

Carter's term in hindsight is a fascinating one. He was safe-legal-and rare on abortion, was the first evangelical president, started the trends towards deregulation, started the military buildup Reagan was known for, and was a bit of a deficit hawk. He was liberal/populist on issues like healthcare and the environment and he created the Department of Education, but he definitely comes off as more of a New South Centrist like Bill Clinton than a tax and spend liberal.

Could we have seen an earlier DLC-ization of the party if Carter got a second term?

Who gets the nomination in 1984? VPs weren't seen as heir-apparents yet, so Mondale may not have it in the bag. Baker or Dole looks likely for the GOP in 1984.
 
The problem was that he couldn't even cooperate with the Democrats who controlled both the House and the Senate.
He was rigid in many of his views and unable to compromise; so he was seen as ineffective.
He had almost no major legislative accomplishments.
Add in the Iran hostage crisis and the resulting rescue fiasco, Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and the 1979 Energy crisis and it showed that he was out of his depth.
Great as a governor, terrible as a president.
 
. . . and was a bit of a deficit hawk. . .
The recovery in '83 and '84 isn't as big as OTL because Carter doesn't deficit spend like Reagan. All the same, it is a recovery and Carter gets credit for it.

Jimmy Carter is remembered as a steady eddie type who stayed the course during some difficult times. Even though a goodly number of his fellow citizens also remember him as a complicator.
 
But if Carter is reelected, what does this mean for the Democratic Party and for 1984?
If the economy is great in Carter's 2nd term, Walter Mondale gets elected in '84. Same with Mondale, if the economy is fine, is not seen as a weak president, get's reelected in '88.

As for the Democratic Party, I would say ideologically they are Moderate to Liberal. Older generations would have a higher opinion of them possibly due to successful Carter & Mondale presidency's.
 
If Carter somehow gets re elected despite the Iranian revolution and Hostage Crisis (these being butterflied are the likeliest way to get him re elected), Iran probably releases the hostages by Inauguration day, if not sooner as I doubt they were dumb enough to drag it out any longer just for the sake of humiliating Carter (supposedly humiliating Carter was the reason they waited till Reagan's Inauguration to release them, not because they feared Reagan). No '81 tax cut, a defense build up still happens, it was already started by Carter, Reagan just took all the credit for it OTL, although in TTL it isn't as large as Carter isn't going to be wasteful in his build up like Reagan was (ex, SDI). The Budget is in better shape as a result. The '81-'82 recession still happens to as it was mainly Volcker's Fed policies that caused it in the first place. The '82 midterms are a Republican year, that sees the Dem Majority in the House reduced and sees the GOP gain a bigger Senate Majority than it did in 1980 OTL. 1983 and 1984 see a recovery, but one that is weaker than OTL. Carter gets credit none the less. With regards to the Cold War, the early '80s TTL with Carter at the helm are far less scary than they were with Reagan, but are still tense none the less and the Soviet Union will likely still be in Afghanistan. With all of this I say a Republican, Howard Baker or George H.W. Bush (the former being more likely than the later) narrowly defeats Mondale in 1984 and likely get re elected in 1988. Carter's standing in history is much better than OTL, as he is remembered as an average President that served the Country through two difficult terms and still managed to leave it better off than he found it. A Republican elected in 1984 is likely to have a historical standing (and public standing) somewhere between Reagan's and HW Bush's OTL.
 

