Carriers at Pearl

Yes, another Pearl Harbor thread.

Let's say *waves hands furiously* that the Enterprise had been a little bit early in arriving at Pearl, and the Lexington a bit late in leaving, so both carriers are docked on Dec. 7.

First question: is this plausible? Or am I a complete idiot for even suggesting this?

Second question: would the Japanese attack be more, or less effective with the two flattops to hit? Sure, they'd both get hammered, but what would be spared in their place? Maybe one or two of the battleships gets off without being sunk? And, if Nagumo had foreknowledge of this, how would his plans be affected?

Third question: let's say the Enterprise is damaged severely and the Lexington is sunk. How does this affect the war in the Pacific? It's unlikely the Japanese will prevail, even with the increased loss, but what will the lack of carriers (except for the one in San Diego) do? What tactics get changed? How much longer does this make the Pacific war, and what effects will it have on the major battles that will still play out (i.e. Midway)?
 
Unless they are hit like Arizona or Oklahoma (iirc those two ships were the only ones not salvaged) and totaly destroyed they would be sunk in shallow waters and they would be given top priority to repair.
 

Krall

Banned
I can't see this having much of a difference, really. The carriers are repairable, and the US can and will build many more.
 
I can't see this having much of a difference, really. The carriers are repairable, and the US can and will build many more.
Indeed, even if the Japanese wins at Midway it still does not matter, the first ones of the Essexclass are still under construction and will come eventually.
 
The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor will be more effective if the carriers were hit in the first two waves

A third assault wave on the island was not launched because the American carriers were not accounted for. Since they are now out of action, a third wave can hit the fuel stores ..... or perhaps a third wave is directed at ships not hit and a fourth wave at the fuel storage containers.

Short term, one would have to wonder what would happen to Doolittle's raid, the American check of the Japanese in the Coral Sea. Would there even be a naval battle involving US carriers against Japanese carriers in 1942 at Midway?

Would the US go to a Japan first stance?

Long term , Japanese loose
 
Indeed, even if the Japanese wins at Midway it still does not matter, the first ones of the Essexclass are still under construction and will come eventually.
Exactly. These kinds of scenario's always come down to the same thing: even if the US loses all the carriers it had in 1941/42, as soon as 1943 comes around, the Japanese are going to be blasted out of the water.
 

CalBear

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The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor will be more effective if the carriers were hit in the first two waves

A third assault wave on the island was not launched because the American carriers were not accounted for. Since they are now out of action, a third wave can hit the fuel stores ..... or perhaps a third wave is directed at ships not hit and a fourth wave at the fuel storage containers.

Short term, one would have to wonder what would happen to Doolittle's raid, the American check of the Japanese in the Coral Sea. Would there even be a naval battle involving US carriers against Japanese carriers in 1942 at Midway?

Would the US go to a Japan first stance?

Long term , Japanese loose


There WAS no third wave. Not in the planning, not in the discussions about the planning. The mission was to disable the Pacific Fleet. Full Stop. In the scenario as outlined, the strike has succeeded beyond the wildest dreams of the IJN. There is even less reason to linger and endanger the fleet (there is still a carrier unaccounted for, as well as U.S. subs) if the attacks picked off a couple of decks than there was IOTL and was was NO reason to do it IOTL.

The U.S still has the Saratoga in the Pacific (specifically in San Diego picking up her new aircraft), and the Yorktown readily available to move without impacting the immediate activites in the Atlantic. The only major immediate impact is that the Wake relief mission doesn't happen, although there is a chance that Wasp isn't used to ferry aircraft to Malta ITTL with the potential butterflies of that to be considered. The Dolittle raid almost certainly isn't attempted, that butterflies away Midway. The big showdown is now in the Solomons (ruining the HS history questions about Midway) or perhaps in the Marianas.

End result? Hiroshima is destroyed by a nuclear weapon in early August, followed a couple days later by a second Japanese city (probably Kokura, depending on weather). The Soviets declare war on Japan sometime in early August with the war ending via Unconditional Surrender by the end of September.
 

Neroon

Banned
I think there's is one way this might have longer-term consequences than most here think, even beyond WW2:
Without the U.S. carriers distinguishing themselves fighting the war along instead of as mere support ships for battleships. The battleship admirals might be listened to longer instead of being finally clearly proven wrong. It's not like they didn't try to argue away the significance of PH in OTL hard enough as it is. Without the example of the aftermath the dinosaurs might just have more success. Japan will still loose of course. Even if the U.S. builds less Carriers and more Battleships it'll still be outproducing Japan in Carriers and nukes will come along eventually. But the doctrinal butterflies might very well last into the Cold War.
 
