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Imagine for a minute that the Shah doesn't enter the US for medical treatment in late 1979. This could be because Carter and his people persuade him to go to Switzerland instead (the Iranians would be unlikely to fear a plot by the dastardly Swiss:rolleyes:), or the Shah dies of a heart attack while he's in the Bahamas or Mexico, or something.

Whatever the reason, the result is that come 1980 there is no Iranian Hostage Crisis to captivate the nation and eat away at Carter's approval. How would the presidential election be affected? Even with no hostage crisis, there would still be the economic problems of late 1970s America, and as President, Carter still gets the blame, no doubt. Reagan would still be able to use his "Are you better off now than 4 years ago" line in the debate. It would still be an uphill climb, but would Carter nevertheless have a shot at re-election?

Personally, I think Carter would still lose, but his loss might resemble more that of Bush Sr's loss in 1992 than the lopsided blowout of OTL 1980. Here is my thought about how the electoral map might look like in a "No hostage crisis" election:

1980



Ronald Reagan/George H.W. Bush 49.3%, 369 EV
Jimmy Carter/Walter Mondale 43.0%, 169 EV
John B. Anderson/Patrick J. Lucey 6.1%, 0 EV

Regardless of whether Carter actually wins or just loses by a smaller margin, how would the congressional election be affected? Might Reagan's coat-tails be blunted enough that the Democrats would retain the Senate? After all, in both the '68 and '72 elections Democrats kept control of Congress despite the defeats of their presidential nominees.
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