samcster94

Banned
If Carter somehow gets re elected despite the Iranian revolution and Hostage Crisis (these being butterflied are the likeliest way to get him re elected), Iran probably releases the hostages by Inauguration day, if not sooner as I doubt they were dumb enough to drag it out any longer just for the sake of humiliating Carter (supposedly humiliating Carter was the reason they waited till Reagan's Inauguration to release them, not because they feared Reagan). No '81 tax cut, a defense build up still happens, it was already started by Carter, Reagan just took all the credit for it OTL, although in TTL it isn't as large as Carter isn't going to be wasteful in his build up like Reagan was (ex, SDI). The Budget is in better shape as a result. The '81-'82 recession still happens to as it was mainly Volcker's Fed policies that caused it in the first place. The '82 midterms are a Republican year, that sees the Dem Majority in the House reduced and sees the GOP gain a bigger Senate Majority than it did in 1980 OTL. 1983 and 1984 see a recovery, but one that is weaker than OTL. Carter gets credit none the less. With regards to the Cold War, the early '80s TTL with Carter at the helm are far less scary than they were with Reagan, but are still tense none the less and the Soviet Union will likely still be in Afghanistan. With all of this I say a Republican, Howard Baker or George H.W. Bush (the former being more likely than the later) narrowly defeats Mondale in 1984 and likely get re elected in 1988. Carter's standing in history is much better than OTL, as he is remembered as an average President that served the Country through two difficult terms and still managed to leave it better off than he found it. A Republican elected in 1984 is likely to have a historical standing (and public standing) somewhere between Reagan's and HW Bush's OTL.
Could Dole do this role?
 
Would Mondale necessarily be the Democratic nominee in 1984?

The norm wasn't yet set for a Vice President to be the heir apparent. I could see Jerry Brown (if he doesn't run or doesn't lose in 1982) running. Brown, Clinton, and Hart come to mind as prospects.


I don't see HW getting the nod in 1984. He hasn't held elected office since 1971 and hasn't held any office since January 1977.

Mondale's a crummy campaigner. Odds are the GOP can squeak out a win against him in 1984.
 
Could Dole do this role?
He did horribly in 1980 and hurt Ford in 1976. Baker would be Senate Majority Leader and Bush's role as running mate was more recent than Dole's and he didn't and probably wouldn't have in TTL hurt Reagan. So I doubt it. Plus, with Reagan losing, I doubt the GOP would nominate a Conservative just four years after and if they did Kemp and even Pete du Pont would be more likely than Dole to get the nod.
 
Would Mondale necessarily be the Democratic nominee in 1984?

The norm wasn't yet set for a Vice President to be the heir apparent. I could see Jerry Brown (if he doesn't run or doesn't lose in 1982) running. Brown, Clinton, and Hart come to mind as prospects.


I don't see HW getting the nod in 1984. He hasn't held elected office since 1971 and hasn't held any office since January 1977.

Mondale's a crummy campaigner. Odds are the GOP can squeak out a win against him in 1984.
Nixon ran in 60 and Humphrey ran in 68. If that norm wasn't set yet, Mondale in 1984 TTL (as Bush arguably did in 1988 OTL) would've sealed the deal, and a stronger, more popular (even if slightly) Carter would work behind the scenes to put Mondale over the top in TTL. Granted, Mondale wouldn't go without a primary challenge from someone like Hart.
 
With a better environment for Democrats in 1980, Mike McCormack is able to win re-election and formalize the Pro-Fusion lobbying force in Congress he was in the process of building IOTL; fusion funding will probably remain strong throughout the 1980s. The Center for Fusion Engineering will be created, while funds will continue to be made available for Princeton’s Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) to operate. Their Compact Ignition Tokamak (CIT) also will likely get built, as will Oak Ridge's Elmo Bumpy Torus preliminary design for a 1200 MW magnetic fusion power plant while Lawrence Livermore Laboratory’s Mirror Fusion Test Reactor will actually get a chance to function instead of being shutdown on the day it was supposed to open in 1986. Once you get into the 1990s with all of this funding, sheer bureaucratic inertia will begin to kick in and help carry Fusion over the finish line while continuous successful results will help keep public support for the project. Around 2000 the break-even point will have been surpassed and the first electric generating station should come online as stipulated in the Magnetic Fusion Energy Engineering Act of 1980 and based on 1976 projections by the ERDA.
 
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