^ But as soon as Japan's and America's navies face off, we'll see whose top trumps. Losing Saratoga and Enterprise would hurt, but not that much as when the Essex class came around the result, as its been stated, would be exactly the same. The Japanese navy was still battleship nuts, too - witness the building of Yamato and Musashi.
 
Indeed, even if the Japanese wins at Midway it still does not matter, the first ones of the Essexclass are still under construction and will come eventually.

IIRC some of the carriers at Pearl helped stop the Japanese at the Battle of the Coral Sea.

Even if, in the long run, the US grinds the Japanese underfoot, there might be some interesting short and medium-term effects.
 
Turtledove's Days of Infamy series sorta addresses this. The carriers aren't actually at Pearl but do launch a counter attack against Nagumo's fleet because it lingered to support a land invasion.

Both the Enterprise and Lexington were under radio silence though and couldn't coordinate their attacks and were both sunk.

The series is actually half way decent and plausible. Basiclly it has a lot more things go Japan's way and even that isn't enough against the massive US industy.
 
Which is why Turtledove's series is so stupid, not to mention historically dishonest. Sorry but Harry's pretty much forfeited my respect in his recent books.:(

Japan in the first several months of the war enjoyed a streak of luck which no sane commander would dare to hope for in a single battle, let alone an entire series of campaigns so giving them more is already entering the stage of 'every right decision on Japanese side stays, every wrong decision goes away, every shred of bad luck turns good for Japan and the reverse for everyone Japan is fighting'.

Not to mention that an invasion of Hawaii is quite literally impossible based on Japan's resources. Actually it WAS concluded that Japan could have launched a smaller invasion than in Turtledove's book but that would unfortunately have completely destroyed Japan as the entire plan for the Philipines, Malaya, Singapore and the Dutch East Indies would have had to have been set back a minimum of 90-120 days, losses off Hawaii permitting.
 
I always took that as being the moral of the book. Even if everything went insanely good for Japan, they still had no chance to win.

You want something as equally unrealistic sounding go look at the Texas Revolution. :p
 

CalBear

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Turtledove's Days of Infamy series sorta addresses this. The carriers aren't actually at Pearl but do launch a counter attack against Nagumo's fleet because it lingered to support a land invasion.

Both the Enterprise and Lexington were under radio silence though and couldn't coordinate their attacks and were both sunk.

The series is actually half way decent and plausible. Basiclly it has a lot more things go Japan's way and even that isn't enough against the massive US industy.

Turtledove has become a joke, sadly, because his early work was oft-times brilliant or at worst believable. Japan could not, on the best day it ever had, have INVADED Hawaii. Raided by air, sure, pulled some sort of Dieppe Raid, maybe. INVADED? Not a chance on Earth.

Might as well project them invading New Orleans, the chances are about the same, and you can get some gumbo while you're at it.

The American carriers were 1,500 miles or so apart on 12/7/41, both on high priority missions that took them away from Oahu. Had either carrier engaged the IJN it would have likely been lost, it is unlikely, however, that the Japanese airwings would have survived two separate attacks (look at the air wing losses suffered by the JNAF in virtually every encounter with USN Task Forces and you'll understand what I mean), especially when their carriers ran out of fuel and sat bobbing in the North Pacific waiting, along with their escorts, for the American subs to come out for some target practice.
 

Markus

Banned
Turtledove has become a joke, sadly, because his early work was oft-times brilliant or at worst believable.

Like permanently stationing CVs at ONE loaction. Christ, that is exactly not the way to use CVs.


especially when their carriers ran out of fuel and sat bobbing in the North Pacific waiting, along with their escorts, for the American subs to come out for some target practice.

Given the *cough* quality *cough* of their fishes it would be target practice only. :D
 
IIRC some of the carriers at Pearl helped stop the Japanese at the Battle of the Coral Sea.

Even if, in the long run, the US grinds the Japanese underfoot, there might be some interesting short and medium-term effects.

An attempted invasion of Australia might be an interesting short term side effect.

Considering the sheer size of the place, that would possibly be the quagmire Japanese would drown in... but it might tie down a significant Australian and US land force there. Might affect the island hopping, or more importantly, the plans for Overlord.
 

CalBear

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Like permanently stationing CVs at ONE loaction. Christ, that is exactly not the way to use CVs.




Given the *cough* quality *cough* of their fishes it would be target practice only. :D

Hey,

Roughly 1 in 6 worked!;)
 
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